74OA said:

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Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 30 May 2022

Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/ZlY83BdoL1

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/A9VVmuIBU4

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) May 30, 2022

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This doesn't jive with me given recent Russian gains.

Ukraine is getting obliterated in the East. They need more support, including and especially allied troops that will not come, unfortunately. I predict losses for them. I just don't see how Ukraine regains their boundaries pre-2014 nor pre-2022. It pains me to say that, but they need a lot more help to succeed.

Keeping an eye or Kherson southern axis ... from ISW late yesterday.

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#Ukrainian forces continued a counteroffensive in northwestern #Kherson Oblast on May 31 and are pushing #Russian forces east of the Inhulets River. 1/3

The #Ukrainian counteroffensive on Davydiv Brid could hinder #Russia's ability to support units north of the settlement where they face Ukrainian counteroffensives from further north. 2/3

The #Russian prioritization of the Battle of #Severodonetsk and the #Donbas offensive operation continues to create vulnerabilities in the critical terrain of #Kherson Oblast. 3/3

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This is scary. Or it is just another day in Russia.

On Russian state TV, they discuss not only what it would take to destroy the United States, but also how many Ukrainians have to be massacred. One lawmaker came up with a figure: 2 million. No one in the studio blinked or objected—including the host, who is himself a Duma member. pic.twitter.com/dqywGStxax

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) May 30, 2022

Nukes, reprogramming brains, monuments. That is a society of hate right there.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/v2h8ab/ukrainian_forces_use_a_uav_to_drop_munitions_on_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Brutal. I bet they could sell remote piloting missions for a 100K each across the globe to help finance the war and rebuild.

These are staggering losses:

NEW - Ukraine is losing 60 to 100 soldiers every day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Newsmax. “The situation in the east is very difficult. We are losing 60 to 100 soldiers every day and something like 500 wounded in combat.”

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) June 1, 2022

Agthatbuilds said:

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These are staggering losses:

NEW - Ukraine is losing 60 to 100 soldiers every day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Newsmax. “The situation in the east is very difficult. We are losing 60 to 100 soldiers every day and something like 500 wounded in combat.”

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) June 1, 2022

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That is insane. That's on the lower end of the BTG size range, isn't it?

Really though, has Russia changed strategy and tactics in a hugely meaningful way, or are they just not stretching themselves too thin? This is getting out of hand for Ukraine unless they do something big.

Waffledynamics said:

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Really though, has Russia changed strategy and tactics in a hugely meaningful way, or are they just not stretching themselves too thin? This is getting out of hand for Ukraine unless they do something big.

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Yes. They spread themselves thin without logistical support, they regrouped and are now attacking the east and south where they have support from land and sea. Typically you need 3:1 when defending a position but it is looking to be 5:1-7:1, by pure numbers alone Ukraine is in big trouble. Ukraine does not have the infantry numbers to be able to go under thier artillery and counterattack. Plus a lot of the areas they are trying to defend have been levelled so there is not much to take cover behind.

As I mentioned earlier how things are looking now Ukraine will lose a good amount of land. Russia is slowly taking territory and unless something changes this will continue to happen

That troublesome ratio of troops is concentrated in a pretty small area around Severodonetsk. Much of the rest of that front has largely grinded into a stalemate

This will *probably* grind into a stalemate that looks something like the lines look like now---a a nasty, costly stalemate for both sides

P.U.T.U said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Really though, has Russia changed strategy and tactics in a hugely meaningful way, or are they just not stretching themselves too thin? This is getting out of hand for Ukraine unless they do something big.

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Yes. They spread themselves thin without logistical support, they regrouped and are now attacking the east and south where they have support from land and sea. Typically you need 3:1 when defending a position but it is looking to be 5:1-7:1, by pure numbers alone Ukraine is in big trouble. Ukraine does not have the infantry numbers to be able to go under thier artillery and counterattack. Plus a lot of the areas they are trying to defend have been levelled so there is not much to take cover behind.

As I mentioned earlier how things are looking now Ukraine will lose a good amount of land. Russia is slowly taking territory and unless something changes this will continue to happen

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I think the Ukrainians are trying to make the Russian resupply effort more one dimensional by reaching for the rail lines east of Kharkiv and reaching SE east of Kherson to try to capture the rail line in and out of Crimea. If they can do that, they may be able to hassle it the same way they did the one dimensional corridor into the area NW of Kiev earlier in the war.

Waffledynamics said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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These are staggering losses:

NEW - Ukraine is losing 60 to 100 soldiers every day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Newsmax. “The situation in the east is very difficult. We are losing 60 to 100 soldiers every day and something like 500 wounded in combat.”

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) June 1, 2022

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That is insane. That's on the lower end of the BTG size range, isn't it?

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No. A BTG is a battalion sized element which is 700+ at full strength. Those numbers are less than a company's strength. The Ukrainians are basically losing a BTG/week.

txags92 said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Really though, has Russia changed strategy and tactics in a hugely meaningful way, or are they just not stretching themselves too thin? This is getting out of hand for Ukraine unless they do something big.

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Yes. They spread themselves thin without logistical support, they regrouped and are now attacking the east and south where they have support from land and sea. Typically you need 3:1 when defending a position but it is looking to be 5:1-7:1, by pure numbers alone Ukraine is in big trouble. Ukraine does not have the infantry numbers to be able to go under thier artillery and counterattack. Plus a lot of the areas they are trying to defend have been levelled so there is not much to take cover behind.

As I mentioned earlier how things are looking now Ukraine will lose a good amount of land. Russia is slowly taking territory and unless something changes this will continue to happen

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I think the Ukrainians are trying to make the Russian resupply effort more one dimensional by reaching for the rail lines east of Kharkiv and reaching SE east of Kherson to try to capture the rail line in and out of Crimea. If they can do that, they may be able to hassle it the same way they did the one dimensional corridor into the area NW of Kiev earlier in the war.

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This is the key. Fight hard, tactically retreat when necessary…but be relentless is your efforts to cripple/slow supply lines in. Even if you temporarily concede territory. The monster can only attack so much, if it's arteries are clogged or severed.

Russia is obliterating everything. It'd probably be a different story if Russia was trying to preserve anything as they take land, but that is not the case. This is pure obliteration that hasn't been seen in Europe in a very long time.

We've sent all of that military munitions, so what are Russia's continuing losses?

Russia: Trouble in the ranks? REFUSAL

Ukraine again says no to ceding land for peace. AMBASSADOR

74OA said:

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Russia: Trouble in the ranks? REFUSAL

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Genuinely surprised they did not simply disappear them.

All those old T-62 and BMP1 and BTR's? They will be used for recon by fire, since Russia has taken a lot of recon and aircraft losses. They will be used to probe and draw fire to save better assets for planned follow up attacks.

Also, Russia has a lot of artillery and old shells so on a reduced front, they can afford to shell the front into oblivion and them slowly prove forward in plodding systematic fashion.

Moscow having a hissy fit over HIMARS. FURY

More on HIMARS. ARMS

74OA said:

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Moscow having a hissy fit over HIMARS. FURY

More on HIMARS. ARMS

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For context, the 40 mile range puts about 2/3's of Russian occupied Ukrainian territory within range. Unsure how their limited rocket supply will be best used, but command-control targets would have be high on their list.

92AG10 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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These are staggering losses:

NEW - Ukraine is losing 60 to 100 soldiers every day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Newsmax. “The situation in the east is very difficult. We are losing 60 to 100 soldiers every day and something like 500 wounded in combat.”

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) June 1, 2022

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That is insane. That's on the lower end of the BTG size range, isn't it?

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No. A BTG is a battalion sized element which is 700+ at full strength. Those numbers are less than a company's strength. The Ukrainians are basically losing a BTG/week.

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100 KIA and 500 wounded per day is a BTG per day.

I know Ukraine has an International Legion to help with manpower, but has any thought been given to creating a latter-day American Volunteer Group whereby interested USAF/USN/USMC pilots resign their commissions to go fly tactical missions for Ukraine in US-made jets (F-16, F-18) - paid for or gifted by the American people? It worked 80 years ago....

benchmark said:

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74OA said:

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Moscow having a hissy fit over HIMARS. FURY

More on HIMARS. ARMS

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For context, the 40 mile range puts about 2/3's of Russian occupied Ukrainian territory within range. Unsure how their limited rocket supply will be best used, but command-control targets would have be high on their list.

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Forward Ammo/fuel dumps. The Russians have repeatedly shown their tankers will abandon vehicles that run out of fuel and their logistics requires ammo dumps about 20-25 mi behind the front lines and/or artillery to be effective.

You're not wrong about C&C however. I wonder if you could get one in range of the bridges into Crimea?

lb3 said:

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92AG10 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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These are staggering losses:

NEW - Ukraine is losing 60 to 100 soldiers every day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Newsmax. “The situation in the east is very difficult. We are losing 60 to 100 soldiers every day and something like 500 wounded in combat.”

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) June 1, 2022

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That is insane. That's on the lower end of the BTG size range, isn't it?

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No. A BTG is a battalion sized element which is 700+ at full strength. Those numbers are less than a company's strength. The Ukrainians are basically losing a BTG/week.

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100 KIA and 500 wounded per day is a BTG per day.

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I think those numbers may be inflated a bit, I pray they are inflated a lot.

Send the HIMARs send the drones , for Gods sake send it all. **** russia tell them to GTFO and we wont send anymore weapons. Only munitions, aid, etc.

Bridge is too far, and I don't believe were sending anything with the large, single warheads. They'd need ATACMS rounds.

lb3 said:

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92AG10 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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These are staggering losses:

NEW - Ukraine is losing 60 to 100 soldiers every day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Newsmax. “The situation in the east is very difficult. We are losing 60 to 100 soldiers every day and something like 500 wounded in combat.”

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) June 1, 2022

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That is insane. That's on the lower end of the BTG size range, isn't it?

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No. A BTG is a battalion sized element which is 700+ at full strength. Those numbers are less than a company's strength. The Ukrainians are basically losing a BTG/week.

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100 KIA and 500 wounded per day is a BTG per day.

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Are you assuming that all 500 of wounded are combat ineffective and are unable to ever return to the field? If the 60-100 KIA are across the entire theater and (simultaneously) previously wounded soldier are rotating back to the front then you are not really losing a BTG/day.

Combat effectiveness and fighting strength aren't as black or white as some of you seem to believe. There is a reason they call it "battlefield calculus". If the Ukrainians were in fact losing a BTG/day this war would have been over weeks ago and the UAF would no longer exist.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/1-june-the-biden-administration-plans-to-sell-ukraine-four

Should be helpful. Maybe can fly these into Crimea?

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Bridge is too far, and I don't believe were sending anything with the large, single warheads. They'd need ATACMS rounds.

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Can they hit the Crimean air bases just South of the Kherson region?

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a38160218/how-the-us-army-is-harnessing-laser-technology-as-a-defense-strategy/

These will be game changers one day. With the artillery warfare we're seeing in Ukraine, this is exactly the kind of weapon we need in the future.

Part 1 of the James Vasquez interview.

No. They're probably going to only be able to strike 20-30 miles behind Russian lines. Depends on their munitions, but they're likely getting rockets with a 30-40 mile range. They'll likely be well behind the lines to avoid being targeted themselves and launching at targets of opportunity like C&C or Russian artillery.