***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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AvidAggie
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In reply to DCPD158 • 2:06p, 3/15/22
AG
DCPD158 said:
Rossticus said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
Tramp96 said:
McInnis 03 said:
Wow.


You have to admire the bravery of these EU leaders to willingly travel to the heart of the war, and the main target of the Russian forces now, to have these discussions with the Ukranian leadership.


Yeah. Kind of daring the Russians to **** around and find out. If one of them is killed, there's a strong chance of reprisal and war with NATO. If the Russians are having trouble now, that is the last thing they want


They're figuring it out. THIS is how you beat Putin. If he thinks he's a man among boys he gets belligerent. If you act like your balls are bigger and you know it then he treads much more lightly. Too bad these guys acted like they didn't know this for the past 6 months. Could have prevent much loss of innocent life. Better late than never and I hope the stick with it.

Can this 3 countries go rogue and not as NATO or EU, go all out to defend Ukraine? Do they possess the military might together to help Ukraine push the Russians out?

They wouldn't do this without buy-in from the US.
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PJYoung
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2:07p, 3/15/22
AG
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mickeyrig06sq3
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In reply to DCPD158 • 2:08p, 3/15/22
AG
DCPD158 said:
Rossticus said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
Tramp96 said:
McInnis 03 said:
Wow.


You have to admire the bravery of these EU leaders to willingly travel to the heart of the war, and the main target of the Russian forces now, to have these discussions with the Ukranian leadership.


Yeah. Kind of daring the Russians to **** around and find out. If one of them is killed, there's a strong chance of reprisal and war with NATO. If the Russians are having trouble now, that is the last thing they want


They're figuring it out. THIS is how you beat Putin. If he thinks he's a man among boys he gets belligerent. If you act like your balls are bigger and you know it then he treads much more lightly. Too bad these guys acted like they didn't know this for the past 6 months. Could have prevent much loss of innocent life. Better late than never and I hope the stick with it.

Can this 3 countries go rogue and not as NATO or EU, go all out to defend Ukraine? Do they possess the military might together to help Ukraine push the Russians out?
Technically, they can if they want. NATO is a defensive only pact, it's not required to join the fight if a country initiates the engagement. Even if that was the case, it would put NATO in a crappy position if Putin decided to start air strikes on one of those countries.
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txags92
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In reply to Squadron7 • 2:08p, 3/15/22
AG
Squadron7 said:
Question from a n00b: How does a Harpoon's targeting system operate for something over the horizon?
They are generally fired to a location where they think the ship(s) will be, and then the unit turns on its seeker unit and starts looking for a target. It picks the biggest/most solid return it gets and heads for that. If it doesn't see anything, it keeps flying until it does or it runs out of fuel. Very complicated to fire in open shipping areas if they don't have really good intel on the exact locations of the Russian ships. I suspect that we have a drone or two or a ELINT bird up that will be able to give them pretty accurate intel on where the ships are at if they decide to start firing them.
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Rossticus
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In reply to AvidAggie • 2:09p, 3/15/22
AvidAggie said:
DCPD158 said:
Rossticus said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
Tramp96 said:
McInnis 03 said:
Wow.


You have to admire the bravery of these EU leaders to willingly travel to the heart of the war, and the main target of the Russian forces now, to have these discussions with the Ukranian leadership.


Yeah. Kind of daring the Russians to **** around and find out. If one of them is killed, there's a strong chance of reprisal and war with NATO. If the Russians are having trouble now, that is the last thing they want


They're figuring it out. THIS is how you beat Putin. If he thinks he's a man among boys he gets belligerent. If you act like your balls are bigger and you know it then he treads much more lightly. Too bad these guys acted like they didn't know this for the past 6 months. Could have prevent much loss of innocent life. Better late than never and I hope the stick with it.

Can this 3 countries go rogue and not as NATO or EU, go all out to defend Ukraine? Do they possess the military might together to help Ukraine push the Russians out?

They wouldn't do this without buy-in from the US.


US has already guaranteed protection of NATO soil. Theoretically, those countries could enter Ukraine on their own initiative and the US would fill the void behind them. Then, if Putin attacked those countries outside of Ukraine, it's on.
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Wrec86 Ag
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:12p, 3/15/22
Rossticus said:
Want.

I mean, there are a lot (and I mean A LOT) of issues with this both morally and legally......

But how far into the future do we have to go until you and I can safely sit in our living room controlling a remote control sniper rifle in Kiev shooting Russian soldiers ?

Like Call of Duty but for real.
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aeroag14
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In reply to 74OA • 2:13p, 3/15/22
AG
74OA said:
Squadron7 said:
Question from a n00b: How does a Harpoon's targeting system operate for something over the horizon?
HARPOON


I don't have much anti ship experience, but do have a ton of missile guidance experience in general.

I would imagine that older variants (not upgraded with a datalink) are passed the target ships Lat and Long over the umbilical at launch and the missile basically flys to that lat and long, then turns it's active radar on when it believes it is close enough to see the target.

For later variants with a datalink, I am sure that inflight updates of target position are passed to the missile via the datalink. And then when the missile is close enough to turn on its radar it goes active and guides solely on its own active measurements.
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txags92
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In reply to aeroag14 • 2:19p, 3/15/22
AG
aeroag14 said:
74OA said:
Squadron7 said:
Question from a n00b: How does a Harpoon's targeting system operate for something over the horizon?
HARPOON


I don't have much anti ship experience, but do have a ton of missile guidance experience in general.

I would imagine that older variants (not upgraded with a datalink) are passed the target ships Lat and Long over the umbilical at launch and the missile basically flys to that lat and long, then turns it's active radar on when it believes it is close enough to see the target.

For later variants with a datalink, I am sure that inflight updates of target position are passed to the missile via the datalink. And then when the missile is close enough to turn on its radar it goes active and guides solely on its own active measurements.
I think only one variant has the data link, and I don't think we have sold any of those to other countries yet.
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CS78
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2:22p, 3/15/22
What type of missile defense does the Russian navy have? What percentage of Neptune's could they expect to have connect?
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Rossticus
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2:33p, 3/15/22
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In reply to CS78 • 2:33p, 3/15/22
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CS78 said:
What type of missile defense does the Russian navy have? What percentage of Neptune's could they expect to have connect?


They've focused heavily on modernizing ballistic missiles and navy. I'm sure they have decent anti-air interceptor missiles and CIWS.

Neptune is a modern upgraded system so would be an interesting test.
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PJYoung
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2:33p, 3/15/22
AG


Quote:
By targeting Russia's reserves denominated in euros and dollars and blocking access to paper currency, the West severely restricted Russia's ability to import goods from the EU and the US.

The EU is Russia's biggest trading partner, accounting for 36,5% of its imports. Another 5,4% come from the US. Russia can still pay for its imports with currency that comes from current exports, however, this currency is also needed to stop the freefall of the ruble.

Overall, financial sanctions dramatically limit Russia's capacity to import goods. Furthermore, exports are bound to fall too. The US has already stopped importing Russian oil. The EU is still buying oil and gas from Russia, but for how long and at what volumes?

Sanctions by logistical companies such as Maersk, excluding Russian banks from SWIFT and cutting other options for international financial transactions further restrict imports. Finally, many Western companies simply stopped exporting goods and services to Russia.

The Russian economy is no different from any other modern economy in a sense that it is integrated in complex global supply chains. Logistics works on the just-in-time principle (so the stockpiles of foreign-produced components are very limited).

Restrictions on imports will destroy Russian productive capacity in most spheres. Many factories (even those that are Russian-owned) stopped production because they lack foreign components.

They might retain the workforce, waiting for the renewal of imports, but if this doesn't happen in a few weeks or months, dramatic spike in unemployment is guaranteed. In addition, some of Russia's productive capacity is directly organized by foreign capital.

The number of employees in foreign and mixed-ownership firms in Russia is 5 million (some 10% of the workforce in formal employment). Many of these companies are currently suspending activities or leaving Russia altogether, leading to the severe crisis of unemployment.

Of course, because of economic linkages, unemployment will be cascading further and further.

All in all, no other economy in the world has experienced anything like this extreme de-globalization in a matter of days.

It is impossible to adapt to this situation. Nationalizations of Western companies, even if they happen, do not guarantee that the new managers would be able to resume production.

Trade with China and other countries cannot replace trade with the West: 1) The volume is simply too high; 2) The quality of Chinese goods and components is uneven and unreliable; 3) Knowing that it can hold Russia hostage, China will offer highly unfavorable trade terms.

This is worse than Iran and Cuba (for the simple reason that Russia is a bigger economy and de-globalization happened at a much more globalized stage of its development).

The damage that is already done is extreme, but if the situation goes on for, say, a year, I predict 30% drop in GDP, 20-30% drop in employment and the elimination of at least half of the middle class.

Hunger might be avoided by controlling prices on essential food items, but overall, this is misery and destitution that rivals and surpasses the early 1990s.
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brad5q
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In reply to CS78 • 2:34p, 3/15/22
AG
Do they have an equivalent to the Vulcan?
Ag BQ '80
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Touchless
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2:36p, 3/15/22
AG
I can understand adults staying behind, but I don't understand how kids could still be in this city. As a parent, I would have evacuated them, along with my wife, immediately and then stayed to actually fight back.

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GAC06
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In reply to txags92 • 2:37p, 3/15/22
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Ukraine doesn't have harpoons to my knowledge. I think people are just saying "harpoon" because that's the anti ship missile they've heard of
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Rossticus
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2:39p, 3/15/22
Uh huh. Riiiiiiight. Nice try Russia.

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In reply to PJYoung • 2:41p, 3/15/22
AG
Not sure how many they've been able to deploy.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir-M

Replacing the older 1980's era system. That system is only on some destroyers, frigates and carriers.

The troop transporters likely don't have them.
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JonSnow
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 2:43p, 3/15/22
JFABNRGR said:
Supply convoy with no armor escorts minus the one in the back. It appears only one vehicle may have taken any evasive action, which I can't explain. Not sure if the doors were opened by fleeing soldiers, searched after the fact and left open or combination of the above.
Seems like after the first car got hit, they all ran for the hills and abandoned the convoy. No signs of evasion or fighting back at all.
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VitruvianAg
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In reply to Touchless • 2:44p, 3/15/22
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Touchless said:
I can understand adults staying behind, but I don't understand how kids could still be in this city. As a parent, I would have evacuated them, along with my wife, immediately and then stayed to actually fight back.

Looks like they are buggin' out!
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Rossticus
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2:45p, 3/15/22
Lukashenko has accused Ukraine of launching a missile into Belarus which missile defense intercepted.

As confirmation of this claim, Belarusian TV supposedly showed part of a lightly damaged missile (that looks like it was cut neatly with a cutting torch) laying peacefully in the middle of a completely undamaged city street. No debris. No fire. No other damage.
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JonSnow
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:45p, 3/15/22
Rossticus said:
Want.

Looks like the Ukes have brought in Walter White as a consultant.
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PJYoung
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2:46p, 3/15/22
AG


Quote:
"On day 20 of Russia's war, we continue to assess limited to no progress by Russian ground forces in achieving their objectives."

"Kyiv remains under bombardment by long range fires, with civilian targets - to include residential areas - being struck with increasing frequency. But leading elements of Russian forces have not appreciably advanced on the city."

"We estimate Russian forces are still about 15-20km to the northwest and about 20-30km to the east. Ukrainians hold Brovary and are still defending Kyiv."

"Chernihiv remains isolated, but we still assess that Ukrainians are working to keep a line of communication open.

"Mariupol is likewise isolated and still suffering heavy bombardment."

"Russian forces are still on the outskirts of Kharkiv, where, as before, they face stiff Ukrainian resistance.

"We've observed no apparent movement toward or past Mykolaiv."

"While we have observed some LSTs operating in the northern Black Sea, we are not seeing any imminent amphibious movement toward Odesa."

"There are no changes to the air picture to report. The Russians have now fired more than 950 missiles. There are no new strikes into western Ukraine to report."

"We assess that the Russians have approximately 90% of their combat power available to them; same for the Ukrainians."

"We have seen no movement of Russian forces stationed elsewhere in Russia being deployed to the west to reinforce the BTGs the Russians already have in Ukraine. And we've seen no evidence of Russian efforts to flow in additional supplies from inside Russia or from elsewhere."

"But we have reason to believe the Russians are considering their resupply and manning options.

"We still have no indications of Belarus inserting troops or preparing to do so."

"We have no updates on the convoy. It is still stuck.

"We have nothing to report with respect to Russian chemical or biological weapons."

"We cannot confirm Ukrainian reports of the deaths of senior Russian officers."

"Security assistance from the United States and other nations continues, to include over the last 24 hours. We will not detail the specifics, but these shipments did include weapons."
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Htownag11
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:48p, 3/15/22
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Well I accuse Belarus of allowing themselves to be a staging ground for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 1 missile seems justified.
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Rossticus
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2:53p, 3/15/22
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ttu_85
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In reply to brad5q • 2:58p, 3/15/22
brad5q said:
Do they have an equivalent to the Vulcan?
Are you meaning the Phalanx which I think is a M61 gatling. If so this is a pretty old but effective system. I think the Russains like 23MM variants
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Rossticus
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3:07p, 3/15/22
Interesting. Wondering if things are happening that NATO is keeping quiet and choosing not to respond to.

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txags92
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In reply to GAC06 • 3:08p, 3/15/22
AG
GAC06 said:
Ukraine doesn't have harpoons to my knowledge. I think people are just saying "harpoon" because that's the anti ship missile they've heard of
Correct, the Neptune is their version of the Harpoon. I was just answering with what I did because people were asking about the Harpoon.
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EX TEXASEX
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In reply to agent-maroon • 3:17p, 3/15/22
agent-maroon said:
Chinese MRE's? Just the thing to boost morale of those cold, hungry troops.
I have seen Steve1989MREInfo and a couple of other YouTubers due a couple reviews of those and they are horrible. They are probably loaded with mercury and cadmium too !! I say let the chicoms send them. An excellent morale killer.
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mickeyrig06sq3
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In reply to Rossticus • 3:17p, 3/15/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Interesting. Wondering if things are happening that NATO is keeping quiet and choosing not to respond to.

Russia has probably come close enough, but in a "I'm not hitting you" sort of way. NATO isn't showing weakness in this.You could argue that the West is, and NATO is mostly interchangeable in most regards. However, the purpose of NATO is defense of NATO, full-stop. NATO nations were well within their legal rights to just completely turn their back. In regards to their legal rights, not moral obligations; slight difference. The West has pushed as far as we can up to the point of crossing that red line. I guarantee you that they're postured for the moment that Putin crosses that particular line intentionally. Putin won't do that, at least not conventionally.
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one MEEN Ag
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In reply to txags92 • 3:18p, 3/15/22
AG
txags92 said:
GAC06 said:
Ukraine doesn't have harpoons to my knowledge. I think people are just saying "harpoon" because that's the anti ship missile they've heard of
Correct, the Neptune is their version of the Harpoon. I was just answering with what I did because people were asking about the Harpoon.
I can already see the headlines once Russia starts their sea attack.

Breaking: Ukraine Launches A Neptune to Uranus
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to Wrec86 Ag • 3:19p, 3/15/22
AG
We have been doing this for a decade or more using drones operated from las vegas to target HVTs around the world. Mossad used this in 2020 on an Iranian nuclear scientist in Iran (the vid is good). The Ukes and russians doing it now and I predict we will see a massive increase of drone use by the russians.

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Rossticus
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3:29p, 3/15/22

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LMCane
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3:37p, 3/15/22
Very specific discussion of tactics and strategy in the Aerospace sphere
within the Ukraine-Russian battlespace from the Mitchell Institute:

US Air Force Officers Discuss Ukraine War
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mickeyrig06sq3
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In reply to Rossticus • 3:38p, 3/15/22
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Rossticus said:

This still circles back to NATO obligations vs western. Until article 5 gets invoke, countries can do whatever the heck they want diplomatically. If article 5 does get called up, member states better respond. Better to get dragged into a war you're trying to avoid, than to duck out the back. They'd be relegated to Belarusian status.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Rossticus • 3:43p, 3/15/22
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Rossticus said:



I don't understand the criticism of Turkey as much. Haven't they been supplying drones?
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