The ammo dumps going up in blazes is nice and all, but how does Ukraine stop or even slow Russia's advances in the East? It doesn't seem like they have the capability at the moment to take anything back, much less hold it.

Things have definitely shifted in Russia's favor the last few weeks.

What if I told you the East is a feint to fix the Russians so the Ukes could take the south?

Waffledynamics said:

---

The ammo dumps going up in blazes is nice and all, but how does Ukraine stop or even slow Russia's advances in the East? It doesn't seem like they have the capability at the moment to take anything back, much less hold it.

Things have definitely shifted in Russia's favor the last few weeks.

---

They've held most of the line in the east for several months now. The gains have come from Russia throwing a ton of resources in a small area. It's not clear if Russia is capable of succeeding in any other way. Russia has had best held, and in a number of cases, slowly lost ground where they've not consolidated so many resources.

No indications Ukraine can take back the east at this point, certainly. But no indications Russia can execute the war on a broader scale

Waffledynamics said:

---

The ammo dumps going up in blazes is nice and all, but how does Ukraine stop or even slow Russia's advances in the East? It doesn't seem like they have the capability at the moment to take anything back, much less hold it.

Things have definitely shifted in Russia's favor the last few weeks.

---

Love trading a few MLRS precision strikes for an entire ammo site. 20-30 more hits like this could really start to sting the Ruskies.

Russians are already stung. They're all-in, which makes them very difficult to defeat. However, the new precision offensive hardware is going to gut them. Just imagine how much Intel is being fed to them from behind enemy lines. Plus all western Intel feeding their strikes.

And all the 'fresh units' being sent in are increasingly poorly trained.

Celebrating the 4th in Snezhnoye.

In the occupied city of Snezhnoye, a warehouse with military equipment is on fire.🔥🔥🔥#Ukraine #UkraineWar #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukrainian pic.twitter.com/S49rxarL3p

— 🇺🇦Ukraine News Live🇺🇦 (@UkraineNewsLive) July 4, 2022

AlaskanAg99 said:

---

Russians are already stung. They're all-in, which makes them very difficult to defeat. However, the new precision offensive hardware is going to gut them. Just imagine how much Intel is being fed to them from behind enemy lines. Plus all western Intel feeding their strikes.

And all the 'fresh units' being sent in are increasingly poorly trained.

---

I read this, but then I notice more Russian success than the earlier parts of the war.

Ukraine doesn't seem to be able to pierce the lines in the other parts of the country. Perhaps this is due to manpower and resource allocation. I just don't see many gashes being struck.

TXAggie2011 said:

---

Waffledynamics said:

---

The ammo dumps going up in blazes is nice and all, but how does Ukraine stop or even slow Russia's advances in the East? It doesn't seem like they have the capability at the moment to take anything back, much less hold it.

Things have definitely shifted in Russia's favor the last few weeks.

---

They've held most of the line in the east for several months now. The gains have come from Russia throwing a ton of resources in a small area. It's not clear if Russia is capable of succeeding in any other way. Russia has had best held, and in a number of cases, slowly lost ground where they've not consolidated so many resources.

No indications Ukraine can take back the east at this point, certainly. But no indications Russia can execute the war on a broader scale

---

Why is Ukraine not able to take advantage of such a massing of resources? Is it just that they are massing resources the best they can in the same area? That would be my guess. They just don't seem to be cutting into other, weaker fronts as well, and are holding or making slow progress at best.

Might be waiting for a winter war?

Depends really on when resources are landing.

If Russia continues to 'win' slowly but at an massive cost.... how long can they sustain that pace before they collapse?

Waffledynamics said:

---

TXAggie2011 said:

---

Waffledynamics said:

---

The ammo dumps going up in blazes is nice and all, but how does Ukraine stop or even slow Russia's advances in the East? It doesn't seem like they have the capability at the moment to take anything back, much less hold it.

Things have definitely shifted in Russia's favor the last few weeks.

---

They've held most of the line in the east for several months now. The gains have come from Russia throwing a ton of resources in a small area. It's not clear if Russia is capable of succeeding in any other way. Russia has had best held, and in a number of cases, slowly lost ground where they've not consolidated so many resources.

No indications Ukraine can take back the east at this point, certainly. But no indications Russia can execute the war on a broader scale

---

Why is Ukraine not able to take advantage of such a massing of resources? Is it just that they are massing resources the best they can in the same area? That would be my guess. They just don't seem to be cutting into other, weaker fronts as well, and are holding or making slow progress at best.

---

I think that's a fair question. I think at the end of day, Ukraine doesn't have the same resources to mass, even with the help they are receiving. How Ukraine decides when they want to retreat and when they want to fight and take out as many Russians with them as they can…I'm glad I'm not making those choices

But I we've got to see how it goes now that Ukraine has some new capabilities. Russia had been able to "adapt" in a way that's not allowed Ukraine to fight like they did in February and March…and there was a lengthy lull where Ukraine wasn't really adding capabilities in order for them to respond to Russia's changing strategy and goals. Ukraine's now able to get at logistics and command and control behind the lines again, that'll be a new test for Russia.


I put "adapt" in quotes because Russia really just scaled everything back and moved to a really unsophisticated way of waging war.

This continues to be the strangest war to me.

All of the original concern with the USA being too involved has seemed to melted away. After emptying our stored antique manpads from storage this administration is giving more lethal arms and missile systems in small numbers and limiting the range of those missile systems.

Ukraine being able to sink some key ships and Russia retaking ground that they lost. Russia supposedly as his with sanctions that initially looked like they were going to be effective…….doesn't seem to be effective now.

Waffledynamics said:

---

NEW: Turkey detained a Russian cargo ship carrying grain which Ukraine says is stolen, Ukraine's ambassador to Turkey said on Sunday.

Ukraine had previously asked Turkey to detain the Russian-flagged Zhibek Zholy cargo ship

— Reuters

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) July 3, 2022

---

Good for Turkey if so.

I don't blame the country for extracting all it can from allowing new NATO members, especially since it likely feels like the odd man out in the alliance, but I hadn't placed much hope that it would be a positive force in its backyard.

benchmark said:

---

Waffledynamics said:

---

The ammo dumps going up in blazes is nice and all, but how does Ukraine stop or even slow Russia's advances in the East? It doesn't seem like they have the capability at the moment to take anything back, much less hold it.

Things have definitely shifted in Russia's favor the last few weeks.

---

In the last 5-6 days we've seen devastating GLRMS strikes on Perevalsk, Metropol, Propansa, and Snizhna. These are the strikes we know of - and with only 4 HIMARS. Within 3 months they'll have 17 of these launchers (M270 and M142) and they'll be able to snipe anything within their 50 mile range.

Imagine 4-5 deep strikes like these every day for a month ... that's got to hurt. Still, there are lots of questions - can they identify that many targets? Will this capability allow a legit Uke offensive? TBD.

---

I'm with you here. There is definitely a significant opportunity developing with the HIMARS, that the Ukes did not have prior. I think this trend of deep strikes into ammo/equipment storage will only accelerate.

And the reality is that keeping these sites secretive will be very hard to do. I'm sure there are numerous transfer/transit visits to rearm which can be identified by combined aerial and low level intel from ground operatives.

Keep destroying these sites and the Russians will be forced to divide them into smaller dumps or relocate further back, impacting transit time to the front line.

Light em up Ukes!

Quote:

---

Ammunition warehouse of Russian forces exploded at Yakovlivka village in Donetsk region

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-july-ammunition-warehouse-of-russian-forces-exploded-at

⚡️В селищі Яковлівка, що поблизу Ясинуватої, знищений склад БК російських окупантів pic.twitter.com/CCGGFQzLP9

— ПРОСТО ЛЕРИЧ (@fantomasvvs1) July 4, 2022

Quote:

---

Fire at Schehlovka in Donetsk

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-july-fire-at-schehlovka-in-donetsk

#Донецк, очевидцы сообщают, что возгорание произошло на Щегловке на ул. Новороссийской в районе бывших парфюмерных складов "Эффект" на КПД https://t.co/7Ua4WzGCOO https://t.co/5VNBKoQgz3 pic.twitter.com/H2rSBIfMNb

— Necro Mancer (@666_mancer) July 4, 2022

Quote:

---

Fire at Hryhorivka/Hvardeiyka in Donetsk

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-july-fire-at-hryhorivkahvardeiyka-in-donetsk

Григорьевка, Гвардейка
Красивое pic.twitter.com/YxhFvh4R6o

— hochu domoy v UA (@hochu_dodomu) July 4, 2022

Quote:

---

Explosion of warehouse with ammunition in Snizhne

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-july-explosion-of-warehouse-with-ammunition-in-snizhne

Ще мінус склад з боєприпасами. Тепер в окупованому Сніжному pic.twitter.com/lmwaeOngxe

— Oleh Novikov 🇺🇦 (@olehbatkovych) July 4, 2022

Quote:

---

Video of explosions at Khimmash plant in Snizhne

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-july-video-of-explosions-at-khimmash-plant-in-snizhne

Снежное, химмаш pic.twitter.com/lL8czEuOyO

— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) July 4, 2022

You asked, and the Ukes delivered.

Posted overnight on LiveUaMap:

Quote:

---

At Pivdenny Buh and Tavriya direction Russian army attempted to regain positions in Ivanivka, Potyomkyne and Myrne, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-july-at-pivdenny-buh-and-tavriya-direction-russian-army

That is in the Kherson/Mykolaiv region.

Quote:

---

Russian forces conducting offensive actions near Vasylivka, Berestove, Spirne, Klynove and Mayorsk, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-july-russian-forces-conducting-offensive-actions-near-vasylivka

Quote:

---

At Kramatorsk direction Russian army crossed Siversky Donetsk, fortyfing at the areas of Lysychansk and Bilohorivka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-july-at-kramatorsk-direction-russian-army-crossed-siversky

Quote:

---

At Donetsk direction Russian forces pushing Ukrainian military to the line Siversk-Fedorivka-Bakhmut, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-july-at-donetsk-direction-russian-forces-pushing-ukrainian

Those are in the East.

Quote:

---

Ukrainian military repelled Russian assault attempt at Prudianka in Kharkiv region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-july-ukrainian-military-repelled-russian-assault-attempt

That's in the Northeast.

Lots of goings on. Russia is grinding away, but it's great to see the long range strikes on their supplies in my previous reply.

Uhhh

🔥One of the "Capital Towers" burns in the center of #Moscow

Emergency services arrived on the scene of the accident. According to preliminary data, the fire at Moscow City's Capital Towers started on the roof of the building. pic.twitter.com/h5qPR3wiGp

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) July 3, 2022

Russia is just running the same play over and over again.

1. Destroy city
2. Give Ukes nothing left to defend
3. Move into abandoned city

Every time. Mariupol, Kharkiv (ongoing), Popasna, Sieverodonetsk, Lysychansk, and now Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, etc.

Isn't Ukraine supposed to be getting counter-artillery that can quickly identify where the shots are coming from and then fire back really quickly? There has to be some way to hit Russia's launchers.

Quote:

---

Russian army have partial success at assault in Mazanivka village of Donetsk region

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-july-russian-army-have-partial-success-at-assault-in-mazanivka

Quote:

---

Ukrainian army repelled Russian attack at Vuhlehirsk power station

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-july-ukrainian-army-repelled-russian-attack-at-vuhlehirsk

Quote:

---

Russian Forpost drone crashed into residential house in Taganrog, Rostov oblast. House completely destroyed in fire

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-july-russian-forpost-drone-crashed-into-residential-house

Interesting. I'd guess operator error or malfunction given the location. That's East of Mariupol, inside Russia.

Quote:

---

Explosions at warehouses with ammunition at Donetsk railway station

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-july-explosions-at-warehouses-with-ammunition-at-donetsk

В Донецке горит ЖД вокзал и рвутся снаряды. Рашисты напичкали весь город складами с оружием, которое ВСУ сейчас методично уничтожает точными ударами / #Украина pic.twitter.com/jUjCPON2TX

— Алибаба (@CaucasianRebel) July 4, 2022

From Russian tweeter using Google Earth and Maps imagery.

1/2 - Geolocation of American-supplied HIMARS presumably used against Russian assets in the #Melitopol airbase. Note: The road in question was resurfaced, so its appearance looks different, Green line depicts launch direction. > 47.614641, 35.341526 pic.twitter.com/bzx0Kj7XcM

— The Cube (@War_cube_) July 4, 2022

benchmark said:

---

From Russian tweeter using Google Earth and Maps imagery.

1/2 - Geolocation of American-supplied HIMARS presumably used against Russian assets in the #Melitopol airbase. Note: The road in question was resurfaced, so its appearance looks different, Green line depicts launch direction. > 47.614641, 35.341526 pic.twitter.com/bzx0Kj7XcM

— The Cube (@War_cube_) July 4, 2022

---

Good for them. But they are long gone from that position.

Armed Forces of Ukraine strikes on so-called DPR continue. Projectiles and rockets arrive at the bases of the orcs pic.twitter.com/gSvfdOffD4

— Euromaidan PR (@EuromaidanPR) July 4, 2022

Edit: It won't show because it's a Shorts format, but it's HIMARS launching.

If they can keep them active and supplied those are really going to hurt Russian infra and logi. Especially if they can start hitting their rail and move in towards Crimea. You clear Kherson and get an operating area active on that side... Well Russians are going to have a hard time.

I'm noticing that some of these pictures and videos have the HIMARS firing from roads. Is that the only way to transport them, or are they mobile offroad? I get that the roads are efficient, but I am concerned that this may also make them more easily discoverable and targetable.

The HIMARS are basically just a cargo truck chassis hauling rocket pods. Just about everything with wheels that isn't an ATV moves slowly off road and they have limited ability to climb over natural obstacles. Like all field artillery, it mostly moves on roads and deploys in fields to shoot.

Interesting read from ISW. Expect to hear more media news about a pause in the East in the coming weeks.

ISW: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 4

Quote:

---

Key Takeaways

• [Russian leadership may be setting conditions for an operational pause following the seizure of Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast boundary.
• Russian forces are consolidating territorial and administrative control over Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations to the east of Bakhmut to prepare for advances on Bakhmut and Siversk.
• Russian forces continued limited and unsuccessful assaults north of Kharkiv City.
• Ukrainian partisan activity is targeting Russian railway lines around Melitopol and Tokmak.
• Russian leadership may be setting conditions for the conscription of Ukrainian citizens living in occupied territories.

---

Ulysses90 said:

---

The HIMARS are basically just a cargo truck chassis hauling rocket pods. Just about everything with wheels that isn't an ATV moves slowly off road and they have limited ability to climb over natural obstacles. Like all field artillery, it mostly moves on roads and deploys in fields to shoot.

---

Thanks. I thought I saw one posted a long time ago that was really mobile offroad. It might be abnormal, or I might be getting it mixed up with another type of vehicle.

Mobile enough, but it doesn't need to go off-road. It just needs to keep moving frequently enough to not be easily targeted itself, and roads are much more suitable for that.