Based on reports the main bridge out of Mykolaiv is rigged to blow. https://t.co/UfgNyXOZbD pic.twitter.com/m2hlR4QIrh

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 4, 2022

rathAG05 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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LostInLA07 said:

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That's already happening. O&G is their last source of outside cash but the impact to everyday Russians from the current sanctions will be substantial, particularly in the cities where many of their citizens are accustomed to daily interaction with western people, products and tech.

The iPhone they are currently holding is likely the last one they will ever have. Most of their apps don't work anymore. Eventually the russian stock market will have to reopen and anyone with capital in that market is going to take crushing losses that they will likely never recover from.

Frankly, the biggest risk here is that we inadvertently re-create a post WW1 Germany and end up with a population in Russia that hates us because of the sanctions imposed by the west. They'll kick out Putin but who knows what the sentiment will be when they are figuring out who the replacement will be. It could be another militaristic nationalist who rallies a desperate and humiliated population.

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I'm afraid this is exactly what we're hurtling headlong towards and no one seems to be interested in talking about it. Private corporations are going far beyond the official sanctions and only making this even more likely.

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Yeah, but what choice does the global community have? If Putin is unwilling to relent and pull out, and we are unwilling to directly engage, I don't see another option. We can't blame ourselves for the actions of an evil dictator. This totally sucks, but what he is doing is devastating.

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You pressure Zelensky to come to the table for a negotiated peace to end a war he can't possibly win.

I smell a true uprising in Russia. You've blocked the youths way of communicating to the outside world.

NEW: This video shows clear damage from heavy weapons on the elevated walkways between the reactor buildings at Zaporizhzhya NPP. This is well inside the plant perimeter. pic.twitter.com/dWcsuhYoYf

— Geoff Brumfiel (@gbrumfiel) March 4, 2022

wangus12 said:

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Mule said:

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aggiehawg said:

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LostInLA07 said:

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That's already happening. O&G is their last source of outside cash but the impact to everyday Russians from the current sanctions will be substantial, particularly in the cities where many of their citizens are accustomed to daily interaction with western people, products and tech.

The iPhone they are currently holding is likely the last one they will ever have. Most of their apps don't work anymore. Eventually the russian stock market will have to reopen and anyone with capital in that market is going to take crushing losses that they will likely never recover from.

Frankly, the biggest risk here is that we inadvertently re-create a post WW1 Germany and end up with a population in Russia that hates us because of the sanctions imposed by the west. They'll kick out Putin but who knows what the sentiment will be when they are figuring out who the replacement will be. It could be another militaristic nationalist who rallies a desperate and humiliated population.

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Or there is further fractioning into more independent sovereign states like what happened the last time?

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We (the West) missed our opportunity when Gorbachev did the right thing and brought the communist experiment to an end. We did not support (get involved enough) to ensure that democratic rule was being established on as many levels as possible. The old cronies and Putin stepped into the power vacuum and the rest is history.

We may get a second chance. Let's see how this plays out and demand more from our leaders. The world may not survive Putin 2.0 let alone Putin 1.0.

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I will say I think the younger Russian has much more exposure to to the West via technology. We do have a chance if Putin is ousted

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Part of the problem is Microsoft just pulled out of Russia. Other tech companies have as well. Soon that tech we could each out to the younger generation will stop working and you lose that avenue or communication.

BusterAg said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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Buyer Finally Emerges For Russian Oil Offered At A Record $28 Discount https://t.co/3nHMNTwnRF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 4, 2022

Russia having to sell their oil at massive discount to get it out

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The American people need to boycott Shell gasoline stations.

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Actually, this is a good thing. Forcing them to sell at steep discounts (losing the large profit they were expecting) leads to less production from Russia if the profit margin isn't there. Costs more to extract that they can get on the market.

When we were energy independent the prices went way down but ours was by oversupply. Their discounts are necessary to move any product at all. Big difference.

Google maps shows a fairly significant fighter base just east of Mykolaiv. I wonder how it's doing

JobSecurity said:

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BREAKING - Russia has blocked Twitter, Interfax says

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 4, 2022

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Reddit, telegram, Whatsapp next? They are going full North Korea and isolating populace from all outside information.

Has the eastern Uke army pushed to cross to the western bank of the DNeiper river?

This is probably a stupid question for you guys who really know this stuff, but I was wondering with how effective these Javalins seem to be in fighting tanks, are tanks basically obsolete now?

Kenneth_2003 said:

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TheEternalPessimist said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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GAC06 said:

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I don't necessarily doubt they've killed 7,000 Russians but I definitely doubt they took real pictures of 7,000 dead Russian soldiers

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7000 pictures of dead Russian soldiers <> pictures of 7000 dead Russian soldiers

Could be many pictures of the sane scene from different angles.

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Great point.

But it's quite clear Russia military is paying a heavy price in casualties.

I think minimum 5000+ casualties on low side. < 10,000 high side.

Will be catastrophic to morale and public support back home --- assuming the truth is revealed and made known to Russian people.

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How do you silence 10,000 mammas?
The count isn't done going up either

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It's quiet in Siberia

Russian commanders moving further forward to get more control and impetus behind operations which have, in some cases, badly stalled. Those commanders are trying to impose their own personality on the battlefield but this in turn, is placing them at greater risk, w. officials say

— Gordon Corera (@gordoncorera) March 4, 2022

Quote:

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Fragilities in systems,combined with remarkable Ukrainian resistance,has shocked Russian commanders, western officials say, and is having a psychological impact on Russian troops because of ferocity of the fight. But for all the problems, they are likely to adapt,say w. officials

Just as Russia's military plans have faltered, so have some of the FSB's plans for covert action and political change. And just as military is moving to more indiscriminate attacks, there are concerns that occupation of cities will see heavier repression.

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bangobango said:

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This is probably a stupid question for you guys who really know this stuff, but I was wondering with how effective these Javalins seem to be in fighting tanks, are tanks basically obsolete now?

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Short answer: Extremely.

There's enough video and images on Twitter, Reddit, and Telegram showing the aftermath of Javelins and NLAWS decimating Russian columns.

bangobango said:

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This is probably a stupid question for you guys who really know this stuff, but I was wondering with how effective these Javalins seem to be in fighting tanks, are tanks basically obsolete now?

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I don't have any first hand knowledge so i'm open to correction, but from keeping up with all of these discussions and reading from those who do, my takeaway is that it wouldn't seem that tanks are necessarily obsolete now, its more that the addition of these highly portable and effective anti armor weapons to the battle field in mass really steps up the importance of armored columns having proper infantry protection.

bangobango said:

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This is probably a stupid question for you guys who really know this stuff, but I was wondering with how effective these Javalins seem to be in fighting tanks, is symmetrical warfare basically obsolete now?

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fify

RebelE Infantry said:

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rathAG05 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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LostInLA07 said:

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That's already happening. O&G is their last source of outside cash but the impact to everyday Russians from the current sanctions will be substantial, particularly in the cities where many of their citizens are accustomed to daily interaction with western people, products and tech.

The iPhone they are currently holding is likely the last one they will ever have. Most of their apps don't work anymore. Eventually the russian stock market will have to reopen and anyone with capital in that market is going to take crushing losses that they will likely never recover from.

Frankly, the biggest risk here is that we inadvertently re-create a post WW1 Germany and end up with a population in Russia that hates us because of the sanctions imposed by the west. They'll kick out Putin but who knows what the sentiment will be when they are figuring out who the replacement will be. It could be another militaristic nationalist who rallies a desperate and humiliated population.

---

I'm afraid this is exactly what we're hurtling headlong towards and no one seems to be interested in talking about it. Private corporations are going far beyond the official sanctions and only making this even more likely.

---

Yeah, but what choice does the global community have? If Putin is unwilling to relent and pull out, and we are unwilling to directly engage, I don't see another option. We can't blame ourselves for the actions of an evil dictator. This totally sucks, but what he is doing is devastating.

---

You pressure Zelensky to come to the table for a negotiated peace to end a war he can't possibly win.

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And how do you do that? How do you apply more pressure on him than what he is dealing with already? That man is ready to die to defend his country and its freedom.

Quote:

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Is this just throwing stuff on the wall time? You are seeing a war in real time, where Russia is unprepared. Please tell me an instance where human nature you throw in the "B" team.

As for DOD logistics, the Russian's couldn't hold our jock.

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I guess it's not common knowledge, so let me explain it to you. During the cold war the west had intel on the quality of equipment in case things got hot. All the satellite states had 3rd and 4rh rate equipment, and tons of it. They saved their best equipment (tanks/jets) for Russia proper.

The idea behind this is that when nato invades, nato will send their best, just like you suggest. The best will grind through substandard equipment. They will put thousands of miles and hours on the shiny new equipment, causing erosion and maintenance, and by the time the allies get to Russia, the Soviets unleash fresh equipment that was tactically comparable, but with less wear.

I was not surprised when we saw 30year old tanks and trucks with half a tank of gas being thrown at Ukraine. Its consistent with their m.o.

Plus you have to remember Russians play chess from age 5. Do you lead with a rook, or with a pawn? Pawns, in this war, probe enemy positions, flush them out, Ukrainians throw the kitchen sink at the pawns, then a queen shows up and they are all fked.

aggiehawg said:

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BusterAg said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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Buyer Finally Emerges For Russian Oil Offered At A Record $28 Discount https://t.co/3nHMNTwnRF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 4, 2022

Russia having to sell their oil at massive discount to get it out

---

The American people need to boycott Shell gasoline stations.

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Actually, this is a good thing. Forcing them to sell at steep discounts (losing the large profit they were expecting) leads to less production from Russia if the profit margin isn't there. Costs more to extract that they can get on the market.

When we were energy independent the prices went way down but ours was by oversupply. Their discounts are necessary to move any product at all. Big difference.

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A $23 deduct at $110 does not dent their profits at all. Russia's break evens are probably well below $30/bbl, They are just fine at $80.

Now it is less money than would be expected for the possible war machine. But compared prices pre-conflict, the deduct isn't even that heavy.

BusterAg said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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Buyer Finally Emerges For Russian Oil Offered At A Record $28 Discount https://t.co/3nHMNTwnRF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 4, 2022

Russia having to sell their oil at massive discount to get it out

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The American people need to boycott Shell gasoline stations.

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Most of them aren't owned by Shell, they're owned by a local mom and pop and only the pumps are leased to a supplier that may have licensing to use the Shell brand name, but actual financial connection to Shell is little or none. Few things in real estate are more complex than gas stations and it is usually best to use whatever newer gas station (because newer ones have cleaner tanks) is most convenient and not think about it.

The Debt said:

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Quote:

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Is this just throwing stuff on the wall time? You are seeing a war in real time, where Russia is unprepared. Please tell me an instance where human nature you throw in the "B" team.

As for DOD logistics, the Russian's couldn't hold our jock.

---

I guess it's not common knowledge, so let me explain it to you. During the cold war the west had intel on the quality of equipment in case things got hot. All the satellite states had 3rd and 4rh rate equipment, and tons of it. They saved their best equipment (tanks/jets) for Russia proper.

The idea behind this is that when nato invades, nato will send their best, just like you suggest. The best will grind through substandard equipment. They will put thousands of miles and hours on the shiny new equipment, causing erosion and maintenance, and by the time the allies get to Russia, the Soviets unleash fresh equipment that was tactically comparable, but with less wear.

I was not surprised when we saw 30year old tanks and trucks with half a tank of gas being thrown at Ukraine. Its consistent with their m.o.

Plus you have to remember Russians play chess from age 5. Do you lead with a rook, or with a pawn? Pawns, in this war, probe enemy positions, flush them out, Ukrainians throw the kitchen sink at the pawns, then a queen shows up and they are all fked.

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Except they are using their newest stuff, and their elite units.

Ag In Ok said:

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Has the eastern Uke army pushed to cross to the western bank of the DNeiper river?

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I don't think so. I think they're still trying to hold advances and there are one's behind the lines hitting supply routes.

AggieLit said:

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BusterAg said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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Buyer Finally Emerges For Russian Oil Offered At A Record $28 Discount https://t.co/3nHMNTwnRF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 4, 2022

Russia having to sell their oil at massive discount to get it out

---

The American people need to boycott Shell gasoline stations.

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Most of them aren't owned by Shell, they're owned by a local mom and pop and only the pumps are leased to a supplier that may have licensing to use the Shell brand name, but actual financial connection to Shell is little or none. Few things in real estate are more complex than gas stations and it is usually best to use whatever newer gas station (because newer ones have cleaner tanks) is most convenient and not think about it.

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Shell owns a pretty good retail footprint in the US actually

I really hope the snipers are targeting officers