LMCane said:
BusterAg said:
Hoof Hearted89 said:
RogerEnright said:
Hoof Hearted89 said:
1) Ukr doesn't have ~10 years. This strategy will require a LOT of time during which Russia will be mutilating the land and people under their dominion.
2) The "West" does not have the "long haul" persistence to see this war extend beyond a year or so. The amount of interest and media coverage has fallen 80%(?) in the last two weeks.
3) unlike China to NVA in the '70's, Ukr doesn't have a Superpower on their border to back/support them.
4) simply stated, Russia can outlast Ukr for supplies/resources.
Interesting and your comment certainly has me rethinking my Afghanistan / Russian invasion mental model. I was suggesting Russia / Afghanistan was more in my thinking than Vietnam. Although, in Afg / Russian war, Afghanistan didn't have a neighbor Superpower. It has been a while, but I doubt the media was tied to it during the whole period, yet the US continued the supply of goods.
Quote:
So what does need to happen?
Ukr needs to get the Russians OUT of the country. That includes Donbas, Crimea and the entirety of the southern coast. If that doesn't happen quickly, I believe the cost in human terms (both organically and financially) will rise exponentially the more weeks/months the Russians are "guests."
My concern is that this may be a tough task.
I shared your view, full of hope that Ukr might simply "wear them down" w/ Vn/Afg serving as historical models and predecessors to success. While Afg did not have a superpower neighbor, their Rocky Mountain-esque/arid topography acted like one it (topography acted as a delimiter of enemy advantage; zero help w/ Afg resupply). Both Russian and US resupply were strained severely. The US is simply far better at the TO&E (supplies) side of warfare than Russia.
What I saw first hand was a Biblical level of incompetence (Russia) but unfortunately I didn't also see a Biblical level of Divine intervention resulting in Israel's enemy being smitten (think: the entire book of Judges).
Opinion: Ukr just "feels different" to me. Remember that Vn/Afg expended very few supplies but exacted significant pain over time to US/Russia (aka guerilla warfare or more recently, asymmetrical fighting). Ukr is expending SIGNIFICANT stores of ammo and I don't see any way they can possibly keep up with Russia from a supplies standpoint. I believe Ukr needs a Ukr version of Battle of the Bulge…but one that is successful. A rapid/lightning strike that separates Russian troops from resupply and the has the fortitude to eliminate or capture large swaths of personnel/equipment as well as repatriation of Ukr lands.
So, if you can read between the lines of that last paragraph, I agree w/ you that success may be difficult to grasp for the Ukrs. Clearly, I am hoping for a near miraculous ending. But frontline troops have no reserves to rotate in/out of danger. I am concerned that if something significant doesn't happen quickly…blah blah.
The miracle that I am hoping for is Putin dying. That could throw a wrench into everything.
Petrashev is likely even worse when it comes to wanting to expand the Russian Empire.
be careful that the next guy in line isn't even worse than the current guy!
I would think if Putin were assassinated it would be by people in power that see this invasion as detrimental. They would also be aware of those individuals who are as aggressive, if not more aggressive, than Putin in the desire to expand their sphere of control and take appropriate actions to neuter these people.
I could be wrong probably am.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
