❗️Social media users share their own vision for how the parade of the Russian army should look. It has been marked by numerous civilian murders, rape, and total looting in Ukraine. #StopRussia pic.twitter.com/r3KQszmJPn

— U24 (@u24_news) May 9, 2022

State TV pundit claimed that Russians would find “no mercy” from their adversaries should the country lose the war, predicting a future of “concentration camps, re-education and mandatory sterilization” imposed as a “final solution” by Moscow’s enemies.https://t.co/Q5Omd6qzmd

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) May 10, 2022

Absolutely fascinating

It's correct: Putin, as it seems, makes no distinction between Russia and Soviet Union. For him and his acolytes the Cold War never ended and now they revenge for a setback of early 1990s. Proven response
is deterrence and containment.

— Andrei V Kozyrev (@andreivkozyrev) May 9, 2022

Denmark sending first batch of 35 units of construction equipment to Ukraine for restoration work

Quote:

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The Danish authorities will send 35 units of construction equipment to Ukraine to carry out restoration work after the destruction from hostilities, said the Ministry of Industry, Business and Financial Affairs of the Kingdom, reported from TASS.

This includes excavators, trucks, trailers for heavy equipment.

"The situation in Ukraine is really terrible, and from the Danish side we want to do everything in our power to help the Ukrainian people," said Minister for Industry, Business and Financial Affairs Simon Kollerup. "Therefore, today we are sending the first batch of construction equipment to the affected cities so that the equipment could help restore the streets on which schools, kindergartens and residential buildings once stood."

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https://anews.az/en/denmark-sending-construction-equipment-to-ukraine-for-restoration-work/

Read today's campaign assessment from @TheStudyofWar & @criticalthreats: #Russian troops in #Ukraine continue to display low morale and poor discipline as fighting in many areas has stalled out against #Ukrainian resistance.

Full update: https://t.co/FPSZMN6QMl pic.twitter.com/Kg4L2fxVfR

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 10, 2022

- Russian forces made marginal gains around #Severodonetsk in the past 24 hours.

- Russian units in #Zaporizhia Oblast are regrouping and will likely receive reinforcements from forces previously deployed in Mariupol. pic.twitter.com/uzdYCAxou0

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 10, 2022

- Russian authorities are likely setting conditions to integrate occupied Ukrainian territories directly into Russia, as opposed to creating proxy “People’s Republics.” pic.twitter.com/p8G5RZsmYz

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 10, 2022

It is 75 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Today I provide an update on Ukraine’s options to exploit a faltering Russian offensive in the east. 1/24 (Image - @UAWeapons) pic.twitter.com/NrB98s7UGH

— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) May 9, 2022

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1523797986706268160.html

Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1523839177585999872.html

Most people underestimate how different is the present from the (recent) past. And that lack of historical thinking leads to underestimating how different the things will be in the (near) future. That's why people presumptuously rule out possibility of sudden and abrupt changes

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) May 10, 2022

A theory. The main reason why we are so bad in predictions is that we seek psychological comfort more than intellectual integrity. We are so attached to the delusions of "consistency" and "immutability" that it destroys our ability to make accurate prognoses in a dynamic world

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) May 10, 2022

A guy I know, a driver, recently managed to enter Russian-occupied Mariupol.
He got back absolutely horrified. Says the city is absolutely ruined. Trash and the smell of dead bodies are everywhere except for a couple of cleaned up streets where Russians film their parades.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 9, 2022

Rossticus said:

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Russia’s Kharkiv front continues to disintegrate. Rapidly. https://t.co/hP8mPo3jTp

— Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 (@michaeldweiss) May 10, 2022

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Maybe they meant faint rather than feint for these attempted incursions followed by frantic withdrawals ending in quiescence.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dan-carlins-hardcore-history-addendum/id1326393257?i=1000544785111

Fitch said:

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lb3 said:

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SIAP:

This is going to be a long thread🧵 on Ukraine's unique 21st century fighting style based on Uber style C3I software, why Western intelligence is plug ignorant of it due to CROWDSTRIKE cybersecurity firm, & the implications of SpaceX's Starlink satcom for the future...

1/ pic.twitter.com/k5DK3G7AhB

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) May 9, 2022

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1523791050313433088.html

Good read on Ukraine's artillery targeting software and use of Starlink.

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The last couple of posts about Starlink are eye opening. Crazy to consider the far reaching results that one decision to redirect shipments to Ukraine in the days immediately following the invasion. An argument could be made that the war may have already been over but for those antennas and the information uplink to the world and within the war zone they unlocked.

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So he mentions in this that for the US Army it is an average of an hour from fire support request to string pull? Saying it is due to JAG Corps interference with collateral analysis etc. WTH!!???!!!?? Is this true? Anyone with in field experience that can comment on this?

AgBQ-00 said:

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Fitch said:

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lb3 said:

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SIAP:

This is going to be a long thread🧵 on Ukraine's unique 21st century fighting style based on Uber style C3I software, why Western intelligence is plug ignorant of it due to CROWDSTRIKE cybersecurity firm, & the implications of SpaceX's Starlink satcom for the future...

1/ pic.twitter.com/k5DK3G7AhB

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) May 9, 2022

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1523791050313433088.html

Good read on Ukraine's artillery targeting software and use of Starlink.

---

The last couple of posts about Starlink are eye opening. Crazy to consider the far reaching results that one decision to redirect shipments to Ukraine in the days immediately following the invasion. An argument could be made that the war may have already been over but for those antennas and the information uplink to the world and within the war zone they unlocked.

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So he mentions in this that for the US Army it is an average of an hour from fire support request to string pull? Saying it is due to JAG Corps interference with collateral analysis etc. WTH!!???!!!?? Is this true? Anyone with in field experience that can comment on this?

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It's situationally dependent. I suspect that getting permission to drop a 155 round on the side of a mountain during an active firefight would be much quicker than getting permission to have a Reaper fire a hellfire through the roof of a Toyota in a busy urban market.

The movie Eye in the Sky shows some of this approval process.

Elon's thesis in a nutshell: superior technology wins over tactical advantages.

Podcast goes into details regarding technology advantages by the West during WW2.

Russia invades Ukraine on 2/24/22. His tweet on March 1st could be his way of foreshadowing the beginning of the first Starlink war. Since 3/1/22, SpaceX has launched 6 more Starlink missions each deploying around 50 Starlink satellites. SpaceX also launched NROL-85 mission on April 19 " to deliver a critical national security payload, which will provide our warfighters and decision-makers with vital intelligence data."

The WaPo details that: "The weapons and equipment, to be purchased from U.S. companies, represent a separate category of military assistance than the vast quantities of armaments that the United States already has provided Ukraine from existing Pentagon stocks."

Pentagon undersecretary for acquisition and sustainment Bill LaPlante has vowed to utilize "all available tools to support Ukraine's armed forces in the face of Russian aggression."

Many Western military analysts have pointed to the game-changing nature of US weapons and intelligence-sharing on the Ukraine battlefield, saying it's greatly slowed and even stalled the Russian advance, also in the east, where Russian forces have focused their current objective on taking the Donbas.

According to further details the system is called the "advanced precision kill weapon system":

This round includes $22.6 million worth of 70mm rockets known as the advanced precision kill weapon system that can be fired from helicopters. The advanced precision kill system, for instance, works by converting low-cost ammunition into guided weapons. U.S. forces have used it to supplement the firepower inherent to a variety of aircraft, including helicopters and fighter jets.

www.zerohedge.com

If the technology is close enough in ability, this is absolutely correct. Listening to the podcast right now and he said something related to this in terms of if a new technology is truly making a winning impact. They were talking about WWII tanks and if you'd rather have x number of T-34s or y number of Tigers. Elon said well if your kill ratio is 3 to 1 and it only costs you 2 times as much time/money then you are making a difference. And it is probably good to keep doing that thing.
Again really simplified but illustrative. But what if the technology he is talking about is "we have it and the other side does not have anything with any similar capabilities"? That is the game changer.

Over simplifying is his motto. That's how he runs his companies. Quite literally.

See raptor V1 with V2

ABATTBQ11 said:

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fantasma said:

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Elon's thesis in a nutshell: superior technology wins over tactical advantages.

Podcast goes into details regarding technology advantages by the West during WW2.

Russia invades Ukraine on 2/24/22. His tweet on March 1st could be his way of foreshadowing the beginning of the first Starlink war. Since 3/1/22, SpaceX has launched 6 more Starlink missions each deploying around 50 Starlink satellites. SpaceX also launched NROL-85 mission on April 19 " to deliver a critical national security payload, which will provide our warfighters and decision-makers with vital intelligence data."

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Elon has a bad habit of oversimplifying complex subjects, and I think he's doing it here, too. Technology is only as useful as its user, and great technology used with poor tactics can fall prey to a determined enemy who knows what he's doing, even if he doesn't always have the weapons to match.

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He may be oversimplifying here too, but isn't, at the base level, the name of the game being able to see your opponent as much as you can, hide yourself from your opponent as best you can, and open communication lines while keeping information as secret as possible?

That is where technology makes the difference, in my opinion.

I do agree advanced weaponry in the hands of someone who doesn't know how to use it isn't as valuable.

There are complications, as Switzerland isn't willing to supply ammunition for Marder APCs and some German officials are concerned about fast depletion of the Bundeswehr's artillery stocks. But Ukraine will take this as a positive sign https://t.co/A9vB9ihc9L

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) May 10, 2022

Rossticus said:

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Russia’s Kharkiv front continues to disintegrate. Rapidly. https://t.co/hP8mPo3jTp

— Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 (@michaeldweiss) May 10, 2022

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Another feint?

Yet another success as Ukraine’s military go on liberating territories northeast of Kharkiv.
I think we indeed should expect our troops to come up to the Russian border in the coming days. pic.twitter.com/IOMGUDTLco

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 10, 2022

ABATTBQ11 said:

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AgBQ-00 said:

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If the technology is close enough in ability, this is absolutely correct. Listening to the podcast right now and he said something related to this in terms of if a new technology is truly making a winning impact. They were talking about WWII tanks and if you'd rather have x number of T-34s or y number of Tigers. Elon said well if your kill ratio is 3 to 1 and it only costs you 2 times as much time/money then you are making a difference. And it is probably good to keep doing that thing.
Again really simplified but illustrative. But what if the technology he is talking about is "we have it and the other side does not have anything with any similar capabilities"? That is the game changer.

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Afghanistan would like a word.

The Russians had plenty of capabilities the mujahadeen didn't, yet they still left. We had plenty of capabilities they didn't, and we also got tired of spending money and left.

And look at the Russians now. They have a lot of technology and capabilities the Ukrainians don't (or didn't until very recently), and yet their tactical use of it is so poor they're getting their asses kicked.

The Moskva is a good example. The Russians have naval capabilities and technologies the Ukrainians don't, yet the Ukrainians better tactical employment of their lower level technology sank a Russian guided missile cruiser and has forced the Russians to completely rethink their naval deployment. All because the Russians did not respect the Ukrainian threat and employed poor tactics with the technology they had.

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Or, the Ukrainians got a super secret message that said fire your missiles at this particular spot and Russian ship go boom.

The Afghan reference is addressed in the simple cost analysis he describes though. And the technology they were using was sufficiently close enough to eventually overcome the advantages because of time and numbers. And in the case of USSR in Afghan, the application of advanced weaponry (MANPADs) completely changed the battlefield.

The technology that is being applied on the side of Ukraine currently is pretty far past what Russia has. Look at the open/unsecured comms that Russia uses and the lack of seemingly actionable intelligence to act nimbly. Or their atrocious supply line issues. All of those technological and tactical shortcomings are being exposed by a country that is using cutting edge comms (starlink, encryption etc., etc., etc.). Cutting edge or near cutting edge drone tech, and highly accurate and actionable intelligence (Moskova, generals dropping like prom dresses, etc. etc.) and we are getting the results we see.

Now If Russia had the capabilities and tactics being applied on the Ukraine side what we see now would look totally different. Which I think is the point he is making.