***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Rossticus
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5:15p, 4/14/22
Something to consider. Ukraine may have just asserted naval superiority over Russia in the Black Sea without actually having an active Navy.
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Rossticus
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5:16p, 4/14/22
Where's Baghdad Bob when you need him?

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Rossticus
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5:26p, 4/14/22
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Rossticus
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5:26p, 4/14/22
Is the feint back on?







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Pumpkinhead
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5:29p, 4/14/22
AG
So my quick take on this thus far following all of this is that the Russians suck at logistics, rely too much on conscripts, don't have a western-style NCO corps, and while they have some equipment and technology that is really good, they also have a bunch that is old and/or poorly maintained.

If they didn't have nukes and I was the NATO commander then I'd be salivating at how bad we could beat their ass if it was conventional rules only.

But...the head of the country is a dictator who doesn't give a f*** about losses or cost (the Russian way) and whom is probably willing to take it on the chin indefinitely, so this thing will most likely drag on and on until Russia gets Ukraine to at least officially give up the Crimea and some section of their East. Or, less likely, until a coup ousts Putin.
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Rossticus
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 5:31p, 4/14/22
Pumpkinhead said:
So my quick take on this thus far following all of this is that the Russians suck at logistics, rely too much on conscripts, don't have a western-style NCO corps, and while they have some equipment and technology that is really good, they also have a bunch that is old and/or poorly maintained.

But...the head of the country is a dictator who doesn't give a f*** about losses or cost (the Russian way) and whom is probably willing to take it on the chin indefinitely, so this thing will most likely drag on and on until Russia gets Ukraine to at least officially give up the Crimea and some section of their East. Or, less likely, until a coup ousts Putin.


You forgot the option where Ukraine kicks Russia's ass all the way out of their country.
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to Rossticus • 5:35p, 4/14/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Pumpkinhead said:
So my quick take on this thus far following all of this is that the Russians suck at logistics, rely too much on conscripts, don't have a western-style NCO corps, and while they have some equipment and technology that is really good, they also have a bunch that is old and/or poorly maintained.

But...the head of the country is a dictator who doesn't give a f*** about losses or cost (the Russian way) and whom is probably willing to take it on the chin indefinitely, so this thing will most likely drag on and on until Russia gets Ukraine to at least officially give up the Crimea and some section of their East. Or, less likely, until a coup ousts Putin.
You forgot the option where Ukraine kicks Russia's ass all the way out of their country.
Possibly but that seems the most unlikely scenario as long as Putin continues to not give a crap about his losses. He seems all-in and most likely the end game will be either he's ousted or he gets an acceptable (to him) face saving concession from Ukraine like some land in the East, etc.

Russia doesn't have the military power clearly to just take over all of Ukraine, but Ukraine hasn't shown enough that makes you think they can ever just push the Russians out either. Russia been meddling in separatist-controlled land in the East for years now, without Ukraine being able to ever push them out.
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Ulrich
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5:35p, 4/14/22
I think we're spending the money to actually have all the cool toys Russia claims to have.
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BusterAg
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 5:36p, 4/14/22
AG
Pumpkinhead said:
So my quick take on this thus far following all of this is that the Russians suck at logistics, rely too much on conscripts, don't have a western-style NCO corps, and while they have some equipment and technology that is really good, they also have a bunch that is old and/or poorly maintained.

If they didn't have nukes and I was the NATO commander then I'd be salivating at how bad we could beat their ass if it was conventional rules only.

But...the head of the country is a dictator who doesn't give a f*** about losses or cost (the Russian way) and whom is probably willing to take it on the chin indefinitely, so this thing will most likely drag on and on until Russia gets Ukraine to at least officially give up the Crimea and some section of their East. Or, less likely, until a coup ousts Putin.
That's pretty much been my take since the pullback to the east.

But, war is chaos, so lots could happen. Russia could get lucky and break through one of the Uke lines, and then its a rush to Kiev. Ukes could break the Russian willpower completely with new weapons, and Putin could find some bull**** off ramp. Or, Biden could grow a pair, destroy all of the NG pipelines that connect Russia to Germany, and Russia could run out of money. Finally, Putin could just say, I'm old, so F' it, and nuke any Uke city not named Kiev, and who knows where we go from there.
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Rossticus
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 5:38p, 4/14/22
Putin will not be ousted. Ousting of dictators domestically during wartime is exceedingly few and far between. He has high domestic approval as it is. Ukraine will not concede land (they've officially said that it's a nonstarter) and Russia has stated that they want more land ceded than they currently control. Only options on the table right now are decisive victory for one side or the other.
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Rossticus
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5:41p, 4/14/22
Full thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1514647566553657344.html

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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to Rossticus • 5:45p, 4/14/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Putin will not be ousted. Ousting of dictators domestically during wartime is exceedingly few and far between. He has high domestic approval as it is. Ukraine will not concede land (they've officially said that it's a nonstarter) and Russia has stated that they want more land ceded than they currently control. Only options on the table right now are decisive victory for one side or the other.
I agree Putin ever getting ousted is unlikely.

As long as the options for both sides are 'decisive victory only' then this thing will continue to go on, for perhaps years, as a long horrible war of attrition. The odds of either side getting a 'decisive victory' any time soon seems pretty low.

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Rossticus
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5:46p, 4/14/22
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javajaws
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 5:48p, 4/14/22
AG
Pumpkinhead said:
So my quick take on this thus far following all of this is that the Russians suck at logistics, rely too much on conscripts, don't have a western-style NCO corps, and while they have some equipment and technology that is really good, they also have a bunch that is old and/or poorly maintained.

If they didn't have nukes and I was the NATO commander then I'd be salivating at how bad we could beat their ass if it was conventional rules only.

But...the head of the country is a dictator who doesn't give a f*** about losses or cost (the Russian way) and whom is probably willing to take it on the chin indefinitely, so this thing will most likely drag on and on until Russia gets Ukraine to at least officially give up the Crimea and some section of their East. Or, less likely, until a coup ousts Putin.
You forgot their biggest problem: Their style of government supports corruption and doesn't encourage people to tell the truth. Putin only has himself to be mad about because all of this is going exactly to the Communist plan.
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Rossticus
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5:53p, 4/14/22
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Rossticus
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5:54p, 4/14/22
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Rossticus
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5:55p, 4/14/22
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benchmark
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In reply to Rossticus • 6:03p, 4/14/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Putin will not be ousted. Ousting of dictators domestically during wartime is exceedingly few and far between. He has high domestic approval as it is. Ukraine will not concede land (they've officially said that it's a nonstarter) and Russia has stated that they want more land ceded than they currently control. Only options on the table right now are decisive victory for one side or the other.
Bingo. Exactly how I see it. There won't be peace until one side throws in the towel.
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mickeyrig06sq3
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In reply to Rossticus • 6:05p, 4/14/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Ah, the ol' paintball field strategy for target acquisition.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to Rossticus • 6:07p, 4/14/22
AG
Rossticus said:


These plus long range artillery along with the vehicles and switchblades in addition to everything they already have will get russia pushed out of UKR.

I am also uncertain on the numbers of switchblades. Some reports says its 100+300 but some state "Systems" and a system is said to contain 10 individual suicide drones. Massive difference.

If you combine the switchblade as recon and attack, targeting for long range artillery, thats a deep threat all out of russian artillery range. Just start destroying them and pushing them back 12-25 miles at a time.
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Rossticus
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6:07p, 4/14/22




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Rossticus
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 6:12p, 4/14/22
JFABNRGR said:
Rossticus said:


These plus long range artillery along with the vehicles and switchblades in addition to everything they already have will get russia pushed out of UKR.

I am also uncertain on the numbers of switchblades. Some reports says its 100+300 but some state "Systems" and a system is said to contain 10 individual suicide drones. Massive difference.

If you combine the switchblade as recon and attack, targeting for long range artillery, thats a deep threat all out of russian artillery range. Just start destroying them and pushing them back 12-25 miles at a time.


The arms we're beginning to provide definitely seem to fit with a specific strategic plan that US/NATO have either collaborated on or blessed which would deny Russia's current attempts at environment of the Ukrainian eastern salient and incrementally but steadily push the LOC eastward.
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Rossticus
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6:23p, 4/14/22
I think Ukraine may need even more missile defense systems…





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CondensedFogAggie
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In reply to Rossticus • 6:24p, 4/14/22
Rossticus said:
How nice of them to share where Ukraine should strike next
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wangus12
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In reply to Rossticus • 6:26p, 4/14/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Full thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1514647566553657344.html



****ing parasites
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agent-maroon
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In reply to wangus12 • 6:31p, 4/14/22
AG
Quote:
****ing animals
With respect, please don't disparage animals like that. They're better than that.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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CondensedFogAggie
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6:32p, 4/14/22

I hate to post this, but it's a couple recent vids of ATGM hits on Ukrainians soldiers moving what seems to be mortars across wide open land.



Just another reminder the Ukrainians need every heavy weapon and armor they can get, especially in wide open areas. It's a brutal battlefield
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agent-maroon
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In reply to BlackGoldAg2011 • 6:40p, 4/14/22
AG
Quote:
Also, I couldn't help but wonder if the Moskva sank despite Russia's best recovery efforts, or if Russia just decided to let the Moskva sink because in the daylight it showed obvious signs of being struck by anti-ship missiles and they would rather let it sink than admit that Ukraine struck them so decisively...
Maybe, but what's the point of trying to hide the fact that the Ukes claimed a missile strike at the same time they had an "accidental" ammo explosion on board? This would mean that the Ukes had eyes on their boat or they would never had known about it to make a false claim and that the sailors on their flagship vessel were so incompetent that they accidentally sunk it or it's the mother of all coincidences. Who are they trying to convince that this "accident" scenario is any less embarrassing than an enemy missile strike?

There just isn't any way of getting out of this without looking like the complete incompetents that they appear to be...
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Rossticus
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6:41p, 4/14/22
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Rossticus
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6:42p, 4/14/22
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LMCane
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 6:45p, 4/14/22
P.U.T.U said:
That is the second weapon system they have moved west, the first one went to Vyborg which is very close to Finland
Nothing says "no need to join NATO"

more than attacking a peaceful democracy and threatening your own country with nuclear weapons.
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FriscoKid
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6:45p, 4/14/22
AG
Those PGM's aren't cheep and Russia doesn't have an unlimited number of them. This seems like a desperate attempt.
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Robk
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6:52p, 4/14/22
With all the incoming attacks there might have been an outgoing too. Belgorod might have been hit by the people's republic of Belgorod again.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/u3uffl/theres_a_fire_in_belgorod_on_industrialnaya_street/
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Who?mikejones!
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6:56p, 4/14/22
https://instagram.com/stories/combatpix/2816465127552168823

Don't know how to post an Instagram picture
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Rossticus
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6:56p, 4/14/22
Yeeesh. Dudes wearing sneakers, tripping over isht. I've sure they're a well oiled machine in combat.

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