***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Waffledynamics
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3:29p, 6/10/22
AG
Quote:
Ukrainian military pushed Russian troops 5-7 kms further from Zaporizhzhia - Melitopol Mayor Fedorov


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-june-ukrainian-military-pushed-russian-troops-57-kms-further
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benchmark
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3:32p, 6/10/22
AG
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to benchmark • 3:39p, 6/10/22
AG
benchmark said:


Why stay on that thing when you know there's enemy contact?
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GAC06
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 3:49p, 6/10/22
AG
They may not know. I don't know the speed of that missile but a TOW says up to 320 meters per second. That's 715mph, likely just under supersonic. They wouldn't hear it coming
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txags92
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:25p, 6/10/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
benchmark said:


Why stay on that thing when you know there's enemy contact?
We have seen since very early in this war that the orcs are VERY reluctant to dismount when engaged by ATGMs. They seem to think they will be able to safely drive away from them or maybe they are afraid of getting left behind or run over by a panicking driver, but it has led to alot of orcs being immolated in/on their vehicles throughout the war.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to txags92 • 4:29p, 6/10/22
AG
txags92 said:
Waffledynamics said:
benchmark said:


Why stay on that thing when you know there's enemy contact?
We have seen since very early in this war that the orcs are VERY reluctant to dismount when engaged by ATGMs. They seem to think they will be able to safely drive away from them or maybe they are afraid of getting left behind or run over by a panicking driver, but it has led to alot of orcs being immolated in/on their vehicles throughout the war.
Or they are lazy or malnourished and don't want to walk?
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to GAC06 • 4:35p, 6/10/22
AG
GAC06 said:
They may not know. I don't know the speed of that missile but a TOW says up to 320 meters per second. That's 715mph, likely just under supersonic. They wouldn't hear it coming


Doesn't the vehicle fire a few times?
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txags92
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In reply to aggiehawg • 4:38p, 6/10/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
txags92 said:
Waffledynamics said:
benchmark said:


Why stay on that thing when you know there's enemy contact?
We have seen since very early in this war that the orcs are VERY reluctant to dismount when engaged by ATGMs. They seem to think they will be able to safely drive away from them or maybe they are afraid of getting left behind or run over by a panicking driver, but it has led to alot of orcs being immolated in/on their vehicles throughout the war.
Or they are lazy or malnourished and don't want to walk?
Or scared untrained kids who don't know any better. Sad at an individual level, but given what the orcs have been up to, I can't find any real sympathy for them.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to txags92 • 4:40p, 6/10/22
AG
That's probably the more correct answer. Sad really.
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GAC06
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4:41p, 6/10/22
AG
The internet is saying 200 meters per second for stugna-p. I count 11 second time of flight in that video. 2200m is a long way away, they wouldn't see or hear it coming unless they got lucky and were looking right at the point of origin
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AggieLit
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5:31p, 6/10/22
Feels like old times lately with all the reports and videos of successful Ukrainian strikes. Also, Severodonetsk is feeling like the new Irpin... Russians may eventually get it but at such cost that forward momentum is spent.
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benchmark
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5:32p, 6/10/22
AG
Today's ISW update. Link: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JUNE 10
Quote:
Key Takeaways
  • Ukrainian officials are increasing the urgency of their requests for Western weapons systems due to Russia's artillery superiority.
  • Russian forces are continuing ground assaults within Severodonetsk but have yet to secure full control of the city as of June 10.
  • Russian forces are preparing to renew offensive operations toward Slovyansk and made minor gains to the north of the city.
  • Russian forces are continuing efforts to cut the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway and conducting assaults on settlements near the highway.
  • Russian troops reportedly took control of the Kinburn Spit in the northern Black Sea, which will allow them to exert further control of the Black Sea coast.
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Waffledynamics
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5:38p, 6/10/22
AG
Concerning development: Russia took the town of Sviatohirsk, which, if any bridges remain and/or they can make one, will give them another path towards Sloviansk. They have another path there from Lyman.

He also says that Russia is sending 60,000 more troops by the end of the month.

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Waffledynamics
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In reply to benchmark • 5:40p, 6/10/22
AG
benchmark said:
Today's ISW update. Link: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JUNE 10
Quote:
Key Takeaways
  • Ukrainian officials are increasing the urgency of their requests for Western weapons systems due to Russia's artillery superiority.
  • Russian forces are continuing ground assaults within Severodonetsk but have yet to secure full control of the city as of June 10.
  • Russian forces are preparing to renew offensive operations toward Slovyansk and made minor gains to the north of the city.
  • Russian forces are continuing efforts to cut the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway and conducting assaults on settlements near the highway.
  • Russian troops reportedly took control of the Kinburn Spit in the northern Black Sea, which will allow them to exert further control of the Black Sea coast.
No good news for Ukraine in that.
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GAC06
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6:04p, 6/10/22
AG


Supposedly video from a Ukrainian drone getting shot down. Good illustration of how scary SAM's are. In a manned aircraft even if you happened to be looking right at the point of origin at the exact right time, you have almost no time to react.
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74OA
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6:07p, 6/10/22
AG

"While fighting continues to rage, Russia is "struggling to provide basic services to the population" in the territory it occupies." Please. Having deliberately destroyed whole cities and displaced their populations, what makes anyone think they care about providing services to those left behind? More likely, they want them gone so they can bring in Russian colonists.

Today's SITREP.
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pluto29
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7:24p, 6/10/22
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Waffledynamics
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1:38a, 6/11/22
AG
Reading/watching more into the conflict recently, it sounds like Ukraine is getting to dire straits. Whether that is marketing for more aid is to be determined. However, they need a steady stream of weaponry for certain. Again, I wish someone would step up and send allied troops. It would, for certain, overwhelm Russia. That's not likely due to the geopolitics of the world.
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docb
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:17a, 6/11/22
AG
Yea I'm not sure what to think of the ammunition shortage. Seems like that would be the easiest to supply them. Might be staged? The battle lines don't seem to be changing all that much and the Ukrainians even seem to be having some movement in their favor down south. I'm quite sure we cannot get all the information on what is really happening.
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AGS-R-TUFF
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In reply to docb • 8:59a, 6/11/22
AG
docb said:
Yea I'm not sure what to think of the ammunition shortage. Seems like that would be the easiest to supply them. Might be staged? The battle lines don't seem to be changing all that much and the Ukrainians even seem to be having some movement in their favor down south. I'm quite sure we cannot get all the information on what is really happening.
Agree.

Collectively, NATO should be able to keep the ammo train rolling - in turn, keeping the pressure on Russia to draw down their own ammunition/missile reserves as well as compounding the losses of troops and armor.

If the Ukes can get more MLRS systems supplied, I think they could make meaningful progress. From what has been written, it looks like the Uke tank count has grown substantially.
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 9:03a, 6/11/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
benchmark said:


Why stay on that thing when you know there's enemy contact?


Those armored tracked vehicles are extremely loud. They can only tell they're getting shot at when they see near misses
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benchmark
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10:02a, 6/11/22
AG
Someone gets 5-stars just for the background music.
Video-1
Video-2
Video-3
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aggiehawg
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10:19a, 6/11/22
AG
Quote:
Russian bombers have likely been launching 1960s-era heavy, anti-ship missiles meant to destroy aircraft carriers with nuclear warheads against land targets in Ukraine, a British military intelligence report said Saturday.

It said the 5.5-ton Kh-22 missiles, when used in ground attacks with conventional warheads, are highly inaccurate and can cause severe collateral damage and casualties.
Quote:
Russia is likely using such weapons because it is running short of more precise modern missiles, Britain's Defence Ministry said in a daily update. It gave no details of where exactly such missiles are thought to have been deployed and there was no immediate confirmation from Ukrainian authorities of the use of the heavy missiles.

Both sides have been expending large amounts of weaponry in what has become a grinding war of attrition for the eastern region of coal mines and factories known as the Donbas, placing huge strains on their resources and stockpiles.
Link

Is that common? Using antiship missiles on land targets?
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agent-maroon
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In reply to aggiehawg • 10:22a, 6/11/22
AG
rus consider collateral damage a feature, not a bug
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Demosthenes81
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In reply to aggiehawg • 10:50a, 6/11/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
Quote:
Russian bombers have likely been launching 1960s-era heavy, anti-ship missiles meant to destroy aircraft carriers with nuclear warheads against land targets in Ukraine, a British military intelligence report said Saturday.

It said the 5.5-ton Kh-22 missiles, when used in ground attacks with conventional warheads, are highly inaccurate and can cause severe collateral damage and casualties.
Quote:
Russia is likely using such weapons because it is running short of more precise modern missiles, Britain's Defence Ministry said in a daily update. It gave no details of where exactly such missiles are thought to have been deployed and there was no immediate confirmation from Ukrainian authorities of the use of the heavy missiles.

Both sides have been expending large amounts of weaponry in what has become a grinding war of attrition for the eastern region of coal mines and factories known as the Donbas, placing huge strains on their resources and stockpiles.
Link

Is that common? Using antiship missiles on land targets?
Tomahawk missiles were originally designed to hit other surface ships so the concept is not uncommon. The main factor here is that these old Soviet missiles were intended to carry nuclear warheads so pinpoint accuracy was not necessary. In this case like horseshoes and grenades, getting close counted. When equipped with conventional warheads you need more accuracy or you are just hoping for a hit.
Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. โ€” St. Augustine
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Demosthenes81 • 10:52a, 6/11/22
AG
Thanks for the clarification.
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GinMan
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In reply to 74OA • 1:01p, 6/11/22
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74OA said:
Ukrainian ship dodges concentrated artillery attack. WHEW!


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74OA
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In reply to GinMan • 1:20p, 6/11/22
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GinMan said:
74OA said:
Ukrainian ship dodges concentrated artillery attack. WHEW!


"There had been reports from Russian sources that it was captured again by the Russian Navy during the invasion. But with the fog of war, these reports appear erroneous"
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Eliminatus
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In reply to AGS-R-TUFF • 2:48p, 6/11/22
AG
AGS-R-TUFF said:
docb said:
Yea I'm not sure what to think of the ammunition shortage. Seems like that would be the easiest to supply them. Might be staged? The battle lines don't seem to be changing all that much and the Ukrainians even seem to be having some movement in their favor down south. I'm quite sure we cannot get all the information on what is really happening.
Agree.

Collectively, NATO should be able to keep the ammo train rolling - in turn, keeping the pressure on Russia to draw down their own ammunition/missile reserves as well as compounding the losses of troops and armor.

If the Ukes can get more MLRS systems supplied, I think they could make meaningful progress. From what has been written, it looks like the Uke tank count has grown substantially.
I don't think many realize the mindboggling amounts of ammunition that is needed for sustained kinetic warfare. NATO has been dropping batches of a million here, and millon there, etc. That is nothing and it is not constant I don't think. That constant stream is something we Americans are largely spoiled of. A rifleman burns through their ammo in a firefight, cool. Just load back up on base. Nothing to it. It will be replaced by the logistical train without the infantryman even knowing. It is for all intents and purposes, unlimited to that front line fighter.

Not so in most other militaries. Ukes are burning through their ammo and NOT having anything to replace it with on the spot. Have heard many stories about this.

Plus, not every round is earmarked for the frontline. The Ukes are still trying to equip and train a large standing force which consumes enormous amounts as well of course.

And all of the above? That is just your standard small arms rifle ammo. Advanced munitions and artillery shells? Whole other logistical nightmare. Which is something that America does the best out of, hands down, undebatable.
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EastSideAg2002
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3:20p, 6/11/22
Also, is not most of the ammo they need old soviet based weaponry? I am not sure how much the US keeps of that in stock.
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txags92
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In reply to EastSideAg2002 • 3:41p, 6/11/22
AG
EastSideAg2002 said:
Also, is not most of the ammo they need old soviet based weaponry? I am not sure how much the US keeps of that in stock.
We used to have a bunch out at Camp Stanley according to legend, but not sure if we have kept that up recently.
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JFABNRGR
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4:11p, 6/11/22
AG
Nice read on Time.

https://time.com/6184437/ukraine-russian-offensive/

UKR pushes south liberating 20 villages.



https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/v9xx0t/ukrainian_counteroffensive_operation_is_underway/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
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pluto29
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5:16p, 6/11/22
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Waffledynamics
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7:07p, 6/11/22
AG
Russia crossed the Siverski Donetsk river. Not good. Ukraine is starting to get pushed back more and more.

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74OA
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10:02p, 6/11/22
AG
Update. Read the text imbedded in each map. JOMINI
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