***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,537,305 Views | 47716 Replies | Last: 18 hrs ago by 74OA
Eliminatus
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74OA said:

Looks like it's actually going to happen. Thanks again, Putin. GERMANY


"Together, we are ensuring that the Bundeswehr will be strengthened in the coming years with 100 billion in additional investment," the joint statement said.

"In doing so, the so-called NATO 2% target [of GDP on military spending] will be achieved on a multi-year average."

No ****, Germany. They openly acknowledge they have never met their treaty obligations. The kid who disappeared for the first 90% of the group project wants to finally contribute and get a good grade at the end.
Sea Speed
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Starlink wars scare tf out of me.
AgLA06
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You mean skynet?
Sea Speed
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AgLA06 said:

You mean skynet?


Ha I actually typed that out but changed it when I realized I called it the wrong thing.

The long tweet string posted several pages back is what prompted that post. It is actually kind of scary thinking that something like that is completely controlled by one person. I really like Musk and all he has and is doing but he wouldn't have to wade very far in to the deep end to use something like that for nefarious purposes.
benchmark
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Yesterday's news without a recent update ... but interesting to follow. Russia occupies an area about 30 miles deep x 100 miles long running NE from Kherson on the north bank of the Dnipro River.

If Ukraine was really serious about a opening a major offensive to retake Kherson and the north bank of the Dnipro - the small breakout near Bilohirka would be a logical place to start. Or is Ukraine only capable of smaller counter offenses ... like what we've seen near Kharkiv where they haven't pushed east toward Vovchansk or further north to the border?
Jetpilot86
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They have shown great tactical restraint so far. Not sure they can afford a huge battle loss like the Ru's have taken so far. They are however, good at creating and exploiting weak points.
Waffledynamics
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Still going rough for Ukraine despite some gains on the margins. The battle for the Donbas has to be taking a toll. I think they need to consider booking it out of Severodonetsk if it really is as damaged as they say. Could they be more effective in a mobile defense and counterattack than they are in a fixed defense of the city, risking thousands of troops there to death and/or capture?

Serious things to consider.

Jetpilot86
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Since it's slow here is the link to my coworker's 503c org that has sprung to life to get basic necessities to kids. Another one of my coworkers has pledged a $20k match ending today or tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/opbackpack4kids?s=21&t=VcAvesFl0zPIVWlgOsOCOw
GigEmRangers75455
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Speak the truth is supposed to have James Vasquez (the American whose been fighting in Ukraine) in studio sometime this week. Will be cool to see a first hand account for what's going on.
doctorAg13
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This was very interesting to my decidedly non expert understanding.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
benchmark
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74OA
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doctorAg13 said:




This was very interesting to my decidedly non expert understanding.
What really matters is which rockets are provided for HIMARS or MLRS to shoot, because either system can fire all of them. The Devil is in the Details (repost)
74OA
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benchmark said:



It appears the US is still likely to provide HIMARS or MLRS launchers and a spectrum of rockets for them to fire but excluding the longer-range ATACMS ballistic missile. If so, it's still a major boost in firepower for Ukraine.
Waffledynamics
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Russia is advancing in Severodonetsk.

2wealfth Man
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benchmark
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benchmark
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Worth keeping an eye on. If the Ukrainians can keep the Davydiv Brid breakout rolling south to the Dnipro Dam (35 miles) they can split Russian forces on the north bank of the Dnipro.
74OA
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UPDATE
P.U.T.U
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At this point with Russia focusing all of its efforts on the Donbas region I am not sure what Ukraine can do to stop it. Russia is pulling its WWII strategy and will keep pumping assets into that area. The incoming artillery will help but it may be too little too late since I am not sure if Ukraine has the ability to mount a large counter offensive. Plus Ukraine can do very little now against Russia's navy now that they have pushed out to sea a little further.

The western countries need to stop telling the world what they are sending, seems like they care more about how the world views them versus what is tactically proficient. But then again that is the world we live in now, as long as you look good to others that is all that matters.

Ukraine had a little over 40 million citizens and by the end of this I would not be surprised if they lose a quarter of that to deaths, immigration to other western countries, Russia stealing them for labor, or Russia annexed areas. Yeah we talk about how many troops Russia is losing but it is not even a drop in the bucket compared to what Ukraine is losing.

And I am not even talking about the Russian strategy of annihilating cities in order to defeat the Ukes. From the videos there is nothing left to rebuild in a lot of them. This is the exact same thing Russia did in Syria and that war cause a third of all Syria to immigrate to other countries.

AggieLit
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doctorAg13 said:




This was very interesting to my decidedly non expert understanding.


These would be such a difference-maker a month ago.
Eliminatus
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P.U.T.U said:

At this point with Russia focusing all of its efforts on the Donbas region I am not sure what Ukraine can do to stop it. Russia is pulling its WWII strategy and will keep pumping assets into that area. The incoming artillery will help but it may be too little too late since I am not sure if Ukraine has the ability to mount a large counter offensive. Plus Ukraine can do very little now against Russia's navy now that they have pushed out to sea a little further.

The western countries need to stop telling the world what they are sending, seems like they care more about how the world views them versus what is tactically proficient. But then again that is the world we live in now, as long as you look good to others that is all that matters.

Ukraine had a little over 40 million citizens and by the end of this I would not be surprised if they lose a quarter of that to deaths, immigration to other western countries, Russia stealing them for labor, or Russia annexed areas. Yeah we talk about how many troops Russia is losing but it is not even a drop in the bucket compared to what Ukraine is losing.

And I am not even talking about the Russian strategy of annihilating cities in order to defeat the Ukes. From the videos there is nothing left to rebuild in a lot of them. This is the exact same thing Russia did in Syria and that war cause a third of all Syria to immigrate to other countries.




Ultimately, you of course may be right. Maybe a case of too little, too late. Even though we have provided a lot and relatively quickly, I still feel like we waffled around on key weapons and components. We have had to tiptoe around angering Putin of course. That man is still dictating our moves.

If we had started from the very beginning the rate of complexity of our aid, I do think things would look different now. I remember we were patting ourselves on the back for sending bullets at the beginning. God knows they needed it, but at that exact time we needed to have had the first cadre of trainers working on artillery. Could have had them out a month earlier than we actually did.

I know the political and logistical realities could not have pushed it faster but it is still frustrating to piecemeal out weapons and tech. Even though I know how that is how it goes in warfare. My platoon lost an old hand me down humvee with four Marines in it to an IED. Ten days later we got the new MRAPs. Not saying they all would have lived, but their chances would have been exponentially higher.

This sucks. War sucks. Putin sucks most of all.
aezmvp
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Eliminatus said:

P.U.T.U said:

At this point with Russia focusing all of its efforts on the Donbas region I am not sure what Ukraine can do to stop it. Russia is pulling its WWII strategy and will keep pumping assets into that area. The incoming artillery will help but it may be too little too late since I am not sure if Ukraine has the ability to mount a large counter offensive. Plus Ukraine can do very little now against Russia's navy now that they have pushed out to sea a little further.

The western countries need to stop telling the world what they are sending, seems like they care more about how the world views them versus what is tactically proficient. But then again that is the world we live in now, as long as you look good to others that is all that matters.

Ukraine had a little over 40 million citizens and by the end of this I would not be surprised if they lose a quarter of that to deaths, immigration to other western countries, Russia stealing them for labor, or Russia annexed areas. Yeah we talk about how many troops Russia is losing but it is not even a drop in the bucket compared to what Ukraine is losing.

And I am not even talking about the Russian strategy of annihilating cities in order to defeat the Ukes. From the videos there is nothing left to rebuild in a lot of them. This is the exact same thing Russia did in Syria and that war cause a third of all Syria to immigrate to other countries.




Ultimately, you of course may be right. Maybe a case of too little, too late. Even though we have provided a lot and relatively quickly, I still feel like we waffled around on key weapons and components. We have had to tiptoe around angering Putin of course. That man is still dictating our moves.

If we had started from the very beginning the rate of complexity of our aid, I do think things would look different now. I remember we were patting ourselves on the back for sending bullets at the beginning. God knows they needed it, but at that exact time we needed to have had the first cadre of trainers working on artillery. Could have had them out a month earlier than we actually did.

I know the political and logistical realities could not have pushed it faster but it is still frustrating to piecemeal out weapons and tech. Even though I know how that is how it goes in warfare. My platoon lost an old hand me down humvee with four Marines in it to an IED. Ten days later we got the new MRAPs. Not saying they all would have lived, but their chances would have been exponentially higher.

This sucks. War sucks. Putin sucks most of all.
It's hard to fight an armored force with infantry. Weapons are finite. Even if the Russians continue to take huge material losses eventually the Ukes will have to go after them to kick them out. The Ukes are husbanding their resources as much as possible while atrittng the Russians. If they fail to really push out the Russians then it becomes static and the Ukes lose. It's probably a strategic decision, a difficult one and probably the right one. But it's a hard choice.
LMCane
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Waffledynamics said:

FIDO95 said:



This guy has been making some great videos on the daily situation in Ukraine. I had been watching "Speak the Truth" but it started to get a little repetitive.
Denys is great. I think Speak the Truth got repetitive at times because the war was getting repetitive and non-eventful. He's still had great information. There just haven't been a lot of changes.
Denys videos much more informative than Speak the Truth.

Denys gets some real intel from his buddies around Ukraine
Zobel
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I think everyone was caught a bit by surprise by the combination of overperforming Ukrainian defense and vastly underperforming Russians. No sense in sending shiny new toys if they're going to be captured in a few weeks.

The most plausible explanation to me is that the moment we saw the ineptitude of the Russians we knew we couldn't risk facing them as NATO because it would be an immediate rout leading to possible nuclear escalation. So we changed to trying to prevent that from happening via Ukraine and escalated support accordingly.
74OA
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A global perspective on why the blockade on Ukrainian grain came at a particularly bad time. Perfect Storm
FamousAgg
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Russia will use this as an opportunity to strengthen their ties to the world's poorest countries. "Ve vill take care of our allies, ve vill ensure you do not starve, you must only pledge your allegiance to ze kermlin". All the while they steal Ukraine grain and blackmail poor countries to keep food in their bellies
AlaskanAg99
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https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/China-hoards-over-half-the-world-s-grain-pushing-up-global-prices

And right now China is hoarding grain. From Dec 2021.

DALIAN, China/TOKYO -- Less than 20% of the world's population has managed to stockpile more than half of the globe's maize and other grains, leading to steep price increases across the planet and dropping more countries into famine.

The hoarding is taking place in China.
FamousAgg
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Yep the food shortages is coming, and it won't be the us in America who suffer
Not a Bot
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BattleGrackle said:

Russia will use this as an opportunity to strengthen their ties to the world's poorest countries. "Ve vill take care of our allies, ve vill ensure you do not starve, you must only pledge your allegiance to ze kermlin". All the while they steal Ukraine grain and blackmail poor countries to keep food in their bellies


They've publicly said as such.
Jetpilot86
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AlaskanAg99 said:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/China-hoards-over-half-the-world-s-grain-pushing-up-global-prices

And right now China is hoarding grain. From Dec 2021.

DALIAN, China/TOKYO -- Less than 20% of the world's population has managed to stockpile more than half of the globe's maize and other grains, leading to steep price increases across the planet and dropping more countries into famine.

The hoarding is taking place in China.

China had to cull 2/3 of their pig heard do to swine flu. They're buying up every piece of food they can fine to re-populate that herd. Watch the Ziehlan video post here.

Will they try to exploit that, sure. But they are not doing it for now except for their own survival, naturally at the expense of everyone else.
74OA
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MLRS?
74OA
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Today's SITREP.
74OA
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AlaskanAg99
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Nah, they're hoarding to keep their population fed.

TXAggie2011
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China's hoarding doesn't appear to be pernicious at this point. They have a huge population that's more and more urban, they had the pig problem as noted, and their domestic crops have been inconsistent at best due to various issues, including Covid lockdowns
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