***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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GAC06
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In reply to MeatDr • 3:35p, 5/7/22
AG
MeatDr said:
Well now we know how the buildings on Snake Island got destroyed.


Maybe the angle makes it look worse but that wasn't exactly textbook
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to LMCane • 3:45p, 5/7/22
AG
LMCane said:
MeatDr said:
Take it for the propaganda it may be, but I also wouldn't be surprised if this was mostly true, especially with how fast Ukraine seems to be recapturing the area around Kharkiv and the big push they are making towards Izyum.



I think a lot of so called "experts" don't know what the heck they are talking about.

The current population of the Russian Federation is 146,048,781 as of Monday, May 2, 2022.

anyone who believes that the Russians are somehow unable to draft tens of thousands of replacements for the 20K casualties they have suffered is delusional.

That's a population of NEARLY ONE HUNDRED FIFTY MILLION people-

and somehow they can't field a million man military if Putin wanted to?!?!


It's a lot more complicated than that. The percentage of those who are fighting aged males suitable for combat shrinks that number considerably.

Even still, you have to train and equip such an army, and your pulling a big chunk of your workforce to do it. That's IF the Russians can even replace much of what they're losing. Sending poorly equipped and barely trained conscripts in against a well equipped and bake hardened adversary on their own terrain is a recipe for disaster.

There are also the political implications. A massive mobilization and conscription will be very unpopular for a war that was supposed to be a, "special operation." They might as well just admit they're losing and there's untold numbers of dead.

It also jeopardizes the propaganda war. You think stories of military failures and war crimes are going to stay hidden when you have 100,0000 conscripts who probably don't even want to be there? Those guys are going to go home and talk.
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74OA
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3:56p, 5/7/22
AG
Today's SITREP. Lots of maps.
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74OA
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4:03p, 5/7/22
AG
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74OA
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4:08p, 5/7/22
AG
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Rossticus
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4:19p, 5/7/22
Russians reporting that Ukraine tried an insane all out assault on snake island and lost a ridiculous amount of men and equipment. Makes no sense and there's no evidence for it but interesting to know what they're shoveling on that side.

They're also running with "Kharkiv and Izyum were just used to fix Ukrainian forces and now we're purposely withdrawing according to plan".


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Sq 17
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In reply to PJYoung • 4:22p, 5/7/22
PJYoung said:
Player To Be Named Later said:
RONA Ag said:


Also need to remember that only approximately 26% of the Russian male population is between the ages of 18 - 44.
Any data on 18-30 conscripting middle aged men who likely have children seems unworkable
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Rossticus
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4:27p, 5/7/22
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DCPD158
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In reply to Rossticus • 4:27p, 5/7/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Russians reporting that Ukraine tried an insane all out assault on snake island and lost a ridiculous amount of men and equipment. Makes no sense and there's no evidence for it but interesting to know what they're shoveling on that side.

They're also running with "Kharkiv and Izyum were just used to fix Ukrainian forces and now we're purposely withdrawing according to plan".


Why would they even assault the island? Have to call BS on this one
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
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1836er
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In reply to Rossticus • 4:30p, 5/7/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Well, off to the gulag for you
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Rossticus
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In reply to DCPD158 • 4:32p, 5/7/22
Agreed. Tankies convinced that it happened because Ukraine is losing and are desperate for a propaganda victory. The meltdown and denial if things continue to go south for them will be interesting to say the least.
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black_ice
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In reply to Rossticus • 4:36p, 5/7/22
Rossticus said:
Agreed. Tankies convinced that it happened because Ukraine is losing and are desperate for a propaganda victory. The meltdown and denial if things continue to go south for them will be interesting to say the least.



I also agree.
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agent-maroon
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In reply to Rossticus • 4:37p, 5/7/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Russians reporting that Ukraine tried an insane all out assault on snake island and lost a ridiculous amount of men and equipment. Makes no sense and there's no evidence for it but interesting to know what they're shoveling on that side.

They're also running with "Kharkiv and Izyum were just used to fix Ukrainian forces and now we're purposely withdrawing according to plan".


Key phrase would be "if accurate". It's not.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Rossticus
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In reply to agent-maroon • 4:39p, 5/7/22
When coming from any Russian ministry, is it ever?
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Waffledynamics
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4:43p, 5/7/22
AG
Can someone add more detail to the idea of "tactical success but a strategic defeat"? I get the concept of "win the battle and lose the war", but I wish he added more detail. Does he just mean they might take it but not hold it?

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Rossticus
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5:07p, 5/7/22
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Rossticus
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5:10p, 5/7/22
Really Russia? Still?

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agent-maroon
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In reply to Rossticus • 5:14p, 5/7/22
AG
Rossticus said:
When coming from any Russian ministry, is it ever?
No...
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Rossticus
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5:34p, 5/7/22
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Rossticus
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5:40p, 5/7/22
Management of expectations in motion

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AgBQ-00
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In reply to Rossticus • 5:44p, 5/7/22
AG
Rossticus said:


That guy had blue eyes<memphisbelle>
You do not have a soul. You are a soul that has a body.

We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
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Rossticus
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5:49p, 5/7/22
Ukraine going to have the third largest military in the world behind China after this is over with. You want to reduce US involvement in Europe? Create a significant military power in Eastern Europe with extreme prejudice toward both Russian aggression AND German complacency… combined with every capable military on the European continent as part of NATO and allied with that power. 2022 turning out to be a very bad year for Russia.

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Rossticus
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5:59p, 5/7/22
Taking is one thing. Retaining is an entirely different matter. Let's see how that goes for them.

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Rossticus
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6:09p, 5/7/22
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Rossticus
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6:12p, 5/7/22
Interesting speculation out of Asia

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aggiehawg
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In reply to Rossticus • 6:20p, 5/7/22
AG
Was just reading today how many carrier groups are concentrated in the China Seas between China, Japan and U.S.
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MeatDr
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6:27p, 5/7/22
AG
Russia is at almost 3,500.
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AlaskanAg99
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6:28p, 5/7/22
AG
There is NO WAY Russia can fight on 2 fronts.
China requires imports to function, those can be strangled off at the 1st island chain.
Best Korea can't be seen as any more threatening using Soviet Era weapons or Chinese junk. Their country is perpetually on the brink of starvation and requires food imports.
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Keegan99
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In reply to Rossticus • 6:30p, 5/7/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Interesting speculation out of Asia


With what Russia has not-already-committed to Ukraine, would US ground forces even be necessary? Maybe a carrier group?

Tend to think that the Baltics, along with the Poles and Scandinavian nations, have enough manpower.

US would only need to perhaps provide materiel.
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MeatDr
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6:34p, 5/7/22
AG
Hope this comes to fruition.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to AlaskanAg99 • 6:47p, 5/7/22
AG
AlaskanAg99 said:
There is NO WAY Russia can fight on 2 fronts.
China requires imports to function, those can be strangled off at the 1st island chain.
Best Korea can't be seen as any more threatening using Soviet Era weapons or Chinese junk. Their country is perpetually on the brink of starvation and requires food imports.


And you can bet best Korean troops would be pissed the moment they see how average south Koreans live.
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Rossticus
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7:01p, 5/7/22
I don't agree with the logic of continuing escalation but I can see how the thought process works from an "Escalate to Deescalate" standpoint.

If your base premise is that Americans are ultimately too nutless to engage in all out war, the way you win is to up the ante to where the only options for America are to back off and let Russia/China have their way or stop them, which results in WW3.
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richardag
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In reply to AgBQ-00 • 7:01p, 5/7/22
AgBQ-00 said:
Fitch said:
This should be one of those no **** Sherlock things.
Agree 100%, seems very dangerous to be leaking this intelligence assistance.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
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Ciboag96
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In reply to richardag • 7:04p, 5/7/22
richardag said:
AgBQ-00 said:
Fitch said:
This should be one of those no **** Sherlock things.
Agree 100%, seems very dangerous to be leaking this intelligence assistance.

Like the Russkies did in Korea and Vietnam? **** em.
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to Keegan99 • 7:30p, 5/7/22
AG
Keegan99 said:
Rossticus said:
Interesting speculation out of Asia


With what Russia has not-already-committed to Ukraine, would US ground forces even be necessary? Maybe a carrier group?

Tend to think that the Baltics, along with the Poles and Scandinavian nations, have enough manpower.

US would only need to perhaps provide materiel.


Such a move would put too much strain on India. A small US or Aussie naval contingent would shut down malacca. India would have to choose, and i don't think they could stay BRIC economically. China / Russia would need to invade Iran and Iraq for oil. Too high of a task to make this world war possible.
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