⚡️Russian troops are preparing to surround Kharkiv. -Motuzyan (Ministry of Defense of Ukraine)⚡️

— spook (@spook_info) April 4, 2022

I'm torn, I like the message this sends, but with no dialogue, seems that things tend to get worse.

Are they though?

SITREP

I don't think Ukraine has leverage to force Russia back to pre invasion lines at the table yet.

They now have difficult tasks of 1)clean up/rebuild in North, 2) maintaining a standing presence to stall/deter a second attempt, 3) redeploying Northern forces - where?

My guess is they use them in attempt to break siege of Karkiv - which would be riskier than committing to retaking Kherson and pushing Russians off West Bank of Dneiper. Hopefully air defense is able to protect large force movement whichever they decide.

Ukraine to receive T-72 tanks from NATO. SOON

(SIAP)

aggiehawg said:

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From a tactical standpoint, Putin went into Ukraine with a total war order to inflict as much damage and carnage upon the Ukrainian people as possible. He believed he would get away with it by shutting down power and negating internet accessibility.

But Elon Musk immediately sent over his Star Links to restore internet access to many places in Ukraine. And the world has watched things unfold on the ground because of that one move.

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did not know that, and that is really fascinating.

when it comes here, i hope someone is willing to help

DPR Deputy Minister of Information Bezsonov says that the remnants of the Ukrainian 501st Marine Battalion have surrendered in Mariupol, Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma's Defense committee Dmitry Sablin also reports this.

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) April 4, 2022

Unconfirmed of course, but if it proves correct this would have a big impact on the tactical situation in Mariupol. Last report I saw said that the Ukrainian forces still controlled the port, the Azovmash plant, and the Azovstal steel plant. This would probably mean that one of those 3 is now in Russian/DPR hands.

RebelE Infantry said:

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DPR Deputy Minister of Information Bezsonov says that the remnants of the Ukrainian 501st Marine Battalion have surrendered in Mariupol, Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma's Defense committee Dmitry Sablin also reports this.

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) April 4, 2022

Unconfirmed of course, but if it proves correct this would have a big impact on the tactical situation in Mariupol. Last report I saw said that the Ukrainian forces still controlled the port, the Azovmash plant, and the Azovstal steel plant. This would probably mean that one of those 3 is now in Russian/DPR hands.

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From what I have seen, and has been stated Mariupol is Ukraine's Alamo. It will fall

No way to resupply, reinforce or escape.

Bucha looks like Goliad only the Russians slathered the town instead of the soldiers

Fightin_Aggie said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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DPR Deputy Minister of Information Bezsonov says that the remnants of the Ukrainian 501st Marine Battalion have surrendered in Mariupol, Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma's Defense committee Dmitry Sablin also reports this.

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) April 4, 2022

Unconfirmed of course, but if it proves correct this would have a big impact on the tactical situation in Mariupol. Last report I saw said that the Ukrainian forces still controlled the port, the Azovmash plant, and the Azovstal steel plant. This would probably mean that one of those 3 is now in Russian/DPR hands.

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From what I have seen, and has been stated Mariupol is Ukraine's Alamo. It will fall

No way to resupply, reinforce or escape.

Bucha looks like Goliad only the Russians slathered the town instead of the soldiers

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Right, this hasn't been in question for quite some time. The biggest impact this news (if correct of course) will have is one the timeline of events. The quicker these pockets of resistance are cleared, the sooner those forces are available to be redeployed elsewhere along the front.

Ukraine has captured over 1000 Russian vehicles, so far. RELOADING

Fightin_Aggie said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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DPR Deputy Minister of Information Bezsonov says that the remnants of the Ukrainian 501st Marine Battalion have surrendered in Mariupol, Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma's Defense committee Dmitry Sablin also reports this.

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) April 4, 2022

Unconfirmed of course, but if it proves correct this would have a big impact on the tactical situation in Mariupol. Last report I saw said that the Ukrainian forces still controlled the port, the Azovmash plant, and the Azovstal steel plant. This would probably mean that one of those 3 is now in Russian/DPR hands.

---

From what I have seen, and has been stated Mariupol is Ukraine's Alamo. It will fall

No way to resupply, reinforce or escape.

Bucha looks like Goliad only the Russians slathered the town instead of the soldiers

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I had a dream that a US aircraft carrier parked next to Mariopol used 2,000 drones carrying supplies to resupply the city. Can this happen?

3rd and 2 said:

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Fightin_Aggie said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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DPR Deputy Minister of Information Bezsonov says that the remnants of the Ukrainian 501st Marine Battalion have surrendered in Mariupol, Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma's Defense committee Dmitry Sablin also reports this.

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) April 4, 2022

Unconfirmed of course, but if it proves correct this would have a big impact on the tactical situation in Mariupol. Last report I saw said that the Ukrainian forces still controlled the port, the Azovmash plant, and the Azovstal steel plant. This would probably mean that one of those 3 is now in Russian/DPR hands.

---

From what I have seen, and has been stated Mariupol is Ukraine's Alamo. It will fall

No way to resupply, reinforce or escape.

Bucha looks like Goliad only the Russians slathered the town instead of the soldiers

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I had a dream that a US aircraft carrier parked next to Mariopol used 2,000 drones carrying supplies to resupply the city. Can this happen?

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Easier is just a Berlin Airlift sortie of Poland or Turkey. Logistics is easy, the engagement tightrope is where things get fun.

Waffledynamics said:

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I'm a little skeptical that the troops in Mariupol are surrendering, and I base that on little to no upside for them to do so. They're doomed, and they know they're doomed. Unless they're allowed to leave and retreat (doubtful), those surrendered men are in for a hell on earth even worse than they've already been dealing with.

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You're probably right in the case of Azov and other "nationalist battalions" but it may be a different story for UKR regulars.

74OA said:

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Ukraine has captured over 1000 Russian vehicles, so far. RELOADING

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this includes almost 200 MBTs. If we assumed only 30% fully operational that is still 60 MBTs available to UKR.

3 crew per tank. UKR has lost 93 of which 11 were damaged or abandoned and assuming those crew are still available versus the rest are not.

I have to think training personnel is a big hurdle right now and given this I don't understand the supply of tanks by NATO to UKR when the russians have given them fully armed up but possibly low on fuel.

Or has a bunch of UKR soldiers been training on these units the last month or two in neighboring countries?

JFABNRGR said:

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74OA said:

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Ukraine has captured over 1000 Russian vehicles, so far. RELOADING

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this includes almost 200 MBTs. If we assumed only 30% fully operational that is still 60 MBTs available to UKR.

3 crew per tank. UKR has lost 93 of which 11 were damaged or abandoned and assuming those crew are still available versus the rest are not.

I have to think training personnel is a big hurdle right now and given this I don't understand the supply of tanks by NATO to UKR when the russians have given them fully armed up but possibly low on fuel.

Or has a bunch of UKR soldiers been training on these units the last month or two in neighboring countries?

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There are probably plenty of reserve forces or recent veterans in the Ukrainian volunteer forces with the necessary skills and training to operate them.

JFABNRGR said:

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74OA said:

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Ukraine has captured over 1000 Russian vehicles, so far. RELOADING

---

this includes almost 200 MBTs. If we assumed only 30% fully operational that is still 60 MBTs available to UKR.

3 crew per tank. UKR has lost 93 of which 11 were damaged or abandoned and assuming those crew are still available versus the rest are not.

I have to think training personnel is a big hurdle right now and given this I don't understand the supply of tanks by NATO to UKR when the russians have given them fully armed up but possibly low on fuel.

Or has a bunch of UKR soldiers been training on these units the last month or two in neighboring countries?

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The idea is that Ukraine is already intimately familiar with operating and maintaining the T-72 and the additional tanks will be useful to strip for spare parts, if nothing else.

But the longer this fight goes on the more important it will be to have sufficient attrition reserves, particularly if Ukraine shifts to the offensive in the southeast as that will jack up its loss rate.

Let's hope not

Pretty vague, but it looks like they're expecting something big to happen soon.

Ukraine says Russian troops preparing a big attack in the east: AFP

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) April 4, 2022

Tomorrow there will be a meeting of the #UN Security Council on the war crimes in #Bucha. https://t.co/cshyWjD5z2

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) April 4, 2022