***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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pluto29
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3:46p, 6/27/22
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B-1 83
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In reply to Ulysses90 • 3:54p, 6/27/22
AG
Ulysses90 said:
Perhaps the Ukrainians would like to demonstrate the effectiveness of the Taiwanese nuke-like "eggs" on the Kerch Strait bridge in retaliation for that attack on the shopping mall. A successful demonstration would give China something to think about.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18640/taiwan-china-missiles

Is it practical to mount larger fuel/air explosives on a missile platform? I'm just thinking of tens of thousands of Chinese troops packed in boats cruising towards Taiwan…….
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
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rgag12
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In reply to pluto29 • 3:56p, 6/27/22
AG
pluto29 said:


We don't need Russia's help with that
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P.U.T.U
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4:06p, 6/27/22
AG
The F35s can also act as air traffic controllers and can also provide over the horizon targeting.
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Waffledynamics
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5:55p, 6/27/22
AG
I can't tell if this is part of a Russian offensive or a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv area.
Quote:
Battles are taking place in the directions of Velyki Prohody-Pitomnyk-Ruska Lozova, Tsupivka, Kozacha Lopani-Zolochiv

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/27-june-battles-are-taking-place-in-the-directions-of-velyki

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Waffledynamics
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5:57p, 6/27/22
AG
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Ulysses90
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In reply to B-1 83 • 5:57p, 6/27/22
AG
B-1 83 said:
Ulysses90 said:
Perhaps the Ukrainians would like to demonstrate the effectiveness of the Taiwanese nuke-like "eggs" on the Kerch Strait bridge in retaliation for that attack on the shopping mall. A successful demonstration would give China something to think about.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18640/taiwan-china-missiles

Is it practical to mount larger fuel/air explosives on a missile platform? I'm just thinking of tens of thousands of Chinese troops packed in boats cruising towards Taiwan…….
It has been done with a variant of the Hellfire missile. I am not an expert on the effects of these things but it would seem that no amphibious transport, whether open or enclosed, could survive the overpressure and thermal pulse from a direct hit.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/agm-114n.htm
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Waffledynamics
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5:58p, 6/27/22
AG
Video: Ukrainian military destroyed Russian tank with ATGM Stuhna in Luhansk region

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Waffledynamics
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5:59p, 6/27/22
AG




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Waffledynamics
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6:02p, 6/27/22
AG
Quote:
The base destroyed today near Rodakove had been very recently setup
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/27-june-the-base-destroyed-today-near-rodakove-had-been-very



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Waffledynamics
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6:04p, 6/27/22
AG


Hopefully this is true.
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B-1 83
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In reply to Ulysses90 • 6:16p, 6/27/22
AG
Ulysses90 said:
B-1 83 said:
Ulysses90 said:
Perhaps the Ukrainians would like to demonstrate the effectiveness of the Taiwanese nuke-like "eggs" on the Kerch Strait bridge in retaliation for that attack on the shopping mall. A successful demonstration would give China something to think about.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18640/taiwan-china-missiles

Is it practical to mount larger fuel/air explosives on a missile platform? I'm just thinking of tens of thousands of Chinese troops packed in boats cruising towards Taiwan…….
It has been done with a variant of the Hellfire missile. I am not an expert on the effects of these things but it would seem that no amphibious transport, whether open or enclosed, could survive the overpressure and thermal pulse from a direct hit.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/agm-114n.htm
I'm thinking about something that will suck the life out of every amphibious assault troop within a half mile.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
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74OA
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7:36p, 6/27/22
AG
Today's SITREP.
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TXAggie2011
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11:06p, 6/27/22
AG
Ukraine took another group of settlements as they inch move towards Kherson. They're within 10 miles of urban Kherson.

Not to get ahead of ourselves, but it will be interesting, if it comes, to see how Russia handles urban combat as the defender.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to Not a Bot • 11:50p, 6/27/22
AG
Captain Positivity said:


Likely multi purpose mission providing UKR intel while distracting orcs from UKR direct attacks. Then there is the also the big FU through now you see me now you don't.
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benchmark
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6:40a, 6/28/22
AG
Excellent read.

Can Putin Survive? The Lessons of the Soviet Collapse
Quote:
But these are just the most visible tools of Putin's system of control. Like many other authoritarians, the Russian president has also learned to exploit economic inequality to establish a firm base of support, leaning into the differences between what the Russian scholar Natalya Zubarevich calls "the four Russias." The first Russia consists of urbanites in large cities, many of whom work in the postindustrial economy and are culturally connected to the West. They are the source of most opposition to Putin, and they have staged protests against the president before. But they constitute just one-fifth of the population, by Zubarevich's estimate. The other three Russias are the residents of poorer industrial cities, who are nostalgic for the Soviet past; people who live in declining rural towns; and multiethnic non-Russians in the North Caucasus (including Chechnya) and southern Siberia. The inhabitants of those three Russias overwhelmingly support Putin because they depend on subsidies from the state and because they adhere to traditional values when it comes to hierarchy, religion, and worldview - the kinds of cultural positions that Putin has championed in the Kremlin's imperialist and nationalist propaganda, which has gone into overdrive since the invasion of Ukraine began.
Quote:
Still, even a much weaker Russia is not destined to suffer a Soviet Union-style breakup. National separatism is not nearly as much of a threat to present-day Russia, where roughly 80 percent of the country's citizens consider themselves to be ethnic Russians, as it was to the Soviet Union. Moscow's strong repressive institutions could also ensure that Russia does not experience regime change, or at least not the same kind of regime change that took place in 1991. And Russians, even if they turn against the war, would probably not go on another rampage to destroy their own state.

The West should nonetheless stay the course. The sanctions will gradually drain Russia's war chest and, with it, the country's capacity to fight. Facing mounting battlefield setbacks, the Kremlin may agree to an uneasy armistice. But the West must also stay realistic. Only a hardcore determinist can believe that in 1991, there were no alternatives to the Soviet collapse. In fact, a much more logical path for the Soviet state would have been continued authoritarianism combined with radical market liberalization and prosperity for select groups - not unlike the road China has taken. Similarly, it would be deterministic for the West to expect that a weakened Russia would fall. There will at least be a period in which Ukraine and the West have to coexist with a weakened and humiliated but still autocratic Russian state. Western policymakers must prepare for this eventuality rather than dreaming of collapse in Moscow.
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74OA
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6:41a, 6/28/22
AG
Jomini update. MAPS
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benchmark
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6:58a, 6/28/22
AG
Nice to see France stepping up their game.

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benchmark
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8:07a, 6/28/22
AG
Confirmed HIMARS attack on Perevalsk ... 28 miles behind front lines.
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LMCane
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:31a, 6/28/22
Waffledynamics said:
Video: Ukrainian military destroyed Russian tank with ATGM Stuhna in Luhansk region

I spent years watching Syrian rebels doing the exact same thing to Russian built tanks on Liveleak.

Not enough people are thinking about what happens NEXT in this war. After Russia controls all of Donetsk and Luhansk.

How are the Russians going to control that new massively long border without having proxy forces to do it for them?

How are they going to post armor and artillery all over eastern and southern Ukraine and protect them from partisan attacks? This will be like Afghanistan on steroids for Russia.
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aezmvp
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In reply to LMCane • 10:44a, 6/28/22
LMCane said:
Waffledynamics said:
Video: Ukrainian military destroyed Russian tank with ATGM Stuhna in Luhansk region

I spent years watching Syrian rebels doing the exact same thing to Russian built tanks on Liveleak.

Not enough people are thinking about what happens NEXT in this war. After Russia controls all of Donetsk and Luhansk.

How are the Russians going to control that new massively long border without having proxy forces to do it for them?

How are they going to post armor and artillery all over eastern and southern Ukraine and protect them from partisan attacks? This will be like Afghanistan on steroids for Russia.
Russia's entire tank inventory is going to get emptied by all this. The other piece is then where do you base any air support? Not going to be hard to get men and material to launch strikes on helicopters and planes when you try and move to a non-war footing. Tanks, IFV/AFV/APC, helis and planes are expensive and hard to replace right now.

How do you replace 1000 front line tanks under sanctions? Black market for components that can be repurposed maybe, but that will lead to a lot of design trade offs. What ever Russia will gain out of this pales in comparison to what it's lost. But Ukraine will be weaker for decades. We'll see.
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to LMCane • 11:01a, 6/28/22
AG
LMCane said:
Waffledynamics said:
Video: Ukrainian military destroyed Russian tank with ATGM Stuhna in Luhansk region

I spent years watching Syrian rebels doing the exact same thing to Russian built tanks on Liveleak.

Not enough people are thinking about what happens NEXT in this war. After Russia controls all of Donetsk and Luhansk.

How are the Russians going to control that new massively long border without having proxy forces to do it for them?

How are they going to post armor and artillery all over eastern and southern Ukraine and protect them from partisan attacks? This will be like Afghanistan on steroids for Russia.


I am guessing they roll in with a pretty brutal pacification regime of police, secret police, paid or sympathetic informers, etc, and turn the Russian sympathizers loose on pro Ukrainians and basically drive them out if they won't submit. They have achieved this to a degree by using total warfare tactics to make many areas unlivable and depopulated. Then they move "Russian colonists" in later.
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74OA
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1:28p, 6/28/22
AG
Turning cars into battle wagons. MONSTER GARAGE
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74OA
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1:58p, 6/28/22
AG
Norway stepping up with a big bump in oil exports to Europe. BARRELS

It will activate a new natural gas pipeline to Europe in the Fall, too. GAS
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Burrus86
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In reply to 74OA • 2:14p, 6/28/22
AG
74OA said:
Turning cars into battle wagons. MONSTER GARAGE
Pimp My Ride - War Zone Addition
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74OA
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2:23p, 6/28/22
AG
Turkey has apparently dropped its objections to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
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lb3
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In reply to 74OA • 2:30p, 6/28/22
AG
Big if true.

I wonder how many Bayraktars NATO had to agree to buy.
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EastSideAg2002
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In reply to 74OA • 2:30p, 6/28/22
74OA said:
Turkey has apparently dropped its objections to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
I wonder what under the table deal was done for this.
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CowPieAndFries
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In reply to EastSideAg2002 • 3:01p, 6/28/22
EastSideAg2002 said:
74OA said:
Turkey has apparently dropped its objections to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
I wonder what under the table deal was done for this.
Sweden started deporting members of PKK yesterday.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to EastSideAg2002 • 5:01p, 6/28/22
AG
EastSideAg2002 said:
74OA said:
Turkey has apparently dropped its objections to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
I wonder what under the table deal was done for this.
They won't fund or support the Kurds, is my guess.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to benchmark • 5:04p, 6/28/22
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benchmark said:
Confirmed HIMARS attack on Perevalsk ... 28 miles behind front lines.


Who is confirming this and publishing the data? And the bigger question is why?
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benchmark
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 5:15p, 6/28/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
Who is confirming this and publishing the data? And the bigger question is why?
Presumably Russia and likely to whip up domestics. Given the verified location and distance, HIMARS were the only possible weapon regardless.
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74OA
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7:15p, 6/28/22
AG
Today's SITREP.
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74OA
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In reply to EastSideAg2002 • 8:52p, 6/28/22
AG
EastSideAg2002 said:
74OA said:
Turkey has apparently dropped its objections to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
I wonder what under the table deal was done for this.
Here's the details. DEAL
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Waffledynamics
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10:42p, 6/28/22
AG
Quote:
Photos: parachute found in Kursk near Lukoil pertrol station in APZ-20 district


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/28-june-photos-parachute-found-in-kursk-near-lukoil-pertrol



Sounds like Ukrainian SOF units.
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