Uncaring at best fits the objective. When Russians start seeing Russian Refugees, it could cause Putin more internal opposition

Might be easier to pull troops out of the East than to push them out with head to head conflict. Plus in would put Occupied Territory in Russia on the negotiating table

93MarineHorn said:

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Quote:

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Any doubters really need to read Gulag Archipelago to see what the russians are capable of doing, even to their own people. The author was a soldier on the frontlines who came or was thought to have come into experiencing some of the culture of their enemy at the time, so the russians sent him along with many other front line soldiers and other suspected non conformists.

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It was too rough a read and I stopped after a few hundred pages. If I remember, Solzhenitsyn wrote a letter from the front lines during WW2 that was critical of the Army and it was read by censors. He was sent to gulags for the next several years. The seemingly endless stories he tells of how easily people were shipped off to gulags and worked to death is heartbreaking. If you were remotely thought to be not 100% in total agreement with the Party, you'd be tortured or family threatened until you "confessed" to crimes against the state.

One ranking party member was sent to the gulags because he was the first person to stop clapping when Stalin's name was brought up at a function. After several minutes of clapping, he finally sat down and took his seat while others continued on. That was all it took.

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If anyone had any contact with the west, be it Russian POWs captured by the German, American, etc. than Stalin would send them to gulags where they were awarded the opportunity to work themselves to death. Stalin killed millions of Russians and that attitude amoungst the leaders has not gone away. You are just a number, not a person, to the leaders.

torrid said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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torrid said:

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Gilligan said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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Here is the drone video of the faked murder of bicycle guy in Bucha.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/tww401/the_video_shows_the_murder_of_ukrainian_cyclist/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Any doubters really need to read Gulag Archipelago to see what the russians are capable of doing, even to their own people. The author was a soldier on the frontlines who came or was thought to have come into experiencing some of the culture of their enemy at the time, so the russians sent him along with many other front line soldiers and other suspected non conformists.

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Good Lord, he took a left hand turn to his death. He had no way of knowing that huge column of Russians were right around the corner. So sad!

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Did they actually fire a tank at a guy on a bicycle?

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Was it a tank round or could it have been artillery/mortar? I looked for a muzzle flash but didn't see one, granted that's not conclusive one way or another.

If that was a UKR drone, it could have been spotting indirect fire on that big fat target of an armored column.

I was thinking with the way the bodies are laid out all over the place, they could have been caught in the open by artillery fire. That would make more logical sense than Russian troops machine gunning civilians marked as friendlies.

And before I get dragged as Putin fanboy or Ivan, I'd like to know the truth of the matter since this incident is being strongly pushed to garner more Western support/involvement.

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I thought I saw the lead tracked vehicle firing not long after the guy rounded the corner.

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Just watched again, looks like you are correct. I was initially focusing on the vehicle on the far right just at the intersection. Awful stuff. Plenty of guys in the column should have had eyes on bicycle guy as he came down the street.

So question for those who know more about military strategy. Its been said that Ukraine will be properly armed for a defensive battle, but doesn't have the armor for offensive.

Can they not still use the same tactics to press the russian lines? Neutralize Russian armor as silently and as weapon lite as possible through using drones, manpads, and supply route attacks? Death by a thousand cuts, not a blitzkrieg.

one MEEN Ag said:

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So question for those who know more about military strategy. Its been said that Ukraine will be properly armed for a defensive battle, but doesn't have the armor for offensive.

Can they not still use the same tactics to press the russian lines? Neutralize Russian armor as silently and as weapon lite as possible through using drones, manpads, and supply route attacks? Death by a thousand cuts, not a blitzkrieg.

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They've been able to identify vehicles that were out in the open and take them out. When in a defensive position, would seem to be much harder to achieve as they can have a layered levels of defense and you'd have to get close enough for those weapons to be effective. For example, you might have issues with being exposed once a missile is fired and a flight time concern of counter-fire?

one MEEN Ag said:

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So question for those who know more about military strategy. Its been said that Ukraine will be properly armed for a defensive battle, but doesn't have the armor for offensive.

Can they not still use the same tactics to press the russian lines? Neutralize Russian armor as silently and as weapon lite as possible through using drones, manpads, and supply route attacks? Death by a thousand cuts, not a blitzkrieg.

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The problem for that may be that in the Donbas front, the Russian lines will have pretty solid artillery and air coverage out in front of the forward most armor units. Getting in close enough might be difficult, especially in great enough numbers to cause significant disruption.

ETA: there will certainly be use of those methods you describe of course, but again the real question is can they use them to cause enough disruption to blunt an offensive?

one MEEN Ag said:

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So question for those who know more about military strategy. Its been said that Ukraine will be properly armed for a defensive battle, but doesn't have the armor for offensive.

Can they not still use the same tactics to press the russian lines? Neutralize Russian armor as silently and as weapon lite as possible through using drones, manpads, and supply route attacks? Death by a thousand cuts, not a blitzkrieg.

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I would imagine they're going to try to harass the western flank of the Russian effort (around Kharkiv) and if they can push/hold the southern front with Russia, harass lines coming out of Crimea.

If Russia continues to try to encircle Ukrainian troops, Russia will have ever increasingly long north-south lines, all of which will be exposed to Ukrainian harassment from the west.

TXAggie2011 said:

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one MEEN Ag said:

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So question for those who know more about military strategy. Its been said that Ukraine will be properly armed for a defensive battle, but doesn't have the armor for offensive.

Can they not still use the same tactics to press the russian lines? Neutralize Russian armor as silently and as weapon lite as possible through using drones, manpads, and supply route attacks? Death by a thousand cuts, not a blitzkrieg.

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I would imagine they're going to try to harass the western flank of the Russian effort (around Kharkiv) and if they can push/hold the southern front with Russia, harass lines coming out of Crimea.

If Russia continues to try to encircle Ukrainian troops, Russia will have ever increasingly long north-south lines, all of which will be exposed to Ukrainian harassment from the west.

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I'd love for Ukraine to win this war entirely and push Russia all the way out. I just don't think that likely at this point. Eventually there will come a stalemate in the East as Russia pulls the entire invasion force to bolster the Eastern offensive. Which means Ukraine needs to start thinking about best case scenarios and bargaining chips for later negotiations.

The problem is even if the Ukes are successful around Kharkiv, they are extremely exposed from Russia being that close to the RU boarder. Really easy for RU to send an armored column from the north behind them.

Their biggest opportunity is to take Kherson in the South so they can then push east towards Melitpol and south towards Crimea. Crimea is the biggest bargaining chip they could win at this point to bargain for Eastern Ukraine at the negotiation table.

If the Ukes can take the south to the border with Crimea and can form a new defensive line from Sumy in the north to Melitpol on the coast in the south, they will have been very successful. Crimea would be a cherry on top and destroy the damn bridge.

Quote:

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If the Ukes can take the south to the border with Crimea and can form a new defensive line from Sumy in the north to Melitpol on the coast in the south, they will have been very successful. Crimea would be a cherry on top and destroy the damn bridge.

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The Kerch Strait Bridge is a strategic target. Need to take that out.

MeatDr said:

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Taking the start of this list from BattleGrackle, I'm starting a diplomat expulsion cumulative post. I've tried to only include actual diplomats and not other staff where that information is available. I welcome corrections.

Total diplomats expelled to date as of this post: 327+

Belgium - 21 (Mar 29)
Bulgaria - 10 (Mar 18)
Czech Republic - 1 (Mar 29)
Denmark - 15 (Apr 5)
Estonia - 3 (Mar 18), 7 (Apr 5)
France - 35 (Apr 4)
Germany - 40 (Apr 4)
Italy - 30 (Apr 5)
Ireland - 4 (Mar 29)
Latvia - 3* (Mar 18), ? **(Apr 5)
Lithuania - 4* (Mar 18), ambassador also expelled (Apr 4)
Montenegro - 1 (Apr 4)
Netherlands - 17 (Mar 29)
North Macedonia - 5 (Mar 28)
Poland - 45 (Mar 23)
Romania - 10 (Apr 5)
Slovakia - 3 (Mar 14), 35 (Mar 31)
Spain - 25 (Apr 5)
Sweden - 3 (Apr 5)
USA - 12 (Feb 28)

* In March a joint statement from Baltic states was released that 10 diplomats were being expelled, 7 between Lithuania and Latvia
** Apr 5 Latvia expelled 13 diplomats and employees, unknown how many of each.

Feel free to add/edit

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Romania added.

Well you never know. Look at all the people that said it would be over in a couple of weeks. I hope we can up their weapons capabilities a bit to give them a real shot.

MeatDr said:

---

Taking the start of this list from BattleGrackle, I'm starting a diplomat expulsion cumulative post. I've tried to only include actual diplomats and not other staff where that information is available. I welcome corrections.

Total diplomats expelled to date as of this post: 360+

Belgium - 21 (Mar 29)
Bulgaria - 10 (Mar 18)
Czech Republic - 1 (Mar 29)
Denmark - 15 (Apr 5)
Estonia - 3 (Mar 18), 7 (Apr 5)
France - 35 (Apr 4)
Germany - 40 (Apr 4)
Italy - 30 (Apr 5)
Ireland - 4 (Mar 29)
Latvia - 3* (Mar 18), ? **(Apr 5)
Lithuania - 4* (Mar 18), ambassador also expelled (Apr 4)
Montenegro - 1 (Apr 4)
Netherlands - 17 (Mar 29)
North Macedonia - 5 (Mar 28)
Poland - 45 (Mar 23)
Romania - 10 (Apr 5)
Slovakia - 3 (Mar 14), 35 (Mar 31)
Slovenia - 33 (Apr 5)
Spain - 25 (Apr 5)
Sweden - 3 (Apr 5)
USA - 12 (Feb 28)

* In March a joint statement from Baltic states was released that 10 diplomats were being expelled, 7 between Lithuania and Latvia
** Apr 5 Latvia expelled 13 diplomats and employees, unknown how many of each.

Feel free to add/edit

---

Slovenia added also.

torrid said:

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Gilligan said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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Here is the drone video of the faked murder of bicycle guy in Bucha.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/tww401/the_video_shows_the_murder_of_ukrainian_cyclist/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Any doubters really need to read Gulag Archipelago to see what the russians are capable of doing, even to their own people. The author was a soldier on the frontlines who came or was thought to have come into experiencing some of the culture of their enemy at the time, so the russians sent him along with many other front line soldiers and other suspected non conformists.

---

Good Lord, he took a left hand turn to his death. He had no way of knowing that huge column of Russians were right around the corner. So sad!

---

Did they actually fire a tank at a guy on a bicycle?

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Probably 20mm or similar from the APC.

BlueSmoke said:

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one MEEN Ag said:

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So question for those who know more about military strategy. Its been said that Ukraine will be properly armed for a defensive battle, but doesn't have the armor for offensive.

Can they not still use the same tactics to press the russian lines? Neutralize Russian armor as silently and as weapon lite as possible through using drones, manpads, and supply route attacks? Death by a thousand cuts, not a blitzkrieg.

---

They've been able to identify vehicles that were out in the open and take them out. When in a defensive position, would seem to be much harder to achieve as they can have a layered levels of defense and you'd have to get close enough for those weapons to be effective. For example, you might have issues with being exposed once a missile is fired and a flight time concern of counter-fire?

---

Bayraktars and switchblades can strike from a long way off. MANPADS and ATGMs could be used to repel assaults, but the drones could attack armor while keeping it at arms length. Think archers vs knights. Basically keep the Russians on their toes and mitigate their armor advantage.

It could be an effective strategy to slowly push the Russians and bleed them. Depends on the Russian response.

Quote:

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Bayraktars and switchblades can strike from a long way off. MANPADS and ATGMs could be used to repel assaults, but the drones could attack armor while keeping it at arms length. Think archers vs knights. Basically keep the Russians on their toes and mitigate their armor advantage.

It could be an effective strategy to slowly push the Russians and bleed them. Depends on the Russian response.

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How far off? I ask because I am thinking about sabotage of the rail lines in Belarus and Russia transporting troops and materiel to Donbas?

Hard to attack entrenched defenses with artillery emplacements in the rear. When the Ukrainians mass for an attack, the artillery and rockets come down. Winning the fortified territory back won't be so easy.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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Bayraktars and switchblades can strike from a long way off. MANPADS and ATGMs could be used to repel assaults, but the drones could attack armor while keeping it at arms length. Think archers vs knights. Basically keep the Russians on their toes and mitigate their armor advantage.

It could be an effective strategy to slowly push the Russians and bleed them. Depends on the Russian response.

---

How far off? I ask because I am thinking about sabotage of the rail lines in Belarus and Russia transporting troops and materiel to Donbas?

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That would be interesting if they could destroy the rail lines near the border so that Russia would have to go further into the country to reroute. It could maybe buy them some time.

Just think if the Ukes were able to threaten Sevastopol with drones or other military assets with memory of what the Ukes were able to do Berdyans'k or as others have mentioned to threaten the bridges in that region.

Could the Ukes then bargin for a complete Russian withdrawl from all contested territory by agreeing to formally cede the Crimea? On the other hand, Russa probably sees controlling territory to at least the east bank of Dnieper river as critical to the protection of Sevastopol/Crimea since it seems Russia's vision of controlling all of the Black Sea coast in Ukraine is out the window?

The drones they have can't carry a big enough payload to take out a rail line vs just shutting it down for a short while. Unless they can take out a bridge.

Quote:

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That would be interesting if they could destroy the rail lines near the border so that Russia would have to go further into the country to reroute. It could maybe buy them some time.

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My thought process is using them to blow up the rail lines while there have tanks and other vehicles on them. Not only the loss of the line but loss of those items as well. So diverting to a rail line further inside the country doesn't solve the problem of losing more materiel.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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Bayraktars and switchblades can strike from a long way off. MANPADS and ATGMs could be used to repel assaults, but the drones could attack armor while keeping it at arms length. Think archers vs knights. Basically keep the Russians on their toes and mitigate their armor advantage.

It could be an effective strategy to slowly push the Russians and bleed them. Depends on the Russian response.

---

How far off? I ask because I am thinking about sabotage of the rail lines in Belarus and Russia transporting troops and materiel to Donbas?

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Operational range
10 km (6.2 mi) or 15 min (Switchblade 300)
40 km (25 mi) or 40 min (Switchblade 600)
Flight ceiling 15,000 ft (4,600 m)
Flight altitude <500 ft (150 m)
Maximum speed Model 300:
63 miles per hour (101 km/h) (cruise); 100 miles per hour (160 km/h) (dash)
Model 600:
113 km/h (70 mph) (cruise); 185 km/h (115 mph) (dash)
Guidance system
Autonomous; manual
Launch platform
Portable tube; multipack; assorted vehicles

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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That would be interesting if they could destroy the rail lines near the border so that Russia would have to go further into the country to reroute. It could maybe buy them some time.

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My thought process is using them to blow up the rail lines while there have tanks and other vehicles on them. Not only the loss of the line but loss of those items as well. So diverting to a rail line further inside the country doesn't solve the problem of losing more materiel.

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Even better strategery.

Mariupol surrender might be fake news

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1591385/Ukraine-latest-mariupol-surrender-video-russia-propaganda

USA*** said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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Bayraktars and switchblades can strike from a long way off. MANPADS and ATGMs could be used to repel assaults, but the drones could attack armor while keeping it at arms length. Think archers vs knights. Basically keep the Russians on their toes and mitigate their armor advantage.

It could be an effective strategy to slowly push the Russians and bleed them. Depends on the Russian response.

---

How far off? I ask because I am thinking about sabotage of the rail lines in Belarus and Russia transporting troops and materiel to Donbas?

---

Operational range
10 km (6.2 mi) or 15 min (Switchblade 300)
40 km (25 mi) or 40 min (Switchblade 600)
Flight ceiling 15,000 ft (4,600 m)
Flight altitude <500 ft (150 m)
Maximum speed Model 300:
63 miles per hour (101 km/h) (cruise); 100 miles per hour (160 km/h) (dash)
Model 600:
113 km/h (70 mph) (cruise); 185 km/h (115 mph) (dash)
Guidance system
Autonomous; manual
Launch platform
Portable tube; multipack; assorted vehicles

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Thanks. Next question: Can our surveillance target those lines in real time and pass that targeting info directly to the guidance systems?

aggiehawg said:

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USA*** said:

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aggiehawg said:

---

Quote:

---

Bayraktars and switchblades can strike from a long way off. MANPADS and ATGMs could be used to repel assaults, but the drones could attack armor while keeping it at arms length. Think archers vs knights. Basically keep the Russians on their toes and mitigate their armor advantage.

It could be an effective strategy to slowly push the Russians and bleed them. Depends on the Russian response.

---

How far off? I ask because I am thinking about sabotage of the rail lines in Belarus and Russia transporting troops and materiel to Donbas?

---

Operational range
10 km (6.2 mi) or 15 min (Switchblade 300)
40 km (25 mi) or 40 min (Switchblade 600)
Flight ceiling 15,000 ft (4,600 m)
Flight altitude <500 ft (150 m)
Maximum speed Model 300:
63 miles per hour (101 km/h) (cruise); 100 miles per hour (160 km/h) (dash)
Model 600:
113 km/h (70 mph) (cruise); 185 km/h (115 mph) (dash)
Guidance system
Autonomous; manual
Launch platform
Portable tube; multipack; assorted vehicles

---

Thanks. Next question: Can our surveillance target those lines in real time and pass that targeting info directly to the guidance systems?

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Don't know. If they can, it's probably classified. Been a long time since I did things like that. It would be problematic, though. While links and transmissions can be encrypted, they still emit energy that can be tracked back to a source. If we did it, we would essentially be entering the war by putting weapons on target.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Hard to attack entrenched defenses with artillery emplacements in the rear. When the Ukrainians mass for an attack, the artillery and rockets come down. Winning the fortified territory back won't be so easy.

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Yep.

What people don't seem to realize is Ukraine is as large and as diverse geologically as Texas. It's a hell of a lot easier to assault and ambush forces in the north because it was rolling forested terrain. That's not the same in the east. It's literally wide open planes covered in crops. There's no where to mass troops that can be hidden. It would probably require complete destruction of both armies to do. Russia can regroup and refit and be back in a year. Ukraine can't.

If there is a large class on the eastern front it will be very deadly to both sides. The one thing Russia has going for it is lots and lots of fodder in the form of conscripts and old equipment. Ukraine does not.

MeatDr said:

---

Taking the start of this list from BattleGrackle, I'm starting a diplomat expulsion cumulative post. I've tried to only include actual diplomats and not other staff where that information is available. I welcome corrections.

Total diplomats expelled to date as of this post: 370+

Belgium - 21 (Mar 29)
Bulgaria - 10 (Mar 18)
Czech Republic - 1 (Mar 29)
Denmark - 15 (Apr 5)
Estonia - 3 (Mar 18), 7 (Apr 5)
France - 35 (Apr 4)
Germany - 40 (Apr 4)
Italy - 30 (Apr 5)
Ireland - 4 (Mar 29)
Latvia - 3* (Mar 18), ? **(Apr 5)
Lithuania - 4* (Mar 18), ambassador also expelled (Apr 4)
Montenegro - 1 (Apr 4)
Netherlands - 17 (Mar 29)
North Macedonia - 5 (Mar 28)
Poland - 45 (Mar 23)
Portugal - 10 (Apr 5)
Romania - 10 (Apr 5)
Slovakia - 3 (Mar 14), 35 (Mar 31)
Slovenia - 33 (Apr 5)
Spain - 25 (Apr 5)
Sweden - 3 (Apr 5)
USA - 12 (Feb 28)

* In March a joint statement from Baltic states was released that 10 diplomats were being expelled, 7 between Lithuania and Latvia
** Apr 5 Latvia expelled 13 diplomats and employees, unknown how many of each.

Feel free to add/edit

---

And now Portugal.

Take out a rail bridge with an engine hauling tanks and Multiple Rocket Launchers. That's 3 birds.

AlaskanAg99 said:

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The drones they have can't carry a big enough payload to take out a rail line vs just shutting it down for a short while. Unless they can take out a bridge.

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Their airforce can, but it would require very large losses. If they could ever get a hold of the replacement aircraft they have been begging for, it could be an option.

The biggest threat to the Russian force is to require them to move without the help of rail. That undermaintaned equipment couldn't do it. Much of the equipment in the north would never make it to the east if it had to do so under its own power.

The Sanctions are reported to include, a Complete Ban on Russian Ships in European Ports, U.S and EU Companies are Banned from Operating within Russia, Closure and Restrictions on Border Crossings into Russia, and Changes in Diplomatic Status from multiple Western Countries.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 5, 2022

None of those weapons can do much to actual rail infrastructure. They could take out locomotives though. The switchblades are man portable too so that opens a wide range of options with infiltration