***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Eliminatus
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PJYoung said:


Looking at the situation as objectively as possible, they are absolutely right. These losses are crippling to any first world nation. It's not just the outright cost of the equipment itself, it is the untold amount that went into it. A modern soldier dies it is not just a single tally in a single list. A single soldier costs so much to maintain and train. Extrapolate that across five digit numbers and you have enormous lost costs in expenditure. I remember hearing that it took the US government close to a $1MM for me from the day I stepped on some yellow footprints to the day I stepped onto foreign soil the first time. And I was just a line grunt with some additional spicy training in anti-armor and demolitions. I have zero reason to disbelieve that figure.

No first world nation can absorb those losses without feeling it. This modern equipment isn't mass produced either. Those sexy Ka-52 scout helos? Less than a 100 operational in the entire Russian inventory before the war even started. T14? Less than a dozen last time I checked. Su-57? Their answer to our fifth gens? FOUR.

Russia stuck it's whole head in a blender and honestly? Good. Our Vietnam vets deserve some payback.
McInnis 03
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C@LAg said:

Premium said:

With all of this new tech we are seeing, what kind of tech do we have that no other country could defend against? And to the opposite, what potentially do other countries have that we could not defend against?
the other side has supersonic nuclear missiles


Hypersonic, right?
JB!98
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Eliminatus said:

PJYoung said:


Looking at the situation as objectively as possible, they are absolutely right. These losses are crippling to any first world nation. It's not just the outright cost of the equipment itself, it is the untold amount that went into it. A modern soldier dies it is not just a single tally in a single list. A single soldier costs so much to maintain and train. Extrapolate that across five digit numbers and you have enormous lost costs in expenditure. I remember hearing that it took the US government close to a $1MM for me from the day I stepped on some yellow footprints to the day I stepped onto foreign soil the first time. And I was just a line grunt with some additional spicy training in anti-armor and demolitions. I have zero reason to disbelieve that figure.

No first world nation can absorb those losses without feeling it. This modern equipment isn't mass produced either. Those sexy Ka-52 scout helos? Less than a 100 operational in the entire Russian inventory before the war even started. T14? Less than a dozen last time I checked. Su-57? Their answer to our fifth gens? FOUR.

Russia stuck it's whole head in a blender and honestly? Good. Our Vietnam vets deserve some payback.
I understand that the Russian public is not being told the entire story or any of the story. Could you imagine the reaction of the American public if we had sustained even 4,000 KIA and 20,000 WIA (conservative figures) in the first weeks of the invasion of Iraq. Not to mention the destruction of equipment and attacks on civilian targets?

Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
SPSAg05
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twilly said:

China will do what they always do...play both sides.

They'll make money selling weapons to Russia, and when it's all over, they'll profit from the rebuild in Ukraine.
If we know without a doubt that they provide weapons to Russia during the insurgency, then why do we have to let them be part of the rebuild?
twilly
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It's a big assumption we'll have the power to keep them from being a part of it after the war. Europe will drive that boat.
Rossticus
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Article from US Naval Institute on Putin's escalation doctrine.



https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017/february/escalate-de-escalate
FireAg
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I'm starting to be more and more concerned that Putin is going to go nuclear…

I think he's starting to feel like an injured animal backed into the corner…

I think he knows he's lost in Ukraine and he may intend to go out in a blaze of glory…
BoDog
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If Putin uses a single nuke to "put us in our place," why can't we drop one down the chimney of the Kremlin?

Also are these supersonic nukes that they supposedly have legit or is it more Russian propaganda?
FireAg
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BoDog said:

If Putin uses a single nuke to "put us in our place," why can't we drop one down the chimney of the Kremlin?

Also are these supersonic nukes that they supposedly have legit or is it more Russian propaganda?

One nuke released and life as we know it is over…

Why? Because everyone will launch…

If one nuke is deployed…God help us all…
mmh
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FireAg said:

I'm starting to be more and more concerned that Putin is going to go nuclear…

I think he's starting to feel like an injured animal backed into the corner…

I think he knows he's lost in Ukraine and he may intend to go out in a blaze of glory…

Take it easy.

I'm pretty sure that's what he wants you to think.
Rossticus
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FireAg said:

I'm starting to be more and more concerned that Putin is going to go nuclear…

I think he's starting to feel like an injured animal backed into the corner…

I think he knows he's lost in Ukraine and he may intend to go out in a blaze of glory…


Problem is that you may very well end up in the "Give Putin Whatever He Wants Whenever He Wants Wherever He Wants" quagmire if you fail to stand firm.

If you back down in the face of that threat is it a "Peace For Our Time" moment that emboldens him to use it as a tactic in order to attempt to ensure future successes?
smstork1007
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No expert here, but based on what we have seen thru almost 3 weeks in Ukraine, I'd be willing to bet that those clowns don't have anything close to a hypersonic nuke. As each day passes, they are more closely related to NK than to any real world superpower.
BoDog
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Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...
VitruvianAg
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BoDog said:

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...


Submarines say hello!
JFABNRGR
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Combined post to multiple comments last 2 pages.

1. Gen. Roman Gavrilov, of Rosgvardia, the internal military force of the Russian Federation that reports directly to Putin, reportedly resigned.

I am pretty confident his resignation isn't going to be what he thought it was.

2. Tactical Nukes.

Not my expertise for sure, but what would russia target with these to give them advantage? Military asset wise the Ukes are so spread out, I don't see any gain here, and then the Ukes would garner more worldly support. This leaves the cities as targets and would be so horrific, it should trigger an immediate and overwhelming response from other countries to annihilate all russian assets in Ukraine maybe even some in russia and isolate them even further economically and socially.

3. Switchblade drones

Not an expert on these either, but how effective are they on MBTs?
I can sure see getting creative on multiple ways to utilize them especially with 40-90KM ranges. Hope they can get into operation ASAP all over Ukraine. Talk about a moral buster.
ttu_85
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VitruvianAg said:

BoDog said:

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...


Submarines say hello!
Well technically its the SLBM's that would say hello if they are not killed by American Attack subs.
SLBM Sub Launched Ballistic Missile
GAC06
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FireAg said:

BoDog said:

If Putin uses a single nuke to "put us in our place," why can't we drop one down the chimney of the Kremlin?

Also are these supersonic nukes that they supposedly have legit or is it more Russian propaganda?

One nuke released and life as we know it is over…

Why? Because everyone will launch…

If one nuke is deployed…God help us all…


"Everyone will launch"

Dumb.

Why? Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine. Do we launch? No. Does the UK? France? India? Pakistan? Israel? China? No.
ttu_85
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mmh said:

FireAg said:

I'm starting to be more and more concerned that Putin is going to go nuclear…

I think he's starting to feel like an injured animal backed into the corner…

I think he knows he's lost in Ukraine and he may intend to go out in a blaze of glory…

Take it easy.

I'm pretty sure that's what he wants you to think.
Maybe but does that make fireAg's statement false ?

Nope.
ttu_85
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GAC06 said:

FireAg said:

BoDog said:

If Putin uses a single nuke to "put us in our place," why can't we drop one down the chimney of the Kremlin?

Also are these supersonic nukes that they supposedly have legit or is it more Russian propaganda?

One nuke released and life as we know it is over…

Why? Because everyone will launch…

If one nuke is deployed…God help us all…


"Everyone will launch"

Dumb.

Why? Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine. Do we launch? No. Does the UK? France? India? Pakistan? Israel? China? No.
You dont need everyone to launch. Just a few would be enough to jackup everything up.
GAC06
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BoDog said:

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...


We cannot intercept their ICBM's
FireAg
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Rossticus said:

FireAg said:

I'm starting to be more and more concerned that Putin is going to go nuclear…

I think he's starting to feel like an injured animal backed into the corner…

I think he knows he's lost in Ukraine and he may intend to go out in a blaze of glory…


Problem is that you may very well end up in the "Give Putin Whatever He Wants Whenever He Wants Wherever He Wants" quagmire if you fail to stand firm.

If you back down in the face of that threat is it a "Peace For Our Time" moment that emboldens him to use it as a tactic in order to attempt to ensure future successes?

Make no mistake…I think the we are in a bad spot…we can't allow him to launch and not respond…

We can't respond and not expect nuclear holocaust…

There is no good solution to a nuke being deployed…zero…

But we can't let it happen and not do anything about it either…

Someone needs to neutralize Putin soon…
BoDog
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GAC06 said:

BoDog said:

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...


We cannot intercept their ICBM's
Well there goes my goodnight sleep tonight.
GAC06
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ttu_85 said:

GAC06 said:

FireAg said:

BoDog said:

If Putin uses a single nuke to "put us in our place," why can't we drop one down the chimney of the Kremlin?

Also are these supersonic nukes that they supposedly have legit or is it more Russian propaganda?

One nuke released and life as we know it is over…

Why? Because everyone will launch…

If one nuke is deployed…God help us all…


"Everyone will launch"

Dumb.

Why? Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine. Do we launch? No. Does the UK? France? India? Pakistan? Israel? China? No.
You dont need everyone to launch. Just a few would be enough to F* everything up.


A few would be horrible but not the end of the world
Ulrich
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If Putin presses the metaphorical big red button, what are the odds that the missiles launch? I think it's possible (but not likely) that some sort of insubordination or coup would take place if he tried to launch nukes.
FireAg
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GAC06 said:

FireAg said:

BoDog said:

If Putin uses a single nuke to "put us in our place," why can't we drop one down the chimney of the Kremlin?

Also are these supersonic nukes that they supposedly have legit or is it more Russian propaganda?

One nuke released and life as we know it is over…

Why? Because everyone will launch…

If one nuke is deployed…God help us all…


"Everyone will launch"

Dumb.

Why? Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine. Do we launch? No. Does the UK? France? India? Pakistan? Israel? China? No.

I don't think he will rely on tactical nukes…

The sanctions are digging deep and his armies have proven to be *******…

He is running out of cards to play…
Who?mikejones!
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Rossticus said:

FireAg said:

I'm starting to be more and more concerned that Putin is going to go nuclear…

I think he's starting to feel like an injured animal backed into the corner…

I think he knows he's lost in Ukraine and he may intend to go out in a blaze of glory…


Problem is that you may very well end up in the "Give Putin Whatever He Wants Whenever He Wants Wherever He Wants" quagmire if you fail to stand firm.

If you back down in the face of that threat is it a "Peace For Our Time" moment that emboldens him to use it as a tactic in order to attempt to ensure future successes?


I agree. We've already capitulated to putin because of his nuke threat. We know it, he knows it, China knows it, everyone knows it it.

Putin doesn't care about Russians. I'm not convinced he will acknowledge the sanctions and can probably spin it as a way to build a Russia for Russia and by Russia. Pretty easy when he is willing to disappear all those who disagree.

FireAg
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Ulrich said:

If Putin presses the metaphorical big red button, what are the odds that the missiles launch? I think it's possible (but not likely) that some sort of insubordination or coup would take place if he tried to launch nukes.

I pray so…
Not a Bot
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Those switch blades would likely best be used on the artillery.
ttu_85
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GAC06 said:

ttu_85 said:

GAC06 said:

FireAg said:

BoDog said:

If Putin uses a single nuke to "put us in our place," why can't we drop one down the chimney of the Kremlin?

Also are these supersonic nukes that they supposedly have legit or is it more Russian propaganda?

One nuke released and life as we know it is over…

Why? Because everyone will launch…

If one nuke is deployed…God help us all…


"Everyone will launch"

Dumb.

Why? Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine. Do we launch? No. Does the UK? France? India? Pakistan? Israel? China? No.
You dont need everyone to launch. Just a few would be enough to F* everything up.


A few would be horrible but not the end of the world
True statement but it would usher in a period of global unrest and extreme instability. Things are spooky enough.
SPSAg05
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There was a documentary on all of this a while back. Peter Sellers was impeccable.
Blackbeard94
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Rossticus said:

Article from US Naval Institute on Putin's escalation doctrine.



https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017/february/escalate-de-escalate
Very interesting read. Not sure how people can be so callous about firing nuclear weapons in some "escalate to de-escalate" gambit. Sick minds. Truly depraved.

mickeyrig06sq3
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GAC06 said:

FireAg said:

BoDog said:

If Putin uses a single nuke to "put us in our place," why can't we drop one down the chimney of the Kremlin?

Also are these supersonic nukes that they supposedly have legit or is it more Russian propaganda?

One nuke released and life as we know it is over…

Why? Because everyone will launch…

If one nuke is deployed…God help us all…


"Everyone will launch"

Dumb.

Why? Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine. Do we launch? No. Does the UK? France? India? Pakistan? Israel? China? No.
I think the "one nuke released" referred to if he used one on a NATO country.

If I had to guess the various responses to use of nuclear weapons:
1. Single low yield in Ukraine. NATO removes its self-imposed restrictions and pushes Russia to the border.
2. Single low yield nuke in NATO territory. Same as #1, but then we continue into Russia to neuter them. Leadership, infrastructure, and military. No need for ground troops, we don't care about controlling and rebuilding. Putin at some point realizes it's over, then he launches the rest.
3. Single ICBM @ NATO. Reset to stone age.
4. Full force of Russian nuclear arsenal, see #3.
lb3
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Ag In Ok said:

Rossticus said:




I don't agree based on current events. If it were that close, there wouldn't be a loss of isium (sp) and Russian breakthroughs along the Donetsk front.
A lot of news has broken since your comment, but you don't have to win every battle to win the war. If Russia is going to run out of fuel, ammo, food, or soldiers soon, things could see a decisive turn soon.
JFABNRGR
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Is the explosive large enough to damage the structure permanently or just enough to damage targeting mechanisms, wheels, ancillary type items?

Obviously, the crew if present isn't going to be very productive and ideally any munitions get cooked off will likely cause way more damage.
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