***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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flakrat
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:42a, 4/15/22
AG
Rossticus said:
442 currently unaccounted for based on latest reports. 54 rescued by Turkish ship. 14 made it off and flown to Sevastopol.
Weren't there Russian ships supporting the Moskva that could have rescued the sailors? Wow!
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Rossticus
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In reply to flakrat • 12:57a, 4/15/22
flakrat said:
Rossticus said:
442 currently unaccounted for based on latest reports. 54 rescued by Turkish ship. 14 made it off and flown to Sevastopol.
Weren't there Russian ships supporting the Moskva that could have rescued the sailors? Wow!


I'm not saying that they couldn't have but that Russia still has yet to publicly account for any of the rest is telling, IMO.
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Jetpilot86
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In reply to CondensedFogAggie • 1:05a, 4/15/22
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CondensedFoggyAggie said:

Ad hoc production line of plates and body armor. Slava Ukraini
Just when you thought the Uke Farmers were the top of the food chain....

Nope it's Uke Grandma Vests....

On a more serious note, in the Russian post above where they say that the Ukes should be wiped off the map, after watching this video you realize it's the only way the Russians can win, by killing everyone, period! The closest parallel I can think of is WW2's Rosie the Riveter as in everyone in Ukraine not just doing their part, but finding a part to do. How many more stories like this are running around Ukraine that we haven't even heard yet? It will take generations for that kind of patriotism to go away.

If Zelensky has any visions of dictatorship after this is over, presuming they win, he can forget that. (I have no idea what his aspirations are), but good luck telling the average Uke soldier/farmer/grandma what freedoms they can or can't have if they don't agree with it. With any luck, you are looking at the the first European version of a Democracy forming before your eyes....

I spend my share of time on European layovers, but once this is resolved, probably gonna have to do some vacation time there just to meet some of these type of heros.
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Jetpilot86
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In reply to flakrat • 1:06a, 4/15/22
AG
flakrat said:
Rossticus said:
442 currently unaccounted for based on latest reports. 54 rescued by Turkish ship. 14 made it off and flown to Sevastopol.
Weren't there Russian ships supporting the Moskva that could have rescued the sailors? Wow!
With how the Russian's have conducted themselves this "war", is this really surprising? Not to me....
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Rossticus
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In reply to Jetpilot86 • 1:25a, 4/15/22
Zelensky has hinted at not even running for a second term whether the war is over or not. We'll see where this goes in the next few months, assuming he stays alive, but you have to imagine he's worn the hell out.
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Jetpilot86
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:29a, 4/15/22
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Rossticus said:
Zelensky has hinted at not even running for a second term whether the war is over or not. We'll see where this goes in the next few months, assuming he stays alive, but you have to imagine he's worn the hell out.
I really wasn't as much talking about him, but any other permanent unelected head of state wannabe's there with ambitions like that. I'm putting Ukraine becoming a US style democracy on my list of "impossible things, that look more possible than they did a month ago."

I just can't imagine a Uke house without a gun after this.....
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Red Pear Realty
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5:24a, 4/15/22
Sponsor
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Russia losing more expensive ($50m) toys that they don't have many of to start with.

Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
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FarmerFran
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5:26a, 4/15/22
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When are the howitzers, tanks, and next shipment of stingers and javelins supposed to arrive in Ukraine?
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PJYoung
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5:48a, 4/15/22
AG
This thread is delicious.



Quote:
It should be noted that in Russian the term "shirpotreb" was inherited from the harsh reality of the USSR. "Shirpotreb" is an abbreviated Russian version of the phrase "cheap consumer goods of low quality". The word has a negative connotation./3

The author of the article naturally finds the "soviet roots" of the AShM and apparently therefore illustrates the article with a photo of theAShM X-35. Ukraine really used the previous experience and approached it creatively in the absence of cooperation with after 2014./4

a few quotes: It should be noted that at present the air defense of modern ships has become extremely dense, multi-layered and effective./5

another quote: …And such missiles as the Ukrainian "Neptune" the above-mentioned air defense will easily shoot down even on the distant approaches to the ship's warrant without any special efforts./6

quote: If combat shooting (we are talking about "Neptune") is supposed to hit a ship or a task-group of warships equipped with modern air defense systems, then the effectiveness of such launches will obviously be close to zero./7

The author also has a sound idea: As a ground-based launcher, "Neptune" can be used in anti-amphibious operations to make it difficult for the enemy to land on the Ukrainian coast. And this is a fact the attacking side will have to take into account./8

I have cited as an example just one article in a Russian magazine, but I assure you that it reflects at large the long-existent trend of ignoring the possible missile threat from Ukraine./9

Summing up I'd describe the long-existedopinion onAShM as following:
- They will make a project but won't be able to construct
- They will construct but it won't fly
- It will fly but won't reach target
- It will reach the target but the warhead won't become active
Oops 10/10
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WesMaroon&White
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5:48a, 4/15/22
AG
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Ulysses90
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In reply to PJYoung • 6:13a, 4/15/22
AG
PJYoung said:
This thread is delicious.

The only thing more delicious than the fresh raw hubris of an enemy is the taste of dry-aged three year old hubris.
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WesMaroon&White
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6:21a, 4/15/22
AG
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PJYoung
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6:41a, 4/15/22
AG




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PJYoung
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6:42a, 4/15/22
AG
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Ulysses90
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In reply to WesMaroon&White • 6:45a, 4/15/22
AG
That demonstration is not for the consumption of the Poles but for the population of Russia. The Putin regime is trying to whip up patriotic fervor against an imagined foreign aggressor to divert and deflect anger that is correctly directed at the regime.
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nortex97
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In reply to BusterAg • 6:52a, 4/15/22
AG
BusterAg said:
CondensedFoggyAggie said:

Ukraine-Russia Set To Fight Largest Tank Battle in Europe Since World War 2 - https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-set-fight-largest-tank-battle-since-world-war-2-poland-1697196


Quote:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russia is amassing tens of thousands of troops in the east of Ukraine for a new offensive that likely aims, as the Kremlin has announced, at the "complete liberation" of Donbas.

It is expected that Russia will be able to deploy its full heavy military equipment in the eastern region thanks to the shorter supply line from Russia, taking advantage of its military superiority in this form of traditional warfare.

"The battle for Donbas will remind you of the Second World War, with its large operations and maneuvers, the involvement of thousands of tanks, armored vehicles, planes and artillery," said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba last week after a meeting with NATO ministers.

"And this will not be a local operation, based on what we see in Russia's preparations. Either you help us now and I'm speaking days, not weeks or your help will come too late and many people will die."

The Czech Republic is so far the only country that has sent tanks to Ukraine, dispatching five T-72 tanks and five BVP-1 or BMP-1 tracked infantry fighting vehicles to the country last week, as reported by Reuters.

During the past week, both the UK and Germany have refused Ukraine's requests to send tanks, with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson saying it "wouldn't be appropriate."

Ukrainian Defense Ministry Spokesman Oleksandr Motuzyanyk said Ukrainian authorities "forecast that active combat will begin in these areas [the Donbas] in the nearest time."
Come on, why the hell did you build those tanks if not for situations like this. It's not even your own soldiers that are going to die.
Is it a potential problem for you to get your state-of-the-art tanks captured by Russia, and give away a bunch of unannounced new tech? That is the only thing I can think of here.
To actually function well in combat, a tank needs to be both (a) employed correctly with infantry/air cover, and (b) very well trained as to how to use the weapon system. In an urban environment it is largely just an at risk asset. Also, note the stories about Russian tanks being found with just a few lieutenants manning them (killed). That's part of why Russia's big armor advantage has been…just a liability; they are apparently out of disciplined and trained crews.

There's little reason to just ship Abrams/Commanders etc. to Ukrainian forces as they would be basically useless in the conflict, PR aside. They don't have time to send crews to train in Poland etc., or to train the commanders how to use them.
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MeatDr
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7:04a, 4/15/22
AG
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BusterAg
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In reply to MeatDr • 7:11a, 4/15/22
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MeatDr said:
He FAAFO.
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MeatDr
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7:17a, 4/15/22
AG
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MeatDr
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7:21a, 4/15/22
AG
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G Martin 87
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In reply to flakrat • 7:59a, 4/15/22
AG
flakrat said:
Rossticus said:
442 currently unaccounted for based on latest reports. 54 rescued by Turkish ship. 14 made it off and flown to Sevastopol.
Weren't there Russian ships supporting the Moskva that could have rescued the sailors? Wow!
Not without orders.
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AgLA06
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In reply to MeatDr • 8:03a, 4/15/22
AG
MeatDr said:


Total assumption:

In order for the ship that size to have capsized so quickly, the Neptune couldn't have hit the bridge. However, it must have been one hell of an explosion on impact if the captain was killed on the bridge.

Maybe arming an old ship like that to the teeth isn't such a good idea for survivability.
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Burrus86
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8:09a, 4/15/22
AG
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Not a Bot
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8:12a, 4/15/22
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Russia claims to have attacked an anti-ship missile factory near Kyiv last night.

This of course has nothing to do with the Moskva, which was sunk after a tragic accident on board.
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wangus12
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In reply to AgLA06 • 8:13a, 4/15/22
AG
AgLA06 said:
MeatDr said:


Total assumption:

In order for the ship that size to have capsized so quickly, the Neptune couldn't have hit the bridge. However, it must have been one hell of an explosion on impact if the captain was killed on the bridge.

Maybe arming an old ship like that to the teeth isn't such a good idea for survivability.
Yeah I bet it was a ridiculous explosion if the hit all that ammunition at the right spot. I'm picturing something akin to the Arizona.

Probably blew a massive hole in the side of the ship which made her roll so quickly.
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to AgLA06 • 8:19a, 4/15/22
AG
It was designed to attack carrier groups with a barrage of heavy anti ship missiles with huge warheads that could achieve a 1 hit knockout.

They loaded the topside with launchers. Modern ships have very little armor, and rely on internal isolation and bulkheads to maintain damage control, and defenses to prevent hits in the first place. It's very all of nothing.

If a superstructure hit detonated those missiles in their launchers or a magazine elsewhere on the ship, it would have been catastrophic damage.

If they were lax, did not have their doors closed and compartments kept sealed between shifts, and were being lax in their defensive posture due to the weather, they might have been taken completely by surprise, took devastating damage, and sank rapidly due to inability to isolate flooding.
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PJYoung
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In reply to MeatDr • 8:21a, 4/15/22
AG


Quote:
This looks sooo garage tech. How do you defend against this?

...
Because it is. Those quad bike riding drone nerds are making this up as they go. They were a terror to the Russians NW of Kyiv.

...
This feels a bit WW1 and dropping bombs from the basket of a balloon.

...
Right. These small drones add constant terror
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aggiehawg
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In reply to MouthBQ98 • 8:25a, 4/15/22
AG
Quote:
If a superstructure hit detonated those missiles in their launchers or a magazine elsewhere on the ship, it would have been catastrophic damage.
That was my thought as well. The way that ship was designed, those launchers were an easy target. I have seen reports that the Moskva had two nukes of unknown strength on board as well. Doubt those went off as it would have been detected by satellites.
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agent-maroon
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In reply to aggiehawg • 8:34a, 4/15/22
AG
Wouldn't go nuclear from a nearby explosion, but the high explosives that a nuke uses to initiate the fission reaction would create a significant explosion even without the nuclear component. More of a dirty bomb vs thermonuclear event kind of scenario
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to aggiehawg • 8:35a, 4/15/22
AG
You typically can't detonate a nuclear warhead without triggering the precisely timed detonation sequence required to achieve critical mass. Exploding the warhead with a separate munition or explosion usually damaged the mechanism required to achieve this so even if that is exploded, it occurs improperly. A freak occurrence might cause a warhead with poor fail safe design to detonate and cause a nuclear detonation, but it is extremely unlikely, fortunately.

You can end up with a radioactive dirty mess from the warhead, or a still potentially detonatable loose warhead, however. Those warheads need to be recovered before some trawler accidentally scoops one up off the seabed and someone who shouldn't get it ends up with it.
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Decay
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In reply to aggiehawg • 8:38a, 4/15/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
Quote:
If a superstructure hit detonated those missiles in their launchers or a magazine elsewhere on the ship, it would have been catastrophic damage.
That was my thought as well. The way that ship was designed, those launchers were an easy target. I have seen reports that the Moskva had two nukes of unknown strength on board as well. Doubt those went off as it would have been detected by satellites.

Nukes don't really "go off" by accident so that's not a concern. There might be contamination from nuclear material but the ocean tends to disperse that pretty well.
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74OA
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8:39a, 4/15/22
AG
I still say the Kherson front has the potential to unhinge the entire Russian operation.

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DapperDanMan
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In reply to Jetpilot86 • 8:41a, 4/15/22
AG
Jetpilot86 said:
CondensedFoggyAggie said:

Ad hoc production line of plates and body armor. Slava Ukraini
Just when you thought the Uke Farmers were the top of the food chain....

Nope it's Uke Grandma Vests....

On a more serious note, in the Russian post above where they say that the Ukes should be wiped off the map, after watching this video you realize it's the only way the Russians can win, by killing everyone, period! The closest parallel I can think of is WW2's Rosie the Riveter as in everyone in Ukraine not just doing their part, but finding a part to do. How many more stories like this are running around Ukraine that we haven't even heard yet? It will take generations for that kind of patriotism to go away.

If Zelensky has any visions of dictatorship after this is over, presuming they win, he can forget that. (I have no idea what his aspirations are), but good luck telling the average Uke soldier/farmer/grandma what freedoms they can or can't have if they don't agree with it. With any luck, you are looking at the the first European version of a Democracy forming before your eyes....

I spend my share of time on European layovers, but once this is resolved, probably gonna have to do some vacation time there just to meet some of these type of heros.
I've said it before in this thread, but I have fallen in love with these people. I am too old, fat and married to volunteer to fight, but I promise you as soon as they kick the Russians out I'm going to be sharing as many of my tourist dollars with these people as I can!
Slava Ukraini!
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MeatDr
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8:48a, 4/15/22
AG
The Ukraine government has MASTERED the art of the troll!
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AgLA06
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In reply to MeatDr • 8:58a, 4/15/22
AG
MeatDr said:
The Ukraine government has MASTERED the art of the troll!


Beautiful.
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