***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

8,103,285 Views | 48793 Replies | Last: 52 min ago by PJYoung
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Waffledynamics
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AG
Rossticus said:








Speak The Truth agrees with this late in the video. I predict the Ukrainians will either retreat from Severodonetsk or be surrounded within a week or two.

Jayhawk
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The Russians are grinding them and adding territory. The Ukrainian counterattacks have been localized and have yet to really threaten any significant number of Russian troops with encirclement. My uninformed impression is that the Ukrainians should be okay on gear, weapons, and ammo thanks to western assistance, but trained soldiers formed into cohesive and effective combat formations may become a more difficult commodity to replace as this thing grinds on. The Russian Army is incompetent, just as it has always been pretty much since there has been a Russian army, but they can still deliver an enormous amount of pain drawn out over time. The Ukrainians' fighting spirit may not break.. but their EU backers, particularly the Germans, French, and to a lesser extent the Italians, I would be much less confident of. The old bear might be able to steamroll its way into a fait accompli in the Donbas, perhaps trade back Kherson as leverage etc. for some kind of negotiated settlement that the Euros will try and force upon Zelensky .. particularly if there is a global equities collapse and LNG remains sky high heading into the winter...
74OA
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AG
Jayhawk said:

The Russians are grinding them and adding territory. The Ukrainian counterattacks have been localized and have yet to really threaten any significant number of Russian troops with encirclement. My uninformed impression is that the Ukrainians should be okay on gear, weapons, and ammo thanks to western assistance, but trained soldiers formed into cohesive and effective combat formations may become a more difficult commodity to replace as this thing grinds on. The Russian Army is incompetent, just as it has always been pretty much since there has been a Russian army, but they can still deliver an enormous amount of pain drawn out over time. The Ukrainians' fighting spirit may not break.. but their EU backers, particularly the Germans, French, and to a lesser extent the Italians, I would be much less confident of. The old bear might be able to steamroll its way into a fait accompli in the Donbas, perhaps trade back Kherson as leverage etc. for some kind of negotiated settlement that the Euros will try and force upon Zelensky .. particularly if there is a global equities collapse and LNG remains sky high heading into the winter...
I think the Ukrainian counterattacks from Kharkiv are aimed at interdicting the critical rail line supplying the Russian forces around the Izyum front rather than attempting an encirclement.
FamousAgg
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Russian soldiers reportedly refusing to return to the front.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/12/they-were-furious-the-russian-soldiers-refusing-to-fight-in-ukraine
Rossticus
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I think things currently hinge on Ukrainian ability to interdict supply routes in the north. This is the same movie we've seen before. Trade space for time while probing for weak points that eventually allow them to maneuver and sever logistical flows and destroy command centers. Then move to regain lost ground while digging in. The key will be the speed of deployment and capability of whatever blocking force Russia tries to insert.

Ukraine is fighting like Mayweather while Russia is fighting like Foreman.
Rossticus
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FamousAgg
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I don't doubt it. Wouldn't It will be funny when Russia turns to Europe for relief from China.
Rossticus
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BattleGrackle said:

I don't doubt it. Wouldn't It will be funny when Russia turns to Europe for relief from China.


I'd pay to be in that meeting.
Rossticus
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Pivoting back to Nazis, I see…

" Neo-Nazis carry out punitive raids in the Kharkiv region"

Rossticus
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Tulsi prime time in Russia.

Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Worth a try, I guess?

CondensedFogAggie
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74OA said:

Jayhawk said:

The Russians are grinding them and adding territory. The Ukrainian counterattacks have been localized and have yet to really threaten any significant number of Russian troops with encirclement. My uninformed impression is that the Ukrainians should be okay on gear, weapons, and ammo thanks to western assistance, but trained soldiers formed into cohesive and effective combat formations may become a more difficult commodity to replace as this thing grinds on. The Russian Army is incompetent, just as it has always been pretty much since there has been a Russian army, but they can still deliver an enormous amount of pain drawn out over time. The Ukrainians' fighting spirit may not break.. but their EU backers, particularly the Germans, French, and to a lesser extent the Italians, I would be much less confident of. The old bear might be able to steamroll its way into a fait accompli in the Donbas, perhaps trade back Kherson as leverage etc. for some kind of negotiated settlement that the Euros will try and force upon Zelensky .. particularly if there is a global equities collapse and LNG remains sky high heading into the winter...
I think the Ukrainian counterattacks from Kharkiv are aimed at interdicting the critical rail line supplying the Russian forces around the Izyum front rather than attempting an encirclement.
Also, they're probably waiting for the majority of their 200+ modern artillery pieces to get in position. Not to mention counterbattery radars, switchblades, the 200 polish tanks etc.

Why waste lives and material when you'll have overwhelming firepower soon? The Russians also probably have the attack routes dialed into their artillery as its still mud season(I think)

Keep softening them up with hit and run teams, keep hitting them with drones, mine every road they travel on.
Rossticus
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ABATTBQ11
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AG
I think Europe is in a do or die position now. If they abandon Ukraine, their populace is going to be pissed based on what Russia has done. They also don't want to appear weak and give Russia the go ahead for future adventurism. I think they've committed to a point where they can't back down.

The Ukrainians' counter attacks are also making some good progress. If they can cut Russian rail supply in the northeast, they can cripple their efforts in the south. Even if they can get their artillery in range, they can do serious damage. The Russians are making slow progress, but it's costly. There's a documented half BTG in that river crossing above. As much as Russia is grinding, they're getting ground too. Their capabilities are degrading while Ukraine is getting better weapons. I think once more NATO weapons start hitting the front and Ukraine gets better trained, they will be elevating their capabilities. Even if Ukraine gives up ground now, I think they are in a better strategic position overall.
Rossticus
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It's 10:55 pm and Russia is still crazy and butt hurt.

Full Thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1524816982289309697.html




Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Austria raising hell now? Austria. You kiddin' me?

CondensedFogAggie
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ABATTBQ11
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AG
Hahaha
92AG10
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AG
Jayhawk said:

The Russians are grinding them and adding territory. The Ukrainian counterattacks have been localized and have yet to really threaten any significant number of Russian troops with encirclement. My uninformed impression is that the Ukrainians should be okay on gear, weapons, and ammo thanks to western assistance, but trained soldiers formed into cohesive and effective combat formations may become a more difficult commodity to replace as this thing grinds on. The Russian Army is incompetent, just as it has always been pretty much since there has been a Russian army, but they can still deliver an enormous amount of pain drawn out over time. The Ukrainians' fighting spirit may not break.. but their EU backers, particularly the Germans, French, and to a lesser extent the Italians, I would be much less confident of. The old bear might be able to steamroll its way into a fait accompli in the Donbas..


I think this is actually reversed. It is Russia that is being ground up. There is no equipment to replace losses. The tracker now shows confirmed Russian combat vehicle losses beyond the 3,600 mark. Given the impact of sanctions, there is simply no reserve to call upon.

The manning situation isn't any better. Russia committed the bulk of its ground combat forces from the onset, including units that would be critical for training conscripts under a mobilization. There is a huge difference between a "filled uniform" and trained and capable infantryman, artilleryman, tankers and pilots. Without skilled fighters, Russian forces may not be able to hold what limited gains they have now. It has already happened around the capitol, in the north and now in parts of the east. Combat just breaks you down in ways people can't understand.

Russia's clock is ticking…
ABATTBQ11
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AG
Some battalion commander just became a company commander
Rossticus
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AlaskanAg99
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Russian troops don't want to be there.

Ukes fighting for their survival.

Heavy equipment is now just starting to move in and they've decimated the Russians with either comparable equipment or MANPADS.

Drone assisted artillery is now about to completely **** Russian troops.

However, Russia will become more brutal. Leveling everything they can. This will still be extremely destructive for civilians and recovery will take a long time.
ABATTBQ11
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AG
Is that the tank equivalent of pink mist?
CondensedFogAggie
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Ukraine volunteers make armor, military equipment


Quote:

Just 30 miles from the war's front line, volunteers at an old industrial complex produce everything from body armor to camouflage nets to support Ukrainian soldiers as the fight against the Russian invasion continues.
CondensedFogAggie
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Such a pointless ****ing war
CondensedFogAggie
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Quote:

"Today, I got a call and was told that my husband had died. They said that his body is there, but they can't say when it will be brought to me because Mariupol is completely blocked. I won't believe it until I see him in the coffin", she says. 2/9

"My world was first shattered when Lyosha decided to return to serve with Azov. We lived together as a family for only a year and a half, our child was one year old, and we were given an apartment from the city: live and be happy, man," Tamara continues. 3/9

But no. Her husband was drawn back to the war, to his brothers. There was a thirst for revenge for lost friends. She saw that nothing she had could keep him: not their child, not an apartment, not her love, nothing. 4/9

And Tamara fell into the abyss. Her nest, her family, her world - everything fell apart into small pieces. Being the wife of a soldier is a very difficult task. You are more worried without a husband than with. You have constant anxiety for his life. 5/9

But he couldn't not go his own way anymore. His appointment called him. And it would be much worse for him in the rear than there in Mariupol - she knew that for sure. 6/9

And so, on April 9, when she received a call from the Azov Patronage Service, Tamara's world collapsed for the second time. And then it seemed to her that it was final. There was no need to collapse anymore. She is Mariupol: everything has been desecrated and burned down. 7/9

She walks around the city, eats cakes, laughs at her son, meets a friend, and has even ordered a door to the bathroom, but inside she is Mariupol. 8/9

"My wish now is one thing: to bring my husband's body to me. That's all, my love, your hell is over. I hope you are not in pain anymore, you are warm, quiet and calm. And my hell is just beginning…" 9/9
Again such a pointless ****ing war. I hope they bring him back home to her, may he rest in peace.
Rossticus
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ABATTBQ11 said:

Is that the tank equivalent of pink mist?


About as close as you'll get and still be able to operate freely in the same zip code after it's over.
CondensedFogAggie
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CondensedFogAggie
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Obviously still extremely dangerous a dangerous war for Ukrainian troops
AlaskanAg99
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AG
From Russias perspective this isn't a pointless war. This is a war for survival.

Dying demographics.
Paranoid fear of invasion (supported by history)
Massive natural resources, but very weak defense.

Russia needs security, population and the O&G + Ag resources from Ukraine to keep the EU under their boot and addicted by cheap resources.

Ukraine was supposed to be pushover with very little international objection (also based on recent history).

Oops.
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