From March 18th, Congressman Gallagher's questioning of Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (Policy) Sasha Baker...
Is integrated deterrence a success if the invaded nation is ravaged?Put simply, the White House believes its sanctions-based approach has worked.
Gallagher noted a key way the Russians could get around it...
Quote:
Rep. Gallagher: So that's a yes, to punish their behavior. And by punishing Russian behavior, we are creating dilemmas, as you put it, or at least costs for the Russians, cost impositions.
Sasha Baker: Yes, Congressman.
Rep. Gallagher: So under the same logic, if another actor, say China, provided the Russian government with funding to help them evade sanctions, that would create an advantage for Russia, in the sense that it would mitigate some of the costs we impose via sanctions, right?
Sasha Baker: Congressman, yes, and we're having a conversation with China about our concerns in that regard.
Later on, Congressman Gallagher drives another point home...
Quote:
Rep. Gallagher: Okay. Are you rethinking any of the assumptions underlying the NDS as a result of Ukraine? Or do you see it as a validation of integrated deterrence?
Sasha Baker: Congressman, we believe that the strategy, in fact, took into consideration some of the behavior that we've now seen Russia exhibit, and that it's resilient to what we're seeing from the Russians at this time.
Rep. Gallagher: So do you believe integrated deterrence succeeded in the case of Russia, Ukraine?
Sasha Baker: I think what you're seeing right now is integrated deterrence in action, bringing together the sanctions, the allies and partners.
Rep. Gallagher: What you're effectively saying is your entire theory of deterrence requires a country get invaded and pillaged in order to galvanize the West into action, and I just don't want to put our eggs in that basket. I'm out of time.
We knew Russia's intentions with regard to Ukraine months ago. We chose sanctions as a deterrence against those actions instead of providing Ukraine what it needed in terms of weapons and training. The concept of integrated deterrence clearly failed to stop Russia in this case. All the sanctions in the world aren't going to stop the Russians when they can (and have) called on the Chinese and Iranians to give them a lifeline. These sanctions aren't going to do a thing for Ukraine when the shooting stops and they look around their nation and see the "benefits" of such integrated deterrence measures.
