LMCane said:

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BD88 said:

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Many will laugh at this “equipment” being sent in by #Russia, but think again.

I see vehicle assets that are hard to ID as military ones. It’ll be just as easy for Russian soldiers to put on civvies and conduct saboteur ops..#Ukraine #UkraineRussianWar pic.twitter.com/95wju0u3No

— Countermeasure (@thecmeasure) March 6, 2022

Similar to what was posted earlier…

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whoever made that point on Twitter is forgetting a few important things- if the Russians take his advice they will be captured and shot as spies/sabateurs

and the fact that there is a nice big "Z" painted on the sides of the vehicles might just give away the game.

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Could be an attempt to hide movements from satellite surveillance. As long as they don't drive in a caravan, it would be harder to track.

I think the most simple answer applies. The Russians have lost so many military transport trucks and their supply situation is so poor that they have started commandeering commercial trucks to try and move supplies.

Ag In Ok said:

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BD88 said:

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Many will laugh at this “equipment” being sent in by #Russia, but think again.

I see vehicle assets that are hard to ID as military ones. It’ll be just as easy for Russian soldiers to put on civvies and conduct saboteur ops..#Ukraine #UkraineRussianWar pic.twitter.com/95wju0u3No

— Countermeasure (@thecmeasure) March 6, 2022

Similar to what was posted earlier…

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If this is the strength of the committed force, they are either holding an abundance in reserve fearing a nato response or we can lop off 10-20% from all inventory numbers. They must believe they have all the guns they need for this.
Glad we are quiet on observed Russian troop strengths near Poland and the Baltic's. And it must have been a pain in the ass to place more troops up at the Finnish border.

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Who was it many pages back (Thursday night I think?) that was saying that by this weekend the Russian economy would be flat-lining? If the Russian war machine was only geared up for maintenance replacements, and not producing gear at wartime rates then I wonder if it is indeed possible that they are running woefully low on inventory. Sanctions will already be hitting hard. Even if you manufacture X in country if a single part is sourced from a sanction country they're hosed.

Fitch said:

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Fitch said:

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SIAP

[That was way too big. -Staff]

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Then how would you prefer it posted?

I took the text out of every tweet to avoid loading and the translated letter fits the subject specifically.

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Post the first one with maybe a link to the unroll and maybe a second or third tweet with a key part and say read the whole thing but here is the tldr.

For a long series of Tweets put the first link in this website and it will give you a link to easily read the entire thing.

https://threadreaderapp.com/

TChaney said:

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For a long series of Tweets put the first link in this website and it will give you a link to easily read the entire thing.

https://threadreaderapp.com/

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Thanks.

Full length translated letter unrolled here:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500301348780199937.html

Rossticus said:

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▫️Kiev'de bulunan ABD Ordusu Özel Kuvvetleri askerlerinin kurduğu “Forward Observations Grubu”ndan yeni fotoğraflar. pic.twitter.com/6IAy01Z3YB

— Sinan (@5inan_) March 6, 2022

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Now we have better confirmation of what those guys are doing…

I follow this gentleman on YouTube for his aviation content.

In this video he discusses in detail the affect international sanctions will have on the Russian civil aviation industry. It's interesting because the carry-over to the military supply chains is likely very similar. If just one critical part of a piece of military hardware is imported you can't build it or repair it. Same then goes up the chain, if maintenance items at the plant that builds/repairs the equipment was imported the factory will grind to a halt.

I highly doubt those guys are there right now and they sure as **** wouldn't be wearing anything identifying them as Americans. Those pictures are old I believe

Ag8556 said:

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I think the most simple answer applies. The Russians have lost so many military transport trucks and their supply situation is so poor that they have started commandeering commercial trucks to try and move supplies.

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Agree. So many still seem to think of Russia as some powerful boogie man. "They haven't sent in their A team"..."these civilian trucks must have a secret, nefarious purpose".

Robk said:

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March 6 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing funds to be seized from the bank accounts of officials if the sum of the deposits exceeded their declared incomes over three years and was shown to be illegal, state television said on Sunday.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 6, 2022

Lots of personel are going to look to GTFO of Russia if their accounts are higher than they should be.

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To me, this reads that Putin is aware of significant, profitable corruption and wants to take back what was skimmed off the top. This is possibly a desperate effort to finance the war.

Signs the economic war is taking its toll?

Edit: another thought: could this be, intentional or not, the start of a post-mortem to explain Russia's significant logistics/supply failures?

Waffledynamics said:

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Robk said:

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March 6 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing funds to be seized from the bank accounts of officials if the sum of the deposits exceeded their declared incomes over three years and was shown to be illegal, state television said on Sunday.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 6, 2022

Lots of personel are going to look to GTFO of Russia if their accounts are higher than they should be.

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To me, this reads that Putin is aware of significant, profitable corruption and wants to take back what was skimmed off the top. This is possibly a desperate effort to finance the war.

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Read it the same way. Find out people who have been selling military assets. The confiscated "extra money" is the least of their problems. They might be tasked with delivering 5 gallon gas tanks to the front of the line by hand and foot.

Fitch said:

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Fitch said:

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SIAP

[That was way too big. -Staff]

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Then how would you prefer it posted?

I took the text out of every tweet to avoid loading and the translated letter fits the subject specifically.

Hope everyone enjoys clicking through nearly 70 tweets to get to the full length translated letter (if you even can because of Twitter's scrolling policy).

Last night, an alleged FSB whistle-blower letter was published that damned Russia's military performance in Ukraine and predicted a disaster for the RU in the next weeks and months. I wasn't sure if it was authentic - as Ukraine had previously leaked fake FSB letters as psy-ops.

— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 5, 2022

🧵My translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The full text is over 2000 words. This is a highly insightful look behind the curtain - covers many subjects.

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) March 6, 2022

Link to full text in non-Twitter here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500301348780199937.html

[The quote at the end of your post may have been the issue with the size of your post. Thank you. -Staff]

Staff, I'm not going to debate but that was for ease of access to the multitude of people that don't have access to Twitter who would have otherwise been inaccessible. Link posted above corrects this issue. /end topic

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Great info. Thanks. The most important piece of the thread. No ONE person can fire nuclear weapons. Multiple people are involved. And not all of them are crazed lunatics like Putin!

Ag related……if Putin just controlled areas east of the Dneiper, he would have roughly 50% of Ukrainian wheat production plus oil resources from northeast Ukraine.

Also relevant: pic.twitter.com/SMCrAfvRml

— Robert Höglund (@RobertHoglund) March 5, 2022

Ag8556 said:

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You would think the Russians would be pouring troops into the Southern sector to drive right up the western side of the Dnieper. The Russian forces around Kiev would keep a large portion of Ukrainian troops pinned in the north while the southern Russian movement from the south forces the Ukrainians to retreat from the east or risk having a large portion of their army encircled.

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Based on my amateur eyes, it seems as though the Ukrainian pushbacks in Kherson and Mykolaiv have been stalling the Russians in the South. I base this off of the reports of intense fighting in those areas, and the fact that the maps I've seen haven't really been changing much since the Russians came in and really started giving it to Kherson, Mykolaiv, Melitopol, and other areas down in that direction.

Please someone correct me if I'm wrong, but it doesn't seem like the red area North of Crimea has really grown or shrunk much since this map was posted on The BBC a couple of days ago. They've gotten to Zaporizhzhia, but not much else.

Imagine the number of possible military, economic, and political scenarios being analyzed by every worldwide intel agency at this moment. Fast forward about 90 days and try to imagine the landscape on June 1, 2022. Baring a black swan event, a few things seem most likely:

• Sanctions hold and Russia's economy is a train wreck.
• Ukrainian cities fall under brutal Russian occupation.
• Russian losses continue with effective Ukrainian insurgency.
• Ratline for military supplies to insurgency continues.

Irish 2.0 said:

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I highly doubt those guys are there right now and they sure as **** wouldn't be wearing anything identifying them as Americans. Those pictures are old I believe

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Not saying those are active .mil. The FO group of guys is former/retired.

They may have heeded the call for foreign support. When did we start supplying the pictured munitions?

bkag9824 said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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I highly doubt those guys are there right now and they sure as **** wouldn't be wearing anything identifying them as Americans. Those pictures are old I believe

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Not saying those are active .mil. The FO group of guys is former/retired.

They may have heeded the call for foreign support. When did we start supplying the pictured munitions?

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. The should abunch of Royal Marines that were Afghan vets. They were waiting all of their giddy up.

I think the Russian military has had a political directive to take Kiev as soon as possible. I think they have been burning through the bulk of their ordinance trying to make it happen. They started this whole thing off with too few troops and horrible supply/logistics assumptions. The Ukrainians have stopped them and are bleeding them out.

I think the Russians don't have enough troops/ordinance in the south for a large breakthrough. It looks like the intention of the southern front was to secure the Black Sea coast and limit the redeployment of Ukrainian forces to the north and east.

If the ground is really in decent shape in the south, and the road network is much more expansive, the Russians should be making the south their main focus for new troops and material. I bet the problem is that Putin still wants the main focus on Kiev and won't let his military pivot or the military command is too scared of Putin to recommend the pivot.

Quote:

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If the ground is really in decent shape in the south, and the road network is much more expansive, the Russians should be making the south their main focus for new troops and material. I bet the problem is that Putin still wants the main focus on Kiev and won't let his military pivot or the military command is too scared of Putin to recommend the pivot.

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Which new troops and materiel? From where? Their eastern flank with China? Is that smart to expose that flank right now? Risk having the vast majority of his entire military being encircled and cut off like that?

Exactly that. They have to redeploy troops from all over Russia. They are not going to be attacked by any of their neighbors because of the nuclear deployment.

They either go all in to fully take Ukraine or try to negotiate a ceasefire where the separatist areas are independent or folded into Russia. Putin's starting position will be that he gets to keep any territory already taken.

The West will have to maintain all of the sanctions to pressure Putin to withdraw. We go back to treating Russia as the old USSR until the dictatorship ends.

aggiehawg said:

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Robk said:

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March 6 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing funds to be seized from the bank accounts of officials if the sum of the deposits exceeded their declared incomes over three years and was shown to be illegal, state television said on Sunday.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 6, 2022

Lots of personel are going to look to GTFO of Russia if their accounts are higher than they should be.

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Hehehe!

Looks like Putin has figured out he has been Saddamed. His military has been stealing for years while filing false reports of "ghost" weapons and military unit readiness.

And from the long threadreader from the FSB (?) analyst, Putin cannot even be sure his nuke stock has been properly maintained and still function as designed.

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And as if on queue, the Kremlin begins advertising Ukrainian attempts to build a dirty bomb.

Curious if anyone knows definitively if fissile material can be traced back to the specific reactor and days it was produced? Popular media would lead one to assume that's the case - in which case how could something like that even be faked? Maybe why they changed the tactic. . .

Russia, without evidence, says Ukraine making nuclear "dirty bomb" https://t.co/GWKb4jKqQ9 pic.twitter.com/QLm1tiRpHC

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 6, 2022

After randomly claiming Ukraine was working on a nuclear weapon (in the leakiest of countries), now Russia 's @mod_russia comes up with something even less plausible: they "found evidence" Ukraine and USA wee developing weaponized plague bacteria at a super secret lab near Kyiv.

— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 6, 2022