Kyiv and Konotop area detail pic.twitter.com/eFXFB4rjTy

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 4, 2022

Eliminatus said:

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Rossticus said:

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2/ at this point Ukraine is clearly shifting from defensive operations to offensive, now that the majority of the North is clear we can expect more pushes to the east. Russia is highly susceptible to counter attacks in multiple areas in the east due to the lack of a FLOT.

— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) April 3, 2022

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From what I gather, and how Russia has been summarily terrible at strategy, this is probably correct. The Ukes could probably use stormtrooper tactics and roll up a lot of Russians. I just don't see the Russians have the presence of professional war fighting to have an established and planned FLOT (Forward Line of Own Troops, or established front line for those may not know) ready to receive the Ukes.

Do the Ukes throw the dice and charge in? I can't make the call of course but I would do it, based off the little I do know. Russia is not doing well. If the Ukes can punch a breakthrough and exploit it it can snowball out of control for Russia. That has to be worth a try, no?

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I've got no applicable experience but I'm fairly well read and agree that now is the time for a counter attack.

(Pull up a map.)

If the Russians dig-in in the east, and the Ukes can't break through do the Ukes have the ability to seize any Russian territory in order to flank the Russians or even maneuver to their rear? It's all farm land as far as the eye can see so other than a million bayous and small rivers, the unguarded Russian terrain would permit a fairly rapid advance. Similar to the Germans side-stepping the Maginot line.

Or rather than trying to free Donetsk, would you go for the jugular and try to reach Sevastopol?

If the Ukes have ~400k regulars and nearly a million irregulars, it seems that all that stands between them and Sevastopol are some knocked out bridges across the Dnieper River and the likely artillery covering the M17/E97 highway into Crimea.

With only 3 narrow passages into and out of Crimea, things could get pretty crowded and panic could set in amongst the Russian troops if the Ukes can employ some artillery or air power. Dreaming now but if the CBU-105 could be fitted to old Soviet aircraft….

There are also several nice aqueducts north of Crimea that that would make for fairly defensible lines to keep the Russians from redeploying and flanking a southern Uke push. It's a shame NATO hasn't delivered any armor or aircraft to Ukraine. Now would be the time to employ it.

For entertainment purposes only.

Russia has requested a UN Security Council meeting on Monday in connection with what they call "the outrageous provocation of Ukrainian radicals in Bucha"

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) April 3, 2022

⚡️Donetsk Oblast governor urges residents to leave amid threats of military escalation.

Pavlo Kyrylenko said that the authorities “strongly recommend” residents to leave Donetsk Oblast, explaining that all the necessary transport and instructions will be provided.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 3, 2022

UA SOF/FOG thermals go brrr pic.twitter.com/9miSftIlL0

— Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ (@CalibreObscura) April 4, 2022

Losing this port is a hindrance to the Russian effort around Mariupol and the east. pic.twitter.com/vhYMZ0Md14

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 3, 2022

javajaws said:

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IMO if you can't get Russia removed from the UN security council then every NATO country needs to remove themselves from the UN immediately. The UN is a joke and serves no purpose as is.

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It may seem that wat but they are very good at food distribution for famished nations and health care. Diplomacy? Not so much.

Eliminatus said:

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Rossticus said:

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2/ at this point Ukraine is clearly shifting from defensive operations to offensive, now that the majority of the North is clear we can expect more pushes to the east. Russia is highly susceptible to counter attacks in multiple areas in the east due to the lack of a FLOT.

— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) April 3, 2022

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From what I gather, and how Russia has been summarily terrible at strategy, this is probably correct. The Ukes could probably use stormtrooper tactics and roll up a lot of Russians. I just don't see the Russians have the presence of professional war fighting to have an established and planned FLOT (Forward Line of Own Troops, or established front line for those may not know) ready to receive the Ukes.

Do the Ukes throw the dice and charge in? I can't make the call of course but I would do it, based off the little I do know. Russia is not doing well. If the Ukes can punch a breakthrough and exploit it it can snowball out of control for Russia. That has to be worth a try, no?

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Would the troops in the Donbas not have more experience? If the conflict has been ongoing for 8 years there, I would expect them to be a bit more prepared than the rando scrubs sent in through Belarus.

Waffledynamics said:

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Eliminatus said:

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Rossticus said:

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2/ at this point Ukraine is clearly shifting from defensive operations to offensive, now that the majority of the North is clear we can expect more pushes to the east. Russia is highly susceptible to counter attacks in multiple areas in the east due to the lack of a FLOT.

— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) April 3, 2022

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From what I gather, and how Russia has been summarily terrible at strategy, this is probably correct. The Ukes could probably use stormtrooper tactics and roll up a lot of Russians. I just don't see the Russians have the presence of professional war fighting to have an established and planned FLOT (Forward Line of Own Troops, or established front line for those may not know) ready to receive the Ukes.

Do the Ukes throw the dice and charge in? I can't make the call of course but I would do it, based off the little I do know. Russia is not doing well. If the Ukes can punch a breakthrough and exploit it it can snowball out of control for Russia. That has to be worth a try, no?

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Would the troops in the Donbas not have more experience? If the conflict has been ongoing for 8 years there, I would expect them to be a bit more prepared than the rando scrubs sent in through Belarus.

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From the looks of troop deaths and hardware losses, the elite Russian troops were sent to Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Kherson-> Odessa. The separatist armies have fought in Donbas, but it hasn't appeared that a lot of the elite Russian equipment or soldiers were in Donbas. It wasn't until they were stuck Northwest of Kiev that it appeared that some of the elite SOF and Chechen forces were transitioned to Mariupol.

Here's an article on Bucha from Spain for anyone who'd like a non-American take. As one would expect, it's graphic. As one would expect, it IS in Spanish.

https://www.revista5w.com/temas/conflictos/los-cadaveres-de-la-retirada-rusa-53946

Pretty good non-political summary of dynamics at play

Lol they don't even live here.

You'll need to translate it but it's an excellent read re: Bucha. Graphic. Here's the first paragraph as a primer:

"After the retreat of Russian troops from Buchi, photos of mass graves and executed civilians appeared online. According to the Ukrainian authorities, at least 280 people have been killed here over the past month. The satellite city of Kiev itself is almost completely destroyed. "That's it" talked to a local resident Vladislav Kozlovsky, who was an eyewitness to the executions of local residents and lived in the occupied city for a month."

https://vot-tak.tv/novosti/03-04-2022-rasstrely-zhitelej-buchi/

EDIT: Happy to email or PM a translation to anyone who isn't able to do it. Pretty sure staff doesn't want me to clutter the board by posting a full translation.

Heavy losses to take Crimea and not a given you'd be successful given the solid logistical support that Russia can maintain as well as ease of Russian naval and air support. You don't want to focus on Crimea until you've wrapped up the rest of the country and secured it from the east.

Seal off Crimea and make it as much of a non-factor as possible while you drive Russia out of as much of the rest of the country as you can (before they can refit, redeploy, and really dig in). Time is a critical element.

My opinion at least. There are guys who know a ton more than me on this and may see things that I'm not.

For Twitter users, here are a couple of accounts that are Russian aligned that would be worth following if you're interested in a robust view of all sides.

I neither endorse nor agree with them as it pertains to most things but I also feel that's it's critical to have full awareness of competing viewpoints and the information that they're basing their opinions on.

@GeromanAT
@Tom_Fowdy

Rossticus said:

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Heavy losses to take Crimea and not a given you'd be successful given the solid logistical support that Russia can maintain as well as ease of Russian naval and air support. You don't want to focus on Crimea until you've wrapped up the rest of the country and secured it from the east.

Seal off Crimea and make it as much of a non-factor as possible while you drive Russia out of as much of the rest of the country as you can (before they can refit, redeploy, and really dig in). Time is a critical element.

My opinion at least. There are guys who know a ton more than me on this and may see things that I'm not.

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Is retaking Crimea a realistic Ukrainian goal? Is there anyone left in Crimea who want to be a part of Ukraine, or has Russia completely resettled it? Is it worth it?

My unit, as part of civil defense, had faced the enemy in the city of X (I won’t disclose the particulars for obvious reasons).

We were able to fight off the first attack, the second one put more pressure on us, they had a lot of heavy equipment. 2/

— Dmytro Gurin, Ukrainian MP (@DmytroGurinMP) April 3, 2022

Thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1510681931217784834.html

Judging by what we see on Russian TV, first commentaries from "talking heads" and what seems to be working the most with "average Russians" - the official narrative will be:
Ukrainians did it/faked it in order to provoke/on the order of West so more #sanctions can be introduced

— Anton Barbashin (@ABarbashin) April 4, 2022

Or
"Please let's not talk about this. I don't even want to look at that"
Or
"Yes, I've seen it. I can't not see it anymore"
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For people 35-45 trust in TV is down but (!) they've started receiving more propaganda content via WhatsApp from people they know

— Anton Barbashin (@ABarbashin) April 4, 2022

Here's a perfect example of how misinfo is seeded for the sake of disinfo/sow doubt in events.

I previously posted a link to a pic of a woman with a swastika burned into her. It turns out that this pic appears to have originated in Mariupol a week ago.

The source is a guy known to disseminate photos originating from Russian sources as well as to photograph events later debunked as staged. This photo was then recirculated amidst the release of many of the other photos from Bucha, originating again from this source, and then pointed to as evidence of Bucha events being faked or misrepresented.

It's all completely convoluted and confusing but it is a common means of sowing distrust and disbelief. Always have to be on your guard but also be aware that it's an intentional tactic meant to lead to your disillusionment toward all information regarding certain events. Glad this one got caught and that there was still a trail to the original. The guy below does good work and will provide you the original source if you reach out (if you're so inclined as the pic is to graphic to post in the thread).

Seeing images being posted of a dead woman with a swastika burned/scratched into her body.

As far as I can tell this was first posted on 27th March 2022 from a location in Mariupol, by Patrick Lancaster, who I would characterise as an extremely unreliable source.

— Nick Waters (@N_Waters89) April 3, 2022

The #Ukraine intelligence reports about confirmed death of the first Russian Army soldier from Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS) and 73 more soldiers in a severe condition suffering from this illness. They were camping in the Red Forest near Chernobyl nuclear power plant.

— Victor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko) April 4, 2022

CowPieAndFries said:

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javajaws said:

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IMO if you can't get Russia removed from the UN security council then every NATO country needs to remove themselves from the UN immediately. The UN is a joke and serves no purpose as is.

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It may seem that wat but they are very good at food distribution for famished nations and health care. Diplomacy? Not so much.

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Well that's certainty positive spin. Until the past month, UN peacekeepers were the undisputed world champions of raping refugees.

The Ukes have switched from begging for anti-tank and stinger missiles to now wanting main battle tanks and APCs. Hopefully this signals their intent to move from a defensive strategy to an offensive. I imagine they need the armor if they want to make a push into and hold areas in the East and the South where the Russians and separatists have been entrenched for some time.

Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia in the next 2-3 days will start process of complete isolation from Russia and Belarus, thus closing their land routes for the delivery of goods to these countries

This was stated by Deputy Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Mustafa Nayem. pic.twitter.com/yIQCBcA3rM

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) April 4, 2022

Local traffic to Kaliningrad through Lithuania will probably have to be excepted because there are some major treaties and agreements with the EU there. In my opinion, it would be seen as a major provocation, could end up with Russia invading and trying to take over that corridor, and then you have Russia invading a NATO state.

Consequences of heavy clashes on the #Zhytomyr highway near #Kyiv. pic.twitter.com/kwvGOqLTOb

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) April 4, 2022

MeatDr said:

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Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia in the next 2-3 days will start process of complete isolation from Russia and Belarus, thus closing their land routes for the delivery of goods to these countries

This was stated by Deputy Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Mustafa Nayem. pic.twitter.com/yIQCBcA3rM

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) April 4, 2022

Local traffic to Kaliningrad through Lithuania will probably have to be excepted because there are some major treaties and agreements with the EU there. In my opinion, it would be seen as a major provocation, could end up with Russia invading and trying to take over that corridor, and then you have Russia invading a NATO state.

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Good luck with that. Quickest route via Belarus requires going through Lithuania and/or Poland. If the last month has proven anything, its that Russia would not succeed in that and would most likely lose in a conventional war with Poland. If they went in just Lithuania, there is zero chance that Poland doesn't get involved. FAFO

I'm going to say no, but I think they're also trying maintain justification for what will inevitably be an economic and military ****show. At some point, sanctions will start cutting deeply, and at some point Russia will have to come to terms with a **** ton of guys not being home. They have to make this as popular as they can while they can to ride it for as long as they can.