AGS-R-TUFF said:
MeatDr said:
Hoping for a way to buy these Mariupol fighters more time. The map doesn't look conducive to Uke ground troops getting in thru from East (Khereson) side expeditiously and not sure if they can afford to redirect some support from Donbas down to Mariupol.
My novice opinion is thinking if air strikes (drones, switchblades etc.) could create enough disruption to delay or fracture enemy advances, allowing for more effective guerilla counter strikes from Azof battalion.
Thoughts…
1) Mariupol is completely cut off by land and sea. There is no hope of relief by Uke ground forces for the foreseeable future unless the Russian army completely collapses.
2) Khereson is completely different theatre in the war and any attempt to relieve Mariupol from that direction would face constant attacks out of Crimea.
3) The main current thrust is anticipated to be coming into the Donbas and the 12 or so BTG in and around Mariupol at least 8 will be able to be turned and pushed towards other strategic locations in the Donbas or towards the Dnieper and Uke forces will be better spent taking on those forces than trying to relieve 1000-2000 troops in Mariupol.
4) Air strikes are not going to relieve the forces there or create a corridor sufficient to evacuate forces that probably won't abandon their home anyway. Switchblades (the 300 series anyhow) don't have the range to reach the city from Uke held territory and would require end point recon and communications to be effective.
5) Air strikes would also have to go through a significant anti-air umbrella outside the city and would be better used around Khereson or in the Donbas.
6) The Azov and Marines in the steel factory are using tunnel systems of a massive factory complex (I think it's like 35-40 square km in size, the thing is huge) that have been prepared for years. Think fighting on 1.5 Iwo Jimas with a giant factory on top of it. That's what the Azov steel factory is. They've also built shelters, food and water storage, ammunition bunkers and all kinds of stuff in that system.
7) The defenders will be a giant pain in the ass to dig out of that area and will likely take months if not longer to completely clean out and it will cost the Russians at least 3-4 times the casualties to get them all out. I would anticipate at least 4-6 BTG having to finish that fight at a minimum.
8) It's estimated that the Russians now only have 70 functioning BTG in the war with 12 coming into the Eastern part of the Ukraine and 22 being refitted and equipped in Belarus. Those will likely need to be moved to the East to get into the fight. I don't think they'd be able to advance towards Kyiv with only 25k troops now that the Uke territorials in the north are equipped and going through intensive training and preparations.
Hope all this makes sense!
