***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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MeatDr
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First video might be fake Russian propaganda? If it's real, they captured a ton of Ukrainians. But compare the demeanor to the Russian POW vid just below it and others we've seen. Their heads are still held high and they don't seem utterly exhausted and/or ashamed like the Russian soldiers usually do. Some of the comments have pointed out that none of them have tape on their arms, also.
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wildmen09
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techno-ag said:

Saw military trucks on 6 today in BCS, presumably from Ft. Hood headed to port. Probably means little but I haven't seen that since the last Gulf War.


Could be any number of things but probably not that. We would like haul them there most likely and I'm not tracking anything like that.
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ABATTBQ11
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Yeah... You don't flood a ship to put out a fire, and those fuel tanks look fine. That thing is going nowhere.

I could see them spending moe to fix it than replace or just to support the propaganda, though.
MeatDr
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lb3
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MeatDr said:


Radars aren't front line systems.

Either the Russians are abandoning high value but inoperable vehicles or they are being overrun. The average Russian soldier's psyche is probably pretty fragile at this point and I could see panic start to set in. I'm not suggesting the Ukrainians are about to rout the invaders, but hopefully the Ukes have contingency plans and are prepared for mass surrenders and don't get over extended themselves.
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I Like Mike
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Throughout all of this I am in awe of the absolute decline of the Russian Bear. For decades, war planners had one nightmare scenario: Guards Armies storming through the Fulda Gap followed by massive artillery barrages. Where are the vaunted Shock armies now? Where is the historical aggression that was once so feared?

This entire war is mind boggling in it's turtle paced efforts by Russian forces.
Dorm 15
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MeatDr said:


I've thought about this. Even if Russia were to withdraw, what could prevent them from launching missiles into Ukraine from Russia?
rgag12
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MeatDr said:

First video might be fake Russian propaganda? If it's real, they captured a ton of Ukrainians. But compare the demeanor to the Russian POW vid just below it and others we've seen. Their heads are still held high and they don't seem utterly exhausted and/or ashamed like the Russian soldiers usually do. Some of the comments have pointed out that none of them have tape on their arms, also.



I know it's hard to believe, but Ukrainian soldiers are being captured, wounded, and killed in this war.

It's probably real AND intended to be propaganda, just like all the Ukrainian stuff posted here is.
HTownAg98
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MarkoRamius said:

Throughout all of this I am in awe of the absolute decline of the Russian Bear. For decades, war planners had one nightmare scenario: Guards Armies storming through the Fulda Gap followed by massive artillery barrages. Where are the vaunted Shock armies now? Where is the historical aggression that was once so feared?

This entire war is mind boggling in it's turtle paced efforts by Russian forces.

The money that should have been going to their military was funneled into a small handful of people.
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lb3 said:

MeatDr said:


Radars aren't front line systems.

Either the Russians are abandoning high value but inoperable vehicles or they are being overrun. The average Russian soldier's psyche is probably pretty fragile at this point and I could see panic start to set in. I'm not suggesting the Ukrainians are about to rout the invaders, but hopefully the Ukes have contingency plans and are prepared for mass surrenders and don't get over extended themselves.


If it's a rout, I think the Ukes will hold mass executions. They will be out for blood.
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HTownAg98
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PearlJammin said:

lb3 said:

MeatDr said:


Radars aren't front line systems.

Either the Russians are abandoning high value but inoperable vehicles or they are being overrun. The average Russian soldier's psyche is probably pretty fragile at this point and I could see panic start to set in. I'm not suggesting the Ukrainians are about to rout the invaders, but hopefully the Ukes have contingency plans and are prepared for mass surrenders and don't get over extended themselves.


If it's a rout, I think the Ukes will hold mass executions. They will be out for blood.

I would hope they don't. They have all of the free world, less a few bass ackwards countries, on their side right now. Committing their own war crimes would make it very easy for the military aid they've been receiving to come to a halt.
DapperDanMan
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I don't know the effective range of Patriot systems, but could they intercept cruise missiles, fired at Lviv for example, from across the Polish border? They would be acting in a defensive capacity against unmanned targets. Not saying it should happen, but rather could it happen?
Slava Ukraini!
Bird Poo
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War crimes? The world is just standing around watching Putin do anything he wants. I don't think the Ukraine will GAF about war crimes. My fear is that Ukraine will be determined to flip the bird to the same people that watched them burn (the West) without getting heavily involved. Besides, what gives the west the right to judge the Ukraine on war crimes when we didn't do a whole lot to stop the crimes committed on the Uke citizenry?

I'm not advocating anything here. I jus think the level of anger will boil over if the Ukes pull this off. The surrounding countries will certainly look the other way.
ttu_85
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PearlJammin said:

lb3 said:

MeatDr said:


Radars aren't front line systems.

Either the Russians are abandoning high value but inoperable vehicles or they are being overrun. The average Russian soldier's psyche is probably pretty fragile at this point and I could see panic start to set in. I'm not suggesting the Ukrainians are about to rout the invaders, but hopefully the Ukes have contingency plans and are prepared for mass surrenders and don't get over extended themselves.


If it's a rout, I think the Ukes will hold mass executions. They will be out for blood.
And that would be a stupid move. Kill a bunch of under 20y/o kids that dont even know why they are there.
Reprisals begets reprisals.

Now those that ordered MRLS and Artillery attacks on urban civilian areas can be peeled alive, after a guilty verdict, for all I care. But mass execution that is a dumb as hell and an unethical move with ZERO upside for Ukraine. Nothing but a blood soaked escalation.
Get Off My Lawn
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HTownAg98 said:

PearlJammin said:

lb3 said:

MeatDr said:


Radars aren't front line systems.

Either the Russians are abandoning high value but inoperable vehicles or they are being overrun. The average Russian soldier's psyche is probably pretty fragile at this point and I could see panic start to set in. I'm not suggesting the Ukrainians are about to rout the invaders, but hopefully the Ukes have contingency plans and are prepared for mass surrenders and don't get over extended themselves.


If it's a rout, I think the Ukes will hold mass executions. They will be out for blood.

I would hope they don't. They have all of the free world, less a few bass ackwards countries, on their side right now. Committing their own war crimes would make it very easy for the military aid they've been receiving to come to a halt.
This is insanity. Ukraine has managed the nearly unthinkable in defanging and demoralizing the Russian military... and there are folks reveling in the idea of threatening the rank and file with execution!?! Instantaneously swapping out a dejected adversary backed by a divided country for a desperate enemy willing to fight to the death backed by a 100% unified and pissed off country. Brilliant. The love children of Sun Tzu and Clausewitz - to be sure.
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rgag12 said:

MeatDr said:

First video might be fake Russian propaganda? If it's real, they captured a ton of Ukrainians. But compare the demeanor to the Russian POW vid just below it and others we've seen. Their heads are still held high and they don't seem utterly exhausted and/or ashamed like the Russian soldiers usually do. Some of the comments have pointed out that none of them have tape on their arms, also.



I know it's hard to believe, but Ukrainian soldiers are being captured, wounded, and killed in this war.

It's probably real AND intended to be propaganda, just like all the Ukrainian stuff posted here is.


Oh no doubt Ukrainians are being lost and captured. My biggest point was that if this particular video is real it shows a lot about the morale of Ukrainian troops versus Russian just in the way they are conducting themselves as POWs.
Bird Poo
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I agree. I just think the Ukraine won't give a damn. I'm not optimistic that they share our values in this situation.
ttu_85
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PearlJammin said:

I agree. I just think the Ukraine won't give a damn. I'm not optimistic that they share our values in this situation.
Ok. I was surprised at that post. I see your point and you are right. Ukraine would make a huge mistake. I know they are pissed and hurting. If someone shelled a city and killed my loved ones I'd feel the same. They must remember, that 20 year old Russian kid most likely just wants to go home.

The officers now, that is another matter hunt them down like Israel hunted nazi's They must face justice.
ABATTBQ11
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Those 20 year old kids are the ones going door to door and killing people.
Rossticus
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Thread. Russia doubling down. Again. Think that they can outlast this isht storm and that nobody will stop them.







Rossticus
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74OA
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We're going to hear a lot more about Russia's potential war crimes in Ukraine.

Here's a nice primer on the Law of War to understand the legal references.

CRIMINAL?
Keegan99
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Russia would need a mass of troops adjacent to the Baltics before even thinking about an invasion.

They don't have the personnel or materiel in place.
PJYoung
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BonsaiGreen said:

pagerman @ work said:

Rossticus said:

I hate that they keep calling it "Peace Keeping". There is no peace to keep. That just sounds less risky. It's "Peace Making" if anyone goes in and does anything other than humanitarian aid delivery.



I don't think it matters how many NATO members support the idea, it only matters what Putin thinks. And I can't imagine a scenario where he would be cool with the introduction of NATO troops into Ukraine. The fear of that very scenario is what drove him to this invasion in the first place.


Fear of NATO expansion may have played a big role in the invasion.

But Putin's motivation has be primarily restoration of the Soviet Union. He's been talking about this for years, and he's been very explicit, and just a few years before he took Crimea, he called the fall of the Soviet Union the greatest tragedy of the 21th century and he longed for it to be restored. He's been blaming NATO more lately because that offers Putin some level of logic behind being proactive militarily.

NATO expansion was, I'm sure, a driver to invade, but only because it would have made restoring the USSR much more difficult.

Just my two cents


He started talking about it in public speeches way back in 2007. Called the Cold War good for the world because Moscow could balance out Washington DC. Said the unipolar world created chaos and bloody wars in Iraq and Afghanistan etc.

I've posted before but she gives great background on his mindset.



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