***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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MeatDr
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7:50p, 5/20/22
AG
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3rd and 2
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In reply to MeatDr • 8:00p, 5/20/22
AG
MeatDr said:


That's heroic but terrible. I'm sure the US had drones to do that. Why weren't the given to them.
.
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MeatDr
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8:16p, 5/20/22
AG
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Rossticus
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In reply to MeatDr • 8:25p, 5/20/22
MeatDr said:


I'd take significant pleasure strangling the Russians doing isht like that with their own entrails.
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Brewskis
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In reply to 3rd and 2 • 9:23p, 5/20/22
AG
3rd and 2 said:
MeatDr said:


That's heroic but terrible. I'm sure the US had drones to do that. Why weren't the given to them.


We don't have that capability with drones either. We'd have to resupply the same way they did. The average American far overestimates drone capability….
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MaxPower
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In reply to 3rd and 2 • 9:29p, 5/20/22
Better question is why Ukraine didn't prepare for this by purchasing them ahead of time? Panhandling for military support isn't exactly the greatest of strategies.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to MaxPower • 9:36p, 5/20/22
AG
Because you can't buy what doesn't exist
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Rossticus
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 9:38p, 5/20/22
ABATTBQ11 said:
Because you can't buy what doesn't exist


That's a special sort of stupid, isn't it?
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AlaskanAg99
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9:51p, 5/20/22
AG
Drones can carry at max, 4 anti-tank munitions. That's not even light-lift.

Drones will change this war if deployed enmass. Imagine teams on ATVs that can get in close, super light spotters with better optics, then heavy Drones that can deploy and knock out armor. Or direct fire. 20-40km range for artillery.
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pluto29
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1:31a, 5/21/22
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10thYrSr
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In reply to MeatDr • 1:42a, 5/21/22
MeatDr said:


Not shaved. Pulled back into a ponytail.
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10thYrSr
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3:17a, 5/21/22
*** Stop derailing the thread. You have a clear pattern of doing so. Take a break -- Staff ***
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CondensedFogAggie
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In reply to FamousAgg • 4:30a, 5/21/22
BattleGrackle said:
How do we interpret this

They lost 90% of all their pilots supplying that position?
They 90% of the pilots they lost were performing that mission?
90% of the pilots that died knew their mission was to supply the plant?
Here's the. entire quote

Quote:
Today, May 20, is the 86th day of Ukraine's defense against a full-scale Russian invasion. 8.44 p.m: Ukrainian defenders at Azovstal managed to last that long thanks to the heroic sacrifice of Ukrainian pilots, who were secretly delivering food and water to the besieged still mill, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with Ukrainian media. "Unfortunately, a very large number of our pilots died. Absolutely heroic people who knew how difficult it was to fly to Azovstal and bring them medicine, food, and water," Zelensky said.

The President said that there were no air corridors to the Azovstal plant due to the strong Russian air defense systems in the area. "Helicopter pilots for many weeks were flying there, knowing that 90% do not return… Imagine what these people did. They flew there to give food, water, and weapons to Azovstal defenders and took away the wounded. We lost many pilots. They are absolutely heroic, "Zelensky stressed.
So the first one most likely. Looks like they made that choice because the tradeoff in pilots and helis were worth the cost of tying the Russians down.

Heroic and legendary for the pilots, but also very sad for the sacrifices.
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3rd and 2
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In reply to pluto29 • 5:35a, 5/21/22
AG
pluto29 said:


If this is only mostly true, I'm just wondering why the Russians haven't collapsed yet.
.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to 3rd and 2 • 9:36a, 5/21/22
AG
3rd and 2 said:
pluto29 said:


If this is only mostly true, I'm just wondering why the Russians haven't collapsed yet.
"The Russian high command behaves as if its troops are an afterthought, making tactical decisions as if it can simply throw people at poorly designed objectives until it succeeds."

They simply have not run out of soldiers or equipment yet, while those being tasked with missions don't fully know they are about to become sunflower fertilizer and or are compelled to do so by force from their own command/fsb.

Here is a couple of examples. You two go recon that area over there for UKES. When they don't return they just send out another. orcs have no problem with attrition loss and we need to help speed this up.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/uuntgz/ukrainian_forces_are_again_destroying_the_russian/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/uuna0g/ukrainian_forces_strike_again_with_their/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Excellent shot timing through the trees on the first one.

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Premium
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9:47a, 5/21/22
AG
So I've read a few places people think Ukraine will concede. Is that remotely true?
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FamousAgg
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In reply to Premium • 9:55a, 5/21/22
Yes it's true many people think Ukraine should concede.
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Belton Ag
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In reply to 3rd and 2 • 9:56a, 5/21/22
AG
3rd and 2 said:
pluto29 said:


If this is only mostly true, I'm just wondering why the Russians haven't collapsed yet.
The article touched on it briefly, but I know it's been mentioned in this thread before. Throwing bodies at the enemy is something that's endemic to Russian military history. It's what they've always done. You mention Russia collapsing, the staggering body counts from WW1 - the Brusilov Offensive was a prime example - was one of the last straws that led to the collapse of Imperial Russia and the Russian revolution.

This conflict isn't resulting in anything close to the casualty counts from WW1, but social media and the advent of technology makes it difficult for the Russian military to dismiss or conceal it. It gets magnified to the point where the affect could be similar to what happened in 1917.

I have my doubts that happens, but the longer this drags on the worse it's going to be for Putin and those in power in Russia.
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Rossticus
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In reply to Premium • 10:02a, 5/21/22
Premium said:
So I've read a few places people think Ukraine will concede. Is that remotely true?


Formal negotiations have broken down recently so I don't see concessions via that channel at this time. The Ukrainian government and military has provided no recent indications that they're prepared to surrender and submit to Russian conquest.

Russia wants to continue to militarily take and politically annex as much Ukrainian territory as possible and Ukraine feels that, with the international assistance they're receiving, they can eventually degrade Russian military capabilities and repel occupation forces.

Neither of their respective goals are conducive to a negotiated cessation of hostilities at this time, and probably not for at least a few more months, if not longer, barring the military collapse of one side ir the other.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to 3rd and 2 • 10:09a, 5/21/22
AG
3rd and 2 said:
pluto29 said:


If this is only mostly true, I'm just wondering why the Russians haven't collapsed yet.


Numbers, mostly. There's also some air power advantages. The Russians are exceptionally inept, but they're not not completely incapable. Their strategy is and always has been to just throw people at a problem. They'll try to grind Ukraine down until they can overwhelm them.

Even still, they have somewhat collapsed already. Their northern front is gone, and they've had to consolidate their forces for far more limited objectives. Their navy is also pretty much out of the picture and limited to submarine operations. They won't go near the Ukrainian coast.

And the Russians control the narrative within Russia and the Russian army. I doubt anyone on the ground or on the public really knows what's really going on.
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Rossticus
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10:24a, 5/21/22
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NavyAg92
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In reply to Rossticus • 10:41a, 5/21/22
AG
She's so FOS. Now had she said the USA would have destroyed the Russian military in hours, then that would make more sense and be more realistic.

They're struggling against the Ukraine with EVERYTHING in their military arsenal. The Russian military is trash. They're no super power. Not even close with or without their nukes.
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benchmark
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11:37a, 5/21/22
AG
Ooops.

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agent-maroon
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In reply to benchmark • 11:49a, 5/21/22
AG
Is UAWeapons saying that they geolocated it from the photographers pics? Awesome if so
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to NavyAg92 • 11:51a, 5/21/22
NavyAg92 said:
She's so FOS. Now had she said the USA would have destroyed the Russian military in hours, then that would make more sense and be more realistic.

They're struggling against the Ukraine with EVERYTHING in their military arsenal. The Russian military is trash. They're no super power. Not even close with or without their nukes.


Agreed. Putin's Russia is a paper tiger that at its core is nothing but fake news at this point.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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Demosthenes81
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In reply to agent-maroon • 12:00p, 5/21/22
AG
agent-maroon said:
Is UAWeapons saying that they geolocated it from the photographers pics? Awesome if so
Dumbass photographer and dumbass artillery crew. Shoot, Shoot, Scoot. repeat.
Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
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3rd and 2
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1:14p, 5/21/22
AG
Anyone heard about a Russian break out or punch through in Popasna?
.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Rossticus • 1:24p, 5/21/22
AG
By "special military operation" she means ethnic cleansing and annexation.
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Demosthenes81
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In reply to 3rd and 2 • 1:28p, 5/21/22
AG
3rd and 2 said:
Anyone heard about a Russian break out or punch through in Popasna?
This harkens back to WW2 with both sides trying mutual encirclements.

Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
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CondensedFogAggie
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1:58p, 5/21/22
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CondensedFogAggie
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2:28p, 5/21/22
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AGS-R-TUFF
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In reply to CondensedFogAggie • 2:31p, 5/21/22
AG
CondensedFoggyAggie said:
This trend of Russian strategic facilities spontaneously combusting could begin to really add up.
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Waffledynamics
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3:58p, 5/21/22
AG

Quote:
The Russian military destroyed the bridge between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk on May 21, - the chief of the Luhansk regional military administration Sergey Gaidai reported


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/21-may-the-russian-military-destroyed-the-bridge-between

Severodonetsk is in serious trouble.
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AggieLit
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4:58p, 5/21/22
Things haven't looked very good at all since the bridge crossing victory a week ago. Russia is rolling in all directions from Popasna and surrounding Sieverodonetsk and Lyman. The push to shell Belgorod seems halted and the rumored attack from the west on Izium hasn't materialized.

Someone tell me I'm wrong. What gives me hope is that we usually only hear about Ukrainian victories a few days after the fact.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to AggieLit • 5:50p, 5/21/22
AG
AggieLit said:
Things haven't looked very good at all since the bridge crossing victory a week ago. Russia is rolling in all directions from Popasna and surrounding Sieverodonetsk and Lyman. The push to shell Belgorod seems halted and the rumored attack from the west on Izium hasn't materialized.

Someone tell me I'm wrong. What gives me hope is that we usually only hear about Ukrainian victories a few days after the fact.
War is chaos and there is an ebb and flow of battles. For the most part the line is stagnant. Orcs have pushed east at Poposna but UKR pushed back heavily at Kharkiv.

On Oryx in the last 24 hours Orcs have lost 23 pieces of equipment to 6 on the UKR side. Thats still a good ratio and of course one day of data is certainly not enough to prove a positive trend. That said the AVG since April 19th minus a couple of missing dates in my spreadsheet is 4.36 Orc losses to 1 UKR loss. I would define that as winning but still at significant sacrifice that must remain at the forefront of everyone's mind.

This isn't over for awhile and likely UKR needs to destroy another 20 BTGs or10,000 ORCS before they are recalled to mother russia. As of 90 days in orcs have lost on average 40 pieces of equipment per day. If we assume 60 per BTG and at a future loss rate of 15 per day, it will take another 80 days of combat. As long as orcs cant control the skies, UKR keeps knocking down their drones AND western Aid continues to flow this will happen. In the mean time, many needless horrific civilian deaths will occur, infrastructure will continue to get destroyed, and food prices/availability is going to be problematic on a global scale as these dates get into harvest and or spring planting in the southern hemisphere, where fertilizer will likely be too late, as the burials for the dead will still be ongoing and safe passage of imports/exports still at risk or lack of infrastructure an issue for some time even after a cease fire.

Note edit; my math here has not taken into account russian replacement rate but I did use more conservative figures to what has occurred over the last 90 days.
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