***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

8,101,460 Views | 48785 Replies | Last: 27 min ago by Waffledynamics
CondensedFogAggie
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Europe Plans to Boost Ukraine's Food Exports Using Land Routes


Quote:

The European Commission will consider a strategy on Wednesday that would address technical and bureaucratic initiatives to speed up the shipping of vegetable oils, corn and wheat, some of Ukraine's key exports

Ukraine's agricultural and food sector represents almost 10% of its GDP. Last year, the country exported food products totaling almost $28 billion to the world, including 7 billion euros ($7.4 billion) to the EU. Before the war, around 5 million tons were shipped each month through the Black Sea, which is currently blocked by Russian warships.

The EU and Ukraine are working against the clock to find a solution by summer, as the country needs to release at least 25 million tons stuck in the country in time for the beginning of the next harvest season.

But there are limits to what can be transported overland. The maximum export capacity by rail is estimated at 1.1 million tons of grain per month and 250,000 tons of sunflower oil per month

Absolutely critical, Ukraine needs this more than ever.

https://archive.ph/0SUB6#selection-3495.0-3501.189
HTownAg98
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Seriously you guys. Of all the things that have been going terrible, managing the war in Ukraine has been one of your better efforts give the ****ty hand you were dealt. How about you STFU for a little bit, show a little OPSEC, and stop blabbing about every damn thing.
aunuwyn08
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AG
The thing is within the military and foreign policy communities, those statements are axiomatic.

Putin is about to save the taxpayers hundreds of billions that would have been spent towards anti-russian modernization efforts by demonstrating the weakness of his conventional capabilities in Ukraine.
CondensedFogAggie
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Did not know you could use these as indirect fire, but hope he gave them hell.

And nothing says worldwide logistics support like blasting 112 40mm grenades at the enemy.
CondensedFogAggie
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And in other news...




CondensedFogAggie
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Quote:

Subbotin, the billionaire former top manager of Russian oil producer Lukoil, was found dead on Sunday in a shaman's home in Mytishchi, a city just northeast of Moscow, Russian news agency TASS reported.

Local news outlets reported Subbotin went in search of a hangover cure allegedly involving toad poison

Russian authorities have launched a criminal investigation into his death after his body was found in a basement room used for "Jamaican voodoo rituals,"

Who hasn't taken toad poison to knock off a Sunday morning hangover?

A Jamaican voodoo ritual basement though, well I guess I found my next project.

10thYrSr
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one MEEN Ag said:

My buddy was flying a nice consumer drone in my backyard. He flew it out of signal range and it was autohoming back to my backyard. It was way beyond visual sight when it started coming back. I knew the exact direction it would be coming back from, went outside and looked for it against a clear blue sky.

I still couldn't see it. I missed it and it was directly over my head before we both realized it had completed the autohoming feature.

And this is a drone that is just a consumer level. No mechanical engineering teams working on stealth and sound reduction capabilities beyond just consumer pressures.

I can totally understand those guys not spotting drones.


I fly a sub 250g drone that is used to take high resolution pictures and videos. The prop noise does not make a sound above 200'.

That being said, the propellors used to carry heavy loads like bombs would definitely make a sound up to 750'. Most likely, this trooper was focused on his objective and wasn't listening for drones.
nortex97
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AG
Pretty good Forbes article about Uke's possibly pushing to the Russian border in the NE.

Quote:

Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv, in northeastern Ukraine, appear to have pushed Russian troops east past Ternova, a settlement on the Russian border.

If confirmed, the Ukrainians' liberation of Ternova could mark an inflection point in Russia's 10-week-old wider war in Ukraine. In late March, Ukrainian forces drove Russian invaders from northern Ukraine. Now it appears they're driving the invaders from northeastern Ukraine, too.

Heavy fighting continues around Izium, south of Kharkivand also around Kherson on Ukraine's Black Sea coast. The Russians late last month briefly advanced around Kherson before stalling out. And Russian battalions more recently have captured a few settlements around Izium.

But those Russian gains are in jeopardy owing to Ukrainian gains around Kharkiv, a city of 1.4 million just 25 miles from Russia. As the Russian front collapses around Kharkiv, it could free up powerful Ukrainian brigades to push south, toward Izium, potentially tipping the fighting there in Kyiv's favor.

The general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces was the first to hint at the Russian retreat across the border near Kharkiv. Battalions from the 138th Separate Mechanized Brigade, part of the Russian 6th Combined Arms Army, fled across the border to the Belgorod region of Russia "due to significant losses," the general staff stated on Tuesday.

The U.S. Defense Department's daily Ukraine briefing didn't mention the purported Russian retreat. But heat-detecting satellites operated by NASA did register significant fires around Ternova starting around Fridayfires that could signify intensive fighting. The fires seem to have faded by Monday.
[url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/09/27/an-american-bomber-visited-malaysia-a-bizarre-mix-of-local-jets-rose-to-meet-it/][/url]
If indeed the Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv, including the battle-hardened 92nd and 93rd Mechanized Brigades, have pushed all the way to the Russian border, they not only can prevent Russian artillery from targeting Kharkivthey could fire their own guns at Russian staging areas on the far side of the border.

And they also would be free to pivot right and head toward Izium, 60 miles south of Kharkiv. The Russian army has 99 front-line battalion tactical groups in Ukraine. A dozen of the best BTGs slowly are advancing in fits and starts south and west past Izium.

Think of any Ukrainian brigades rolling toward Izium from the north as a hammer. The Ukrainian brigades south of Izium, including the 4th and 17th Tank Brigades and the 95th Air Assault Brigade, would be the anvil. The conditions are becoming clearer for a major Ukrainian victory.
MeatDr
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AG
Holy smokes!
2000AgPhD
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Looks like a BTR turret - too small for a T-72/T-80, IMO.
Blackbeard94
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AG
deddog said:

Dawg6 said:

ShotOver said:

Ok, I feel compelled to write this. This thread is what I read in the evening and again in the morning. As a former battery commander in Germany from 1985-1989, I have a keen interest in how this is going to turn out. I hope the Russians get everything that's coming to them. Things have not changed in 37 years.
As a former tank company commander in Germany during the same time period, I agree.
Also, tanks remain viable and frankly essential in war. The Russians are demonstrably exactly how not to use tanks. Combined arms, with the armor, infantry, artillery, aviation, air defense, and other multiplying assets worked together are a fearsome force.
I am very surprised at the incredible lack of coordination that the Russian forces are demonstrated. Just completely astonished.
It's like every Russian generation learns the exact same lessons all over again. No one's studied military history. Not even their own.

As an offensive force, the Russian army is a gigantic joke.


It goes beyond military matters. Incompetence, corruption, mendacity. That is Russia today, was Russia yesterday. No change.
TexasAggie_02
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AG
txags92 said:

TexAg1987 said:

Does that camo paint scheme blend in anywhere?
Afghan poppy fields?

Sunflowers
MeatDr
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AG
LMCane
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CondensedFoggyAggie said:

Quote:

Ukrainian armed forces destroyed the latest version of the russian T-90 main battle tank, commonly known as T-90M Proryv (Breakthrough) with the Carl Gustaf m/48 anti-tank weapon.
https://instagr.am/p/CdXtsDBAH7t

out of everything we have seen in the last 78 days that has to be some of the best news from a US Army High command perspective.

even the BEST Russian tank easily cooks off from a low tech and inexpensive manpad.
GAC06
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AG
Not a manpad
2000AgPhD
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No, not a MANPAD, but a golden oldie - first designed n 1946...
Demosthenes81
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AG
Hmmm, something unusual Common thought is that a nitric acid location got bombed.


Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
Faustus
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https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/11/world/ukraine-russia-war-news

Quote:

. . .
A cyberattack that took down satellite communications in Ukraine in the hours before the Feb. 24 invasion was the work of the Russian government, the United States and European nations declared on Tuesday, officially fixing the blame for an attack that rattled Pentagon officials and private industry because it revealed new vulnerabilities in global communications systems.
. . .
"This unacceptable cyberattack is yet another example of Russia's continued pattern of irresponsible behavior in cyberspace, which also formed an integral part of its illegal and unjustified invasion of Ukraine," Josep Borrell Fontelles, the European Union's top diplomat, said in a statement. "Cyberattacks targeting Ukraine, including against critical infrastructure, could spill over into other countries and cause systemic effects putting the security of Europe's citizens at risk."

The attack was focused on a system run by Viasat, a California company that provides high-speed satellite communication services and was used heavily by the Ukrainian government. The attack came a few weeks after some Ukrainian government websites were hit with "wiper" software that destroys data.

The Viasat attack appeared intended to disrupt Ukraine's command and control of its troops during the critical first hours of Russia's invasion, American and European officials said. The hack also disconnected thousands of civilians in Ukraine and across Europe from the internet. It even thwarted the operation of thousands of wind turbines in Germany that relied on Viasat's technology for monitoring conditions and controlling the turbine network.

Viasat immediately launched an investigation and called in Mandiant, the cybersecurity firm, to write a report. While Viasat published initial conclusions in March, the deeper studies have not been made public.

Nonetheless, those initial conclusions were striking: To black out the space-based satellites, the hackers never had to attack the satellites themselves. Instead, they focused on ground-based modems, the devices that communicated with the satellites. One senior government official said that the vulnerability of those systems was "a wake-up call," raising concerns at the Pentagon and American intelligence agencies, which fear that Russia or China could exploit similar vulnerabilities in other critical communications systems.
. . .
But researchers at the cybersecurity firm SentinelOne believed that the Viasat hack was likely the work of the G.R.U., Russia's military intelligence unit. The malware used in the attack, known as AcidRain, shared significant similarities with other malware previously used by the G.R.U., SentinelOne researchers said.
. . .
The AcidRain malware is "a very generic solution, in the scariest sense of the word," said Juan Andres Guerrero-Saade, a principal threat researcher at SentinelOne. "They can take this tomorrow and, if they want to do a supply chain attack against routers or modems in the U.S., AcidRain would work."
. . .
aggiehawg
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AG
WTH is that if not mustard gas.

Rossticus
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Pathetically transparent if this is how Russia attempts things.


GAC06
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AG
aggiehawg said:

WTH is that if not mustard gas.




Yellow smoke like from a smoke grenade? Comes in lots of colors
AgBQ-00
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AG
My understanding is that gas bombs/shells do not create clouds like a mushroom cloud but rather the gas stays relatively low to the ground kind of like a dry ice cloud or fog machine cloud. This looks like a huge explosion at some sort of chemical facility

ETA I could be mistaken.
You do not have a soul. You are a soul that has a body.

We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
aggiehawg
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AG
GAC06 said:

aggiehawg said:

WTH is that if not mustard gas.




Yellow smoke like from a smoke grenade? Comes in lots of colors
Sure went way high up for a smoke grenade. Is that normal?
Demosthenes81
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AG
Rossticus said:

Pathetically transparent if this is how Russia attempts things.



Russia: We have a new oblast.

Ukraine: If you can keep it.
Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
P.U.T.U
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AG
Mustard gas is meant to stay low to the ground. That looks like another nitric acid tank got bombed by the Russians, still deadly though.
AggieChemist
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AG
aggiehawg said:

WTH is that if not mustard gas.




Hard to tell. This looks less like NOx gas than the first shot.
cslifer
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That is a smoke grenade, mustard is blister agent, those guys would not be standing in it with exposed skin like that.
Edit to add: looks like a training exercise, note the plywood barriers/walls common in training areas so they can be easily moved around or replaced.
P.U.T.U
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AG
aggiehawg said:

WTH is that if not mustard gas.


That is a smoke grenade, if it were mustard gas they would be in mopp 4 suits.

This is a nitric acid explosion in Spain, same color as the video and same dispersal pattern

GAC06
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AG
aggiehawg said:

GAC06 said:

aggiehawg said:

WTH is that if not mustard gas.




Yellow smoke like from a smoke grenade? Comes in lots of colors
Sure went way high up for a smoke grenade. Is that normal?

The picture you posted looks like it could be a smoke grenade. The huge red plume posted earlier looks like something blew up on the ground like an ammunition cache
BusterAg
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AG
aggiehawg said:

WTH is that if not mustard gas.


Someone hit the Red Dye food coloring factory that Mars has in Ukraine for M&Ms.
Yep66
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AG
Rossticus
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Russian butthurt denial thread. Cliffs notes: "Most of it won't get there, and if it does they won't know how to use it, and if they do just wait till Russia unties their other hand from behind their back". Comments me laugh.


GAC06
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AG
That's a likely explanation. Looks a lot like the recent Beirut ammonium nitrate explosion
GigEmRangers75455
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MeatDr said:




More Russian equipment turned into submarines.
Rossticus
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Commies have purportedly taken a town to the east of Izyum. They seem to be in an all out sprint to complete a small encirclement. Even if they complete it I'm not sure how they prevent a breakthrough if Ukes interdict their northern supply lines.

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