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How do we know that Russian commanders have ordered atrocities and war crimes? In large part because their comms systems are so bad that they've had to use open and unencrypted transmissions to maintain contact with their units. The Times of London reports on the contents of such communications intercepted by Ukraine's military and released today, but as we'll see, it's not just the Ukrainians who are eavesdropping.

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This one incident in Mariupol alone is clearly a war crime involving the higher echelons of the Russian military:

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A Russian commander ordered his soldiers to open fire and "take out" Ukrainian civilians near the besieged city of Mariupol, according to what Kyiv said was an intercepted radio conversation.
"There are two people coming out of the grove in civilian [clothes]," an unnamed Russian soldier says in an obscenity-strewn recording, which was made public by Ukraine's SBU security service.
He also says that a vehicle has been spotted but it is unclear whether it is civilian or military. "Take them all f***ing out!" his superior screams in reply, adding that it was unimportant if there were non-combatants or not at the scene. "Off them all, f***!" …
It also emerged yesterday that Russia's military had boasted about killing dozens of Ukrainian "deserters" who fled the devastated southern city.

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They're also killing captured forces, according to Russia's own media, but this looks more like an excuse to murder more civilians:

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Mikhail Mizintsev, a Russian colonel general, said last month that his forces had "liquidated" 93 alleged fighters who had tried to escape. He said they had been wearing civilian clothes when they were killed, according to RT, the Kremlin-backed media outlet. It was unclear how the Russian army knew they were servicemen and why they were not offered the chance to surrender.

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Link

aggiehawg said:

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Ukraine has received about 25,000 anti-aircraft weapons systems from the United States and its allies, helping Kyiv prevent Russia from establishing air superiority that would have aided Moscow's ground invasion, the top U.S. general said on Thursday.

Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the United States and its allies had also supplied Ukraine with 60,000 anti-tank systems.

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REUTERS

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Keep in mind, outdated RPGs are technically anti-tank weapons. While that is great, I imagine many of those are older RPG models provided from other soviet era countries. While useful against personnel and fixed positions and maybe trucks, aren't really useful against MBT and BMPs.

The question is how many modern Javelin and western equivalent systems do they have? Obviously Ukraine doesn't want Russia to know.

Same with Anti-aircraft weapons. Man portables are great in line of sight applications against helicopters. Ukraine needs much more medium and long range anti-aircraft / missile systems to keep Russia from nickel and diming them from western Russia and Belarus.

⚡️Peskov in an interview for Sky news about #Russia's losses in the war with #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/2KTin79ZMw

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) April 7, 2022

ABATTBQ11 said:

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So far Ukraine has been really smart. I expect them to continue that. If the Russians choose to stay put, I don't see the Ukrainians mounting a massive assault, but rather chipping away at the Russians with artillery and drone strikes while attempting to remain out of harm's way.

I think the Russians will do the Russian thing though. They need to satisfy their egos and show the world how powerful they really are, and a full frontal assault in the east is the only way to do that. They've also backed themselves into a corner, pulling out of the north and saying their objectives were complete and now it's all about the Donbass. They can always backtrack there, too, but they risk appearing wishy-washy.

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With their supposed 60,000 anti-tank weapons, most with under 4000 YD range, will put them in harms way, but as you say they have shown to be quite effective in utilization.

Their direct action drones specifically TB2, are either completely lost, run out of munitions, or they have gone completely silent on their usage as their hasn't been a single video posted in over a week or two from what I have seen. Hopefully somebody is equipping them with more capable direct action drones.

Yeah I read that as more of pysops against russia and us; to make us feel good about ourselves as we see such atrocities continue.

Graphic descriptions so will not quote from article from WaPo about booby-trapping bodies in Bucha.

Link

If you want a shorter snippet go to HOT AIR

Taken days ago far from front lines. Please no geolocation messages even though I’ll still get them pic.twitter.com/gY6v943CyB

— James Vasquez (@jmvasquez1974) April 7, 2022

74OA said:

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UN drops Russia from human rights council. Symbolic, but nonetheless important.

Discouraging how many cowardly abstentions, though.

GONE

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One down. Another 30 or so to go.

No bueno.

A Russian air strike near Barvinkove has hit the only Ukraine-controlled railway exit from Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Lyman, stalling evacuations from Donbas, says Ukrzaliznytsia board chair Oleksandr Kamyshin. He called the rail line the "road of life" for 10s of 1000s of civilians.

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 7, 2022

JFABNRGR said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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So far Ukraine has been really smart. I expect them to continue that. If the Russians choose to stay put, I don't see the Ukrainians mounting a massive assault, but rather chipping away at the Russians with artillery and drone strikes while attempting to remain out of harm's way.

I think the Russians will do the Russian thing though. They need to satisfy their egos and show the world how powerful they really are, and a full frontal assault in the east is the only way to do that. They've also backed themselves into a corner, pulling out of the north and saying their objectives were complete and now it's all about the Donbass. They can always backtrack there, too, but they risk appearing wishy-washy.

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With their supposed 60,000 anti-tank weapons, most with under 4000 YD range, will put them in harms way, but as you say they have shown to be quite effective in utilization.

Their direct action drones specifically TB2, are either completely lost, run out of munitions, or they have gone completely silent on their usage as their hasn't been a single video posted in over a week or two from what I have seen. Hopefully somebody is equipping them with more capable direct action drones.

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Part of the reason you haven't seen any video of TB2's in a week is that they only want the massacres and war crimes in the media space. The Ukes have been unbelievably disciplined in their info ops approach. They aren't flooding the space with that. They are most likely also trying to build out additional locations and spots to operate these drones from. If you're hitting Kherson or Kyiv areas with drones you can operate in 80% non-contested space and the end is in that contested area. The space in the East is considerably more complicated and deconfliction there will be much more difficult.

Also in regards to the ATGM and anti-tank weapons, they had lots of older RPGs in 2014 and they did squat against the T-72 and up and their IFV/AFV. This time they have much more capable weapons to take on those items and are using the RPGs against infantry, trucks/towed arty and hard points in the field. But there are problems and even if you have 60,000 ATGM, not all of them will hit and kill targets. Not all of them are where you need them and I'm sure a lot of stuff is in stashes too that they will have to go get back and then move to the front. If I was a tanker in Donbas I'd make sure my life insurance was paid up. But Donbas is going to be crazy and absolutely horrific.

In order to stop a Russian offensive, they will need to engage directly. They have nowhere near enough switchblades to make an appreciable difference in the even of a full force attack.

IIRC, the eastern and southern portions of the country are "tank country"- wide open steppes with little cover. This is why Ukraine has made a fortified defensive line in the towns and villages, with interconnected earthworks and fortified basements. (Saw a very interesting video from Russian soldiers who captured one of these positions- very well prepared defensive line). In order to stop a major attack they will need to hold these lines and engage with whatever armor they have available.

RebelE Infantry said:

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In order to stop a Russian offensive, they will need to engage directly. They have nowhere near enough switchblades to make an appreciable difference in the even of a full force attack.

IIRC, the eastern and southern portions of the country are "tank country"- wide open steppes with little cover. This is why Ukraine has made a fortified defensive line in the towns and villages, with interconnected earthworks and fortified basements. (Saw a very interesting video from Russian soldiers who captured one of these positions- very well prepared defensive line). In order to stop a major attack they will need to hold these lines and engage with whatever armor they have available.

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Having some drone assets with more loiter time will definitely improve the ability of the Ukrainian artillery to engage some of the Russian formations advancing over open ground.

txags92 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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In order to stop a Russian offensive, they will need to engage directly. They have nowhere near enough switchblades to make an appreciable difference in the even of a full force attack.

IIRC, the eastern and southern portions of the country are "tank country"- wide open steppes with little cover. This is why Ukraine has made a fortified defensive line in the towns and villages, with interconnected earthworks and fortified basements. (Saw a very interesting video from Russian soldiers who captured one of these positions- very well prepared defensive line). In order to stop a major attack they will need to hold these lines and engage with whatever armor they have available.

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Having some drone assets with more loiter time will definitely improve the ability of the Ukrainian artillery to engage some of the Russian formations advancing over open ground.

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Very true.

I think a big takeaway from this war will be the strong success of drone-spotted artillery. Maybe not quite a "game changer" but definitely a big step forward in combined arms warfare.

RebelE Infantry said:

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txags92 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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In order to stop a Russian offensive, they will need to engage directly. They have nowhere near enough switchblades to make an appreciable difference in the even of a full force attack.

IIRC, the eastern and southern portions of the country are "tank country"- wide open steppes with little cover. This is why Ukraine has made a fortified defensive line in the towns and villages, with interconnected earthworks and fortified basements. (Saw a very interesting video from Russian soldiers who captured one of these positions- very well prepared defensive line). In order to stop a major attack they will need to hold these lines and engage with whatever armor they have available.

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Having some drone assets with more loiter time will definitely improve the ability of the Ukrainian artillery to engage some of the Russian formations advancing over open ground.

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Very true.

I think a big takeaway from this war will be the strong success of drone-spotted artillery. Maybe not quite a "game changer" but definitely a big step forward in combined arms warfare.

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The other aspect is the number of front line troops using consumer drones to do recon. I 1000% expect DJI and others to start having additional thermal or night vision options in the very near future. I wouldn't be surprised for mortar teams to have integrated drone spotting going forward as well.

txags92 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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In order to stop a Russian offensive, they will need to engage directly. They have nowhere near enough switchblades to make an appreciable difference in the even of a full force attack.

IIRC, the eastern and southern portions of the country are "tank country"- wide open steppes with little cover. This is why Ukraine has made a fortified defensive line in the towns and villages, with interconnected earthworks and fortified basements. (Saw a very interesting video from Russian soldiers who captured one of these positions- very well prepared defensive line). In order to stop a major attack they will need to hold these lines and engage with whatever armor they have available.

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Having some drone assets with more loiter time will definitely improve the ability of the Ukrainian artillery to engage some of the Russian formations advancing over open ground.

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In the short term, Spring rains will make the Russians even more road-bound and predictable for drone spotting and for pre-registered fires.

aezmvp said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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txags92 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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In order to stop a Russian offensive, they will need to engage directly. They have nowhere near enough switchblades to make an appreciable difference in the even of a full force attack.

IIRC, the eastern and southern portions of the country are "tank country"- wide open steppes with little cover. This is why Ukraine has made a fortified defensive line in the towns and villages, with interconnected earthworks and fortified basements. (Saw a very interesting video from Russian soldiers who captured one of these positions- very well prepared defensive line). In order to stop a major attack they will need to hold these lines and engage with whatever armor they have available.

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Having some drone assets with more loiter time will definitely improve the ability of the Ukrainian artillery to engage some of the Russian formations advancing over open ground.

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Very true.

I think a big takeaway from this war will be the strong success of drone-spotted artillery. Maybe not quite a "game changer" but definitely a big step forward in combined arms warfare.

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The other aspect is the number of front line troops using consumer drones to do recon. I 1000% expect DJI and others to start having additional thermal or night vision options in the very near future. I wouldn't be surprised for mortar teams to have integrated drone spotting going forward as well.

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Absolutely. The US has been employing similar for quite some time now. We were using platoon level UAVs all the way back in 2012.

Strike from Russian "Inokhodets" (Orion) UCAV against Ukrainian truck with towed howitzer.. pic.twitter.com/VoEXuWL7tr

— Yuri Lyamin (@imp_navigator) April 7, 2022

Incredible footage of a Ukrainian drone chasing a Russian soldier back to his unit. Who begin shooting at the drone. The positions is later hit by Ukrainian fire (next tweet) pic.twitter.com/t4mI088jTk

— Woofers (@NotWoofers) April 7, 2022

Soon you will see hunter killer UAV that are faster, detect and home in on other UAV at a greater speed, then close in and detonate a small kill warhead.

Just wait till computer vision/learning is sufficiently advanced to allow these things to operate primarily off of AI. That's when things get really freaky.

#Ukraine: Footage from #Mariupol showing a Ukrainian BTR-4E APC attacking two Russian T-72 tanks from the rear with a 30mm cannon. Apparently, both tanks received serious damage. pic.twitter.com/7ecGv5AwkK

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) April 7, 2022

Are some of those rounds deflecting off? Is that what we are seeing?

FriscoKid said:

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#Ukraine: Footage from #Mariupol showing a Ukrainian BTR-4E APC attacking two Russian T-72 tanks from the rear with a 30mm cannon. Apparently, both tanks received serious damage. pic.twitter.com/7ecGv5AwkK

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) April 7, 2022

Are some of those rounds deflecting off? Is that what we are seeing?

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Yes, looks like deflections off of the tank or other surfaces.

I will assume this is primarily regarding the maintenance of stability in the region post conflict and enforcing the final results pending any increased craziness by Russia. Worth noting nonetheless. Russia's shunning of the de escalation line is only mildly concerning at this point, IMO, unless they announce something insane.

There are also reports that Russian Military and Government Officials continue to not answer deconfliction lines that are in place with the U.S to prevent Severe Escalation in a Conflict. pic.twitter.com/DBH0tLnLFS

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 7, 2022

I imagine not every round has a tracer on it but I could be wrong. The rear hull armor is only going to be an inch or two thick at most so HEAT or APFSDS could penetrate and kill the engine or start a fire, disabling the vehicle.

🌐❌🇨🇳NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg:

“We have seen that China is unwilling to condemn Russia’s aggression. And Beijing has joined Moscow in questioning the right of nations to choose their own path. This is a serious challenge.”

— The RAGE X (@theragex) April 7, 2022

txags92 said:

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FriscoKid said:

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#Ukraine: Footage from #Mariupol showing a Ukrainian BTR-4E APC attacking two Russian T-72 tanks from the rear with a 30mm cannon. Apparently, both tanks received serious damage. pic.twitter.com/7ecGv5AwkK

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) April 7, 2022

Are some of those rounds deflecting off? Is that what we are seeing?

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Yes, looks like deflections off of the tank or other surfaces.

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I only saw one that might have stuck or hit a flat surface. Is the rear armor of a T-80 sufficient to absorb a 0 angle/pitch 30MM round?

Of course Bejing would say that because that's their line with Taiwan. That it's a rogue province and does not have the right to self determination. Ukraine is different, but its easy to see why China would make this their position.

AgLA06 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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txags92 said:

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EastSideAg2002 said:

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At what point will the West be unable to send armor to Ukraine that is old Soviet equipment? All the countries that are sending it are sending based on the principle that the US will be able to backfill that equipment. Does the US have that much old equipment in inventory?

Also, if the war in eastern Ukraine stalemates for months/years, is there any new platforms the West could train the Ukrainians in that time on?

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I read somewhere that we have 3,000 M1A1 tanks stored somewhere with no plans to use them again.

Regarding the 2nd question, I can't see this going on beyond another couple of months at the rate Russia is losing equipment. Russia can't build anymore tanks right now, and they will not be able to continue to maintain alot of their other equipment very soon due to the lack of available spare parts. With the Ukes getting a steady supply of guided munitions and gaining experience with the systems, they are going to become more, not less lethal as a fighting force. If the war stalemates and the Russians are forced to dig in and stay stationary, they will be sitting ducks for Uke artillery and drone strikes. My opinion is that this is over in 3 months or less one way or another.

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This. Russian capabilities are degrading as Ukrainians' are increasing. The longer this goes on, the faster the Russians will lose men and equipment as the disparity grows. Their planned offensive in the east may be their undoing. Everyone knows it's coming, and they're likely going to be at a huge disadvantage walking into a minefield of ambushes.

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If they have half a brain, it won't be from the east. The east will actually be the great feint they lied about Kiev. It will be a penser from the northeast and southeast to encircle the eastern portion of the county. Then hit Kiev again from the north and east.

Yes, every day this goes on Ukraine re-arms. The reality is they only have so many professional soldiers and every day that number drops. Russia is will to throw fodder to absorb munitions. Ukraine can't.

If Ukraine can't push them out in the next month, the war of attrition starts to make long term success much more difficult unless Poland, a coalition of ex-soviet countries, or NATO put boots on the ground.

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Someone else addressed the pincer movement earlier.

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The Russians can't put together a pincer movement because that requires covering distances quickly and we know form the past six weeks that they cannot move far because their log trains weren't designed to support rapid long distance movement. They cannot move fast because they don't know how to employ combined arms (i.e. maneuver communicating with fire support while on the move). As Trent Telenko explained very well in his Twitter posts, the Russian trucks have no forklifts or MHE to load and unload them. They might begin to form the shape of a pincer but it will calcify and become static for lack of fuel and ammo resupply and the Ukrainians will put an even finer polish on the tactics that they employed in February and March against the initial invasion.

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wangus12 said:

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Someone else addressed the pincer movement earlier.

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The Russians can't put together a pincer movement because that requires covering distances quickly and we know form the past six weeks that they cannot move far because their log trains weren't designed to support rapid long distance movement. They cannot move fast because they don't know how to employ combined arms (i.e. maneuver communicating with fire support while on the move). As Trent Telenko explained very well in his Twitter posts, the Russian trucks have no forklifts or MHE to load and unload them. They might begin to form the shape of a pincer but it will calcify and become static for lack of fuel and ammo resupply and the Ukrainians will put an even finer polish on the tactics that they employed in February and March against the initial invasion.

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In this particular conflict, the Russians massively exacerbated their problems by attacking on too many fronts. Like the rest of the world, they expected tanks to roll into the center of Kyiv on Day3.

That would be a gross violation of the Soviet Olds' (and resultant consistently indoctrinated populace's) confirmation bias.

The enemy HAS to be the west. Never mind that the primary distinguishing characteristic of the west is its self absorbed economic interest and general conflict aversion unless an entity blows something up in front of their faces and forces them to engage.