True. However, if your armed convoys cannot maneuver except on major roads due to Rasputitsa, they become sitting ducks for javelins and drones. This is particularly relevant in the north.Quote:
There's a reason that you win Chess by capturing the king. The idea that control of the roads isn't important ignores the capture-the-flag nature of warfare. You don't need the hearts of farmers in a remote town in order to win - you need to get to (and control) the critical political and utility infrastructure. Biden doesn't care if rednecks hate him as long as they don't storm DC. Putin won't care what Ukrainians think of him as long as they aren't an impediment to his siege.
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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*** We are not going to derail this update thread with a deep dive on whether the Russians will kill evacuating citizens. If you want to discuss that, please start another thread. We will keep this one clear for tactical and strategic updates -- Staff ***
❗️In occupied #Melitopol, #Russian military took control of the city's television tower, radio broadcasting towers and cell phone transmitters, reported mayor of the city Ivan Fedorov
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 7, 2022
According to him more than 90 residential buildings were destroyed as a result of the fighting.
I would be wary of basing all of your judgment based just off the daily maps. As with most things in life in only tells part of the story. We don't know the full context and that is huge. The Ukes have had great success in keeping their unit composition and location out of the limelight and that is crucial.
We know one thing for absolute certainty. Russia has slowed and even bogged down in certain areas. The Ukes know this. Strategically, their greatest ally now is time I believe. I would not be surprised if they are using the tried and true tactic of denying the enemy in areas of Ukraine. This is where you literally refuse active engagement but stay in contact close enough to lure the enemy. It is an ancient tactic and is used to reshape battlelines to your advantage and extend the enemy position and make them vulnerable elsewhere. The Ukes don't have to have a static fight for every single inch of Ukraine right now and they would be dumb to do so. They have space and depth they can trade freely for time and tactical advantage right now. The northern fight is a little more static and traditional I think though but in general getting pinned down in traditional set piece battles would not favor the Ukes. At all. Their nation exists as long as there is an organized armed force surviving. Deny the enemy, live to fight tomorrow, and make the enemy come to you. Burning fuel and exhausting men and material through attrition and wear. Keep the Russians honest with partisans but preserve your army composition for the battles that really matter.
The other thing is that "control" of land does not have nearly the weight as it used to with these kinds of mech heavy mobile warfare. A Russian column controls a road. Cool. They won't 12 hours later when they move on. I don't think the Russians committed nearly the amount of infantry they would need to truly maintain a presence in an area. Though that may be different in the south now.
Just food for thought. Not saying that is definitely what is happening, but it certainly could be and would invalidate a lot of first hot takes based solely off of looking at a map. Context is king and we simply don't have all of it right now.
We know one thing for absolute certainty. Russia has slowed and even bogged down in certain areas. The Ukes know this. Strategically, their greatest ally now is time I believe. I would not be surprised if they are using the tried and true tactic of denying the enemy in areas of Ukraine. This is where you literally refuse active engagement but stay in contact close enough to lure the enemy. It is an ancient tactic and is used to reshape battlelines to your advantage and extend the enemy position and make them vulnerable elsewhere. The Ukes don't have to have a static fight for every single inch of Ukraine right now and they would be dumb to do so. They have space and depth they can trade freely for time and tactical advantage right now. The northern fight is a little more static and traditional I think though but in general getting pinned down in traditional set piece battles would not favor the Ukes. At all. Their nation exists as long as there is an organized armed force surviving. Deny the enemy, live to fight tomorrow, and make the enemy come to you. Burning fuel and exhausting men and material through attrition and wear. Keep the Russians honest with partisans but preserve your army composition for the battles that really matter.
The other thing is that "control" of land does not have nearly the weight as it used to with these kinds of mech heavy mobile warfare. A Russian column controls a road. Cool. They won't 12 hours later when they move on. I don't think the Russians committed nearly the amount of infantry they would need to truly maintain a presence in an area. Though that may be different in the south now.
Just food for thought. Not saying that is definitely what is happening, but it certainly could be and would invalidate a lot of first hot takes based solely off of looking at a map. Context is king and we simply don't have all of it right now.
Completely valid. (mud has had a massive historical impact on warfare and our confidence gained through decades of desert maneuvers has helped us to foolishly forget this critical battlefield factor.)VaultingChemist said:True. However, if your armed convoys cannot maneuver except on major roads due to Rasputitsa, they become sitting ducks for javelins and drones. This is particularly relevant in the north.Quote:
There's a reason that you win Chess by capturing the king. The idea that control of the roads isn't important ignores the capture-the-flag nature of warfare. You don't need the hearts of farmers in a remote town in order to win - you need to get to (and control) the critical political and utility infrastructure. Biden doesn't care if rednecks hate him as long as they don't storm DC. Putin won't care what Ukrainians think of him as long as they aren't an impediment to his siege.
But as supply routes of these weapons get relegated to inefficient options, Russia broadens their security envelope, and Ukrainian fights attrit; the environment likely becomes more permissive to Russian movement.
It seems that Putin doesn't want to fight the people (if he did the city skies would be raining HE). He wants to control/absorb the country. 'Thunder runs' failed so now he's whittling down his adversary: trying to take key geography and drain Kyiv of resources. General freedom of movement of key MSRs is foundational to that goal, while control of the surrounding areas are secondary.
Imagine you want to lay Siege to just Kiev. To do so would mean surrounding it...which could be anywhere from 150-200 kms depending on how far out you setup. Now imagine the forces it would take to do JUST THAT...then remember you are also invading the whole country.Eliminatus said:
The other thing is that "control" of land does not have nearly the weight as it used to with these kinds of mech heavy mobile warfare. A Russian column controls a road. Cool. They won't 12 hours later when they move on. I don't think the Russians committed nearly the amount of infantry they would need to truly maintain a presence in an area. Though that may be different in the south now.
Russia just doesn't have the forces to forcibly occupy Ukraine if the people don't want to be occupied. It's just not mathematically possible.
Sure, they could perhaps defeat organized resistance and all heavy military hardware given enough time and resources, but they'll still never be able to keep ahold of all of Ukraine at once with any sort of force.
This. To control all of Ukraine necessitates controlling a very long western border with NATO states on the other side.Quote:
Sure, they could perhaps defeat organized resistance and all heavy military hardware given enough time and resources, but they'll still never be able to keep ahold of all of Ukraine at once with any sort of force.
Agthatbuilds said:Russia has not gained more territory east of Kyiv but has intensified its attacks northwest of the capital. In the south, Ukraine is fighting to regain control of two strategic airfields.
— C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) March 7, 2022
Mapping with @SimTack & @detresfa_ pic.twitter.com/gaGSqwTo5E
This is the first map i have seen, and i haven't seen them all, showing the Uke counterattack on the western flank of the southern Russian force. Don't know how accurate this is, but interesting to say the least.
Ukraine/Russia: Russian resupplies continue problematic around Kyiv. Earlier Ukrainian forces destroyed numerous fuel tankers in a long resupply convoy heading in from the east around Pryluky.
— The Cavell Group (@TCG_CrisisRisks) March 7, 2022
There's been a lot of talk as to why the Russians have been able to make better progress in the south because it's drier and they aren't just restricted to the roads. How far north does this "dry line" extend? Does it run all the way to the south side of Kyiv, or does it stop somewhere, and Russian troops will be committed to the roads, just like they are in the north? Seems like you'd want to use that natural chokepoint to make a stand in the south.
That is an SA-8 Gecko (9K33 Osa) shooting down a Russian SU-30. https://t.co/JjXOevWCX9
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 7, 2022
Great concise summary
Thx
Thx
_________________________________________________________
Nothing is getting fixed in D.C. until we get term limits for both the House and the Senate
Nothing is getting fixed in D.C. until we get term limits for both the House and the Senate
HTownAg98 said:
There's been a lot of talk as to why the Russians have been able to make better progress in the south because it's drier and they aren't just restricted to the roads. How far north does this "dry line" extend? Does it run all the way to the south side of Kyiv, or does it stop somewhere, and Russian troops will be committed to the roads, just like they are in the north? Seems like you'd want to use that natural chokepoint to make a stand in the south.
This is a good question, and I have no idea. But it will be key for Ukraine to withdraw its forces from the Donbas area and escape encirclement in order to make such a stand. Something to watch for sure.
Imagine trying to "control" Texas with only a couple of hundred thousand soldiers. They'd be spread so thin as to be almost useless, and would be substantially preoccupied just controlling major urban areas. Russia faces that same magnitude of challenge
More than just "wet or dry" you're very likely asking more about the physical geography of the region and the role of the underlying geology on surface conditions.HTownAg98 said:
There's been a lot of talk as to why the Russians have been able to make better progress in the south because it's drier and they aren't just restricted to the roads. How far north does this "dry line" extend? Does it run all the way to the south side of Kyiv, or does it stop somewhere, and Russian troops will be committed to the roads, just like they are in the north? Seems like you'd want to use that natural chokepoint to make a stand in the south.
I don't know the answers, and right now don't have time to search (sorry), but that's where I'd start!
Kenneth_2003 said:More than just "wet or dry" you're very likely asking more about the physical geography of the region and the role of the underlying geology on surface conditions.HTownAg98 said:
There's been a lot of talk as to why the Russians have been able to make better progress in the south because it's drier and they aren't just restricted to the roads. How far north does this "dry line" extend? Does it run all the way to the south side of Kyiv, or does it stop somewhere, and Russian troops will be committed to the roads, just like they are in the north? Seems like you'd want to use that natural chokepoint to make a stand in the south.
I don't know the answers, and right now don't have time to search (sorry), but that's where I'd start!
The Ukrainians also don't have as many troops down south. The old saying "if you defend everywhere you defend nowhere" is true. I imagine they're letting the Russians take some ground there and concentrating their defense near Kiev and a few strategic points on the eastern front.
Remember the first and second Chechen wars where Putin rose to fame/infamy? Chechnya kicked Russia's ass(sort of) the first war and signed a ceasefire.
3 years later Russia came back with a vengeance and leveled almost the entirety of Chechnya.
The second Ukraine and Russia signs a ceasefire, Putin will start planning his second invasion. Ukraine and Zelensky knows this and has to make sure the terms must come as close as possible to deterring a second invasion.
3 years later Russia came back with a vengeance and leveled almost the entirety of Chechnya.
The second Ukraine and Russia signs a ceasefire, Putin will start planning his second invasion. Ukraine and Zelensky knows this and has to make sure the terms must come as close as possible to deterring a second invasion.
Yeah, I'm trying to imagine a foreign invading force trying to lock down the Piney Woods with a native, massively armed citizenry that knows the geography.MouthBQ98 said:
Imagine trying to "control" Texas with only a couple of hundred thousand soldiers. They'd be spread so thin as to be almost useless, and would be substantially preoccupied just controlling major urban areas. Russia faces that same magnitude of challenge
Good luck.
Imagine trying to control a Texas armed with thousands of MANPADs and Anti-tank missiles with a force that size, using a green conscript army.MouthBQ98 said:
Imagine trying to "control" Texas with only a couple of hundred thousand soldiers. They'd be spread so thin as to be almost useless, and would be substantially preoccupied just controlling major urban areas. Russia faces that same magnitude of challenge
Eliminatus said:
I would be wary of basing all of your judgment based just off the daily maps. As with most things in life in only tells part of the story. We don't know the full context and that is huge. The Ukes have had great success in keeping their unit composition and location out of the limelight and that is crucial.
We know one thing for absolute certainty. Russia has slowed and even bogged down in certain areas. The Ukes know this. Strategically, their greatest ally now is time I believe. I would not be surprised if they are using the tried and true tactic of denying the enemy in areas of Ukraine. This is where you literally refuse active engagement but stay in contact close enough to lure the enemy. It is an ancient tactic and is used to reshape battlelines to your advantage and extend the enemy position and make them vulnerable elsewhere. The Ukes don't have to have a static fight for every single inch of Ukraine right now and they would be dumb to do so. They have space and depth they can trade freely for time and tactical advantage right now. The northern fight is a little more static and traditional I think though but in general getting pinned down in traditional set piece battles would not favor the Ukes. At all. Their nation exists as long as there is an organized armed force surviving. Deny the enemy, live to fight tomorrow, and make the enemy come to you. Burning fuel and exhausting men and material through attrition and wear. Keep the Russians honest with partisans but preserve your army composition for the battles that really matter.
The other thing is that "control" of land does not have nearly the weight as it used to with these kinds of mech heavy mobile warfare. A Russian column controls a road. Cool. They won't 12 hours later when they move on. I don't think the Russians committed nearly the amount of infantry they would need to truly maintain a presence in an area. Though that may be different in the south now.
Just food for thought. Not saying that is definitely what is happening, but it certainly could be and would invalidate a lot of first hot takes based solely off of looking at a map. Context is king and we simply don't have all of it right now.
according to Zerohedge reporting from New York-
the Russians have until April 15 to avoid defaulting on their government bonds. Currently they are unable to make the payments.
Russian Default
if that is correct, then the Ukes have to hold out for another 5 weeks.
LMCane said:1. The Russians would then be able to hold those Uke citizens as pawns/hostagesIrish 2.0 said:Why the **** would you want the refugees take trains to oppressor???RebelE Infantry said:#UPDATE Ukraine dismissed Moscow's offer to create humanitarian corridors from the bombarded cities of #Kharkiv, #Kyiv, #Mariupol and #Sumy on Monday after it emerged that exit routes would lead refugees into Russia or Belarus https://t.co/BhjFT6QzVh pic.twitter.com/MBnPzxE2Mf
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 7, 2022
Not a good look forUkraineRUSSIA
**** worked out great for the Jews.
2. any males would be taken off the potential battlefield
Putin and his regime don't want anyone who has witnessed war crimes to talk. What better way to silence them than to have them under Russia's control or make them disappear
TheCougarHunter said:Kenneth_2003 said:More than just "wet or dry" you're very likely asking more about the physical geography of the region and the role of the underlying geology on surface conditions.HTownAg98 said:
There's been a lot of talk as to why the Russians have been able to make better progress in the south because it's drier and they aren't just restricted to the roads. How far north does this "dry line" extend? Does it run all the way to the south side of Kyiv, or does it stop somewhere, and Russian troops will be committed to the roads, just like they are in the north? Seems like you'd want to use that natural chokepoint to make a stand in the south.
I don't know the answers, and right now don't have time to search (sorry), but that's where I'd start!
The Ukrainians also don't have as many troops down south. The old saying "if you defend everywhere you defend nowhere" is true. I imagine they're letting the Russians take some ground there and concentrating their defense near Kiev and a few strategic points on the eastern front.
From everything I've seen, the Ukrainian army had 45,000 some-odd of their best troops in the Donbas area. Granted it's very difficult to get an accurate picture of UKR troop disposition but I haven't see much to dispute this.
From that link.Quote:
Amid widespread concerns of cascading Russian defaults, Gazprom creditors breathed a sigh of relief this morning on the news that the Russian energy giant had made a coupon payment on bonds due today. According to Bloomberg, some holders of a $1.3 billion Gazprom PJSC bond due Monday said they received payment in dollars, even after Russian President Vladimir Putin gave issuers the option of repaying foreign-currency debt in rubles.News of the coupon payment sent the price of the bond sharply higher after crashing to 50% of par last week and was repaid at par today.Quote:
Bondholders said they received cash to pay off the bonds Monday, according to the people with knowledge of the payments, who declined to be identified because they aren't authorized to speak publicly about the matter.
Is there a loophole? Did they have that much stashed in dollars somewhere?
It's not just "dry terrain"HTownAg98 said:
There's been a lot of talk as to why the Russians have been able to make better progress in the south because it's drier and they aren't just restricted to the roads. How far north does this "dry line" extend? Does it run all the way to the south side of Kyiv, or does it stop somewhere, and Russian troops will be committed to the roads, just like they are in the north? Seems like you'd want to use that natural chokepoint to make a stand in the south.
look at the map of Ukraine and what the territory is north of Kyiv
the Russian force was heading due south from staging grounds in Belarus, through a massive Pripyet Marsh that bedeviled the Nazis in WWII. and then there is the Dneiper river on one side, and on the other side the Ukes flooded some plains from the Dnipro river.
so the Russians are boxed into one major north/south artery with that 40 mile convoy unable to deploy
in the south, there is a larger road network and more open terrain and not as many Uke defenders. It's similar to how the US Army was pinned down for 6 weeks after DDay in bocage country, but was eventually able to breakout from Normandy across all of France.
What would be the consequences of Russian default?
Ukraine lost its air force…
Wait, they have about 50% of their air force left
Today: Ukraine has a vast majority of their air force left
Hmmmm
Wait, they have about 50% of their air force left
Today: Ukraine has a vast majority of their air force left
Hmmmm
.
I recall Russia has a large sovereign debt payment to make in or around the 15th. I believe such payments were not included with any SWIFT or Swiss exclusions. We shall see if they make due. Though not sovereign, i believe Rosneft skipped a payment, only Gasprom has. Please correct me if i am off.
*Beware the ides of March*
*Beware the ides of March*
UK MOD update: Russia limiting domestic social media access pic.twitter.com/SBaHrBZUQ3
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 7, 2022
If support is failing at home, how much longer can they go?
War is Peace
Freedom is Slavery
Ignorance is Strength
#Ukraine: Spanish C90-CR (M3.5) disposable rocket-propelled grenade launchers are already delivered to Ukraine. It is claimed, these launchers are being distributed between the Territorial Defense forces. pic.twitter.com/xtXkpgjCXp
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 7, 2022
Teddy KGB said:UK MOD update: Russia limiting domestic social media access pic.twitter.com/SBaHrBZUQ3
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 7, 2022
If support is failing at home, how much longer can they go?
How much space is in Siberia?
Putin will put down any uprising as harshly as he is bombing Ukrainian cities. I think eventually it might matter but not for a long time from today
Really well stated layout of this conflict from a retired army general's standpoint who has been a security consultant to Ukraine since 2016:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/06/opinions/bergen-mike-repass-putin-invasion/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/06/opinions/bergen-mike-repass-putin-invasion/index.html
Get Off My Lawn said:There's a reason that you win Chess by capturing the king. The idea that control of the roads isn't important ignores the capture-the-flag nature of warfare. You don't need the hearts of farmers in a remote town in order to win - you need to get to (and control) the critical political and utility infrastructure. Biden doesn't care if rednecks hate him as long as they don't storm DC. Putin won't care what Ukrainians think of him as long as they aren't an impediment to his siege.LMCane said:VaultingChemist said:Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022
that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.
Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.
the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.
Getoffmylawn is correct.
aside from political factors, actual military movements are guided much more by the available road networks and the ability to move your forces on the flanks or rear of the enemy. the USA never controlled every city in France, or in Iraq but was still able to defeat the Werhmacht. because they were able to use a road network to outflank every defensive position and trap enemy detachments in a pocket.
the russians are obviously trying to do the same thing by moving up the Dnieper river valley, cutting off the eastern front from the rest of the country and surrounding Kyiv from the south.
it's really a battle now for which side can hang on over the next 6 weeks and which side cracks first -from either being surrounded on the battlefield, or having their economy and supply logistics capabilities completely fractured.
#Ukraine: The practical implementation of tactics to destroy supplies - a Russian convoy of 6 fuel trucks was destroyed near Pryluky, #Chernihiv Oblast. pic.twitter.com/B8ftEklMl2
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 7, 2022
Good, good.
🛑🛑🛑 More abandoned #Putin regime terrorists equipment that was seized by the Mykolayiv Territorial Defense Units in the Mykolayiv region today #Ukraine #Russia pic.twitter.com/xsxi61QAbw
— Слава Україні🇺🇦 (@ignis_fatum) March 7, 2022
LMCane said:Get Off My Lawn said:There's a reason that you win Chess by capturing the king. The idea that control of the roads isn't important ignores the capture-the-flag nature of warfare. You don't need the hearts of farmers in a remote town in order to win - you need to get to (and control) the critical political and utility infrastructure. Biden doesn't care if rednecks hate him as long as they don't storm DC. Putin won't care what Ukrainians think of him as long as they aren't an impediment to his siege.LMCane said:VaultingChemist said:Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022
that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.
Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.
the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.
Getoffmylawn is correct.
aside from political factors, actual military movements are guided much more by the available road networks and the ability to move your forces on the flanks or rear of the enemy. the USA never controlled every city in France, or in Iraq but was still able to defeat the Werhmacht. because they were able to use a road network to outflank every defensive position and trap enemy detachments in a pocket.
the russians are obviously trying to do the same thing by moving up the Dnieper river valley, cutting off the eastern front from the rest of the country and surrounding Kyiv from the south.
it's really a battle now for which side can hang on over the next 6 weeks and which side cracks first -from either being surrounded on the battlefield, or having their economy and supply logistics capabilities completely fractured.
That's a good plan until the urban Ukrainian people fought back. Now Russia is going for encirclements which is going to require taking smaller communities and dealing with much longer fronts.
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