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Explosions at military bases in Yasinuvata, Nova Kakhovka, and earlier today at Kadiivka and Perevalne

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/28-june-explosions-at-military-bases-in-yasinuvata-nova-kakhovka



HIMARS?

LMCane said:

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Not enough people are thinking about what happens NEXT in this war. After Russia controls all of Donetsk and Luhansk.

How are the Russians going to control that new massively long border without having proxy forces to do it for them?

How are they going to post armor and artillery all over eastern and southern Ukraine and protect them from partisan attacks? This will be like Afghanistan on steroids for Russia.

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Good question - what happens next if Russia occupies the coast, Donetsk, and Luhansk? To me, this begs the biggest question of the war - can Ukraine mount a legit offensive given their resources? For example, can they take Kherson, cross the Dnipro, and push 100 miles east along the coast? This means Ukraine would regain control of their Black Sea coast and the land bridge to Crimea.

If so, Ukraine has leverage for a negotiated settlement. If not, the war becomes mostly another Donbas 2.0 that may grind on for yrs ... a quasi-stalemate with incremental offensives, counter-offensives, artillery duels, etc.

If so, that's 17 HIMARS in the pipeline ... US (8), UK (3), Germany (3), and Norway (3).

🇳🇴🇺🇦⚡️#Norway will remove from storage and transfer 3 MLRS M270 installations to #Ukraine.#UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/HoDZm2Quk8

— 🇺🇦Ukraine News Live🇺🇦 (@UkraineNewsLive) June 29, 2022

HIMARS are M142 wheeled chassis launchers that mount a six pack of rockets. What the Norwegians are donating is the M270 tracked chassis launchers that mount a 12 pack of rockets.

So equal to 2 HIMARS?

AgLA06 said:

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So equal to 2 HIMARS?

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Sorta. Ammo wise: double the asset. But with the way they're normally implemented (shoot and move) the additional rounds are of primary benefit in large missions. If you drain a pod - you're probably going to a reload point between missions with whichever launcher you have. There's an advantage regarding partial pods, though: the MLRS would keep 7-11 rounds available while HIMARS would have 1-5.

There are some negatives, though, when consolidating: it's much heavier (thus tracked) and by having 1 vehicle rather than 2 or 3 - you get less redundancy if a launcher goes down or a hangfire occurs.

Hmm... the little lake is not near the mall at all (Google maps) pic.twitter.com/wSyeKKmZ5U

— L'occhio di Okumi (@CharlesLydgate) June 29, 2022

Nice update on Russian energy industry. Very encouraging. We just have to be patient.

TROUBLE

Yes.

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Russian troops entered Lysychansk refinery

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/29-june-russian-troops-entered-lysychansk-refinery

SouthTex99 said:

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EastSideAg2002 said:

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74OA said:

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Turkey has apparently dropped its objections to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

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I wonder what under the table deal was done for this.

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https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2022/05/04/congress-signals-openness-to-turkey-f-16-sale-amid-ukraine-cooperation/

Pretty sure they got their F-16s and conversion kits approved.

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If it plays its cards right, the NATO ally could convince Congress to allow a roughly $6 billion purchase of 40 Block 70 F-16 fighter jets and approximately 80 modernization kits from Lockheed Martin to upgrade its existing fleet.

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There is no US F-16 deal forthcoming for Turkey at the moment.

Here's what Erdogan did get: DEAL

I'm pretty concerned about Lysychansk. Seems like that area is quickly getting surrounded, and I think there are a lot of Uke troops there. Russia is simply amassing so much at that one area it's crazy to think the Ukes haven't been wiped out already.

Ulysses90 said:

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HIMARS are M142 wheeled chassis launchers that mount a six pack of rockets. What the Norwegians are donating is the M270 tracked chassis launchers that mount a 12 pack of rockets.

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Some recent reports also say Germany and UK are sending M270's.

74OA said:

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Russia evacuates Snake Island.

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Left as a "gesture of good will"

Incredible. Simply incredible.

Eliminatus said:

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74OA said:

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Russia evacuates Snake Island.

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Left as a "gesture of good will"

Incredible. Simply incredible.

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A Ukrainian soldier on Snake Island made a similar "goodwill gesture" when Russian warships first arrived early in the war.

Update on US security assistance to Ukraine. LIST

• High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and ammunition;
• 1,400+ Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
• 6,500+ Javelin anti-armor systems and 20,000+ other anti-armor systems;
• 121 Phoenix Ghost Tactical UAS and 700+ Switchblade Tactical UAS;
• 126 155 mm Howitzers with 260,000 artillery rounds;
• 20 Mi-17 helicopters
• hundreds of Armored Humvee Vehicles;
• 200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
• 7,000+ small arms and 50+ million rounds of ammunition;
• laser-guided rocket systems; and
• other essential nonlethal equipment, including communications and intelligence equipment.

Eliminatus said:

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74OA said:

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Russia evacuates Snake Island.

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Left as a "gesture of good will"

Incredible. Simply incredible.

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Russian PR guys are shameless. Absolutely shameless

Russia is pretty dumb and will probably try to go back to Snake Island again. Ukraine has the weapons and and technology to take them out every time they try

Russian economy is on a slippery slope downward. EARLY SIGNS

I was able to get a very brief glance at Zelensky's note.

It starts out saying, "Listen, MFer....."

UPDATE

More detail on the battle for SI and the Russian withdrawal. DASVIDANIYA

Here's why forcing Russia off of SI is important: STRATEGIC

I don't see either country going back to Snake Island for a while, Russia knows Ukraine can hit it and the Russian Navy can easily hit the island.

P.U.T.U said:

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I don't see either country going back to Snake Island for a while, Russia knows Ukraine can hit it and the Russian Navy can easily hit the island.

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Right. The key is to clear the Russians out so they couldn't use SI to blockade Odessa and deny Ukrainian access to the Danube River canal in Romania. The Danube joins with other rivers to provide commercial barge access across Europe and connects the Black Sea and the North Sea/Atlantic. It's a way to circumvent the Russian fleet.

CANAL

P.U.T.U said:

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Russia is pretty dumb and will probably try to go back to Snake Island again. Ukraine has the weapons and and technology to take them out every time they try

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You could put some lightly damaged Russian equipment out there like duck decoys and see if they come back.

This needs to happen, a photo with a spread of washing machines on a tiny barren island would be UA's best Russia troll yet.

Great perspective. "Starting with the Kremlin's bullying over any expansion of NATO and demanding a sphere of influence at a European security meeting in December, Foreign Minister Ann Linde said Swedish governmental officials no longer believed its 200 years of neutrality would protect them against Russian aggression. "That rang alarm bells" in Stockholm, she told attendees at the forum. Still, many Swedes and other Europeans, including Ukrainian leaders, still didn't believe that Moscow would launch an all-out military attack on a neighboring country until it did on Feb. 24 in Ukraine. "We came to the conclusion that we weren't safe anymore," Linde said."

BALTICS

Eliminatus said:

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74OA said:

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Russia evacuates Snake Island.

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Left as a "gesture of good will"

Incredible. Simply incredible.

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74OA said:

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Eliminatus said:

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74OA said:

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Russia evacuates Snake Island.

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Left as a "gesture of good will"

Incredible. Simply incredible.

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That's a good one

I just read about Paulus, after surrendering Himself and his armies he lived under house arrest near Moscow until 1947 when they released him, he died in 1957 in eastern Germany where he lived after release in 1947

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Mothers of forceful conscripts protested in Donetsk today

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/1-july-mothers-of-forceful-conscripts-protested-in-donetsk

"Донецк, выпускников академии МВД ДНР без документов собираются увозить на фронт.

Мамаши бунтуют" pic.twitter.com/JLTBLD4ZaA

— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) July 1, 2022