***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Waffledynamics
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6:42p, 7/19/22
AG
Quote:
US NatSec council official John Kirby: U.S. to send more HIMARS to Ukraine. Ukrainians have been using the systems very effectively, according to Kirby
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-july-us-natsec-council-official-john-kirby-us-to-send

HIMARS: give it to 'em.


Quote:
Ukraine has the right to go on the counter-offensive against Russia forces in their own country and the US will provide "the tools and the training" for them to do that, says Kirby
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-july-ukraine-has-the-right-to-go-on-the-counteroffensive
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Waffledynamics
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6:45p, 7/19/22
AG




Sounds like Iran is falling in line. Any pre-emptive ways to prepare for their suicide drones they're undoubtedly handing to Russia?
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agent-maroon
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 6:56p, 7/19/22
AG
Iran never favors ordinary people to be afflicted by wars. Terrorism directed at ordinary citizens designed for maximum shock value? Sure, but never conventional war...

Say what you want about those *******s but they've been consistent for over 40 years
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:31p, 7/19/22
AG
That may keep KSA on the sidelines regarding BRICS
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Waffledynamics
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7:32p, 7/19/22
AG
Quote:
American P-8 surveillance planes will fly over Bulgarian Black Sea territorial waters as part of new Bulgaria-based "Breeze" exercise, instead of the canceled Ukraine-based Sea Breeze exercise
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-july-american-p8-surveillance-planes-will-fly-over-bulgarian
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Ag In Ok • 7:33p, 7/19/22
AG
Interesting point. That may indeed throw cold water on that deal and may have geopolitical implications relevant to Ukraine. I wonder if you would see Saudi Arabian support for either side of this conflict.
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Waffledynamics
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8:48p, 7/19/22
AG
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Waffledynamics
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9:36p, 7/19/22
AG
Just wanted to make a quick note, by the way, that it seems like there's been some more activity on this thread from other users who have gained interest. I'm thankful for the attention to this conflict, as it is truly a historic one happening before our very eyes. This is perhaps the most well-documented war (in real time) in the world's history. This involves two relatively modern militaries duking it out, with one punching well above its weight.

If you find meaningful information on Twitter, Telegram, LiveUaMap, etc., definitely post it and contribute to the knowledge gathering in this thread. It is invaluable. The same goes for pertinent questions and discussion--we all have it.

No matter what the naysayers on this board say on other threads, this one is invaluable. Many thanks to Eliminatus for starting it. Thanks to Staff for curating it.
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docb
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11:48p, 7/19/22
AG
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3532844-white-house-announces-new-himars-systems-for-ukraine.html

More HIMARS headed to Ukraine.
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Eliminatus
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 11:49p, 7/19/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Just wanted to make a quick note, by the way, that it seems like there's been some more activity on this thread from other users who have gained interest. I'm thankful for the attention to this conflict, as it is truly a historic one happening before our very eyes. This is perhaps the most well-documented war (in real time) in the world's history. This involves two relatively modern militaries duking it out, with one punching well above its weight.

If you find meaningful information on Twitter, Telegram, LiveUaMap, etc., definitely post it and contribute to the knowledge gathering in this thread. It is invaluable. The same goes for pertinent questions and discussion--we all have it.

No matter what the naysayers on this board say on other threads, this one is invaluable. Many thanks to Eliminatus for starting it. Thanks to Staff for curating it.


Aye. This is a big damned deal for sure. It sounds dramatic and self serving for us "Uke fanbois" (lol at that btw) but I truly believe we are witnessing a massive shift in world history in real time. The Boogeyman of several generations has finally been exposed to be the monster we have always known it to be and yet somehow it has been proven to be a paper monster at large. (With all deference to the Ukes struggling against it of course.)

I have started a new career and can't be as active as I used to be due to time but still read every post and appreciate everyone's contributions here.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 1:15a, 7/20/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:

Looks like Ukraine hit some Russian radar along the coast, approximately 61 km South of Kherson.

Quote:
Russian radar 48Ya6-K1 Podlyot-K1 was destroyed near Skadovsk
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-july-russian-radar-48ya6k1-podlyotk1-was-destroyed-near


That's a big ****ing deal. WAY bigger than knocking down something like an SU-35. That radar entered service in 2015 and has a ~350 mile range. You're talking like 8-9 figures in hardware lost there, plus it was probably looking at all of southern Ukraine. It's an early warning system that's supposed to be able to track just about anything in difficult or denied environments, and I believe it's supposed to integrate with or be a part of the S-400.

Looking at the pictures, it looks like they may have hit some other vehicles too. Maybe command and control stations. This will probably seriously cripple Russian air defense for a little bit.
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PJYoung
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2:45a, 7/20/22
AG
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benchmark
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 6:27a, 7/20/22
AG
ABATTBQ11 said:
That's a big ****ing deal. WAY bigger than knocking down something like an SU-35. That radar entered service in 2015 and has a ~350 mile range. You're talking like 8-9 figures in hardware lost there, plus it was probably looking at all of southern Ukraine. It's an early warning system that's supposed to be able to track just about anything in difficult or denied environments, and I believe it's supposed to integrate with or be a part of the S-400.
Exactly. I wouldn't want to be the Russian general that failed to move this system out of HIMAR range. Also a perfect example why ATACMS are needed for similar systems that are out of range.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to benchmark • 6:48a, 7/20/22
AG
I read there are 6 of those radars ever made, that is a huge deal. Especially with the supply chain issues of high tech equipment. Thinking a general will be floating in a Russian river in the near future
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benchmark
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6:48a, 7/20/22
AG
Hopium addicts are common in the West ... but Dopium is the drug of choice in Russia. Yesterday's ISW assessment is definitely worth a read.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 19
Quote:
Calls among Russian nationalist and pro-war voices for Russian President Vladimir Putin to expand Russia's war aims, mobilize the state fully for war, and drop the pretext that Russia is not engaged in a war reached a crescendo on July 19.

Former Russian militant commander and nationalist milblogger Igor Girkin presented an extensive list of military, economic, and political actions that he argues the Kremlin must take to win the war in Ukraine; first among this list is abandoning the rhetoric of the "special military operation" and defining the official goals of the war in Ukraine.[1] Girkin advocated for expansive territorial aims beyond the Kremlin's stated ambitions in Donbas, including the reunification of the entire territory of "Novorossiya" (which Girkin maintains includes Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts as well as Kryvyi Rih) with the Russian Federation and the creation of a Malorossiya state (all of Ukraine up to the Polish border), which Girkin claims should be reunified with Russia through the Russia-Belarus Union State. Girkin also called for the Kremlin to shift the Russian economy fully to a war footing and to carry out extensive mobilization measures including forced conscription and the (further) suspension of Russians' rights.[2] Girkin has often criticized what he views as a lack of ambition and decisive action in the Kremlin's handling of the war in Ukraine through his calls for maximalist objectives and measures to support territorial gains. His newest list of demands adds to the growing discontent within the Russian pro-war nationalist zeitgeist.[3]
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74OA
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6:49a, 7/20/22
AG
"Ukrainian forces have struck and seriously damaged a bridge that is key for supplying Russian troops in southern Ukraine, a regional official said Wednesday.

Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Moscow-backed temporary administration for the Russian-controlled southern Kherson region, said the Ukrainian military struck the Antonivskyi Bridge, which crosses the Dnieper River, with missiles Wednesday, scoring 11 hits."

BRIDGE
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aezmvp
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In reply to 74OA • 7:03a, 7/20/22
74OA said:
"Ukrainian forces have struck and seriously damaged a bridge that is key for supplying Russian troops in southern Ukraine, a regional official said Wednesday.

Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Moscow-backed temporary administration for the Russian-controlled southern Kherson region, said the Ukrainian military struck the Antonivskyi Bridge, which crosses the Dnieper River, with missiles Wednesday, scoring 11 hits."

BRIDGE
Sounds like practice.
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benchmark
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In reply to 74OA • 7:09a, 7/20/22
AG
74OA said:
Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Moscow-backed temporary administration for the Russian-controlled southern Kherson region, said the Ukrainian military struck the Antonivskyi Bridge, which crosses the Dnieper River, with missiles Wednesday, scoring 11 hits."
It will be interested to see pics of the damage using 200 lb warheads. Here's a pic from yesterdays artillery damage (95 lb rounds).
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to aezmvp • 7:10a, 7/20/22
AG
They said the bridge is closed for quick repairs and you can cross using a bridge 50 miles away. Couple that with Russia having to pull back staging areas and it sounds like the Ukes need to mount an offensive soon

Some F16s with 2000 pound JDAMs would be nice right now
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aezmvp
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 7:19a, 7/20/22
P.U.T.U said:
They said the bridge is closed for quick repairs and you can cross using a bridge 50 miles away. Couple that with Russia having to pull back staging areas and it sounds like the Ukes need to mount an offensive soon

Some F16s with 2000 pound JDAMs would be nice right now
Wouldn't want to be that pilot but you're not wrong. My guess is that they should keep some of those Russians on the West side of the Dnieper to pin down as much as possible prior to an offensive. I'm hoping they're going to get going soon and are successful but it's a lot and they'll only get one shot.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 7:48a, 7/20/22
AG
Or an SLCM/ALCM
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black_ice
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In reply to aezmvp • 7:49a, 7/20/22
aezmvp said:
P.U.T.U said:
They said the bridge is closed for quick repairs and you can cross using a bridge 50 miles away. Couple that with Russia having to pull back staging areas and it sounds like the Ukes need to mount an offensive soon

Some F16s with 2000 pound JDAMs would be nice right now
Wouldn't want to be that pilot but you're not wrong. My guess is that they should keep some of those Russians on the West side of the Dnieper to pin down as much as possible prior to an offensive. I'm hoping they're going to get going soon and are successful but it's a lot and they'll only get one shot.


One shot Johnny
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Not a Bot
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8:08a, 7/20/22
AG
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benchmark
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8:37a, 7/20/22
AG
Here ya go ... results of HIMAR attack on the Antonovsky bridge.
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AlaskanAg99
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In reply to Not a Bot • 8:48a, 7/20/22
AG
Private PoopyPants said:
That's just crazy! RU is barely making any headway, with the HIMARS destroying ammo dumps in the backfield they must be banking on energy starvation of the EU result in a wholesale abandonment of support for Ukraine.

Which means Putin will not turn the tap back on for Nordstream I. It's absolute brinkmanship.

This just underscores that Putin believes taking the entirety of Ukraine is the survival of Russia.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to AlaskanAg99 • 8:59a, 7/20/22
AG
Quote:
That's just crazy! RU is barely making any headway, with the HIMARS destroying ammo dumps in the backfield they must be banking on energy starvation of the EU result in a wholesale abandonment of support for Ukraine.

Which means Putin will not turn the tap back on for Nordstream I. It's absolute brinkmanship.

This just underscores that Putin believes taking the entirety of Ukraine is the survival of Russia.
But they can't hold it. Making their naval bases in the Black Sea targets, they lose supremacy on the Black Sea. That's a lot of Russian coastline to protect. Will they have the air and radar assets to do that without their Navy?
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Bulldog73
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In reply to AlaskanAg99 • 9:33a, 7/20/22
AG
AlaskanAg99 said:
Private PoopyPants said:
That's just crazy! RU is barely making any headway, with the HIMARS destroying ammo dumps in the backfield they must be banking on energy starvation of the EU result in a wholesale abandonment of support for Ukraine.

Which means Putin will not turn the tap back on for Nordstream I. It's absolute brinkmanship.

This just underscores that Putin believes taking the entirety of Ukraine is the survival of Russia.
First of all, the Russians never had their objectives limited to the eastern provinces; all of the Black Sea coast, Kharkiv and the eastern half of the country was always the objective, as well as regime change in Kyiv.

Second, this is simply the leftist tactic of doubling down. Never accept a defeat, just double down and raise the stakes. The orcs have big balls and little brains, and they play to win.
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AlaskanAg99
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9:34a, 7/20/22
AG
Fox News reporting the Chechen's may open a 2nd front. Russia is weak and as they draw resources from other areas to support their BS in Ukraine, this may start getting hot elsewhere.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to AlaskanAg99 • 9:38a, 7/20/22
AG
AlaskanAg99 said:
Fox News reporting the Chechen's may open a 2nd front. Russia is weak and as they draw resources from other areas to support their BS in Ukraine, this may start getting hot elsewhere.
Hope so. Unintended consequences strike again.
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fullback44
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In reply to AlaskanAg99 • 9:58a, 7/20/22
AG
AlaskanAg99 said:
Fox News reporting the Chechen's may open a 2nd front. Russia is weak and as they draw resources from other areas to support their BS in Ukraine, this may start getting hot elsewhere.
Putin faces second war front as Chechens threaten new offensive in Russia (msn.com)

attached is the FOX article if people want to read it.
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AlaskanAg99
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10:08a, 7/20/22
AG
Hard to know if Russia is bluffing, but they haven't slowed down in sending men and material into the meat grinder.

The longer this goes on, the worse Europe will be overall. Imagine breaking the EU without ever getting into a direct war. Energy and food limits will crush Europe, the US will only have a limited ability to back fill those needs (and other needs world wide) without causing great suffering at home.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to fullback44 • 10:09a, 7/20/22
AG
Seems like wishful thinking, but at least of would give the Russians and Kadyrov some pause.
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GAC06
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In reply to benchmark • 10:16a, 7/20/22
AG
benchmark said:
Here ya go ... results of HIMAR attack on the Antonovsky bridge.


Turns out inertially guided missiles can hit a bridge just fine. Imagine that.
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Ag8556
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In reply to benchmark • 10:21a, 7/20/22
AG
I wonder how effective another round of artillery rounds would be now that the bridge structure has some holes and cracking in the span. I would think you would at least cause existing cracks in the span to run farther from their initial starting point.

At the very least, it could create more structural damage to make a 2nd round of HIMARs strikes even more effective.
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Eliminatus
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In reply to AlaskanAg99 • 10:34a, 7/20/22
AG
AlaskanAg99 said:
Fox News reporting the Chechen's may open a 2nd front. Russia is weak and as they draw resources from other areas to support their BS in Ukraine, this may start getting hot elsewhere.


Wait, the implication of your post is the Chechens will open up a front AGAINST Russia?
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