***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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JFABNRGR
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In reply to MeatDr • 7:10a, 5/15/22
AG
MeatDr said:



The logistics truck imbalance doesn't eactly confirm UKR strategy of prioritizing supply targets. First off we are in UKR so some UKR supplies were prestaged and didn't require transport. Second and likely most influential is that UKR has decentralized supply, or created logistics system that uses just about everything from a bike to a grain truck and not as easily identifiable, thirdly the stupid russians even 90 days in continue to park there soft vehicles right next to things that go boom, which may look like truck was targeted but in reality they often get destroyed by secondary explosions. The trucks are also vulnerable to attack by almost any weapon and to an individual where armor generally requires more specialized anti-armor weapons.

Early on I thought 3:1 was a stalemate but anything higher than 3:1 UKR would be winning but at great cost. I look forward to hearing further news of massive losses by the russians.
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benchmark
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7:35a, 5/15/22
AG
For this Ukrainian offensive to have a chance, they'll need logistics beyond what we've seen. This won't be a "fighting retreat" battle like Kharkiv or Kiev … this would be a Russian do or die stand. Meat grinder.

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MeatDr
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7:38a, 5/15/22
AG
Certainly brings home the reality of day to day life there. Points for honesty.
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TheGroupGuy
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 9:25a, 5/15/22
Phillip O'Brien is a great follow on twitter
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AggieLit
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In reply to MeatDr • 9:34a, 5/15/22
MeatDr said:
Certainly brings home the reality of day to day life there. Points for honesty.


I love the formality. Has a London in the Blitz feel. "Some people are afraid of missiles, but we at the St. Regis prize service above all." And they have fully earned that comparison.

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74OA
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9:38a, 5/15/22
AG

(SIAP)
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Sea Speed
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 10:41a, 5/15/22
AG
I just think it is crazy how Russia has seemed to not have had the upper hand at all in this thing. Like since day one they have had their pee pees slapped repeatedly. I know this thread is anti Russia but even so you would expect at least something positive to happen and be posted about them. I dont recall really any major positive happening for Russia while Ukraine has had major Ws regularly.
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lb sand
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In reply to Sea Speed • 10:44a, 5/15/22
AG
They've smashed marioupul, taken and held Kherson. Don't know for how long though. Somewhat established land bridge to crimea.
Relocated massive numbers of home appliances.

They're not ready to pack up and go home just yet.

All that said, I'm totally hoping Uke kicks them all the way out to pre-2014 borders.
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Sea Speed
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In reply to lb sand • 10:55a, 5/15/22
AG
Idk, maybe i don't consider leveling a city as a massive W. I mean anyone with enough explosives can do the same thing. It takes no tactical skill to lob rockets all day and night.

I get what you're saying though.
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74OA
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In reply to lb sand • 11:20a, 5/15/22
AG
Texicurean said:
They've smashed marioupul, taken and held Kherson. Don't know for how long though. Somewhat established land bridge to crimea.
Relocated massive numbers of home appliances.

They're not ready to pack up and go home just yet.

All that said, I'm totally hoping Uke kicks them all the way out to pre-2014 borders.
Destroyed Ukraine's economy
Destroyed Ukraine's infrastructure
Made hundreds of thousands homeless
Killed tens of thousands of civilians
Killed (probably) tens of thousands of soldiers
Mentally traumatized millions
Displaced millions
Etc.

Putin wants to destroy Ukraine as a nation, so these are Russian accomplishments, too........
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Ulysses90
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In reply to Sea Speed • 11:24a, 5/15/22
AG
Sea Speed said:
Idk, maybe i don't consider leveling a city as a massive W. I mean anyone with enough explosives can do the same thing. It takes no tactical skill to lob rockets all day and night.

I get what you're saying though.


You're correct. Destroying infrastructure can produce a military victory by at least two means; undermining the enemy's will to fight an causing surrender to avert the higher cost or through depriving the enemy of war materiel produced by that infrastructure.

The Russians' ruthless brutality and boundless bloodlust has made it evident that surrender isn't an option i.e. die fighting or on your knees. The deprivation of war making capacity from leveling Mariupol has been mitigated if not completely overcome through foreign assistance to Ukraine.

The Russian artillery and bombing campaign serves no purpose at this point beyond being an outlet for their hatred of Ukraine. Russia destroying Ukrainian cities while failing to defeat or even slow Ukrainian advances bears a striking historical parallel to Hitler giving priority on railroads to trains sending Jews to concentration camps over trains carrying equipment and troops to fight the allies. Hatred consumed Hitler and it is consuming Putin and his sycophants.

If Ukraine succeeds in isolating the Izyum pocket they may undertake a destruction of the Russian forces that is similar to what the Soviets did to the Germans in Operation Bagration. I wouldn't hold it against them if they did.
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MouthBQ98
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11:30a, 5/15/22
AG
I still say cutting off izyum from the west and se would be ideal. Let broken morale, lack of supplies, and the knowledge of being cut off cause a mass capitulation
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Ulrich
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11:40a, 5/15/22
Russia made most of their gains pretty early. Got to the outskirts of Kyiv and Kharkiv, took Izium and Kherson, besieged Azovstal, occupied Donbas and adjacent territory all by April 1.

Since their early successes, they've retreated from Kyiv and Kharkiv, Azovstal is still resisting, and their offensives have largely bogged down. They are trying desperately to get enough forces together to get back on the offensive, but their organization and logistics don't appear to be up to the task. Losing many generals and other senior officers early may have something to do with this. Their encirclement out of Izium is in danger of being encircled itself. Ukraine is making noises about blowing the bridge into Crimea. The Russians have shelled Odessa and blew up a major bridge nearby show progress, but they haven't been able to follow up in any meaningful way because their naval forces are vulnerable to drones and missiles. And Ukraine is undoubtedly losing soldiers, but they are gaining superior equipment and training so their effective strength is likely increasing.
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EastSideAg2002
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In reply to MouthBQ98 • 11:46a, 5/15/22
MouthBQ98 said:
I still say cutting off izyum from the west and se would be ideal. Let broken morale, lack of supplies, and the knowledge of being cut off cause a mass capitulation
Are the russians even allowed to surrender with that size of force there? I get the feeling that putin would rather lose every soldier there than surrender to a lesser people.
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Ulrich
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11:47a, 5/15/22
There are still several scenarios in play. One is that this remains trench warfare dominated by artillery and raids. That could last for years.

Another is that the Russians collapsing logistics and morale leads to mass retreats when they get a hint that well-armed and highly motivated Ukrainian forces are attacking their supply lines.

The Ukrainians are now the ones who can focus forces on a small number of objectives while the Russians are trying to defend a wide front. If Ukraine proves that they can complete a large encirclement at Izium (capturing additional weapons and materiel in the process), that will weigh heavily on other exposed pockets.
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Ulysses90
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In reply to Ulrich • 12:11p, 5/15/22
AG
Ulrich said:
There are still several scenarios in play. One is that this remains trench warfare dominated by artillery and raids. That could last for years.

Another is that the Russians collapsing logistics and morale leads to mass retreats when they get a hint that well-armed and highly motivated Ukrainian forces are attacking their supply lines.

The Ukrainians are now the ones who can focus forces on a small number of objectives while the Russians are trying to defend a wide front. If Ukraine proves that they can complete a large encirclement at Izium (capturing additional weapons and materiel in the process), that will weigh heavily on other exposed pockets.


The time that defensive trench warfare can be continued drops dramatically when time or proximity fuzed shells are available. The debut of time fuzes that allow for artillery airburst seven meters above the ground during the battle for Okinawa was a game changer. Trenches no longer provided protection and theyhad to be covered with layers of timbers and sandbags. That's hard to do once the fighting has begun.

At the beginning of the war, it seems that both the Russians and Ukrainians had allowed all of their time fuzes to go bad without replacement. They have a short shelf life.

Now, the Ukrainians probably have a lot of time fuzes for their new 155mm shells. If it were me, I would be shipping them all of the MTSQ, ET, and VT fuzes that are getting close to the end of their shelf life.

On the flipside, if the Russians can get their TOS-1A Buratinos in range of Ukrainian defensive positions it would be devastating. Fortunately they only have a relatively short range.
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benchmark
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1:05p, 5/15/22
AG
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benchmark
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1:18p, 5/15/22
AG
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to benchmark • 1:35p, 5/15/22
AG
benchmark said:
Wow. Fairly large capacity drone carrying at least 4 of what look like mortar rounds, dropped from 150M AGL. What a rude awakening for those two sleeping by the armor. The guy at 10-11 o'clock looks like he may be firing in all directions not sure of what hit them. Last crew member chooses poorly trying to evac from what will be his coffin.
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aggiehawg
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1:44p, 5/15/22
AG


That's a change in attitude.
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EastSideAg2002
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:56p, 5/15/22
aggiehawg said:


Nice loser's speech, $#$hole.
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Rossticus
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1:57p, 5/15/22

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Rossticus
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2:08p, 5/15/22
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74OA
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:29p, 5/15/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Necessary, but a shame as it represents a little more of Ukraine destroyed defending itself, while Russia sits essentially untouched.

There has to be a way to use the $300B of Russian money frozen in US banks to help pay to rebuild Ukraine.

Yeah, I know IL say there's no existing legal mechanism to take seized sanctioned assets and transfer them to other parties.

But there's plenty of legal precedent authorizing reparations against those who initiate wars of aggression, so couldn't that separate judgement include the taking of seized sanctioned assets in payment of war damages?
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MeatDr
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2:34p, 5/15/22
AG

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Rossticus
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In reply to 74OA • 2:37p, 5/15/22
I think what you'll see is us providing generous reconstruction assistance and then paying ourselves back with retention/liquidation of seized assets we've already acquired. I suspect that this is our plan with regard to a significant chunk of the military aid as well. I believe that this is why you don't see hardly any Rs pushing back on the recent assistance package.
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Funky Winkerbean
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:43p, 5/15/22
AG
What kind of assets?
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74OA
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In reply to Funky Winkerbean • 2:47p, 5/15/22
AG
Funky Winkerbean said:
What kind of assets?
For starters, $300B in Russian cash currently frozen in US banks.
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74OA
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:52p, 5/15/22
AG
Rossticus said:
I think what you'll see is us providing generous reconstruction assistance and then paying ourselves back with retention/liquidation of seized assets we've already acquired. I suspect that this is our plan with regard to a significant chunk of the military aid as well. I believe that this is why you don't see hardly any Rs pushing back on the recent assistance package.
I'm not sure that would have basis in IL. The US is not an injured party from Putin's aggression, at least not in the traditional sense, so I'm not sure how we'd legally take Russian funds. I'd think a reparations judgement would take Russian assets for direct compensation to Ukraine?

Hence the question in my OP above.
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K2-HMFIC
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In reply to 74OA • 3:04p, 5/15/22
74OA said:
Rossticus said:
I think what you'll see is us providing generous reconstruction assistance and then paying ourselves back with retention/liquidation of seized assets we've already acquired. I suspect that this is our plan with regard to a significant chunk of the military aid as well. I believe that this is why you don't see hardly any Rs pushing back on the recent assistance package.
I'm not sure that would have basis in IL. The US is not an injured party from Putin's aggression, at least not in the traditional sense, so I'm not sure how we'd legally take Russian funds. I'd think a reparations judgement would take Russian assets for direct compensation to Ukraine?

Hence the question in my OP.


We passed a law already that made it legal…furthermore, there's about two centuries of laws passed that also provide precedent.
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txags92
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:07p, 5/15/22
AG
aggiehawg said:


That's a change in attitude.


I wonder if the folks in Mariupol feel safer?
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74OA
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In reply to K2-HMFIC • 3:09p, 5/15/22
AG
K2-HMFIC said:
74OA said:
Rossticus said:
I think what you'll see is us providing generous reconstruction assistance and then paying ourselves back with retention/liquidation of seized assets we've already acquired. I suspect that this is our plan with regard to a significant chunk of the military aid as well. I believe that this is why you don't see hardly any Rs pushing back on the recent assistance package.
I'm not sure that would have basis in IL. The US is not an injured party from Putin's aggression, at least not in the traditional sense, so I'm not sure how we'd legally take Russian funds. I'd think a reparations judgement would take Russian assets for direct compensation to Ukraine?

Hence the question in my OP.


We passed a law already that made it legal…furthermore, there's about two centuries of laws passed that also provide precedent.
Legally taking sanctioned assets, or legally taking assets in settlement of a separate reparations judgement?

As I said earlier, taking for reparations has plenty of historical precedent, but all I've seen is articles with international lawyers shaking their heads at suggestions for permanently taking assets seized under sanctions.
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K2-HMFIC
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In reply to 74OA • 3:15p, 5/15/22
74OA said:
K2-HMFIC said:
74OA said:
Rossticus said:
I think what you'll see is us providing generous reconstruction assistance and then paying ourselves back with retention/liquidation of seized assets we've already acquired. I suspect that this is our plan with regard to a significant chunk of the military aid as well. I believe that this is why you don't see hardly any Rs pushing back on the recent assistance package.
I'm not sure that would have basis in IL. The US is not an injured party from Putin's aggression, at least not in the traditional sense, so I'm not sure how we'd legally take Russian funds. I'd think a reparations judgement would take Russian assets for direct compensation to Ukraine?

Hence the question in my OP.


We passed a law already that made it legal…furthermore, there's about two centuries of laws passed that also provide precedent.
Legally taking sanctioned assets, or legally taking assets in settlement of a separate reparations judgement?

As I said earlier, taking for reparations has plenty of historical precedent, but all I've seen is articles with international lawyers shaking their heads at suggestions for permanently taking assets seized under sanctions.



So, by your definition, we should not have seized Iran's assets in '79?

We weren't at war with them either.
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74OA
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In reply to K2-HMFIC • 3:24p, 5/15/22
AG
K2-HMFIC said:
74OA said:
K2-HMFIC said:
74OA said:
Rossticus said:
I think what you'll see is us providing generous reconstruction assistance and then paying ourselves back with retention/liquidation of seized assets we've already acquired. I suspect that this is our plan with regard to a significant chunk of the military aid as well. I believe that this is why you don't see hardly any Rs pushing back on the recent assistance package.
I'm not sure that would have basis in IL. The US is not an injured party from Putin's aggression, at least not in the traditional sense, so I'm not sure how we'd legally take Russian funds. I'd think a reparations judgement would take Russian assets for direct compensation to Ukraine?

Hence the question in my OP.


We passed a law already that made it legal…furthermore, there's about two centuries of laws passed that also provide precedent.
Legally taking sanctioned assets, or legally taking assets in settlement of a separate reparations judgement?

As I said earlier, taking for reparations has plenty of historical precedent, but all I've seen is articles with international lawyers shaking their heads at suggestions for permanently taking assets seized under sanctions.



So, by your definition, we should not have seized Iran's assets in '79?

We weren't at war with them either.
I don't have a definition. I asked the question in my OP looking for an authoritative response, not a debate.

IIRC, we legally seized Iranian assets under sanctions, but did not permanently take them, which is what I'm asking about.
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Ulysses90
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In reply to 74OA • 3:44p, 5/15/22
AG
We took the DDGs that the Shah had ordered and made them part of the US Navy. Then whenthey were decommissioned we sold them to other countries.
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