BAP Enthusiast said:

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I have heard a number of these stories. Basically the Western volunteers who have been going there are completely unprepared for an enemy who has on par military equipment, air superiority, and significant and accurate long range artillery and missile capabilities.

They don't know how to handle the fact that in Ukraine, they are the goat herders and they can't just call in an air strike when they bite off more than they can chew.

I cannot fathom what these guys were thinking. Did they think this would be like Iraq and Afghanistan? Russia is a modern military and this is conventional warfare against combined arms.

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very good points.

definitely not used to going up against heavy duty artillery, rockets, and missiles

I Have Spoken said:

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Maroon Dawn said:

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GAC06 said:

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It has been pretty clear that the Russians would get decimated in a fight against us.

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Russia won't fight a conventional war against us. They have more than enough nuclear weapons

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So, everyone dies? That is what they'd be willing to do.

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Never underestimate a dictator's willingness to take everything down with him. Especially if they feel that the world and their own people have let them down and are responsible for the failure.

Based on some of the Russian protests it looks like they may give Putin an excuse to feel this way.

Not. Good.

Must have had a big 'un in the sights. Emptied both barrels.

Rossticus said:

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Must have had a big 'un in the sights. Emptied both barrels.

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And may they have eliminated their target.

Maroon Dawn said:

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LostInLA07 said:

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At this point, I'm not sure why Putin would stop unless the Chinese really lean on him in the background. He'll control at least the eastern half of Ukraine in another month or so and he can then offer a cease fire with an east / west Ukraine. East Ukraine is controlled by Russia and Western Ukraine has its capital moved to Lviv. Putin would control the black sea ports, likely most of Ukraine's remaining military equipment, most major cities, and whatever the river is called that basically divides the country in half would be a nice strategic barrier for him. He'd also control all of the associated water rights and, therefore, farming in the country. If he takes Odessa, "West Ukraine" would be a landlocked.

Once he controls "Eastern Ukraine" I think he would evaluate that the remainder of "western ukraine" isn't worth additional losses. But I don't think he controls enough territory yet to stop on his own without substantial influence from the Chinese (and I guess India.)

In fact, I think that is his strategy if he agrees to evacuation routes to the west in the near term. He'll view that as simply clearing out "insurgents" who would cause trouble for him once he has to govern the territory he is trying to capture.

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This is my assessment as well.

His goal isn't total occupation. It's to take away the strategic eastern half of Ukraine that has the wheat, the oil, the fresh water and the warm water ports. He'll leave the other half as a place for all the dissidents to run to rather than make trouble there. It can join NATO tomorrow and he won't GAF since he has all the parts of the country that matter

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Putin would absolutely GAF if the nation of "West Ukraine" joined NATO.

BAP Enthusiast said:

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A cruel but underreported reality of the Ukrainian war has been the unpreparedness of the Western veterans and serving soldiers fighting in Ukraine | @CDP1882 https://t.co/oXjkTFJBjG

— UnHerd (@unherd) March 14, 2022

I have heard a number of these stories. Basically the Western volunteers who have been going there are completely unprepared for an enemy who has on par military equipment, air superiority, and significant and accurate long range artillery and missile capabilities.

They don't know how to handle the fact that in Ukraine, they are the goat herders and they can't just call in an air strike when they bite off more than they can chew.

I cannot fathom what these guys were thinking. Did they think this would be like Iraq and Afghanistan? Russia is a modern military and this is conventional warfare against combined arms.

Infantry is not particularly useful against pinpoint airstrikes or cruise missiles. Russia is proving to the world that modern warfare of two peers in military technology will be a massive meat grinder and the only way to have any long term victory is through air superiority and superior long range capability.

I am pretty convinced now that infantry on both sides in a war against Russia would be decimated pretty quickly. I include Special Forces here as well.

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Big sky, little bullet. You're way over estimate the accuracy and availability of indirect fires. Lobbing rounds into a city of 5 million and hitting "something" isn't much of a feat. Besides, all the bombs and airstrikes in the world will take and hold exactly zero yards of ground. Infantry will always be around in some capacity.

I will also tell you that your perception of our use of "airstrikes", especially in civilian occupied battle space, is not accurate. Even in the best of times, we always had priorities for air support in place because there simply wasn't enough air assets to cover a country's real estate.

Maybe Iraq and Afghan veterans will feel more at home when those "thousands" of Syrians start appearing on the battle field.

BAP Enthusiast said:

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A cruel but underreported reality of the Ukrainian war has been the unpreparedness of the Western veterans and serving soldiers fighting in Ukraine | @CDP1882 https://t.co/oXjkTFJBjG

— UnHerd (@unherd) March 14, 2022

I have heard a number of these stories. Basically the Western volunteers who have been going there are completely unprepared for an enemy who has on par military equipment, air superiority, and significant and accurate long range artillery and missile capabilities.

They don't know how to handle the fact that in Ukraine, they are the goat herders and they can't just call in an air strike when they bite off more than they can chew.

I cannot fathom what these guys were thinking. Did they think this would be like Iraq and Afghanistan? Russia is a modern military and this is conventional warfare against combined arms.

Infantry is not particularly useful against pinpoint airstrikes or cruise missiles. Russia is proving to the world that modern warfare of two peers in military technology will be a massive meat grinder and the only way to have any long term victory is through air superiority and superior long range capability.

I am pretty convinced now that infantry on both sides in a war against Russia would be decimated pretty quickly. I include Special Forces here as well.

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But wait I thought air power wasn't needed and that they had plenty of anti armor weapons.

FriscoKid said:

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The picture Ukrainian observers in Kyiv offer of the military situation is quite clear & consistent:
1. Ukrainian forces have taken out nearly half of the actual 110,000 Russian ground forces that entered the country (out of a total of 200,000 Russian forces entering Ukraine).

— Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) March 14, 2022

Probably high, but 10k dead +35k injured, POW, or quit is a big number and would be a significant percentage of the invading army.

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Does anyone actually believe what that Anders guy is saying?

Weapons grade cope

W said:

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BAP Enthusiast said:

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I have heard a number of these stories. Basically the Western volunteers who have been going there are completely unprepared for an enemy who has on par military equipment, air superiority, and significant and accurate long range artillery and missile capabilities.

They don't know how to handle the fact that in Ukraine, they are the goat herders and they can't just call in an air strike when they bite off more than they can chew.

I cannot fathom what these guys were thinking. Did they think this would be like Iraq and Afghanistan? Russia is a modern military and this is conventional warfare against combined arms.

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very good points.

definitely not used to going up against heavy duty artillery, rockets, and missiles

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On the flip side, some equipment has not been sent because the Ukrainians don't have training on certain platforms, and you can't teach it quick. However, if I've got some volunteers in country who know how to use it, that can change things. Not saying it will, but it does provide more options. Some countries have enough volunteers to have their own battalion.

Gets into a muddled grey area, but if get enough of the right people to form an allied air force squadron, give them some F-16s and associated accessories, it'd make things interesting.

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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W said:

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BAP Enthusiast said:

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I have heard a number of these stories. Basically the Western volunteers who have been going there are completely unprepared for an enemy who has on par military equipment, air superiority, and significant and accurate long range artillery and missile capabilities.

They don't know how to handle the fact that in Ukraine, they are the goat herders and they can't just call in an air strike when they bite off more than they can chew.

I cannot fathom what these guys were thinking. Did they think this would be like Iraq and Afghanistan? Russia is a modern military and this is conventional warfare against combined arms.

---

very good points.

definitely not used to going up against heavy duty artillery, rockets, and missiles

---

On the flip side, some equipment has not been sent because the Ukrainians don't have training on certain platforms, and you can't teach it quick. However, if I've got some volunteers in country who know how to use it, that can change things. Not saying it will, but it does provide more options. Some countries have enough volunteers to have their own battalion.

Gets into a muddled grey area, but if get enough of the right people to form an allied air force squadron, give them some F-16s and associated accessories, it'd make things interesting.

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Hard part is figuring out the point at which Putin goes from being an unstable megalomaniac to being a full on cornered animal with nothing to lose.

FriscoKid said:

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You think it's impossible for there to be 40k-50k Russians that have been killed, wounded (and not fighting), surrendered, or went AWOL? I don't understand your pro-Russia ideas here. By all accounts they are taking heavy losses and you think the only thing that can be done is for Ukraine to surrender.

10K killed is not an unreasonable number. At 3x more wounded I don't think the 40-50k number is impossible.

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Yes I think its too high, its higher than the US death rate in WWII per month.

FriscoKid said:

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You think it's impossible for there to be 40k-50k Russians that have been killed, wounded (and not fighting), surrendered, or went AWOL? I don't understand your pro-Russia ideas here. By all accounts they are taking heavy losses and you think the only thing that can be done is for Ukraine to surrender.

10K killed is not an unreasonable number. At 3x more wounded I don't think the 40-50k number is impossible.

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Anders has definitely consistently pushed out the best case situation for Ukraine.

I doubt it's the truth, but that said, it is a data point that can set the upper bound. I think the official US assessments being pushed out at briefings are somewhat on the conservative end. They will be careful.

FriscoKid said:

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You think it's impossible for there to be 40k-50k Russians that have been killed, wounded (and not fighting), surrendered, or went AWOL? I don't understand your pro-Russia ideas here. By all accounts they are taking heavy losses and you think the only thing that can be done is for Ukraine to surrender.

10K killed is not an unreasonable number. At 3x more wounded I don't think the 40-50k number is impossible.

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Yes, I do think it's impossible. At that casualty rate the entire force would have disintegrated by now. If you believe what the Ukrainians are saying you're out to lunch. These are the same people who told us about the "Ghost of Kiev" and "Snake Island last stand" and "2 transport planes full of paratroopers shot down."

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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W said:

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BAP Enthusiast said:

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I have heard a number of these stories. Basically the Western volunteers who have been going there are completely unprepared for an enemy who has on par military equipment, air superiority, and significant and accurate long range artillery and missile capabilities.

They don't know how to handle the fact that in Ukraine, they are the goat herders and they can't just call in an air strike when they bite off more than they can chew.

I cannot fathom what these guys were thinking. Did they think this would be like Iraq and Afghanistan? Russia is a modern military and this is conventional warfare against combined arms.

---

very good points.

definitely not used to going up against heavy duty artillery, rockets, and missiles

---

On the flip side, some equipment has not been sent because the Ukrainians don't have training on certain platforms, and you can't teach it quick. However, if I've got some volunteers in country who know how to use it, that can change things. Not saying it will, but it does provide more options. Some countries have enough volunteers to have their own battalion.

Gets into a muddled grey area, but if get enough of the right people to form an allied air force squadron, give them some F-16s and associated accessories, it'd make things interesting.

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Hard part is figuring out the point at which Putin goes from being an unstable megalomaniac to being a full on cornered animal with nothing to lose.

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The point at which he's facing unavoidable loss. That can happen whether we help or not. So do you play to win or stab them in the back on the 1% chance he loses his marbles?

DCPD158 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Turkey is crawfishing…

From this Statement alone Turkey’s NATO Membership should be Suspended, imagine France continuing to buy Military Equipment from Nazi Germany right after they Invaded Poland. https://t.co/MEqUshUgDo

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 14, 2022

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Who would want Russian military hardware right now?

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Many countries do, especially the ones not allowed to purchase Western equipment.

FriscoKid said:

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baron_von_awesome said:

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FriscoKid said:

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You think it's impossible for there to be 40k-50k Russians that have been killed, wounded (and not fighting), surrendered, or went AWOL? I don't understand your pro-Russia ideas here. By all accounts they are taking heavy losses and you think the only thing that can be done is for Ukraine to surrender.

10K killed is not an unreasonable number. At 3x more wounded I don't think the 40-50k number is impossible.

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Yes I think its too high, its higher than the US death rate in WWII per month.

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Russia has lost 1259 pieces of equipment so far. That's not a small number.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

The above site documents the losses with pictures. (unless you think they are just photo shopping this and it's all fake)

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Okay, that proves nothing. Give us data

I thought the US corroborated one of the take downs of the big transport jets.

RebelE Infantry said:

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FriscoKid said:

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You think it's impossible for there to be 40k-50k Russians that have been killed, wounded (and not fighting), surrendered, or went AWOL? I don't understand your pro-Russia ideas here. By all accounts they are taking heavy losses and you think the only thing that can be done is for Ukraine to surrender.

10K killed is not an unreasonable number. At 3x more wounded I don't think the 40-50k number is impossible.

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Yes, I do think it's impossible. At that casualty rate the entire force would have disintegrated by now. If you believe what the Ukrainians are saying you're out to lunch. These are the same people who told us about the "Ghost of Kiev" and "Snake Island last stand" and "2 transport planes full of paratroopers shot down."

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Yeah, I can't believe those numbers yet. If true, that would be one of the most reverse, lop-sided ass beatings in military history that no one saw coming in such a short time. It's still going to be monumental and one for military doctrine study for the next several years. Not to discount at all.

I'm assuming the real numbers are somewhere between this and the US numbers. I tend to think the UK has the best feel for it at least they did. Haven't seen anyone post much from them lately.

Ag In Ok said:

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I thought the US corroborated one of the take downs of the big transport jets.

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They may have said that, but not one shred of actual evidence has been put forward. And we have pictures of everything from downed helicopters to dang near every time a Russian private loses his pocket knife. And yet not a single photo of giant transport plane wreckage or hundreds of bodies strewn about the countryside. Odd, no?

Rossticus said:

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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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W said:

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BAP Enthusiast said:

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I have heard a number of these stories. Basically the Western volunteers who have been going there are completely unprepared for an enemy who has on par military equipment, air superiority, and significant and accurate long range artillery and missile capabilities.

They don't know how to handle the fact that in Ukraine, they are the goat herders and they can't just call in an air strike when they bite off more than they can chew.

I cannot fathom what these guys were thinking. Did they think this would be like Iraq and Afghanistan? Russia is a modern military and this is conventional warfare against combined arms.

---

very good points.

definitely not used to going up against heavy duty artillery, rockets, and missiles

---

On the flip side, some equipment has not been sent because the Ukrainians don't have training on certain platforms, and you can't teach it quick. However, if I've got some volunteers in country who know how to use it, that can change things. Not saying it will, but it does provide more options. Some countries have enough volunteers to have their own battalion.

Gets into a muddled grey area, but if get enough of the right people to form an allied air force squadron, give them some F-16s and associated accessories, it'd make things interesting.

---

Hard part is figuring out the point at which Putin goes from being an unstable megalomaniac to being a full on cornered animal with nothing to lose.

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The point at which he's facing unavoidable loss. That can happen whether we help or not. So do you play to win or stab them in the back on the 1% chance he loses his marbles?

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That 1% involves resetting civilizations progression for the next few hundred years. We're trying to keep him contained long enough for the sanctions to drive changes from within. Keep him trying to win while someone takes him out of the picture (one way or another). He's not going to win this fast enough to stop Russia from internally collapsing. The only way to win this quickly would basically be to wipe Kyiv off the map and get surrender through mass-murder. Even if he does do that, will the people capitulate, or will it drive them to fight harder?

RebelE Infantry said:

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FriscoKid said:

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You think it's impossible for there to be 40k-50k Russians that have been killed, wounded (and not fighting), surrendered, or went AWOL? I don't understand your pro-Russia ideas here. By all accounts they are taking heavy losses and you think the only thing that can be done is for Ukraine to surrender.

10K killed is not an unreasonable number. At 3x more wounded I don't think the 40-50k number is impossible.

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Yes, I do think it's impossible. At that casualty rate the entire force would have disintegrated by now. If you believe what the Ukrainians are saying you're out to lunch. These are the same people who told us about the "Ghost of Kiev" and "Snake Island last stand" and "2 transport planes full of paratroopers shot down."

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You would think Ukraine would be publicizing POW numbers. Seems like there have been thousands since day one.

Yes. To an extent though - we have no details on where it went down. But i would think out intel of big places would be accurate. We are watching their airfields and borders with other nations.
Fair point - not diminishing it. That's a lot of aluminum to go missing. Unless Russia in their brilliance made it out of manganese.

FriscoKid said:

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baron_von_awesome said:

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FriscoKid said:

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You think it's impossible for there to be 40k-50k Russians that have been killed, wounded (and not fighting), surrendered, or went AWOL? I don't understand your pro-Russia ideas here. By all accounts they are taking heavy losses and you think the only thing that can be done is for Ukraine to surrender.

10K killed is not an unreasonable number. At 3x more wounded I don't think the 40-50k number is impossible.

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Yes I think its too high, its higher than the US death rate in WWII per month.

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Russia has lost 1259 pieces of equipment so far. That's not a small number.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

The above site documents the losses with pictures. (unless you think they are just photo shopping this and it's all fake)

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I think that one of the reasons why you're not seeing major gains in the last week is beyond supply and communication problems. I think part of it is that the Russians have incurred losses approaching 40k. I estimate about 20-25% of their forces have been KIA/WIA/MIA/Captured and essential ground equipment (tanks, IFV, AFV, APC) have been destroyed. That doesn't hurt their artillery as much, and while a good bit of their supply chain has been damaged and hurt, they're supplementing with civilian equipment. The Ukes are doing something similar and it wouldn't surprise me if the Ukrainians have lost 30k men to the same. Doesn't include civilian/partisan casualties. Based on the destruction we're seeing in Kharkiv, outside Kyiv and inside Mariupol... maybe 100k plus dead, wounded, missing, captured Ukrainian military and civvies.

So yes, the Russians probably reached the edge of their initial supply train which appears to be about 90 miles. They need to rebuild new forward dumps and depots and reorganize combat groups for losses and reposition units. They are not done, or beat or even behind on their heals. I would say they still have the initiative and it's uncertain if the Ukes will ever reclaim it. I'm shocked the Ukes haven't thrown more volunteers directly into the fight. From what I can tell they are trying to get them at least a few weeks training. That will pay off in spades if the Ukes can either gain enough time or the Russians give it to them. But I wouldn't expect great gains in Uke counter attacks near artillery or any great strategic sense. Not any time soon anyhow.

But the Russians by doctrine and political need should have been pushing harder. That they're not implies problems beyond supply chain and probably more due to combat losses. The fact that so many mid grade field officers and above (Major and up) have gotten clipped is probably due to having to fight forward with some of these dwindling units. Solid indications that between 30-40 BTG have either been destroyed or can no longer function due to losses. That's quite a bit. Quite a bit of striking power is also at the far end of these supply lines that may be maxed out. So we probably should expect some movement this week after the operational pause to build rudimentary depots up and bring more of their initial group up. The Russian army is also heavier on trigger pullers than we are so their logistical train losses hurt more but if they have gotten knocked around badly then what's happening in the field makes sense at those loss levels.