Your lips to God's ears.

The recruits of Ukraine Foreign Legion has been a mixed bag – with a swarm of Fantasists for every one candidate with combat experience. https://t.co/Xf1nihuJoc

— Task & Purpose (@TaskandPurpose) March 19, 2022

The more I look at the overall situation the more convinced I am that going forward Russia will attempt to peel off the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. I don't see any realistic way for them to make significant gains around Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa without at least a very large partial mobilization. Around 500,000 to a million troops.

Mariupol will last at least the rest of this month but it will fall eventually to lack of water and food. After that they will pivot and focus on the city of Zaporizhzhia and moving to create pockets of troops that they can cut off and surround and then force retreats back towards the Dnieper to try and secure as much of the the Donetsk and Luhansk as they can. Then they'll threaten to use nuclear weapons to force a peace. They will need to defend Kherson as it looks like the Ukrainians are clearly pushing that way.

Not worth much but that is what I would look for. The complete failure to quickly secure Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv has basically eliminated the possibility of a complete Russian victory.

If the Russians can secure the transport and supply lines on the coast then they can turn and make things very difficult but without some mobilization... There is just no way for them to get anywhere close to those objectives based on vehicle losses.

Wonder if we end up with some kind of stalemate that results in a DMZ type situation?

They have water for now...boiling/melting snow for water.

TRM said:

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They have water for now...boiling/melting snow for water.

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I understand but it's still hard to do for several hundred thousand people under shelling.

#Russia #Ukraine 🇷🇺🇺🇦: Combatants from #Georgia (members of #Ukrainian TDF) have displayed some interesting weapons.

The group apparently owns a quite noteable CZ 806 BREN-2 assault rifle (from #CzechRepublic 🇨🇿) and a Beretta MG 42/59 Machine gun (from #Italy 🇮🇹). pic.twitter.com/6Rdyoc8ZBN

— War Noir (@war_noir) March 18, 2022

If Russia manages to secure Mariupol and eventually lock down Odessa then you can bet that Moldova is going to start getting antsy.

High res images of the Ukrainian strike on Russian occupied Kherson airport #Ukraine #UkraineRussianWar #Russian pic.twitter.com/im9SmfPhUK

— Ukraine War Videos (@Ukraine_WarVids) March 19, 2022

I think them and Bosnia are already very antsy.

ATX_AG_08 said:

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High res images of the Ukrainian strike on Russian occupied Kherson airport #Ukraine #UkraineRussianWar #Russian pic.twitter.com/im9SmfPhUK

— Ukraine War Videos (@Ukraine_WarVids) March 19, 2022

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BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE! Is this the 8th Army strike?

wildmen09 said:

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I think them and Bosnia are already very antsy.

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Don't forget Georgia. They're on the hot seat too. Probably not now but within the next 5-10 years if Russia isn't crippled.

Reported as being, but I take everything with a grain of salt.

Follow up on that air strike earlier today.

#BREAKING: At least 80 dead in Russian strike on Ukrainian military position near Mykolaiv https://t.co/sYlos9RJBy

— ELINT News (@ELINTNews) March 19, 2022

March 18: Ukraine's anti-aircraft missile forces and fighter jets hit 12 enemy air targets - 2 planes, 3 helicopters, 3 UAVs and 4 cruise missiles.

– General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, operational information as of 06:00 on 19 March 2022 regarding the Russian invasion

— Michael MacKay (@mhmck) March 19, 2022

When this footage was shot, the Bayraktar TB2 was flying at a distance of nearly 50km(!)

Meanwhile the cameras used on Russian drones aren’t even good enough for us to ID the target they’re hitting. https://t.co/MKexuSvUcD

— Oryx (@oryxspioenkop) March 18, 2022

Quote:

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And we will just sit here and watch literal atrocities happen every single day, because we have a nuclear gun to our head. Pointed by a single megalomaniac who can do just about anything he wants as far as I can tell.

I get it, we can't do anything, it still sucks and is probably one of the more frustrating times I have lived through.

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Yes, essentially...No good way to wind down a nuclear armed dictator. West/US has no good options...All options are dangerous and losing hand.

This Putin play book is a much larger version of N Korea for past 70 plus years except nuclear card added to their repertoire past 20 plus years.

All the might of US with SKorea and Japan can't cracked that riddle/nut that is N Korea. We will not be able to do any better with vastly larger version that is Putin and Russia.

All we the US/west can do is support Ukraine and fight the proxy war.

Only real solution remains at the hands of Russians themselves...

Not good if confirmed.

Russia says using hypersonic weapons in western Ukraine https://t.co/PSkslpBgv1 via @AFP

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) March 19, 2022

Russia allegedly used a Kinzhal surface to air hypersonic ballistic missile to strike an underground ammunition depot. -Russian Ministry of Defence

— spook (@spook_info) March 19, 2022

First hypersonic weapon used in war?

— spook (@spook_info) March 19, 2022

⚡️Ukraine: Peace talks with Russia could last 'several weeks.'

According to Mykhailo Podolyak, there are signs that Moscow’s position became more “adequate” but negotiations on issues such as security guarantees, withdrawal of Russian troops and a ceasefire “may take longer.”

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 19, 2022

No reports from area of Delyatin yesterday https://t.co/UO3Hs2Qydn

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) March 19, 2022

If I'm a Ukrainian and Russians start loading me up on a Russian Bus I'm probably fairly uneasy…

Kherson pic.twitter.com/CF69JskZf4

— spook (@spook_info) March 19, 2022

2/ Humanitarian Impact. Refugees in various European countries approaches 4 million. Humanitarian corridors continue to be interdicted, blocked, or attacked by Russian forces. Civilians increasingly become primary targets of Russian attacks. https://t.co/SKBO34oZIp

— Jomini of the West (@JominiW) March 19, 2022

⚡️ NATO to send air defense systems to Slovakia.

Germany and the Netherlands will deliver MIM-104 Patriot PAC-3 air defense systems to Slovakia.

Prior, Slovak Defense Minister said that his country would transfer the Soviet-made S-300 air defense systems to Ukraine.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 19, 2022

No, I think that was a typo. The type of missile they claim they used is air to ground.

B-1 83 said:

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aezmvp said:

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The more I look at the overall situation the more convinced I am that going forward Russia will attempt to peel off the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. I don't see any realistic way for them to make significant gains around Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa without at least a very large partial mobilization. Around 500,000 to a million troops.

Mariupol will last at least the rest of this month but it will fall eventually to lack of water and food. After that they will pivot and focus on the city of Zaporizhzhia and moving to create pockets of troops that they can cut off and surround and then force retreats back towards the Dnieper to try and secure as much of the the Donetsk and Luhansk as they can. Then they'll threaten to use nuclear weapons to force a peace. They will need to defend Kherson as it looks like the Ukrainians are clearly pushing that way.

Not worth much but that is what I would look for. The complete failure to quickly secure Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv has basically eliminated the possibility of a complete Russian victory.

If the Russians can secure the transport and supply lines on the coast then they can turn and make things very difficult but without some mobilization... There is just no way for them to get anywhere close to those objectives based on vehicle losses.

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They're not using nukes. If they do, there will be no Russia as Putin knows it. There won't even be a need for nuclear retaliation. I honestly believe the entire world will be so aghast that there will be a united front to isolate Russia to a point it will cease to exist as a functional country, and the Russian people will rid us of Putin.

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For years after WWII, the Soviets called the war "The Great Patriotic War." Love for Mother Russia == "Patriotism" for Russians. "Nationalism" is the opposite of Russian patriotism. So in that sense, everyone fighting against Russia is a Nazi. If the current conflict spreads to Russia vs the World, hoping for the Russian people to turn on Putin is not a sure bet.