***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

8,103,691 Views | 48793 Replies | Last: 4 hrs ago by PJYoung
GarryowenAg
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This is the newest tank Russia owns. Supposed to compete with the Abrams SEP V3. Reports say Russia only has a few hundred of these in active use.


AgBQ-00
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Hopefully we get to see a few of those enter the turret toss competition soon.
You do not have a soul. You are a soul that has a body.

We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
nortex97
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Dawg6 said:

ShotOver said:

Ok, I feel compelled to write this. This thread is what I read in the evening and again in the morning. As a former battery commander in Germany from 1985-1989, I have a keen interest in how this is going to turn out. I hope the Russians get everything that's coming to them. Things have not changed in 37 years.
As a former tank company commander in Germany during the same time period, I agree.
Also, tanks remain viable and frankly essential in war. The Russians are demonstrably exactly how not to use tanks. Combined arms, with the armor, infantry, artillery, aviation, air defense, and other multiplying assets worked together are a fearsome force.
I am very surprised at the incredible lack of coordination that the Russian forces are demonstrated. Just completely astonished.
Thx. Not to derail, but I read a couple weeks ago about a tank being operated by 3 lieutenants, on the Russian side, and it was captured. It indicates/supports that they just don't have well trained crews to deploy/employ their assets well, let alone coordinate with other forces (infantry/FA).

The Ukrainians are sporadically using 'new' tech like armed drones/infrared/modern anti-armor weapons well, but ultimately it is all a ludicrous waste of lives for the Russians, imho. I really can't see this operation being sustainable for more than a few more weeks, particularly if their ammo/fuel supply lines are being significantly further impaired now.
Waffledynamics
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It looks like a lot has happened in the past 24 hours.

21 hours ago (as I post this):

Quote:

Russian army attempting to advance at Pashkove, Dovhenke, Velyka Komyshuvakha villages in Kharkiv region. Near Novomykhailivka and Maryinka in Donetsk region

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/24-april-russian-army-attempting-to-advance-at-pashkove-dovhenke


18 hours ago (as I post this):

Quote:

Ukrainian intelligence reporting offensive build-up of Russian troops in Kherson region on Kryvyi Rih direction - Head of Kryvyi Rih military administration Vilkul

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/24-april-ukrainian-intelligence-reporting-offensive-buildup


9 hours ago (as I post this):

Quote:

Ukrainian Armed Forces restored control over 5 settlements of the Mykolaiv region - operational command "South"

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-april-ukrainian-armed-forces-restored-control-over-5-settlements

Interesting to see the Ukrainians Northeast of Kherson. I hope they get rid of those mines along the highway into Kherson if they head that way.


8 hours ago (as I post this):

Quote:

Russian army deployed big amount of equipment and military at Velyka Novosilka - Novodarivka - Malynivka frontline and attempting to advance towards Zaporizhzhia

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-april-russian-army-deployed-big-amount-of-equipment-and

We could be seeing some big things happening very soon, folks.

LiveUaMap as I posted this:

MeatDr
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MeatDr
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Well this clearly suggests it wasn't missiles.... maybe missile at one site and explosives at the other? Or nobody knows what the heck happened still.
ABATTBQ11
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Dawg6 said:

ShotOver said:

Ok, I feel compelled to write this. This thread is what I read in the evening and again in the morning. As a former battery commander in Germany from 1985-1989, I have a keen interest in how this is going to turn out. I hope the Russians get everything that's coming to them. Things have not changed in 37 years.
As a former tank company commander in Germany during the same time period, I agree.
Also, tanks remain viable and frankly essential in war. The Russians are demonstrably exactly how not to use tanks. Combined arms, with the armor, infantry, artillery, aviation, air defense, and other multiplying assets worked together are a fearsome force.
I am very surprised at the incredible lack of coordination that the Russian forces are demonstrated. Just completely astonished.


I think this is one of those things people feel like they should have seen coming. Russia has a culture of corruption and papering over problems. They're generally more concerned with appearance than actual effectiveness in order to appease leadership. It should come as no surprise that their military looks great on paper but is in reality poorly trained and coordinated.
Waffledynamics
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ABATTBQ11
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Wow... Either a really well done sabotage job or an inside false flag. Gotta question how you get that kind of access with that many explosives without being noticed. Hell, they've got a camera on that exact spot.
MeatDr
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False flag looking likely.



Waffledynamics
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With oil/fuel being such an important resource, I am very hesitant to say these major fires are false flags. A false flag target would be something far less essential to the war effort, like an apartment building or a commercial building, right? Burning fuel directly hurts their war effort.
MeatDr
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It doesn't make sense to me either... but they haven't made sense with a lot of stuff. They do have less exports right now, so maybe they feel they have the extra fuel to burn (literally). It's all very odd.
Drillbit4
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Also strange that the video would be released so quickly to public unless meant to be false flag.
FamousAgg
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ABATTBQ11 said:

Wow... Either a really well done sabotage job or an inside false flag. Gotta question how you get that kind of access with that many explosives without being noticed. Hell, they've got a camera on that exact spot.


Could it be a legitimate Ukrainian military strike? Im assuming they would have claimed credit if they had made the strike.
BQ_90
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BattleGrackle said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

Wow... Either a really well done sabotage job or an inside false flag. Gotta question how you get that kind of access with that many explosives without being noticed. Hell, they've got a camera on that exact spot.


Could it be a legitimate Ukrainian military strike? Im assuming they would have claimed credit if they had made the strike.
they might not wanna broadcast the technology they have to pull that off assuming they are the ones that did it.

If this is a false flag, what good does it do. At this point if you aren't supporting Russia this doesn't change it if you assume Uke did it. I mean I guess this is to convince the home folk of what they're doing. If that's the case then Russia is having some internal issues over Uke after all.
AgLA06
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Who knows.

The max range of a TB2 is 300km. It would need time to loiter to do what the Russians are claiming. Which would make this a one way mission. I don't see this target being worth losing one of those right now.

Then again, it's just as likely it was Ukraine and framed it to look like a false flag (which would be awesome if they pulled that off).

I don't think it really matters one way or the other. What does Russia actually gain (I don't mean what they think they gain) from a false flag. It's a legitimate military target that wouldn't change anything. I imagine most of the world is having the same "that's a shame" reaction we are.
74OA
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GarryowenAg said:

Haven't seen this posted yet.

Moscow sent that note ten days ago. We have ignored it.
AgLA06
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74OA said:

GarryowenAg said:

Haven't seen this posted yet.

Moscow sent that note ten days ago. We have ignored it.
I don't have the personality to be a diplomate. I would have sent it back as a paper airplane with a middle finger drawn on it. And probably with the latest shipping roster of weapons.
PJYoung
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Ulrich
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Waffledynamics said:

With oil/fuel being such an important resource, I am very hesitant to say these major fires are false flags. A false flag target would be something far less essential to the war effort, like an apartment building or a commercial building, right? Burning fuel directly hurts their war effort.

I don't really think it's a false flag, but guess what Russia has a glut of right now, and guess what commodity they want to be as scarce (and therefore valuable) as possible to put additional pressure on their new enemies in Europe? Yep.

I don't think they are hurting for a lack of fuel in Russia proper, but they are hurting for being unable to deliver it to the invasion force. I'd say look at how important this facility is to getting diesel and jet to the front line to figure out who did it. The more critical the infrastructure destroyed is for THAT purpose, the more likely it was Ukraine rather than Russia.
74OA
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AgLA06 said:

74OA said:

GarryowenAg said:

Haven't seen this posted yet.

Moscow sent that note ten days ago. We have ignored it.
I don't have the personality to be a diplomate. I would have sent it back as a paper airplane with a middle finger drawn on it. And probably with the latest shipping roster of weapons.
That's essentially what we did when subsequently announcing another $800M aid package.
MeatDr
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He claims he has UA sources confirming it was TB2...

Rest of thread:
According to this account, both sites (One of which is related to a local Russian Military base, another is civilian but larger) were struck successfully by munitions fired by the TB-2. This is, of course, quite a notable blow ~100km deep into Russia. Whilst all of this remains unconfirmed from any side (TB-2 usage has been under quite an embargo recently) it is bolstered by the fact that Ru sources show a TB-2 downed over #Kursk Oblast this AM.
Our UA sources claim it was taken down after the strike, on the way back to base.
If accurate, then this story again shows the ability of Ukrainian forces to conduct strikes in Russian territory using long-range assets. However, they can come at a cost.
Perhaps the loss of a TB-2, easily replacable, is worth the destruction of critical Russian infrastructure.
Blackbeard94
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Waffledynamics said:

With oil/fuel being such an important resource, I am very hesitant to say these major fires are false flags. A false flag target would be something far less essential to the war effort, like an apartment building or a commercial building, right? Burning fuel directly hurts their war effort.


This analysis is sadly correct. Russians would not destroy anything of value in a false flag. Tons of refined petroleum products and the infrastructure to move and store those products are highly valuable.

Apartment buildings would be the preferred target for a false flag. Human life is meaningless to them, including their own citizens.
PJYoung
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Quote:

It also takes a vision, planning, exercises, and supervised execution using a transformational (versus transactional) leadership approach.All this takes time, determination, & repetitious training.

But all of this develops develops teamwork, trust, loyalty, & camaraderie.

Good militaries understand all this, and good military leaders ensure it happens. Nations rely on leaders to ensure this exists for when the nation is threatened.

Less-than-good militaries put conscripts under arms, field equipment with inherent faults & allow corruption.

Any good military (or former military) leader can see all these things when assessing militaries. It's not that hard if one has experience "in the arena."

But the 2d reason I've been bold is because I had the chance to see how seemingly small things contribute to big failure.

Two vignettes:

Right after giving up command of Tank Brigade as a young colonel, I was assigned as the Commander of the Operations Group (COG,
@OPSGRP_NTC) at our Army's National Training Center (NTC,@NTC_UPDATE)

At the NTC, we trained large units to prepare for combat.

As a Brigade Commander, I thought I was pretty good. But in training other Brigades, I realized just how much I didn't know.

When units train at the NTC (and our other training sites), they fight mock battles against a tough opposing force for a couple of weeks.

Every 24-48 hours, there's a "pause" in the operations with an "after action review" (AAR) showing the good & bad things the unit's doing.

Good units polish their good things, fix their bad things, and the battle resumes.

After 3 weeks units & their leaders are darned good.

Not-so-good units don't accept critiques, don't fix broken processes, repeatedly allow small issues to turn into big problems, and don't reflect on their own leadership failures.

After a few months on the Ops Group team, anyone can quickly tell good from bad units.

Beyond differentiating from good & bad units, or how tactics should be applied in successful maneuvers, the NTC Ops Group teams can almost always predict the results of any of the "mock battles" that are part of the scenario, before they even take place.

A few years after serving at the NTC, and after a combat tour, I was assigned as a new Brigadier General to command the Army's European training center at Grafenwoehr Germany.

They have a center similar to NTC, called the Joint Multinational Training Center
@HohenfelsJMRC

There, US & their allies train young soldiers, develop sergeants as leaders, exercise large formations in combined arms operations at the small unit level.

UA trained there & soon had their own training center at Yavoriv (@JMTG_Ukraine)

UA had great soldiers & good units.

The few times I observed the RU army in training & exercises, or talked to their leaders, they didn't seem to be "good units."

Comparing the 2 armies-even w/ seemingly different quantity of equipment-the expectations seemed obvious.

The "next phase" of this illegal invasion will soon play out in E & S Ukraine.

The already exhibited RU organizational issues-lack of manpower in regenerated units, poor equipment, dysfunctional logistics, horrible leadership & low soldier morale-will only grow.

The UA will face challenges, too. Large scale conventional combined arms operations are even more difficult than less grand tactical fights we've seen so far.

Managing logistics across long spaces & incorporation of new, western-provided equipment will also prove challenging.

But I'll again be bold in saying Ukraine will persevere.

I hope that isn't seen as hubris, it's just an assessment based on my bias about who will best face the challenges of combined arms warfare & which is the learning Army.

@SecDef
implied the same thing yesterday.
Jarrin' Jay
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GarryowenAg said:

Haven't seen this posted yet.


This is comical. The response should be "No, but you are welcome to destroy them as they are entering the country. Your military is so incapable of completing their mission, so disorganized, and so dysfunctional that Ukraine continues to receive new equipment and arms 2 months after Russia invaded. If you cannot stop new military equipment from crossing the border into Ukraine, maybe you should not have invaded, or taken steps to secure the border and airports to begin with".

Can you imagine 50 days into either Gulf War if Russia tried to provide new arms and equipment to Iraq? All that material and equipment would have been blown to s*** the second it crossed the border by land or air or docked in port.

The Russian military is completely incompetent.
ABATTBQ11
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Ulrich said:

Waffledynamics said:

With oil/fuel being such an important resource, I am very hesitant to say these major fires are false flags. A false flag target would be something far less essential to the war effort, like an apartment building or a commercial building, right? Burning fuel directly hurts their war effort.

I don't really think it's a false flag, but guess what Russia has a glut of right now, and guess what commodity they want to be as scarce (and therefore valuable) as possible to put additional pressure on their new enemies in Europe? Yep.

I don't think they are hurting for a lack of fuel in Russia proper, but they are hurting for being unable to deliver it to the invasion force. I'd say look at how important this facility is to getting diesel and jet to the front line to figure out who did it. The more critical the infrastructure destroyed is for THAT purpose, the more likely it was Ukraine rather than Russia.


This. If this was infrastructure for supplying Europe, then there's your reasoning.
Ulrich
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Blackbeard94 said:

Waffledynamics said:

With oil/fuel being such an important resource, I am very hesitant to say these major fires are false flags. A false flag target would be something far less essential to the war effort, like an apartment building or a commercial building, right? Burning fuel directly hurts their war effort.


This analysis is sadly correct. Russians would not destroy anything of value in a false flag. Tons of refined petroleum products and the infrastructure to move and store those products are highly valuable.

Apartment buildings would be the preferred target for a false flag. Human life is meaningless to them, including their own citizens.

A fuel depot is also a military resource, so it's not even that effective as a false flag because military resources are supposed to get blown up in wars. For the best propaganda results they need dead Russian babies and young mothers, just like the pictures circulated from Ukraine.

It's a nasty business.
P.U.T.U
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At this point I don't see Russia blowing up fuel of any kind, they are having logistical issues and its also the majority of their GDP comes from it. I could see Ukraine blowing it up for obvious reasons. I would actually be more concered after attach (if it was from a TB2) since that means you have an ememy aircraft in your airspace for hours without it being shot down. Not exactly like the Doolittle raid but still disconcerning to the Russians.
Ulysses90
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AgLA06 said:

Who knows.

The max range of a TB2 is 300km. It would need time to loiter to do what the Russians are claiming. Which would make this a one way mission. I don't see this target being worth losing one of those right now.

Then again, it's just as likely it was Ukraine and framed it to look like a false flag (which would be awesome if they pulled that off).

I don't think it really matters one way or the other. What does Russia actually gain (I don't mean what they think they gain) from a false flag. It's a legitimate military target that wouldn't change anything. I imagine most of the world is having the same "that's a shame" reaction we are.

Ask yourself why the Bayraktar that has a cruising speed of ~200kph and a loiter time of ~24 hours only has a range of 300km. The answer is probably that the Turks didn't build it with the ability to exercise remote control via a satellite communication network. The range of the Bayraktar is C2 limited, not fuel limited.

https://defence-blog.com/ukraine-conducts-airstrike-with-bayraktar-tb2-armed-drone-for-first-time-ever/

A Bayraktar attack on Bryansk could have been supported through the use of a temporary repeater node set up by SOF or spies inside Russia. Alternatively, somebody could have loaned the UA the use of some satellites and retrofitted a SATCOM radio onto a Bayraktar. I prefer to think it was the latter because that would extend the reach of UA strikes across a wide area where Russian air defense may not be as good as advertised.

Air defenses notwithstanding, a Bayraktar has enough fuel to make a round trip from Kyiv to Moscow. It just lacks the radio link to control it (as far as we know).
JJxvi
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This would be a really weird false flag. #1 It's an indictment of Russia's ability to protect its own infrastructure #2 Its generally a valid military and economic target.

False flag claims would seem more likely to be Ukrainian psyops against Russian aligned folks to make them doubt Russia. The only way I could see this being any kind of false flag would be if it was designed to put pressure on like Germany to try and pit them against Ukraine (Ukraine is attacking Germany's oil/gas supply!) but that seems pretty doubtful too.
74OA
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Ulysses90 said:

AgLA06 said:

Who knows.

The max range of a TB2 is 300km. It would need time to loiter to do what the Russians are claiming. Which would make this a one way mission. I don't see this target being worth losing one of those right now.

Then again, it's just as likely it was Ukraine and framed it to look like a false flag (which would be awesome if they pulled that off).

I don't think it really matters one way or the other. What does Russia actually gain (I don't mean what they think they gain) from a false flag. It's a legitimate military target that wouldn't change anything. I imagine most of the world is having the same "that's a shame" reaction we are.

Ask yourself why the Bayraktar that has a cruising speed of ~200kph and a loiter time of ~24 hours only has a range of 300km. The answer is probably that the Turks didn't build it with the ability to exercise remote control via a satellite communication network. The range of the Bayraktar is C2 limited, not fuel limited.

https://defence-blog.com/ukraine-conducts-airstrike-with-bayraktar-tb2-armed-drone-for-first-time-ever/

A Bayraktar attack on Bryansk could have been supported through the use of a temporary repeater node set up by SOF or spies inside Russia. Alternatively, somebody could have loaned the UA the use of some satellites and retrofitted a SATCOM radio onto a Bayraktar. I prefer to think it was the latter because that would extend the reach of UA strikes across a wide area where Russian air defense may not be as good as advertised.

Air defenses notwithstanding, a Bayraktar has enough fuel to make a round trip from Kyiv to Moscow. It just lacks the radio link to control it (as far as we know).

Perhaps, but to operate beyond C2 range it could be programmed to fly a fixed route and release bombs over a preset GPS coordinate (like a fuel farm) and then fly a reverse route to return within C2 range.
mickeyrig06sq3
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Jarrin' Jay said:

GarryowenAg said:

Haven't seen this posted yet.


This is comical. The response should be "No, but you are welcome to destroy them as they are entering the country. Your military is so incapable of completing their mission, so disorganized, and so dysfunctional that Ukraine continues to receive new equipment and arms 2 months after Russia invaded. If you cannot stop new military equipment from crossing the border into Ukraine, maybe you should not have invaded, or taken steps to secure the border and airports to begin with".

Can you imagine 50 days into either Gulf War if Russia tried to provide new arms and equipment to Iraq? All that material and equipment would have been blown to s*** the second it crossed the border by land or air or docked in port.

The Russian military is completely incompetent.
Nah. Either reply with "Nuts!", or a copy and paste of the Snake Island response.
Robk
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FriscoKid
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I don't see how Russia plans on taking anything in Ukraine. They should quit now before they lose land that they "controlled" before the war started.
Hillary paid for warrant to spy on Trump.
74OA
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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

Jarrin' Jay said:

GarryowenAg said:

Haven't seen this posted yet.


This is comical. The response should be "No, but you are welcome to destroy them as they are entering the country. Your military is so incapable of completing their mission, so disorganized, and so dysfunctional that Ukraine continues to receive new equipment and arms 2 months after Russia invaded. If you cannot stop new military equipment from crossing the border into Ukraine, maybe you should not have invaded, or taken steps to secure the border and airports to begin with".

Can you imagine 50 days into either Gulf War if Russia tried to provide new arms and equipment to Iraq? All that material and equipment would have been blown to s*** the second it crossed the border by land or air or docked in port.

The Russian military is completely incompetent.
Nah. Either reply with "Nuts!", or a copy and paste of the Snake Island response.
Again, that note is ten days old, and we "responded" by subsequently upping aid to Ukraine by another $800M.
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