***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,810,508 Views | 48284 Replies | Last: 19 min ago by PJYoung
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Ukrainian military destroyed Russian military warehouses near railway station in Kherson
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-july-ukrainian-military-destroyed-russian-military-warehouses


Quote:

Explosions are military base near Kyselivka, Kherson region
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-july-explosions-are-military-base-near-kyselivka-kherson

Quote:

Russian offensive attempt near Lozove failed, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-july-russian-offensive-attempt-near-lozove-failed---general

Quote:

Missile destroyed a house in Skadovsk
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-july-missile-destroyed-a-house-in-skadovsk




Quote:

Ukrainian military shot down 2 Russian Kalibr missiles over Mykolaiv region

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-july-ukrainian-military-shot-down-2-russian-kalibr-missiles

This is all in the Kherson region.
Waffledynamics
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Over in Donetsk, Russia claims to have taken out a couple of HIMARS.

Quote:

Russian Ministry of Defence claims destroying 2 HIMARS launchers at Malotaranivka in Donetsk region and 2 warehouses with ammunition
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-july-russian-ministry-of-defence-claims-destroying-2-himars

Ukraine denies this:

Quote:

Ukrainian general staff denies Russian claim that HIMARS launchers were destroyed

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-july-ukrainian-general-staff-denies-russian-claim-that
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Russian army remotely deployed mines near Shestakove and Peremoha, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-july-russian-army-remotely-deployed-mines-near-shestakove

This is up in the Kharkiv region. Looks like they're afraid of a Ukrainian advance.

74OA
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Russia increasingly worried about an attack on the key KERCH BRIDGE.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Ukrainian air defence shot down Russian Kh-31 missile, launched by Su-35 over Black Sea near Odesa
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-july-ukrainian-air-defence-shot-down-russian-kh31-missile

Not sure if Ukraine is doing better at shooting down these missiles or if they're missing just as many. Good to see this kind of note pop up though.

It seems like there have been more frequent alerts on LiveUaMap about intercepted missiles in the Odessa area lately.
Waffledynamics
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Paging aggiehawg. I believe she was hoping for developments against that bridge a lot earlier in the thread.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Independent defense analyst H I Sutton, or @CovertShores on Twitter, reported on the findings Monday, July 4, detailing that two target barges coming from Novorossiysk Naval Base had been towed to the location and moored on the east side of the bridge. He went on to note that the vessels were covered with multiple radar reflectors, which are metallic devices that are affixed to a barge in order to make it more visible to radar. Sutton used the term 'target barges' to identify the ships because the Russian Navy is known to have utilized such vessels as targets during exercises with the Black Sea Fleet. Now, it appears their intended purpose could be to act as decoys, confusing incoming missiles aimed at Kerch Bridge. Other radar reflectors were also seen affixed to the shallows near the bridge. It isn't clear if these were part of the countermeasures or navigational features.
Is a manual override possible so someone can fly it like they would fly a drone, thereby rendering the radar confusion pointless?
92AG10
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It would be irrelevant if the guidance system is GPS based or it relies on a laser designator.
74OA
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The real limiting factor for a successful attack on the Kerch Bridge at the moment is Ukraine doesn't have a weapon with the range, precision and a sufficiently large/appropriate warhead to do serious damage, except for a suicide attack aircraft mission.

Two out of three won't cut it.....

aggiehawg
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Waffledynamics said:

Paging aggiehawg. I believe she was hoping for developments against that bridge a lot earlier in the thread.
Just sitting back, watching and waiting.
74OA
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"Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics."

TRAINS
JFABNRGR
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Surprised they have not hit the temporary bridges or locomotives loaded with supplies directly.

We know they have hit at least 8 ammo dumps and one major C&C center.

What will be the next priority targets for the long range artillery?
ADA, TOS, Comms, allowing them to be more effective with their limited air power?
AlaskanAg99
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Assume we're not seeing everything..

Assume they have to be judicious with their limited supplies.

Maybe they're waiting to.catch an ammo train on a bridge, that's a 3 for 1 target. All while dodging the enemy as well.
benchmark
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74OA said:

"Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics."

TRAINS
Great read. Thanks for sharing. Russian artillery superiority has been a game changer recently. This is where GMLRS can make a pivotal difference. Here's his related thread unrolled Truck Logistics.
Quote:

Russian ammo trains in range of GMLRS are a whole lot easier to find & strike than tactical trucks. Plus, when detonated, extensive train clearance & EOD removal will have to happen before the rail lines line can be used again. GMLRS means Russian logistics is hosed.
22/End
ABATTBQ11
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JFABNRGR said:

Surprised they have not hit the temporary bridges or locomotives loaded with supplies directly.

We know they have hit at least 8 ammo dumps and one major C&C center.

What will be the next priority targets for the long range artillery?
ADA, TOS, Comms, allowing them to be more effective with their limited air power?



Maybe they have

But another thing to consider is you need to know when a train will be where well beforehand to hit it with artillery or MLRS. You need time to get to firing positions, set up, fire, and have your rounds travel. If you start moving when the train pulls into the station, you'll be late by the time the rounds get there. Russian trains are likely not on set schedules for this very reason, though if anyone were stupid enough to have ammo trains running on time, it would be the Russians.

I think they'll continue to hit C2 and logistics.
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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From Kherson region a couple of days ago.





Waffledynamics
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Not sure if accurate or propaganda.

TRM
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ABATTBQ11 said:

JFABNRGR said:

Surprised they have not hit the temporary bridges or locomotives loaded with supplies directly.

We know they have hit at least 8 ammo dumps and one major C&C center.

What will be the next priority targets for the long range artillery?
ADA, TOS, Comms, allowing them to be more effective with their limited air power?



Maybe they have

But another thing to consider is you need to know when a train will be where well beforehand to hit it with artillery or MLRS. You need time to get to firing positions, set up, fire, and have your rounds travel. If you start moving when the train pulls into the station, you'll be late by the time the rounds get there. Russian trains are likely not on set schedules for this very reason, though if anyone were stupid enough to have ammo trains running on time, it would be the Russians.

I think they'll continue to hit C2 and logistics.
I want to say much like their trucks, I believe all the Russian trains are loaded and unloaded by hand.
EastSideAg2002
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TRM said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

JFABNRGR said:

Surprised they have not hit the temporary bridges or locomotives loaded with supplies directly.

We know they have hit at least 8 ammo dumps and one major C&C center.

What will be the next priority targets for the long range artillery?
ADA, TOS, Comms, allowing them to be more effective with their limited air power?



Maybe they have

But another thing to consider is you need to know when a train will be where well beforehand to hit it with artillery or MLRS. You need time to get to firing positions, set up, fire, and have your rounds travel. If you start moving when the train pulls into the station, you'll be late by the time the rounds get there. Russian trains are likely not on set schedules for this very reason, though if anyone were stupid enough to have ammo trains running on time, it would be the Russians.

I think they'll continue to hit C2 and logistics.
I want to say much like their trucks, I believe all the Russian trains are loaded and unloaded by hand.
According to that article they do it by hand.
74OA
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Waffledynamics said:

Over in Donetsk, Russia claims to have taken out a couple of HIMARS.

Quote:

Russian Ministry of Defence claims destroying 2 HIMARS launchers at Malotaranivka in Donetsk region and 2 warehouses with ammunition
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-july-russian-ministry-of-defence-claims-destroying-2-himars

Ukraine denies this:

Quote:

Ukrainian general staff denies Russian claim that HIMARS launchers were destroyed

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-july-ukrainian-general-staff-denies-russian-claim-that
MORE
Waffledynamics
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For anyone who has seen Denys Davydov's videos, this is the map he's been using. Interestingly, it identifies the Russian brigades, divisions, regiments, etc. in certain areas. Just click on the icons, and it will tell you who is where. It will even give you some troop movements directions.

https://deepstatemap.live/en#7/49.396/34.973

Also, clicking the fire icon in the lower left-hand corner shows "fires". I'm not sure if this is literally fire, or if it's locations that have been fired upon by artillery, or both. Either way, you get a sense of the huge usage in the East.
AgLA06
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If that map is correct, Crimea is just begging for an end around launched from Nikopol due south.
JFABNRGR
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74OA said:

Waffledynamics said:

Over in Donetsk, Russia claims to have taken out a couple of HIMARS.

Quote:

Russian Ministry of Defence claims destroying 2 HIMARS launchers at Malotaranivka in Donetsk region and 2 warehouses with ammunition
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-july-russian-ministry-of-defence-claims-destroying-2-himars

Ukraine denies this:

Quote:

Ukrainian general staff denies Russian claim that HIMARS launchers were destroyed

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-july-ukrainian-general-staff-denies-russian-claim-that
MORE


Hopefully UKR is spending some investment in HIMAR fakes colocated with advanced ADA as they have become obvious priority targets.
aggiehawg
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Quote:

Hopefully UKR is spending some investment in HIMAR fakes colocated with advanced ADA as they have become obvious priority targets.
Can I get a translation on that? TIA.
74OA
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aggiehawg said:

Quote:

Hopefully UKR is spending some investment in HIMAR fakes colocated with advanced ADA as they have become obvious priority targets.
Can I get a translation on that? TIA.
Bait a flak trap with a HIMARS look-alike.
aggiehawg
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Oh. Thanks.
Waffledynamics
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Ag In Ok
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From operation Fortitude
74OA
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Men were real men back then.
ABATTBQ11
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TRM said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

JFABNRGR said:

Surprised they have not hit the temporary bridges or locomotives loaded with supplies directly.

We know they have hit at least 8 ammo dumps and one major C&C center.

What will be the next priority targets for the long range artillery?
ADA, TOS, Comms, allowing them to be more effective with their limited air power?



Maybe they have

But another thing to consider is you need to know when a train will be where well beforehand to hit it with artillery or MLRS. You need time to get to firing positions, set up, fire, and have your rounds travel. If you start moving when the train pulls into the station, you'll be late by the time the rounds get there. Russian trains are likely not on set schedules for this very reason, though if anyone were stupid enough to have ammo trains running on time, it would be the Russians.

I think they'll continue to hit C2 and logistics.
I want to say much like their trucks, I believe all the Russian trains are loaded and unloaded by hand.


You can do almost anything with enough manpower, including unload a train in an hour or two. That's probably not enough time to communicate arrival, move and deploy artillery from staging areas, setup, and fire.
aggiehawg
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Quote:

You can do almost anything with enough manpower, including unload a train in an hour or two. That's probably not enough time to communicate arrival, move and deploy artillery from staging areas, setup, and fire.
Why not? Where the railway is located is a static location. Where it can stop to be unloaded is fairly static as well, isn't it?

Confused.
Jetpilot86
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True, but the artillery can't be.
74OA
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74OA said:

Eliminatus said:

74OA said:

Waffledynamics said:

Wait, what does this mean, exactly? The Ukrainian bureaucracy was getting in the way of reinforcements, or is it related to martial law?
Quote:

President Zelensky demands explanation from General Staff on prohibition of movements of men between regions without enrollment office approval. Asks not to make such decisions without him
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/5-july-president-zelensky-demands-explanation-from-general
Perhaps the military wants to restrict the travel of men attempting to evade military service. Or perhaps it is concerned about Russian sympathizers traveling the country gathering intel on Ukrainian military dispositions. <shrug>
Old system of full accountability before movement is probably my guess. I am sure it is necessary in some regards but when it gets in the way of tactical deployments in time critical operations.....

As above, I suspect that it is just red tape that is not conducive to flexibility when it is needed most. I imagine the turnover rates of frontline units are enormous and expected reinforcements are not reaching the units in time.

My take at least.
Perhaps. I doubt the general staff is impeding the movement of military units or reinforcements, but control over civilian movement is generally a routine security requirement in any active theater of war. That's what this feels like to me because Zelensky has reportedly been very hands-off on strictly military matters since this thing started. Knowing what the "enrollment office's" mission is would likely answer the question.
DW reporting:
"Ukrainian military lifts registration requirement in U-turn
The Ukrainian military has lifted a restriction on conscripts that required them to obtain permission if they wanted to leave their registered place of residence.
The order was rescinded a day after it was announced, following widespread criticism that also saw President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speak out against the measure.
Under the regulation, men aged between 18 and 60 would have needed permission from their local military enlistment office to leave the district where they are registered. Many Ukrainians don't live in their place of registration.
Zelenskyy said that this decision had caused "incomprehension" and "outrage" in Ukrainian society and promised that he would "figure it out."
74OA
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Update: DW
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