This is more an accurate baseline of losses, not a definitive list.

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 17, 2022

“We have observed some, I wouldn't call it increased, but continued naval activity in the north Black Sea off the coast of Odessa, but no shelling over the course of the last 24 hours that no imminent signs of an amphibious assault on Odessa”

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 17, 2022

BoDog said:

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GAC06 said:

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BoDog said:

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Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

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We cannot intercept their ICBM's

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Well there goes my goodnight sleep tonight.

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But supposedly they can around Moscow. My father griped about this my entire 52 year life and likely before.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/moscow-russia-safest-city-world-nuclear-war-138682

JFABNRGR said:

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BoDog said:

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GAC06 said:

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BoDog said:

---

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

---

We cannot intercept their ICBM's

---

Well there goes my goodnight sleep tonight.

---

But supposedly they can around Moscow. My father griped about this my entire 52 year life and likely before.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/moscow-russia-safest-city-world-nuclear-war-138682

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It'll stop the first few, but more than likely it'll be the equivalent of Lucy at the candy factory.

Yeah, I have no doubt we have put considerable thought into overwhelming or thwarting Russia's ABM system around Moscow. Among other options, Moscow is well within range of cruise missiles which are very tough to intercept.

https://www.icanw.org/new_study_on_us_russia_nuclear_war

GAC06 said:

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BoDog said:

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Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

---

We cannot intercept their ICBM's

---

Why not?

Waffledynamics said:

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GAC06 said:

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BoDog said:

---

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

---

We cannot intercept their ICBM's

---

Why not?

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Anti-missile shields are designed to prevent rogue strikes from places like Iran or North Korea if they ever had that capability. A full MAD release isn't able to be stopped.

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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GAC06 said:

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BoDog said:

---

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

---

We cannot intercept their ICBM's

---

Why not?

---

Anti-missile shields are designed to prevent rogue strikes from places like Iran or North Korea if they ever had that capability. A full MAD release isn't able to be stopped.

---

That's assuming you know how many were launched and what our defense truly is...

Anyway, take this to another thread. I don't wanna catch a ban

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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GAC06 said:

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BoDog said:

---

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

---

We cannot intercept their ICBM's

---

Why not?

---

Anti-missile shields are designed to prevent rogue strikes from places like Iran or North Korea if they ever had that capability. A full MAD release isn't able to be stopped.

---

Our best bet would be to pop their ballistic missile subs at the get go and then see what the SM-3's can do for the ICBM's. We would get creamed, but I think that would be the best we could do.

Ivan still has to send some of his payload at Europe.

Hopefully somebody takes Putin out before we get there because it is a no win situation.

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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GAC06 said:

---

BoDog said:

---

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

---

We cannot intercept their ICBM's

---

Why not?

---

Anti-missile shields are designed to prevent rogue strikes from places like Iran or North Korea if they ever had that capability. A full MAD release isn't able to be stopped.

---

It's a little dated, but here's a good video to give some insight:

If it's a domestic based shield, you're not targeting a giant ICBM. You're trying to nail a tiny re-entry vehicle traveling a few thousand miles an hour.

JB!98 said:

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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

---

GAC06 said:

---

BoDog said:

---

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

---

We cannot intercept their ICBM's

---

Why not?

---

Anti-missile shields are designed to prevent rogue strikes from places like Iran or North Korea if they ever had that capability. A full MAD release isn't able to be stopped.

---

Our best bet would be to pop their ballistic missile subs at the get go and then see what the SM-3's can do for the ICBM's. We would get creamed, but I think that would be the best we could do.

Ivan still has to send some of his payload at Europe.

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Yeah, but they've got some to spare. If the time ever comes, it'll be the Oprah delivery system. "You get a nuke, and you get a nuke...Everybody gets a nuke!"

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

---

Waffledynamics said:

---

GAC06 said:

---

BoDog said:

---

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

---

We cannot intercept their ICBM's

---

Why not?

---

Anti-missile shields are designed to prevent rogue strikes from places like Iran or North Korea if they ever had that capability. A full MAD release isn't able to be stopped.

---

It's a little dated, but here's a good video to give some insight:

If it's a domestic based shield, you're not targeting a giant ICBM. You're trying to nail a tiny re-entry vehicle traveling a few thousand miles an hour.

---

So many dummy warheads would overwhelm any known anti-missile defense systems we have.

Key word is --- 'known'.

However, he added: "If the only other scenario for Putin is losing power, freedom and possibly his life he will absolutely, with no hesitation use nuclear weapons on Ukraine."

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1582397/vladmir-putin-nuclear-weapons-russia-ukraine-world-war-three?amp_js_v=0.1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D

TheEternalPessimist said:

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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

---

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

---

Waffledynamics said:

---

GAC06 said:

---

BoDog said:

---

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

---

We cannot intercept their ICBM's

---

Why not?

---

Anti-missile shields are designed to prevent rogue strikes from places like Iran or North Korea if they ever had that capability. A full MAD release isn't able to be stopped.

---

It's a little dated, but here's a good video to give some insight:

If it's a domestic based shield, you're not targeting a giant ICBM. You're trying to nail a tiny re-entry vehicle traveling a few thousand miles an hour.

---

So many dummy warheads would overwhelm any known anti-missile defense systems we have.

Key word is --- 'known'.

---

I'm sure we've probably got some fun stuff out there, but between spies, satellites, and sheer logistics, I don't see us having a good enough shield where I'd be willing to gamble and find out. If I'm wrong, I'll eat crow; it'll be a tasty crow and I'd savor every bite.

“they [Russia] clearly weren't ready for the pushback that they have been getting from - the Ukrainians. So three weeks in, they're still able to maintain their force in the field. But not without difficulty.”

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 18, 2022

Significantly, whilst Ukraine has lost 66 tanks, they've captured 106 from the Russians.

With the obvious caveat that this is a baseline figure of visually confirmed losses, not a complete list, it's still entirely possible Ukraine now has more tanks than when the war started. https://t.co/YzwrPuIo4R

— Jimmy (@JimmySecUK) March 18, 2022

JFABNRGR said:

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Is the explosive large enough to damage the structure permanently or just enough to damage targeting mechanisms, wheels, ancillary type items?

Obviously, the crew if present isn't going to be very productive and ideally any munitions get cooked off will likely cause way more damage.

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Looked it up when I first heard about them and the larger one is absolutely packing an anti armor warhead. So huge explosion not needed, just penetration power. The smaller one I saw billed as an anti personnel model, akin to a 40mm grenade by with a more directed blast like a shotgun.

No hard details on either warhead I could find.

Fun fact, the Switchblade has already been used in combat in Afghanistan back in 2012 and onward. Even some use against ISIS afterwards. No details on effectiveness aside from "urgent requests for more of them". Had no idea they have been operational that long.

Interesting stuff.

I have been trying to put this in perspective for myself and inform my son and wife about this conflict and how the Ukes are still in this fight. The conservative estimates show that the Russians have lost around 10-12% of our total KIA in Vietnam. They have also suffered around 15% of our total WIA in Vietnam. They have lost about 10% of their tanks vs the total of M4 Sherman tanks that we lost in all of WWII. They have accomplished this in the span of 3 weeks.

Guy hasn't even made it through war yet. I think that talk is a little premature. And my thoughts are quite opposite. I would imagine if he does make it through this it's going to be an extremely humbling experience. I would also imagine at that point he fully understands he represents all of Ukraine and wouldn't want to let them down.

Here is the article discussing the situation as far as shipments of grain from the Black Sea. https://t.co/j9iKEyneb8

— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) March 18, 2022

Rossticus said:

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Parliaments of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia call to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine to save the lives of Ukrainians #ProtectUАSky

— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) March 17, 2022

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Surely they must be aware of how futile and pointless this vote is, and how dangerous it would be if they got their way.

Right?

Looks like Russia’s Bear Net is active. https://t.co/3tvKeLoFYC

— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) March 18, 2022