txags92 said:

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sclaff said:

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#Severodonetsk - #Russian forces have claimed significant progress in the city today. RuAF claims to have captured the N bridge and to be close to capturing the middle one. This could isolate #UAF in the industrial zone from supplies and reinforcements, forcing their withdrawal. pic.twitter.com/nVS1Fi2QBC

— OSINT Aggregator (@AggregateOsint) June 16, 2022

#Izyum Axis - It is confirmed that #Ukrainian forces bridged the Donets River in the vicinity of Protopopivka & are operating in the forests W of Izyum. We have not seen evidence to support the Izyum City Council statement that Zavody, Spivakivka & Prydonets'ke were liberated. pic.twitter.com/NnJlSDEXKc

— OSINT Aggregator (@AggregateOsint) June 16, 2022

#Kharkiv Axis - #Russian forces have declared the start of a new offensive to attack Kharkiv city. The short term objective is to capture the #Ukrainian defenses in Dementiivka and Rus'ka Lozova. There is reported fighting in Prudyanka, indicating that RU has recaptured Tsupivka. pic.twitter.com/mjNlkSnMSB

— OSINT Aggregator (@AggregateOsint) June 16, 2022

#Kherson Axis - #Ukrainian forces have launched a counterattack aimed at pushing #Russian forces back to Kherson. Russian & Ukrainian sources both confirmed that #UAF is attacking Pravdyne, towards Tomyna Balka and along the Mykolaiv - Kherson Highway. Artillery duels continues. pic.twitter.com/p9kCwYWacl

— OSINT Aggregator (@AggregateOsint) June 16, 2022

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I would love to see the Ukrainians respond to the renewed Kharkiv offensive by attacking Belgorod with artillery, drones, and air power.

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I think Russia's Kharkiv offensive is happening right now because they know MLRS are coming and they don't want it near supply lines.

Per the information he has, Russia has put 333,000 Russian troops in this conflict.

Get Off My Lawn said:

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Even ATACMS doesn't have much of a warhead. Big rocket to carry a small punch a LONG way to an exact spot.

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One of the ATACMS variants has (reportedly) a 500lb HE warhead with a 190 mile range. No info on how many were produced.

There needs to be more of these produced

Ukraine has shown a consistent ability to target the city of Donetsk.

Сообщают о 4 х точках возгорания pic.twitter.com/ZqKlvITO4B

— БыльБылева (@Bylbyleva) June 17, 2022

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Security Service of Ukraine conducted a special operation in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, Zaporizhia, as well as in Dnipropetrovsk and Vinnytsia regions, 19 suspected Russian agents detained

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/17-june-security-service-of-ukraineconducted-a-special-operation

Problem is a 500# bomb isn't that big. If you want to kill infrastructure, you typically go with multiple 2000lb bunker busters.

Oh, and it's a 1-shot deal, too. You can get to pick between a 6-pack of smaller rockets, or a single ATACMS in a launcher at a given time.

Again - if you're hitting a soft or relatively soft target and have a good (stationary) 10 digit grid from a long way off - they're great! One mobile asset can cover nearly 1k sqmi (between it's various munitions and their donuts of respective max-min ranges) from the safety of friendly territory. ...but theyre a tool of precision rather than one meant to facilitate massive area-wide destruction.

Get Off My Lawn said:

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Problem is a 500# bomb isn't that big. If you want to kill infrastructure, you typically go with multiple 2000lb bunker busters.

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Unfortunately, you're right. Without multiple precision hits from 2000lb bombs it seems very unlikely they'll drop the Kerch bridge. Case in point ...

Bridge Busting

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The most difficult spans to destroy were the two Basra Highway bridges, side by side over the Tigris River. Before the bridges were put out of action, the Air Force had to mount attacks over several days.

One F-111 pilot recalls that he first attacked the Basra complex on February 3, 1991, when it was "a virgin target." Since the bridges did not drop then, he went back against them two days later and again four days later, when the bridges finally fell into the river. Strangely, they were not well defended, having AAA emplacements but no surface-to-air missiles.

After a period of trial and error, the wing leaders found that the best technique usually was to use two GBU-24 LGBs to destroy the abutments at either end of a bridge, then hit the middle support sections with GBU-15 EOGBs. In several cases, this method succeeded in demolishing the structures.

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Crazy how much that looks like the Call of Duty game where the Russians (maybe?) invaded New York.

74OA said:

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Americans, US Marines from Ukrainian International Legion in intense firefights during ongoing battle of #Severodonetsk with russian invaders, as russians try to push further into Ukrainian city.#Ukraine #RussiaUkraineWar #RussiaInvadedUkraine #russianAggresion pic.twitter.com/EaHk1Na70r

— Walter Report (@walter_report) June 17, 2022

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Some of that looks exactly like the fighting my unit saw in Iraq around the Fallujah area. Building architecture and all. A couple of points I had to make sure I was seeing yellow armbands and this video wasn't mislabeled. Intense stuff.

I think numbers of the International Legion are kept downlow for a reason but I can't help but wonder what their role is and how it is seen by the Uke commanders. I am assuming it is unit regarded as more capable and better equipped than the TDF but how does it stack up against the regualr army units? Just another light infantry unit? A specialized more elite unit? Anyone know?

First use of recently delivered Harpoons. HITS

Eliminatus said:

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74OA said:

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Americans, US Marines from Ukrainian International Legion in intense firefights during ongoing battle of #Severodonetsk with russian invaders, as russians try to push further into Ukrainian city.#Ukraine #RussiaUkraineWar #RussiaInvadedUkraine #russianAggresion pic.twitter.com/EaHk1Na70r

— Walter Report (@walter_report) June 17, 2022

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Some of that looks exactly like the fighting my unit saw in Iraq around the Fallujah area. Building architecture and all. A couple of points I had to make sure I was seeing yellow armbands and this video wasn't mislabeled. Intense stuff.

I think numbers of the International Legion are kept downlow for a reason but I can't help but wonder what their role is and how it is seen by the Uke commanders. I am assuming it is unit regarded as more capable and better equipped than the TDF but how does it stack up against the regualr army units? Just another light infantry unit? A specialized more elite unit? Anyone know?

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Any of those guys who are Americans are going to be in a world of hurt once Severdonetsk falls and they get trapped like the forces defending Mariupol.

My guess is Putin has public show trials and orders them to be shot by firing squad. Just to embarrass the White House

Crazy footage. Those guys definitely seem to know what they're doing.

He will use them as bargaining tools to stop inflow of aid and or to remove sanctions. When that doesn't occur then they may publicly kill them but at great risk that we get more heavily involved.

JFABNRGR said:

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He will use them as bargaining tools to stop inflow of aid and or to remove sanctions. When that doesn't occur then they may publicly kill them but at great risk that we get more heavily involved.

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He loses a bargaining chip by killing them. They'll be thrown into a detention facility in a small village somewhere in Russia.

Nice piece on why Russia's vaunted EW capabilities haven't had near the expected impact. ELECTRONS

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Head of Luhansk administration: Bakhmut-Lysychansk road is under constant fire control of Russian troops, it is not passable

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/17-june-head-of-luhansk-administration-bakhmutlysychansk

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Ukrainian paramedic Yulia Payevska (Tyra), who was captured by the Russians in mid-March in Mariupol, has been released from captivity - she is already at home, - said President Zelensky

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/17-june-ukrainian-paramedic-yulia-payevska-tyra-who-was-captured

aggiehawg said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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He will use them as bargaining tools to stop inflow of aid and or to remove sanctions. When that doesn't occur then they may publicly kill them but at great risk that we get more heavily involved.

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He loses a bargaining chip by killing them. They'll be thrown into a detention facility in a small village somewhere in Russia.

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If they are going to execute Americans, their best bet is to not announce it. Letting the American people know that you are executing Americans is not going to push them further from getting involved, mercenary or not.

Aftermath video of weapons storage blown up in Khrustalnyi by UKR. Shells all over the place. This looks like a big hit and its over 100KM from the front line.

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1537724571994005507/pu/vid/352x640/rJUL1e4WYGbX9XcE.mp4?tag=12

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/vemwkr/russian_ammo_detonating_in_donetsk_after_a_hit_by/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-june-video-blast-today-at-ammunition-warehouse-in-khrustalnyi

Amazing how some of the most horrible conditions make such simple arts like music so sweet to the ears.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/ve46pe/godspeed_for_ukraine/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Some are reporting UK brimstone missiles were used. But I don't think those have the range needed. They are also supersonic and you can clearly see the missiles inbound before they hit.

But I wonder about the destructive power of the missiles' warheads. Harpoons carry almost 500lbs worth of explosive compared to 14lbs on the brimstone. I would think that a combined 1000 lbs would have obliterated that 138ft vessel, killing most of not all.

Waffledynamics said:

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Ukrainian TB2 UCAV footage showing two missile strikes reportedly on the Russian Vasily Bekh rescue ship that was carrying a Tor-M2KM air defense system that was headed to Snake Island. https://t.co/yglG0gwQlA pic.twitter.com/0Hph0cUhQK

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 17, 2022

Spasatel Vasily Bekh, a tug of the russian black sea fleet, successfully demilitarized by the @UA_NAVY. The ship was transporting personnel, weapons and ammunition to the occupied Snake Island.
Moskva never be alone... pic.twitter.com/3slXr6qtEl

— Defence of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 17, 2022

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UK to train Ukrainian troops. BOOTS

74OA said:

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Great reminder that, "amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics".

Definitely worth reading. HIMARS

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Good read and thanks for sharing. Other articles I've read also point out that long range targeting and GPS jamming may be challenging in some areas ... apparently Ukraine is lacking in long range drone capability. Also, recent reports that Ukraine may ultimately receive up to 14 HIMARS ... 8 for US, 3 from UK, and 3 from Germany. That's a lot of firepower.

JFABNRGR said:

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PA24 said:

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One of the positives of this war, soon Israel will bomb Iran's nuclear facility and Iran's daddy Russia has their hands full.

The beginning of the end of Iran when that happens.

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Interesting take here. Maybe now we just need the rioting in Hong Kong to kick off again or does that mean more covid.

Yeah I think it was a challenge for russia to pull off a parade.

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https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2022/06/16/israeli-air-force-prepares-to-attack-iran-by-beefing-up-f-35s-with-one-ton-bomb-long-haul-capabilities/

I think the strike happens before September 2022.

Will be a crushing defeat for Iran once Israel is done with them and Russia is stretched too thin to help. Ukraine is doing what God wants.

https://unherd.com/2022/06/on-the-frontline-with-the-right-sector-militia/

I found this article interesting. A journalist embedded with one of the so called alt right nazi units in eastern Ukraine.

Based on the information I've seen from Denys Davydov (linked below) and LiveUaMap, it seems the frontline is mostly stagnant the last day or two. Russia has had gains in Severodonetsk, but of course with high casualty rates. It's effectively a dead city. I admire and fear Ukraine's strategy of prioritizing urban warfare. Is it worth it in this war of attrition? I'm no expert.

hate to say but without direct western intervention - russia is going to eventually pulverize ukraine into submission.

There was some commentary early in the war about how the success of the TB2 was surprising evidence that they could operate in a GPS denied environment. I don't know the extent to which that's true.

The TB2 did not start out as a long range drone but ut may have become one thanks to StarLink. The Bayraktars have a similar cruising speed, payload, ceiling, and >20 hours loitering time that puts it in the same class as a Predator (at abouthalftheprice). What it lacked was a satellite C2 link that is difficult to jam. Starlink may have provided that.

It is certainly true that Ukraine doesn't have as many Bayraktars as they need and that the need to return to base to rearm is its own logistical challenge. They are also very vulnerable to SAMs.

Would that there was a cheap decoy with a similar radar profile to a Bayraktar that could be used in large numbers to soak up the reserves of Russian SAMs.

Ulysses90 said:

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The TB2 did not start out as a long range drone but ut may have become one thanks to StarLink. The Bayraktars have a similar cruising speed, payload, ceiling, and >20 hours loitering time that puts it in the same class as a Predator (at about half the price). What it lacked was a satellite C2 link that is difficult to jam. Starlink may have provided that.

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Some reports claim the TB2 has satcom capability via Turkish satellites. Also, about 3 wks ago the US announced a plan to provide 4 MQ-1C Gray Eagle's ... but the plan recently hit a snag over security concerns. There's also the lag time for training operators. Hope they figure it out before the HIMARS arrive.

Whirligigs said:

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hate to say but without direct western intervention - russia is going to eventually pulverize ukraine into submission.

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Russia started their "special" operation (think short yellow school buses) in February with an estimated 195,000 troops.

In April, when they withdrew from northern Ukraine, they shifted their troops to the east without a general mobilization. At the same time, retired western generals were commenting on how difficult and incomplete it would be to reconstitute forces and predicted a culmination in late June or July.

I read a recent report that Russia has rotated an estimated 330,000 troops in and out of Ukraine so far, but territorial gains by the Russians in the last two months has been minimal. It has reached the time to see if the western generals are correct.

🧵
Kharkiv Frontline Update
North east of Kharkiv Russians forces have launched a counteroffensive to recapture liberated territory. The offensive manged to recapture the towns of Ternova and Izybyts'ke.
This counteroffensive already looks to have run out of momentum.
👇 pic.twitter.com/JjOX2J8gW4

— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) June 18, 2022