Coverage range (estimate) for both cruise missile and fighter size objects pic.twitter.com/IqDKTZtUcZ

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 6, 2022

G Martin 87 said:

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Rossticus said:

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the geographic location is confirmed by, well, a visual on the ruined nuclear plant, clearly identifiable by its "sarcophagus"

digging trenches in the exclusion zone is not exactly a recommended activity. https://t.co/5zraVGNiNp

— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) April 6, 2022

additional "this really wasn't a good idea" context https://t.co/ab4UgOooV8

— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) April 6, 2022

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The USSR and Russia have a long, sad, terrible history of not treating the dangers of radiation with enough care and respect. The chances of Putin using a nuke somewhere in response to "provocations" by the West cannot be dismissed.

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Repeatedly, we have witnessed one common theme since Feb 24th: Poor judgment.

Rossticus said:

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Statement from Milley yesterday re: Russian deterrence gives a bit of insight into US intel and approach. Excerpted from a larger article.

' Several Republicans asked Milley and Austin whether the US failed in its efforts to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from attacking Ukraine. Milley responded that he did not think Putin could have been deterred unless US forces had deployed from Ukraine a scenario he would have advised against had it been proposed.

"Candidly, short of the commitment of US military forces into Ukraine proper, I'm not sure he was deterrable. This has been a long-term objective of his that goes back years," Milley said. "I think the idea of deterring Putin from invading Ukraine, deterring him by the United States, would have required the commitment of US military forces, and I think that would have risked armed conflict with Russia, which I certainly wouldn't have advised." '

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I wonder where Milley was during Operation Deny Flight. There were no NATO boots on the ground and there was still shooting going on throughout the opetation but it was approved to prevent or impede a genocide in a country that was not part of NATO.

Corruption has hollowed out everything else, and stealing the money for aircraft spares is a tradition even in the West.

This particularly applies to Russia’s scarce high-tech planes capable of surviving in Ukraine’s integrated air defense system zone.
2/

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) April 6, 2022

We should be looking for evidence of this happening.

There is some already in terms of the Su-35S SEAD sortie that got killed a day ago.

The EWSP Jamming pod failed versus an old S-300 SAM threat Russia itself designed & built.

3/End pic.twitter.com/X2Kbvptpt5

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) April 6, 2022

He spoke out against immediately trying to recapture the regions Russia took control of in 2014 as that would cost “50,000 lives”. (Dragon Capital)

— Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) April 6, 2022

MeatDr said:

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Coverage range (estimate) for both cruise missile and fighter size objects pic.twitter.com/IqDKTZtUcZ

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 6, 2022

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Why not fly over the Black Sea, out of curiosity.

Isn't most of it open waters or does Russia claim it as theirs?

They were firing missiles at a higher rate of usage so you knew this was bound to happen. That much missile expenditure wasn’t sustainable

— Знищити Росію-Support Freedom (@2Aforall) April 6, 2022

Ulysses90 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Statement from Milley yesterday re: Russian deterrence gives a bit of insight into US intel and approach. Excerpted from a larger article.

' Several Republicans asked Milley and Austin whether the US failed in its efforts to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from attacking Ukraine. Milley responded that he did not think Putin could have been deterred unless US forces had deployed from Ukraine a scenario he would have advised against had it been proposed.

"Candidly, short of the commitment of US military forces into Ukraine proper, I'm not sure he was deterrable. This has been a long-term objective of his that goes back years," Milley said. "I think the idea of deterring Putin from invading Ukraine, deterring him by the United States, would have required the commitment of US military forces, and I think that would have risked armed conflict with Russia, which I certainly wouldn't have advised." '

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I wonder where Milley was during Operation Deny Flight. There were no NATO boots on the ground and there was still shooting going on throughout the opetation but it was approved to prevent or impede a genocide in a country that was not part of NATO.

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Operation Deny Flight would fall under "commitment of US forces."

This is how we know the Russians planned for a very short engagement and/or limited international response. A lot of their military's equipment relies on foreign sourced parts, with some actually coming from Ukraine. As it stands, they are being denied just about everything. They've supposedly already stopped tank production due to an inability to source parts and materials, and this would be just another indicator of how impacted they are.

If they've gone through all or almost all of their stockpiles, they're going to have a hard time defending against the Ukrainians who can get PGM's, ATGM's, MANPADS, loitering munitions, etc from the West. IMO we should be giving them longer range weapons to hit strategic targets and cutoff Russia's ability to support operations in Ukrainian territory.

It also says something if China refused to meet with them. China either wants a weak Russia or doesn't want to be associated with the bad press (culturally they are all about maintaining face) and a losing partner.

Personally, I hope Russia is kicked out and told sanctions will remain until politicians and officers responsible are scapegoated handed over for tribunals. If Russia is running out of munitions like rockets, that could very well be possible.

As has been mentioned several times on several platforms by many people, an extended war is not something that Russia can sustain. A war of attrition is not something Russia can sustain. They are losing too much too quickly for too little. They have to find a "win" within months.

— Woofers (@NotWoofers) April 6, 2022

Again, I believe the Russians will attempt to end things after they take the Donbas area. Which is not an easy feat on its own or guaranteed, but they are pouring men into the area and making continual gains. I can't see them willingly fighting a war after this area is taken.

— Woofers (@NotWoofers) April 6, 2022

Miley says he doesn't think Putin could have been deterred, but I guess we'll never know because we didn't even try. If we had matched his build up and sent 200,000 to Poland and the Baltics, maybe he would have been deterred.

I think it would have been in our best interest. Putin would have been deterred for a long time, and potentially permanently. He's 69. Another few years and he will be, "too old for this ****."

It also would have likely sent the right messages to China without the cost in human lives.

I can't find a single legitimate military target here. Just horrific.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/txosfz/aerial_survey_of_village_moschun_destroyed_by/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

I don't think anyone thought Ukraine would fight as hard as it has or that Russia would be as inept as they have been. Most would have thought a quick win in Ukraine followed by a threat against Poland or the Baltics was at least a possibility.

GAC06 said:

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Miley says he doesn't think Putin could have been deterred, but I guess we'll never know because we didn't even try. If we had matched his build up and sent 200,000 to Poland and the Baltics, maybe he would have been deterred.

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Deterred until we leave or Putin dies. A large deployment for an indefinite amount of time would have been required. It might have been enough, but it would still have left NATO countries with little incentive to share the cost of their own defense. How long do we continue to babysit Europe? Indefinitely? Until Russian dreams of glory and relevance fade?

GAC06 said:

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I don't think anyone thought Ukraine would fight as hard as it has or that Russia would be as inept as they have been. Most would have thought a quick win in Ukraine followed by a threat against Poland or the Baltics was at least a possibility.

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Many see Russia as the power it was in 1941-1945 with massive hordes rolling back Germany/Romania.

These guys claim they've been able to get some military equipment in to Mariupol.

"We were able to deliver help to Mariupol

The Ukrainian city, which the enemy is destroying the most now, continues to defend itself! Our team managed to transfer thermal imagers, quadcopters and power banks to the defenses of Mariupol. And, despite the complex logistics, we will do it again! And more!"

Ми змогли доставити допомогу у Маріуполь🥺🇺🇦

Українське місто, яке ворог знищує зараз найбільше, продовжує тримати оборону! Нашій команді вдалося передати захисним Маріуполя тепловізори, квадрокоптери і павербанки. І, попри надскладну логістику, ми будемо робити це ще! І ще! pic.twitter.com/gFX7o3Bpir

— Повернись живим (@BackAndAlive) April 6, 2022

JFABNRGR said:

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Rossticus said:

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Russia with even more forced deportations. Ethnic cleansing. Bull*****

Russian occupiers are deporting residents of occupied Izyum and Kharkiv Oblast to Russia, creating filtration camps.

Russian media say Russia has brought 615k Ukrainians to Russia, including 121 children -
🇺🇦 Ombudswoman Denysova https://t.co/PXn6blEtRa

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) April 6, 2022

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and now one of the few assets they can trade for the lifting of sanctions....

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Could these be Russian supporters?

Quote:

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Could these be Russian supporters?

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Some of them, possibly. One thing the Soviets and now Russians are very good at is making people disappear.

Yes, they could be.

pagerman @ work said:

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GAC06 said:

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Miley says he doesn't think Putin could have been deterred, but I guess we'll never know because we didn't even try. If we had matched his build up and sent 200,000 to Poland and the Baltics, maybe he would have been deterred.

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I think that would have simply stoked his existing fears of NATO encroachment on Russia's borders, thereby further justifying (in his mind) the invasion in the first place.

Simply stationing a bunch of troops in countries that aren't Ukraine would not have deterred his invasion of Ukraine. Further, the calculus of fighting Russia would have been exactly the same, meaning we wouldn't have done it.

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I don't claim to know whether deterrence would have worked, but we won't know because we didn't try is what I'm saying. It may not have been feasible with pre-Ukraine NATO but we know that projecting weakness wouldn't deter Putin since that's what we did and he did in fact invade.

BigJim49 AustinNowDallas said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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Rossticus said:

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Russia with even more forced deportations. Ethnic cleansing. Bull*****

Russian occupiers are deporting residents of occupied Izyum and Kharkiv Oblast to Russia, creating filtration camps.

Russian media say Russia has brought 615k Ukrainians to Russia, including 121 children -
🇺🇦 Ombudswoman Denysova https://t.co/PXn6blEtRa

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) April 6, 2022

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and now one of the few assets they can trade for the lifting of sanctions....

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Could these be Russian supporters?

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That wouldn't make sense. If Russia wants to hold the region the last thing they want to do is remove supporters. If anything you remove non-supporters and bring in insentavized supporters from Russia or surrounding territory to populate the region.

MeatDr said:

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These guys claim they've been able to get some military equipment in to Mariupol.

"We were able to deliver help to Mariupol

The Ukrainian city, which the enemy is destroying the most now, continues to defend itself! Our team managed to transfer thermal imagers, quadcopters and power banks to the defenses of Mariupol. And, despite the complex logistics, we will do it again! And more!"

Ми змогли доставити допомогу у Маріуполь🥺🇺🇦

Українське місто, яке ворог знищує зараз найбільше, продовжує тримати оборону! Нашій команді вдалося передати захисним Маріуполя тепловізори, квадрокоптери і павербанки. І, попри надскладну логістику, ми будемо робити це ще! І ще! pic.twitter.com/gFX7o3Bpir

— Повернись живим (@BackAndAlive) April 6, 2022

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There was a Twitter post I read earlier today that said the evac flight that got shot down in Mariupol wasn't a one-off, but Ukraine had been doing re-supply and med evac for awhile and they were just unlucky Russian troops were nearby with a manpads.

MeatDr said:

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These guys claim they've been able to get some military equipment in to Mariupol.

"We were able to deliver help to Mariupol

The Ukrainian city, which the enemy is destroying the most now, continues to defend itself! Our team managed to transfer thermal imagers, quadcopters and power banks to the defenses of Mariupol. And, despite the complex logistics, we will do it again! And more!"

Ми змогли доставити допомогу у Маріуполь🥺🇺🇦

Українське місто, яке ворог знищує зараз найбільше, продовжує тримати оборону! Нашій команді вдалося передати захисним Маріуполя тепловізори, квадрокоптери і павербанки. І, попри надскладну логістику, ми будемо робити це ще! І ще! pic.twitter.com/gFX7o3Bpir

— Повернись живим (@BackAndAlive) April 6, 2022

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Why would you say this? Just do it and don't compromise yourselves and the defenders.