***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

8,080,702 Views | 48727 Replies | Last: 18 min ago by 74OA
ABATTBQ11
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G Martin 87 said:

Captain Positivity said:

He was once considered the moderate alternative to Putin.



I'm wondering how much real information they are getting in what the security services are telling them.
Medvedev was never really an alternative. Putin placed him in the Presidency to ensure his continuing control of the Russian government as the PM. Medvedev has always been Putin's puppet.


This. Putin was limited by consecutive term limits, so he put his stooge Medvedev in charge.
Faustus
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I thought this was kind of a haunting shot:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/08/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Quote:

The intensity of artillery duels in Donbas was evident in newly released satellite images from the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. Fields outside Sloviansk, near the border between Donetsk and Luhansk, were peppered with craters caused by artillery explosions.

Maxar Technologies, via Associated Press
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Russian forces have retreated near Nahirne, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/8-june-russian-forces-have-retreated-near-nahirne---general

This is NW of Popasna and SW of Severodonetsk.
AgLA06
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Faustus said:

I thought this was kind a haunting shot:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/08/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Quote:

The intensity of artillery duels in Donbas was evident in newly released satellite images from the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. Fields outside Sloviansk, near the border between Donetsk and Luhansk, were peppered with craters caused by artillery explosions.

Maxar Technologies, via Associated Press


While impressive from a sheer number of shells fired, the accuracy appears to suck.
74OA
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The EU fund set up to support Ukraine plays an important role in financing sales like this. SPH
Jock 07
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aezmvp said:

Jock 07 said:

Captain Positivity said:




Interesting, If true I'm a bit surprised we're willing to hand over such operational/strategic missile systems. ASBMs will be critical in a PACOM SCS or Taiwan fight.
Sounds like a good time to make sure what they can really do then.

But not a good time to deplete the inventory or risk the chance of adversaries getting a hold of one to develop countermeasures
BQ78
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Depends on what was in the field when they fired.
AgLA06
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BQ78 said:

Depends on what was in the field when they fired.


You think the cleaning crew comes every night to remove wrecked equipment?
FamousAgg
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Have you not seen what a Uke Farmer can do with his tractor?
lb3
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AgLA06 said:

Faustus said:

I thought this was kind a haunting shot:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/08/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Quote:

The intensity of artillery duels in Donbas was evident in newly released satellite images from the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. Fields outside Sloviansk, near the border between Donetsk and Luhansk, were peppered with craters caused by artillery explosions.

Maxar Technologies, via Associated Press


While impressive from a sheer number of shells fired, the accuracy appears to suck.
The number of duds is much higher than I would have thought.
LMCane
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Faustus said:

I thought this was kind a haunting shot:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/08/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Quote:

The intensity of artillery duels in Donbas was evident in newly released satellite images from the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. Fields outside Sloviansk, near the border between Donetsk and Luhansk, were peppered with craters caused by artillery explosions.

Maxar Technologies, via Associated Press

and not a single trench or destroyed vehicle.

hundreds of artillery shells into empty fields.
JFABNRGR
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lb3 said:

AgLA06 said:

Faustus said:

I thought this was kind a haunting shot:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/08/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Quote:

The intensity of artillery duels in Donbas was evident in newly released satellite images from the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. Fields outside Sloviansk, near the border between Donetsk and Luhansk, were peppered with craters caused by artillery explosions.

Maxar Technologies, via Associated Press


While impressive from a sheer number of shells fired, the accuracy appears to suck.
The number of duds is much higher than I would have thought.


I don't think we could see a dud. I think the light colored craters were HE versus Fragmentation.

I wouldn't want any part of being around that field as infantry or armor.

I also think this might be UKR occupied territory, i will try to compare to a video where UKR tank gets hit.
JFABNRGR
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Captain Positivity said:

It's still astonishes me they could not gain control of the air by day 3, let alone day 100.


I agree with you completely on russia's air power deficiencies, but my statement meant to say Long Range IDF weapons for UKR could mimic or be an alternate to UKR not having any real direct combat air assets in play. (nic) drones.
Ulysses90
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JFABNRGR said:

lb3 said:

AgLA06 said:

Faustus said:

I thought this was kind a haunting shot:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/08/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Quote:

The intensity of artillery duels in Donbas was evident in newly released satellite images from the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. Fields outside Sloviansk, near the border between Donetsk and Luhansk, were peppered with craters caused by artillery explosions.

Maxar Technologies, via Associated Press


While impressive from a sheer number of shells fired, the accuracy appears to suck.
The number of duds is much higher than I would have thought.


I don't think we could see a dud. I think the light colored craters were HE versus Fragmentation.

I wouldn't want any part of being around that field as infantry or armor.

I also think this might be UKR occupied territory, i will try to compare to a video where UKR tank gets hit.


I don't believe thos small dark holes are duds. It is more likely that they are all HE projectiles fuzed with point-detonating fuzes. The difference in the impact craters is probably the difference between 0.1 second or less of detonating on the surface or being completely submerged in soft soil that absorbs the blast. It is certan that none of these impacts craters resulted from airburst fuzes because that makes a horseshoe shaped frag pattern.

Htownag11
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LMCane said:

Faustus said:

I thought this was kind a haunting shot:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/08/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Quote:

The intensity of artillery duels in Donbas was evident in newly released satellite images from the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. Fields outside Sloviansk, near the border between Donetsk and Luhansk, were peppered with craters caused by artillery explosions.

Maxar Technologies, via Associated Press

and not a single trench or destroyed vehicle.

hundreds of artillery shells into empty fields.
It almost looks like a field where they were training/practicing based on the lack of any observable enemy activity
lb3
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JFABNRGR said:

lb3 said:

AgLA06 said:

Faustus said:

I thought this was kind a haunting shot:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/08/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Quote:

The intensity of artillery duels in Donbas was evident in newly released satellite images from the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. Fields outside Sloviansk, near the border between Donetsk and Luhansk, were peppered with craters caused by artillery explosions.

Maxar Technologies, via Associated Press


While impressive from a sheer number of shells fired, the accuracy appears to suck.
The number of duds is much higher than I would have thought.


I don't think we could see a dud. I think the light colored craters were HE versus Fragmentation.

I wouldn't want any part of being around that field as infantry or armor.

I also think this might be UKR occupied territory, i will try to compare to a video where UKR tank gets hit.

I was thinking the ones that didn't result in a halo of dead crops or turned over dirt like some of the ones circled below.

P.U.T.U
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Just a guess but in that area the Ukes were probably in the tree line and Russia was trying to get them out. Likely in the surronding wooded area as well. If that is the case I think Hellen Keller would have done a better job than the Russians aiming
AgLA06
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P.U.T.U said:

Just a guess but in that area the Ukes were probably in the tree line and Russia was trying to get them out. Likely in the surronding wooded area as well. If that is the case I think Hellen Keller would have done a better job than the Russians aiming
We'll never know the situation. Hell, the Russian artillery probably didn't either.

All I do know is there are thousands of artillery impacts in empty farm fields and very little damage to the tree line bisecting them. Soldiers aren't going to stay out in the open for days while that takes place even if they happened to be there when the first shell landed.

A for effort, F for execution.
JFABNRGR
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Could be especially if the fuses on air burst triggers go bad after several years. If so that resolution is better than i thought. I would have thought it would just penetrate ground with little disturbance noticeable from above. Ulysses might have some input. Might also be really funny to find out a russian arty battery depleted their entire stock in an effort to get moved.
txags92
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Some of the smaller holes could be from sub-munitions if they were firing cluster rounds from artillery or Grad rockets.
Faustus
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Not a great update, but what we all assumed would be happening along the land bridge.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/08/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Quote:

. . .
As Russia wages a destructive war in eastern Ukraine, its forces have been busy trying to restore transportation links and other key infrastructure in the vast stretch of land it occupies in the south.

Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu said on Tuesday that Russia's military, working with Russian Railways, had repaired about 750 miles of track in southeastern Ukraine and set the conditions for "full-fledged traffic" to flow from Russia, through Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, to occupied territory in Kherson and on to Crimea.

He also said that water was once again flowing to Crimea through the North Crimean Canal an essential source of freshwater that Ukraine cut off in 2014 after the Kremlin annexed the peninsula.
Satellite imagery reviewed by The Times showed that water was flowing through the parts of the canal in Crimea that were dry until March 2022.

Russia's other claims could not be verified, and Ukrainian officials did not immediately comment. But the announcements showed that even as Moscow has redirected the bulk of its combat forces to the industrial eastern region known as Donbas, it is working to cement its hold over lands it has seized in the south.

Of the 20 percent of Ukraine's territory now occupied by Russia, the largest swath of newly occupied land stretches across the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizka. Occupying forces have introduced Russian currency and appointed proxy officials in both regions, but Moscow's claim that it has restored infrastructure links offers an even clearer sign that the Kremlin intends to keep these lands for itself.

A key prize is the North Crimean Canal, which once provided some 85 percent of the freshwater used by people living on the Crimean Peninsula.
. . .
In 2014, after Russia annexed Crimea in a move that Ukraine and its Western allies called illegal, the Ukrainian government built a dam in the town of Kalanchak to block the canal's flow south. Hours after President Vladimir V. Putin ordered Russian forces to invade Ukraine on Feb. 24, Russian forces seized the canal.

Petro Lakiychuk, an analyst at the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI" think tank in Kyiv, told Ukrainian state media that the canal was vital to the Kremlin's long-term plans.
. . .
The restoration of the rail lines could also help Russia, allowing heavy weapons to flow into occupied Ukraine by rail and giving Russia a foothold on the Black Sea, analysts said. Moscow has also been racing to reopen ports along Ukraine's occupied southern coast. Mr. Shoigu said that at least two ports, Berdiansk and Mariupol, have been cleared of mines left by retreating Ukrainian forces and are ready to resume operations.

Russia's effort to establish a land route from Russia to Crimea was delayed by the bloody battle for Mariupol, where Ukrainian fighters held out for months despite being outnumbered and outgunned. In mid-May, they surrendered.

Capturing the devastated city represented a key step in fulfilling Mr. Putin's vision of "Novorossiya" a territory stretching across eastern and southern Ukraine along the Black Sea coastline to Crimea. The Russian president has called these "historically Russian lands," and Moscow has moved quickly to "Russify" the population there, erecting statues of Lenin, introducing the ruble, rerouting internet connections to Russian servers and replacing Ukrainian cellular operators with Russian ones. Even the telephone country code has been changed to Russia's.

Hennadii Lahuta, the Ukrainian head of Kherson's regional military administration, said on Tuesday that the Kremlin planned to hold a referendum this fall, a step toward incorporating the region into Russia. Ukrainian officials have vowed to fight such a move, but so far their counteroffensive in the region has failed to retake much territory.

Rochan Consulting, which tracks developments in the war, said that while there was limited information about fighting in the south, its analysis suggests that the Ukrainian effort "may stall" because of a lack of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. The British Ministry of Defense said on Wednesday that Ukraine's counteroffensive was making limited progress.

Maj. Roman Kovalyov, a deputy commander of a Ukrainian military unit located northeast of Kherson, said in an interview last week that Ukraine was engaged more in disrupting actions than a full-fledged counteroffensive. "There are some settlements that we have liberated through our actions, but these were the fights of a tactical level," he said.

At the same time, a clandestine battle has emerged inside the occupied regions, involving Kremlin loyalists, occupying Russian forces, Ukrainian partisans and the Ukrainian military.
. . .
Maj. Kovalyov, on the Kherson front, said Ukrainian forces were "fighting with what we have."

"Generally most of the weapons that are being shipped to Ukraine go east," he said. "We understand that here."



The square below the red dot is the dam referenced in the article, which Ukraine built after Russia took Crimea in order to stop the flow of fresh water from the canal to the peninsula. Copying the image removed the descriptions.



Russian soldiers near the dam of the North Crimean Canal in the Kherson region last month, in a photo released by Russian state media.Credit...RIA Novosti/Sputnik, via Associated Press
Ag In Ok
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An aerial photo from WW1.

Faustus
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Same thing, different century.
Great pic Ag in OK.
lb3
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Not a stick of vegetation anywhere.
Ag In Ok
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Thanks - the photos of the destruction at eye level are too much for me. Searched around and found some good aerials for reference. What those men went through....
One more for reference. From the Somme




benchmark
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Pigs can fly.

Content Warning: The following video contains material that may be traumatizing to some audiences.
TRM
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Looks like old footage from February or March.
Ulysses90
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I was missing those. I agree with you. That is a surprising number that do appear to be duds. They will be calling EOD for decades to come when those fields are plowed.
lb3
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I didn't even mark all of them. Farmers will be finding them for generations.
Who?mikejones!
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Pt 4.

Spoiler alert: the Russians killed all of James' family in ww2, except his grandmother who escaped.
Not a Bot
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This is probably false for many reasons, not least of which is they likely only have around four of these built.
74OA
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Today's SITREP.
74OA
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UPDATE
74OA
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War in the Black Sea. MINES
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Two Britons and a Moroccan man captured by Russian forces in Ukraine have been sentenced to death, the Russian-owned news agency RIA Novosti is reporting.

Aiden Aslin, 28, from Nottinghamshire, Shaun Pinner, 48, from Bedfordshire, and a third man, Moroccan national Saaudun Brahim, appeared in a court in the Donetsk People's Republic, which is held by pro-Russian rebels.

The court is not internationally recognised.

They are reportedly charged with being mercenaries. But the British men's families say they were in Ukraine's military.

Both British men are serving members of Ukraine's armed forces and the UK has made clear they are prisoners of war entitled to immunity and should not face prosecution for taking part in hostilities.


Tricky situation since they were serving in Ukraine's military, but I can't imagine this plays well to the British.

ETA: Also, this is that one guy captured in Mariupol. If they will kill him, you know damn well they'll likely kill other POWs from that city.

**** Putin and his ilk.
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