74OA said:

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Too bad France's election wasn't a month ago. GUNS

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That truck mounted 155 howitzer would be invaluable for shoot and scoot artillery raids. There would likely be learning curve to transition from 152 systems to 155 and all the assorted fire control/direction.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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txags92 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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A better use of such boats might be packing them with explosives to hit that bridge...

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Given the type of construction on that bridge, the uprights were probably designed to take some pretty heavy hits and not fail. You are better targeting some of the suspension rigging and decking to try to make it unusable.

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Hit the spans closer to the water on either end, not the supports.

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A boat small and fast enough to make it to the bridge unchallenged is not going to have the height or enough explosives to reach high enough to damage the spans above it. None of this is a particularly realistic scenario, so the realities of it are probably moot anyway.

Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1521850468313579520.html

May 9, the Victory Day is a crucial symbolic date. We should expect the Victory Parade and Putin's speech to the nation on that day. What is he gonna say? Many are pondering whether he will:

1. Declare war on Ukraine
2. Declare mass mobilisation in Russia

Let's discuss both🧵 pic.twitter.com/LUvqRyUsLu

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) May 4, 2022

ABATTBQ11 said:

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txags92 said:

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Given the type of construction on that bridge, the uprights were probably designed to take some pretty heavy hits and not fail. You are better targeting some of the suspension rigging and decking to try to make it unusable.

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Hit the spans closer to the water on either end, not the supports.

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There are actually 2 bridges and both are recently completed ... the 2-track RR bridge and a 4-lane traffic bridge. The weakest link in both bridges is midspan of the 700 ft steel truss sections ... specifically the upper truss chords. The other spans are 200 ft post-tensioned concrete girder designs. It would take direct hits from multiple 500 lb bombs to take out both bridges.

Rossticus said:

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Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1521850468313579520.html

May 9, the Victory Day is a crucial symbolic date. We should expect the Victory Parade and Putin's speech to the nation on that day. What is he gonna say? Many are pondering whether he will:

1. Declare war on Ukraine
2. Declare mass mobilisation in Russia

Let's discuss both🧵 pic.twitter.com/LUvqRyUsLu

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) May 4, 2022

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So is Putin going to show his face in public at the parade? Or just play a recorded message from the safety of his bunker? Would be a great time to take him out if he does.

Reports of explosions at Melitopol' airbase. Rashist aircraft may have been blown up.https://t.co/NJN3itxrOs

— Michael MacKay (@mhmck) May 5, 2022

I've never been so interested in a Russian parade day (frankly, I've never before been at all interested).

No surprises there....... https://t.co/wHOgIqGyuW

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 5, 2022

Meanwhile on Russian state TV: lawmaker Aleksey Zhuravlyov is arguing that Russia might use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine and get away with it. pic.twitter.com/jBb7EWy7GQ

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) May 5, 2022

#Ukraine: A Russian drone filmed a Ukrainian T-64BV being seriously damaged near Avdiivka, #Donetsk Oblast. As seen, all three crew members left the vehicle. pic.twitter.com/lU5HlWEctb

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) May 5, 2022

Shocked that the guy outside of the tank survived after it took a direct hit. And once again, the guys for Ukraine are amazing at hitting targets from a long ways away.

txags92 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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txags92 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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A better use of such boats might be packing them with explosives to hit that bridge...

---

Given the type of construction on that bridge, the uprights were probably designed to take some pretty heavy hits and not fail. You are better targeting some of the suspension rigging and decking to try to make it unusable.

---

Hit the spans closer to the water on either end, not the supports.

---

A boat small and fast enough to make it to the bridge unchallenged is not going to have the height or enough explosives to reach high enough to damage the spans above it. None of this is a particularly realistic scenario, so the realities of it are probably moot anyway.

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Reading your response got me thinking…

Would it be possible to launch a Uke SOF night time operation with a couple of these high speed boats, giving operators the ability to wire sensitive spots with C4 and then GTFO before detection?

I'm thinking only aircraft could target them, if they attack the middle of the bridge. How long would it take to set the charges? Is this even doable?

txags92 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Meanwhile on Russian state TV: lawmaker Aleksey Zhuravlyov is arguing that Russia might use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine and get away with it. pic.twitter.com/jBb7EWy7GQ

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) May 5, 2022

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There are sympathizers on here saying the same thing.

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The more interesting part of that, I think, is the push back about scaring Russians by talking about using nukesand pointing out that Ukraine is able to strike Belgorod.

Every day Russians know they're not invincible and they're not willing to die for this cause

AGS-R-TUFF said:

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txags92 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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txags92 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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A better use of such boats might be packing them with explosives to hit that bridge...

---

Given the type of construction on that bridge, the uprights were probably designed to take some pretty heavy hits and not fail. You are better targeting some of the suspension rigging and decking to try to make it unusable.

---

Hit the spans closer to the water on either end, not the supports.

---

A boat small and fast enough to make it to the bridge unchallenged is not going to have the height or enough explosives to reach high enough to damage the spans above it. None of this is a particularly realistic scenario, so the realities of it are probably moot anyway.

---

Reading your response got me thinking…

Would it be possible to launch a Uke SOF night time operation with a couple of these high speed boats, giving operators the ability to wire sensitive spots with C4 and then GTFO before detection?

I'm thinking only aircraft could target them, if they attack the middle of the bridge. How long would it take to set the charges? Is this even doable?

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NO.

sneak onto a freighter carrying thousands of tons of something flammable and blow it up while underneath maybe.

On the vehicle bridge from above you could cut 4-6 of the stays (cable from arch to deck) with very little explosives. minutes to set.

The rail bridge arch is tied with tube steel and W flange sections and the critical connections appear to be 25-30' above the deck. 20-30X the amount of explosives and hours to rig climbing around the bridge.

Or sneak on to rail carrying hundreds of tons of explosives and fuel, blow it up while on the bridge.

Literally falls under the definition of genocide. And they're bragging about it. Great.

Russia says that 200,000 children from Donetsk and Luhansk have crossed into its borders and 2,100 in the past 24 hours alone

This is causing more alarm in Ukraine about Russia's forced deportation policy

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) May 5, 2022

When this war is over, and Ukraine is a peaceful, democratic state in the European Union, people are going to look back at the last four months and be shocked at how so many people in Europe and North America denied Ukraine any agency for such a long time.

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 5, 2022

The great lesson of this war so far destroys all these analyses. Ukraine gets to decide Ukraine’s future because it choose to fight for itself and is winning the war. Maybe we should start talking about what Ukraine wants.

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 5, 2022

Another bucket of agency was just filled up. https://t.co/KtWqRvfcJC

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 5, 2022

AGS-R-TUFF said:

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txags92 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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txags92 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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A better use of such boats might be packing them with explosives to hit that bridge...

---

Given the type of construction on that bridge, the uprights were probably designed to take some pretty heavy hits and not fail. You are better targeting some of the suspension rigging and decking to try to make it unusable.

---

Hit the spans closer to the water on either end, not the supports.

---

A boat small and fast enough to make it to the bridge unchallenged is not going to have the height or enough explosives to reach high enough to damage the spans above it. None of this is a particularly realistic scenario, so the realities of it are probably moot anyway.

---

Reading your response got me thinking…

Would it be possible to launch a Uke SOF night time operation with a couple of these high speed boats, giving operators the ability to wire sensitive spots with C4 and then GTFO before detection?

I'm thinking only aircraft could target them, if they attack the middle of the bridge. How long would it take to set the charges? Is this even doable?

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As important as that bridge is to Russia, I would be shocked if there are not armed guards with night vision and snipers stationed on or near it 24/7 ready to shoot potential saboteurs. I agree with the poster above, an air attack is the only real likely avenue for success other than a couple of the suicide mission ideas. And I suspect the air defenses around the bridge are pretty stout for that reason.

JFABNRGR said:

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AGS-R-TUFF said:

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txags92 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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txags92 said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

A better use of such boats might be packing them with explosives to hit that bridge...

---

Given the type of construction on that bridge, the uprights were probably designed to take some pretty heavy hits and not fail. You are better targeting some of the suspension rigging and decking to try to make it unusable.

---

Hit the spans closer to the water on either end, not the supports.

---

A boat small and fast enough to make it to the bridge unchallenged is not going to have the height or enough explosives to reach high enough to damage the spans above it. None of this is a particularly realistic scenario, so the realities of it are probably moot anyway.

---

Reading your response got me thinking…

Would it be possible to launch a Uke SOF night time operation with a couple of these high speed boats, giving operators the ability to wire sensitive spots with C4 and then GTFO before detection?

I'm thinking only aircraft could target them, if they attack the middle of the bridge. How long would it take to set the charges? Is this even doable?

---

NO.

sneak onto a freighter carrying thousands of tons of something flammable and blow it up while underneath maybe.

On the vehicle bridge from above you could cut 4-6 of the stays (cable from arch to deck) with very little explosives. minutes to set.

The rail bridge arch is tied with tube steel and W flange sections and the critical connections appear to be 25-30' above the deck. 20-30X the amount of explosives and hours to rig climbing around the bridge.

Or sneak on to rail carrying hundreds of tons of explosives and fuel, blow it up while on the bridge.

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I think it all a pipe dream to think the bridge can be destroyed with the current assets, but I would get the railroad bridge if I could. That would force the Russians to truck in supplies with trucks which are probably in very short supply trying to support the army.

EXCLUSIVE: U.S. intel helped Ukraine sink Russian flagship Moskva, officials say https://t.co/AqqLrNnRwC via @nbcnews

— Ken Dilanian (@KenDilanianNBC) May 5, 2022

JFABNRGR said:

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AGS-R-TUFF said:

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txags92 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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txags92 said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

A better use of such boats might be packing them with explosives to hit that bridge...

---

Given the type of construction on that bridge, the uprights were probably designed to take some pretty heavy hits and not fail. You are better targeting some of the suspension rigging and decking to try to make it unusable.

---

Hit the spans closer to the water on either end, not the supports.

---

A boat small and fast enough to make it to the bridge unchallenged is not going to have the height or enough explosives to reach high enough to damage the spans above it. None of this is a particularly realistic scenario, so the realities of it are probably moot anyway.

---

Reading your response got me thinking…

Would it be possible to launch a Uke SOF night time operation with a couple of these high speed boats, giving operators the ability to wire sensitive spots with C4 and then GTFO before detection?

I'm thinking only aircraft could target them, if they attack the middle of the bridge. How long would it take to set the charges? Is this even doable?

---

NO.

sneak onto a freighter carrying thousands of tons of something flammable and blow it up while underneath maybe.

On the vehicle bridge from above you could cut 4-6 of the stays (cable from arch to deck) with very little explosives. minutes to set.

The rail bridge arch is tied with tube steel and W flange sections and the critical connections appear to be 25-30' above the deck. 20-30X the amount of explosives and hours to rig climbing around the bridge.

Or sneak on to rail carrying hundreds of tons of explosives and fuel, blow it up while on the bridge.

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Yes, understood. Lots of things to consider. Several days back in this thread I suggested hijacking that monstrosity that's trying to recover the Moskva from Davy Jones locker. Imagine the Russians' faces when you ram the bridge with that ancient bucket of bolts.

txags92 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Meanwhile on Russian state TV: lawmaker Aleksey Zhuravlyov is arguing that Russia might use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine and get away with it. pic.twitter.com/jBb7EWy7GQ

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) May 5, 2022

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There are sympathizers on here saying the same thing.

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I think they can get away with it. I just don't see any Western leader who will be willing to do risk their own soldiers lives over Ukraine.

I think there are three four things holding Putin back:
- The false reports of success that he is most likely getting from his generals
- The complete and utter isolation that will occur - it will go beyond NKorea levels
- The huge influx of conventional weapons and "volunteers" into Ukraine
- There really isn't a "big" Ukrainian military target that he can use a tactical nuke against

Hopefully one of his generals puts a bullet in Putin's head before he uses tactical nuclear weapons. The longer this goes on, the more likely the chance he will use them because he's going to get desperate.

The other aspect is that NATO needs to threaten severe retaliation if tactical nuclear weapons are used.
If they don't beat this drum, it's going to happen. Putin will see no-response as a sign of weakness.

deddog said:

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txags92 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Meanwhile on Russian state TV: lawmaker Aleksey Zhuravlyov is arguing that Russia might use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine and get away with it. pic.twitter.com/jBb7EWy7GQ

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) May 5, 2022

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There are sympathizers on here saying the same thing.

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I think they can get away with it. I just don't see any Western leader who will be willing to do risk their own soldiers lives over Ukraine.

I think there are three things holding Putin back:
- The false reports of success that he is most likely getting from his generals
- The complete and utter isolation that will occur - it will go beyond NKorea levels
- The huge influx of conventional weapons and "volunteers" into Ukraine

Hopefully one of his generals puts a bullet in Putin's head before he uses tactical nuclear weapons. The longer this goes on, the more likely the chance he will use them because he's going to get desperate.

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If he goes nuclear and NATO doesn't respond with full force then it will be the biggest mistake NATO ever makes. You're telling Russia at that point that they're allowed to do anything they want with no repercussions.

Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.” 👀 https://t.co/dw84glJ6e0 pic.twitter.com/oaKsiP3csY

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) May 5, 2022

Aggies75455 said:

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If he goes nuclear and NATO doesn't respond with full force then it will be the biggest mistake NATO ever makes. You're telling Russia at that point that they're allowed to do anything they want with no repercussions.

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Agreed.
And they need to be VERY vocal about this now, before it gets out of hand.

Nobody has to put boots on the ground in order to respond. Massive conventional standoff precision strikes to Russian assets in Ukraine as a response. Allowing for nuclear deployment even at theater level for the sole purpose of turning the tide of a purely offensive incursion into another country would have absurdly negative ramifications toward normalizing that for Russia in Ukraine as well as for other rogue nations. That's a phenomenal red line.

Reply to this says it's Izyum and not Kharkiv.

pic.twitter.com/tjgcEvJh6p

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) May 5, 2022

Teamwork. Probably Ukrainian with US citizenship and donated British uniform . They only speak Ukrainian/Russian so not a real foreign fighter pic.twitter.com/hnoCdDTPKM

— Lost Weapons (@LostWeapons) May 5, 2022