⚡️The EU will ban Russian Vessels from accessing EU ports. However this excludes vessels carrying food, aid and energy. -Von Der Leyen⚡️

— spook (@spook_info) April 5, 2022

More detail on newest EU sanctions.

https://t.co/3cBlyUfOJN

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) April 5, 2022

Russian economy projected to contract 10-15%, inflation projected at 23% YoY.

Quote:

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The S&P Global purchasing managers' index (PMI) for Russia, published on Friday, dropped from 48.6 in February to 44.1 in March, with anything below 50 representing contraction. Goldman Sachs economists noted on Friday that the fall was "broad-based, with sharp drops in the output, new orders, and (especially) the new exports orders components."

In a note Wednesday, economists at Capital Economics projected that Western sanctions are likely to push Russian gross domestic product into a 12% contraction in 2022, while inflation is expected to exceed 23% year-on-year.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has projected a 10% shrinkage in the Russian economy, which would still constitute the country's deepest recession for almost 30 years, with GDP then flatlining in 2023 and entering a prolonged period of negligible growth.

Goldman Sachs has also forecast a 10% contraction, while the Institute for International Finance think tank has projected a more damaging 15% plunge in Russian GDP in 2022 and a further 3% in 2023.

---

This may get worse with new sanctions.

The news this morning said EU is getting ready to place their 5th set of sanctions on Russia….. but none include banning the importation of natural gas. It's all a joke…

The projected impact of sanctions are becoming less dramatic. It's as if they have a wealthy nation backstopping them financially. Well not as if, they must. Who else bought all those rubles to keep them afloat?

BlueTaze said:

---

How do you define "winning"?

Would Russian annexation of Eastern Ukraine and Western Ukraine joining NATO be considered winning?

I think an outcome along those lines is the best the West can hope for. We are in uncharted territory with a compromised POTUS and incompetent VP. We don't even know who is really calling the shots now. We do know Biden is thought to have worst foreign policy acumen in history and likely has largest closet of skeletons in history. That's scary. Maybe not as scary as mean tweets, but pretty scary.

---

Russia has been pretty clear about their aims: a non west aligned buffer state, if not a puppet state status for Ukraine, "independent" (puppet) states in the east of Ukraine, and holding Crimea.

If they can do that, they'll have achieved their "win", albeit at a cost that many would find reprehensible and irrational. Russia is culturally sensitive (paranoid) regarding invasion, so they want a cocoon of friendly states to nest in.

BlueTaze said:

---

How do you define "winning"?

Would Russian annexation of Eastern Ukraine and Western Ukraine joining NATO be considered winning?

I think an outcome along those lines is the best the West can hope for. We are in uncharted territory with a compromised POTUS and incompetent VP. We don't even know who is really calling the shots now. We do know Biden is thought to have worst foreign policy acumen in history and likely has largest closet of skeletons in history. That's scary. Maybe not as scary as mean tweets, but pretty scary.

---

I think we can objectively understand their initial operating goals based on statements between Yukanovich and others previously involved in the Russian backed Ukrainian governments that were overthrown and the operational concept that the Russians used.

It was clear that the Russians were trying to put a puppet regime in place. The strike at Kyiv and most importantly two major features: rapid advance of unsupported armor and heliborne assaults to secure multiple airports outside Kyiv really demonstrate this. Grab those airports, fly in VDV and then use the rushed armor to support and go into Kyiv to seize the government. It's possible (though difficult to discern from propaganda) that multiple attempts by SOF and mercenary teams went into Kyiv to go after Zelensky in the first week or so. There were at least 3-4 reported attempts, but again we don't really know how much of that to believe, but I would bet that 1-2 were real.

If you look at their massive assaults on Sumy and Kharkiv these were done to try and seize massive transportation hubs to then advance on the Dnieper and cut off the professional Uke military. So decapitating the Uke government and then cutting off the supply routes for their army. But they failed massively. Now you're seeing a new push to secure the South East and the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. That is an achievable goal if they can surge their forces before the Ukes can. I don't think they can, but it's war. Anything can happen.

BlueTaze said:

---

It's hard to make any objective comments on strategy here without being labeled pro-Putin, but at the onset he likely considered collateral damage as his own future expense. In that indiscriminately blowing everything up would be a stupid thing to do for someone who us gonna takeover the rubble.

Since those initial couple weeks the bombardment and collateral damage has increased as local and global resistance has strengthened.

The narrative is that Putin was completely incompetent initially and now he is committing genocide. The problem is our own state dept is rejecting claims of Putin genocide. That's coming next as Zelenskyy is pushing that term now to expedite Western involvement.

What I don't understand is Biden pushing some war crime trial strategy as if there is going Nuremberg 2.0. Feels a lot like red meat he is throwing out there. He should be talking about how the US is going to take all of Putins commodity market share. Biden is a weak compromised old man reading scripts. Everyone knows it, and it's why Russia and China are taking advantage. Dem voters are most to blame for this mess.

---

It's like a kid who tries to steal a toy from another kid, and when told to give it back (and he realizes he doesn't have a choice), he drops it on the ground and shatters it into a million pieces. He doesn't need to rebuild Ukraine, he just wants the west to stay away.

The genocide part is a tough road to go down. With Nazi Germany, you had piles of documentation and testimony showing a top down policy and direction of extermination. With Russia, you have a mafia situation of "take care of it", and a populace that has a mentality of viewing "Khokhols" as second class humans. So if I'm a low educated soldier, who's cold and has seen his buddies dying, and I'm surrounded by all these second class humans who are the indirect source of all of my troubles, what's going to happen? Especially when there's no repercussions, or even cheering once the circular bloodlust atmosphere starts. Humans are at their core, still animals, and war brings out the worse of that core.

Secolobo said:

---

The news this morning said EU is getting ready to place their 5th set of sanctions on Russia….. but none include banning the importation of natural gas. It's all a joke…

---

That's because everyone in the EU except Germany, Austria, and Hungary are in favor of banning the import of Russian natural gas, except Germany, Austria, and Hungary are blocking those measures. Weird how history repeats itself.

Here is the drone video of the faked murder of bicycle guy in Bucha.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/tww401/the_video_shows_the_murder_of_ukrainian_cyclist/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Any doubters really need to read Gulag Archipelago to see what the russians are capable of doing, even to their own people. The author was a soldier on the frontlines who came or was thought to have come into experiencing some of the culture of their enemy at the time, so the russians sent him along with many other front line soldiers and other suspected non conformists.

Getting back to strategy and tactics for a minute - the changes in Russian deployments marks a very significant change in Russian strategy. They (correctly, if not belatedly) realized the failure of their initial strategy - a strategy that was dooming them to certain failure given the resistance put up by Ukraine.

As soon as they get their forces repositioned I look for them to accelerate their offensive in the east (as well as the northern/southern flanks). If they can push through and/or encircle some Ukrainian forces this doesn't bode well for Ukraine. If they manage to do that they should be able to force themselves all the way to the Dneiper within a few weeks. Hopefully Ukraine can match their re-deployment and hold them back.

The next 2 weeks will be very interesting. If things continue to go badly for Russia at that point I would not be surprised to see them drop a couple nukes on Kyiv and maybe Odessa at which point I think Ukraine folds. Given Russia's war crimes that are becoming evident I think Putin probably no longer sees any downside to doing so.

JFABNRGR said:

---

Here is the drone video of the faked murder of bicycle guy in Bucha.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/tww401/the_video_shows_the_murder_of_ukrainian_cyclist/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Any doubters really need to read Gulag Archipelago to see what the russians are capable of doing, even to their own people. The author was a soldier on the frontlines who came or was thought to have come into experiencing some of the culture of their enemy at the time, so the russians sent him along with many other front line soldiers and other suspected non conformists.

---

Good Lord, he took a left hand turn to his death. He had no way of knowing that huge column of Russians were right around the corner. So sad!

Yep. Will never happen. It's purely saber rattling for the weak minded.

Taking the start of this list from BattleGrackle, I'm starting a diplomat expulsion cumulative post. I've tried to only include actual diplomats and not other staff where that information is available. I welcome corrections.

Total diplomats expelled to date as of this post: 317+

Belgium - 21 (Mar 29)
Bulgaria - 10 (Mar 18)
Czech Republic - 1 (Mar 29)
Denmark - 15 (Apr 5)
Estonia - 3 (Mar 18), 7 (Apr 5)
France - 35 (Apr 4)
Germany - 40 (Apr 4)
Italy - 30 (Apr 5)
Ireland - 4 (Mar 29)
Latvia - 3* (Mar 18), ? **(Apr 5)
Lithuania - 4* (Mar 18), ambassador also expelled (Apr 4)
Montenegro - 1 (Apr 4)
Netherlands - 17 (Mar 29)
North Macedonia - 5 (Mar 28)
Poland - 45 (Mar 23)
Slovakia - 3 (Mar 14), 35 (Mar 31)
Spain - 25 (Apr 5)
Sweden - 3 (Apr 5)
USA - 12 (Feb 28)

* In March a joint statement from Baltic states was released that 10 diplomats were being expelled, 7 between Lithuania and Latvia
** Apr 5 Latvia expelled 13 diplomats and employees, unknown how many of each.

Feel free to add/edit

MouthBQ98 said:

---

BlueTaze said:

---

How do you define "winning"?

Would Russian annexation of Eastern Ukraine and Western Ukraine joining NATO be considered winning?

I think an outcome along those lines is the best the West can hope for. We are in uncharted territory with a compromised POTUS and incompetent VP. We don't even know who is really calling the shots now. We do know Biden is thought to have worst foreign policy acumen in history and likely has largest closet of skeletons in history. That's scary. Maybe not as scary as mean tweets, but pretty scary.

---

Russia has been pretty clear about their aims: a non west aligned buffer state, if not a puppet state status for Ukraine, "independent" (puppet) states in the east of Ukraine, and holding Crimea.

If they can do that, they'll have achieved their "win", albeit at a cost that many would find reprehensible and irrational. Russia is culturally sensitive (paranoid) regarding invasion, so they want a cocoon of friendly states to nest in.

---

They want pawns

Htownag11 said:

---

javajaws said:

---

Getting back to strategy and tactics for a minute - the changes in Russian deployments marks a very significant change in Russian strategy. They (correctly, if not belatedly) realized the failure of their initial strategy - a strategy that was dooming them to certain failure given the resistance put up by Ukraine.

As soon as they get their forces repositioned I look for them to accelerate their offensive in the east (as well as the northern/southern flanks). If they can push through and/or encircle some Ukrainian forces this doesn't bode well for Ukraine. If they manage to do that they should be able to force themselves all the way to the Dneiper within a few weeks. Hopefully Ukraine can match their re-deployment and hold them back.

The next 2 weeks will be very interesting. If things continue to go badly for Russia at that point I would not be surprised to see them drop a couple nukes on Kyiv and maybe Odessa at which point I think Ukraine folds. Given Russia's war crimes that are becoming evident I think Putin probably no longer sees any downside to doing so.

---

I dont see how you nuke Kiev without drawing in the US and the "West."

---

I didn't say the odds are high, just that I wouldn't be surprised. Putin cannot afford defeat now and he will do anything he can to make sure it happens with the lowest risk. So there are 3 options as I see them:

1) He wins with conventional forces within the next month (and "win" as I define it is at least the whole of the Donbas region)

2) He is killed / overthrown

3) He uses nukes to win as a last resort.

Anything other than that is essentially Putin killing himself.

The Ukrainians can pivot faster. Mostly because it's just turning around, whereas the Russians must move around Ukraine to reposition their forces.

If they're able, I think they should divert forces or bring in reserves to attack on the southern front and try to slice off a section of the Russian troops there or make a quick counterattack across the southern front as Russia is trying to reposition to catch them off guard with a force imbalance. Back them up against the sea.

JFABNRGR said:

---

Here is the drone video of the faked murder of bicycle guy in Bucha.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/tww401/the_video_shows_the_murder_of_ukrainian_cyclist/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Any doubters really need to read Gulag Archipelago to see what the russians are capable of doing, even to their own people. The author was a soldier on the frontlines who came or was thought to have come into experiencing some of the culture of their enemy at the time, so the russians sent him along with many other front line soldiers and other suspected non conformists.

---

I just bought all 3 books to read. Thank you for the reminder.

javajaws said:

---

Getting back to strategy and tactics for a minute - the changes in Russian deployments marks a very significant change in Russian strategy. They (correctly, if not belatedly) realized the failure of their initial strategy - a strategy that was dooming them to certain failure given the resistance put up by Ukraine.

As soon as they get their forces repositioned I look for them to accelerate their offensive in the east (as well as the northern/southern flanks). If they can push through and/or encircle some Ukrainian forces this doesn't bode well for Ukraine. If they manage to do that they should be able to force themselves all the way to the Dneiper within a few weeks. Hopefully Ukraine can match their re-deployment and hold them back.

The next 2 weeks will be very interesting. If things continue to go badly for Russia at that point I would not be surprised to see them drop a couple nukes on Kyiv and maybe Odessa at which point I think Ukraine folds. Given Russia's war crimes that are becoming evident I think Putin probably no longer sees any downside to doing so.

---

what is the west's response to Russian use of WMDs?

Gilligan said:

---

JFABNRGR said:

---

Here is the drone video of the faked murder of bicycle guy in Bucha.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/tww401/the_video_shows_the_murder_of_ukrainian_cyclist/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Any doubters really need to read Gulag Archipelago to see what the russians are capable of doing, even to their own people. The author was a soldier on the frontlines who came or was thought to have come into experiencing some of the culture of their enemy at the time, so the russians sent him along with many other front line soldiers and other suspected non conformists.

---

Good Lord, he took a left hand turn to his death. He had no way of knowing that huge column of Russians were right around the corner. So sad!

---

Did they actually fire a tank at a guy on a bicycle?

shiftyandquick said:

---

javajaws said:

---

Getting back to strategy and tactics for a minute - the changes in Russian deployments marks a very significant change in Russian strategy. They (correctly, if not belatedly) realized the failure of their initial strategy - a strategy that was dooming them to certain failure given the resistance put up by Ukraine.

As soon as they get their forces repositioned I look for them to accelerate their offensive in the east (as well as the northern/southern flanks). If they can push through and/or encircle some Ukrainian forces this doesn't bode well for Ukraine. If they manage to do that they should be able to force themselves all the way to the Dneiper within a few weeks. Hopefully Ukraine can match their re-deployment and hold them back.

The next 2 weeks will be very interesting. If things continue to go badly for Russia at that point I would not be surprised to see them drop a couple nukes on Kyiv and maybe Odessa at which point I think Ukraine folds. Given Russia's war crimes that are becoming evident I think Putin probably no longer sees any downside to doing so.

---

what is the west's response to Russian use of WMDs?

---

Does it matter? Putin will not/cannot accept defeat. Putin knows the west won't get into a full out nuclear war. The whole world has pretty much (rightfully) ostracized them economically already. And given their war crimes that isn't likely to change any time soon even after the war ends.

What has the west done in response to Russian genocide? Nothing.

Maybe WMDs will push Germany to stop buying their oil - ooh that'll hurt them!

Again, I'm not saying this is likely - but I do think the chance is larger than 0%. Do not be surprised by what a desperate mad man might try to do.

I think it more likely though that they achieve some suitable end-goal with conventional forces within an acceptable timeframe. But if Ukraine stands strong and holds them back...

torrid said:

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Gilligan said:

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JFABNRGR said:

---

Here is the drone video of the faked murder of bicycle guy in Bucha.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/tww401/the_video_shows_the_murder_of_ukrainian_cyclist/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Any doubters really need to read Gulag Archipelago to see what the russians are capable of doing, even to their own people. The author was a soldier on the frontlines who came or was thought to have come into experiencing some of the culture of their enemy at the time, so the russians sent him along with many other front line soldiers and other suspected non conformists.

---

Good Lord, he took a left hand turn to his death. He had no way of knowing that huge column of Russians were right around the corner. So sad!

---

Did they actually fire a tank at a guy on a bicycle?

---

Something big was fired at him.

Quote:

---

Any doubters really need to read Gulag Archipelago to see what the russians are capable of doing, even to their own people. The author was a soldier on the frontlines who came or was thought to have come into experiencing some of the culture of their enemy at the time, so the russians sent him along with many other front line soldiers and other suspected non conformists.

---

It was too rough a read and I stopped after a few hundred pages. If I remember, Solzhenitsyn wrote a letter from the front lines during WW2 that was critical of the Army and it was read by censors. He was sent to gulags for the next several years. The seemingly endless stories he tells of how easily people were shipped off to gulags and worked to death is heartbreaking. If you were remotely thought to be not 100% in total agreement with the Party, you'd be tortured or family threatened until you "confessed" to crimes against the state.

One ranking party member was sent to the gulags because he was the first person to stop clapping when Stalin's name was brought up at a function. After several minutes of clapping, he finally sat down and took his seat while others continued on. That was all it took.

javajaws said:

---

Htownag11 said:

---

javajaws said:

---

Getting back to strategy and tactics for a minute - the changes in Russian deployments marks a very significant change in Russian strategy. They (correctly, if not belatedly) realized the failure of their initial strategy - a strategy that was dooming them to certain failure given the resistance put up by Ukraine.

As soon as they get their forces repositioned I look for them to accelerate their offensive in the east (as well as the northern/southern flanks). If they can push through and/or encircle some Ukrainian forces this doesn't bode well for Ukraine. If they manage to do that they should be able to force themselves all the way to the Dneiper within a few weeks. Hopefully Ukraine can match their re-deployment and hold them back.

The next 2 weeks will be very interesting. If things continue to go badly for Russia at that point I would not be surprised to see them drop a couple nukes on Kyiv and maybe Odessa at which point I think Ukraine folds. Given Russia's war crimes that are becoming evident I think Putin probably no longer sees any downside to doing so.

---

I dont see how you nuke Kiev without drawing in the US and the "West."

---

I didn't say the odds are high, just that I wouldn't be surprised. Putin cannot afford defeat now and he will do anything he can to make sure it happens with the lowest risk. So there are 3 options as I see them:

1) He wins with conventional forces within the next month (and "win" as I define it is at least the whole of the Donbas region)

2) He is killed / overthrown

3) He uses nukes to win as a last resort.

Anything other than that is essentially Putin killing himself.

---

#3 is also Putin killing himself. If he starts launching nukes, he's most likely gone via retaliation.

So what would happen if Ukrainian troops layed siege on a Russian town N or NE of Kharkiv, but on Russian soil. Would Putin have to divert troops and modify behavior once his people have actual skin in the Tit for Tat game

torrid said:

---

Gilligan said:

---

JFABNRGR said:

---

Here is the drone video of the faked murder of bicycle guy in Bucha.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/tww401/the_video_shows_the_murder_of_ukrainian_cyclist/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Any doubters really need to read Gulag Archipelago to see what the russians are capable of doing, even to their own people. The author was a soldier on the frontlines who came or was thought to have come into experiencing some of the culture of their enemy at the time, so the russians sent him along with many other front line soldiers and other suspected non conformists.

---

Good Lord, he took a left hand turn to his death. He had no way of knowing that huge column of Russians were right around the corner. So sad!

---

Did they actually fire a tank at a guy on a bicycle?

---

Was it a tank round or could it have been artillery/mortar? I looked for a muzzle flash but didn't see one, granted that's not conclusive one way or another.

If that was a UKR drone, it could have been spotting indirect fire on that big fat target of an armored column.

I was thinking with the way the bodies are laid out all over the place, they could have been caught in the open by artillery fire. That would make more logical sense than Russian troops machine gunning civilians marked as friendlies.

And before I get dragged as Putin fanboy or Ivan, I'd like to know the truth of the matter since this incident is being strongly pushed to garner more Western support/involvement.

Spartacus said:

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So what would happen if Ukrainian troops layed siege on a Russian town N or NE of Kharkiv, but on Russian soil. Would Putin have to divert troops and modify behavior once his people have actual skin in the Tit for Tat game

---

It's a major waste of their resources to do that.Plus, throughout history, Russia's views towards its own citizens has been shown to be uncaring, at best.

RebelE Infantry said:

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torrid said:

---

Gilligan said:

---

JFABNRGR said:

---

Here is the drone video of the faked murder of bicycle guy in Bucha.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/tww401/the_video_shows_the_murder_of_ukrainian_cyclist/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Any doubters really need to read Gulag Archipelago to see what the russians are capable of doing, even to their own people. The author was a soldier on the frontlines who came or was thought to have come into experiencing some of the culture of their enemy at the time, so the russians sent him along with many other front line soldiers and other suspected non conformists.

---

Good Lord, he took a left hand turn to his death. He had no way of knowing that huge column of Russians were right around the corner. So sad!

---

Did they actually fire a tank at a guy on a bicycle?

---

Was it a tank round or could it have been artillery/mortar? I looked for a muzzle flash but didn't see one, granted that's not conclusive one way or another.

If that was a UKR drone, it could have been spotting indirect fire on that big fat target of an armored column.

I was thinking with the way the bodies are laid out all over the place, they could have been caught in the open by artillery fire. That would make more logical sense than Russian troops machine gunning civilians marked as friendlies.

And before I get dragged as Putin fanboy or Ivan, I'd like to know the truth of the matter since this incident is being strongly pushed to garner more Western support/involvement.

---

I thought I saw the lead tracked vehicle firing not long after the guy rounded the corner.

torrid said:

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Gilligan said:

---

JFABNRGR said:

---

Here is the drone video of the faked murder of bicycle guy in Bucha.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/tww401/the_video_shows_the_murder_of_ukrainian_cyclist/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Any doubters really need to read Gulag Archipelago to see what the russians are capable of doing, even to their own people. The author was a soldier on the frontlines who came or was thought to have come into experiencing some of the culture of their enemy at the time, so the russians sent him along with many other front line soldiers and other suspected non conformists.

---

Good Lord, he took a left hand turn to his death. He had no way of knowing that huge column of Russians were right around the corner. So sad!

---

Did they actually fire a tank at a guy on a bicycle?

---

I believe it was a BMD with a 73MM cannon. There were already russian armor pieces on the same road the video started on but further down from where he made a left turn.

The armor is already firing down the street before the bicycle makes the left turn and if we cross referenced with other pictures of the murdered we would likely find more attributed to this one piece of armor.

Hopefully somebody can ID this BMD with one later demolished by UKR.