***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Waffledynamics
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Keegan99 said:

RingOfive said:

TRM said:


Less than a week in? I don't believe that. Propaganda.


Again, Rubio is on Senate Intel. If he's saying this, it's because the US has very good reason to believe it's true.


Or to want others to believe it is true.
RebelE Infantry
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Keegan99 said:

RingOfive said:

TRM said:


Less than a week in? I don't believe that. Propaganda.


Again, Rubio is on Senate Intel. If he's saying this, it's because the US has very good reason to believe it's true.


It's because the US has reason to want people to believe it's true. Actual truth is a whole other matter entirely to these people.

ETA- take for example the story of the two Il-76 transports full of paratroopers that were reported to have been shot down. Rubio was even talking about it. It's now obvious that it never happened.
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DTP02
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RingOfive said:

TRM said:


Less than a week in? I don't believe that. Propaganda.


You would expect them to hold a lot in reserve for potential conflicts with NATO or China where they would be much more needed. They can't easily refill their stockpiles, so it's not out of the question that they're getting close to what they had budgeted for the Ukraine offensive and are starting to greatly limit their use.
aggiehawg
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aeroag14 said:

Ferg said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html


JP Morgan says the Russian Economy will shrink 35% due to the invasion and sanctions
I believe that is in the ballpark of the great depression.
10% reduction in GDP year over year is a depression.
JB!98
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txags92 said:

End Of Message said:

I am by no means an expert, but watching this conflict, I completely agree.

Highly mobile/precision lethality weapons in urban areas is likely the future. That's probably obvious to many, but to guys like me that played RISK growing up, it's pretty eye opening.

Thank you to all those that keep our country safe; I can't imagine what it feels like to be this vulnerable as a country.
Once again, Tom Clancy was there 35 years ago in Red Storm Rising with an accurate prediction for this:

"Every time we break through," Major Sergetov observed quietly, "they slow us down and counterattack. This was not supposed to happen." "A splendid observation!" Alekseyev snarled, then regained his temper. "We expected that a breakthrough would have the same effect as in the last war against the Germans. The problem is these new light antitank missiles. Three men and a jeep"he even used the American title for it"can race along the road, set up, fire one or two missiles, be gone before we can react, then repeat the process a few hundred meters away. Defensive firepower was never so strong before, and we failed to appreciate how effectively a handful of rearguard troops can slow down an advancing column. Our security is based on movement"--Alekseyev explained the basic lesson from tank school"a mobile force under these conditions cannot afford to be slowed down. A simple breakthrough is not enough! We must blast a massive hole in their front and race at least twenty kilometers to be free of these roving missile-crews. Only then can we switch over to true mobile doctrine." "You say we cannot win?" Sergetov had begun to have his own doubts, but did not expect to hear them from his commander. "I say what I did four months ago, and I was correct: this campaign of ours has become a war of attrition. For the moment, technology has defeated the military art, ours and theirs. What we're doing now is seeing who runs out of men and arms first."
I mentioned Red Storm Rising as required reading many pages ago. One of my favorite books ever. I have probably read it 10 times. It is amazing how it correlates to today. I believe that in the absence of nukes, our battle against them on the seas, air, and land would be much the same as the book.
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Irish 2.0
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aggiehawg said:

aeroag14 said:

Ferg said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html


JP Morgan says the Russian Economy will shrink 35% due to the invasion and sanctions
I believe that is in the ballpark of the great depression.
10% reduction in GDP year over year is a depression.
Can't have a depression if they never open the stock market back up!
PDEMDHC
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aeroag14 said:

Ferg said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html


JP Morgan says the Russian Economy will shrink 35% due to the invasion and sanctions
I believe that is in the ballpark of the great depression.
Right about there or slightly worse.
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Keegan99 said:

RingOfive said:

TRM said:


Less than a week in? I don't believe that. Propaganda.


Again, Rubio is on Senate Intel. If he's saying this, it's because the US has very good reason to believe it's true.


Details matter. Pay very close attention to his words. THIS invasion.
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Irish 2.0
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Red Pear Realty said:

Keegan99 said:

RingOfive said:

TRM said:


Less than a week in? I don't believe that. Propaganda.


Again, Rubio is on Senate Intel. If he's saying this, it's because the US has very good reason to believe it's true.


Details matter. Pay very close attention to his words. THIS invasion.
Strong possibility they don't have as many guided missiles left as most thing. Russian commanders are notorious for selling assets and maintaining a paper tiger status.
GAC06
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RingOfive said:

TRM said:


Less than a week in? I don't believe that. Propaganda.


You should believe it. They don't have the quantity of high end stuff like we do. Also Rubio has been pretty dead on.
PDEMDHC
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Robert C. Christian said:

wangus12 said:

Jay Reimenschneider said:

Can we all agree on one thing? That this is the weirdest war ever fought?
Nah

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whisky_War
I will also add this entry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emu_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pig_War_(1859)

This guy did a video of both the Emu War and the Pig War. A pretty fun watch as an adult wanting to learn new things about history.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNIuvl7V8zACPpTmmNIqP2A

Jarrin' Jay
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I'd say right now Russia is fighting at about a 50% effort and are OK overall with the slow progress. It's not like this is Delaware and undefended. At some point they will commit to a total aerial assault and mass armour and infantry to take their objectives. That is when it is going to get ugly. It's only been a few days, not a few weeks. My guess is within 10-15 days Kyiv will fall.

Russia still loses in the long run, doubtful if they can hold it, there is NO end in sight for the sanctions, at some point Biden will stop the U.S. buying Russian oil, and Russia will be isolated save for Cuba, N. Korea, Venezuela, and China. China will continue to purchase loads of coal and oil but can that make up for the loss of energy exports to western Europe and the U.S.....

This is going to be Putin's downfall eventually. Russia cannot survive this economically in the long run and even in the near term it is going to be very problematic. Civil unrest is going to explode.
aggiehawg
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DTP02 said:

RingOfive said:

TRM said:


Less than a week in? I don't believe that. Propaganda.


You would expect them to hold a lot in reserve for potential conflicts with NATO or China where they would be much more needed.
Okay. Lets see what is the military's plate potentially here.

Will have a raging insurgency going on in an occupied Ukraine, martial law at home where the military is in control of the borders and all civilian agencies. And then a war with China or NATO? Martial law in Russia is essentially functioning like an occupation force in the whole of Russia.
txags92
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JB!98 said:

txags92 said:

End Of Message said:

I am by no means an expert, but watching this conflict, I completely agree.

Highly mobile/precision lethality weapons in urban areas is likely the future. That's probably obvious to many, but to guys like me that played RISK growing up, it's pretty eye opening.

Thank you to all those that keep our country safe; I can't imagine what it feels like to be this vulnerable as a country.
Once again, Tom Clancy was there 35 years ago in Red Storm Rising with an accurate prediction for this:

"Every time we break through," Major Sergetov observed quietly, "they slow us down and counterattack. This was not supposed to happen." "A splendid observation!" Alekseyev snarled, then regained his temper. "We expected that a breakthrough would have the same effect as in the last war against the Germans. The problem is these new light antitank missiles. Three men and a jeep"he even used the American title for it"can race along the road, set up, fire one or two missiles, be gone before we can react, then repeat the process a few hundred meters away. Defensive firepower was never so strong before, and we failed to appreciate how effectively a handful of rearguard troops can slow down an advancing column. Our security is based on movement"--Alekseyev explained the basic lesson from tank school"a mobile force under these conditions cannot afford to be slowed down. A simple breakthrough is not enough! We must blast a massive hole in their front and race at least twenty kilometers to be free of these roving missile-crews. Only then can we switch over to true mobile doctrine." "You say we cannot win?" Sergetov had begun to have his own doubts, but did not expect to hear them from his commander. "I say what I did four months ago, and I was correct: this campaign of ours has become a war of attrition. For the moment, technology has defeated the military art, ours and theirs. What we're doing now is seeing who runs out of men and arms first."
I mentioned Red Storm Rising as required reading many pages ago. One of my favorite books ever. I have probably read it 10 times. It is amazing how it correlates to today. I believe that in the absence of nukes, our battle against them on the seas, air, and land would be much the same as the book.
Yeah, I was talking on night 1 of this thing how similar the tactics the Russians were using sounded to the invasion of Iceland described in the book. The books description of bringing Spetznaz troops into Iceland via hovercraft and then taking the airport to allow the rest of the troops to fly in was what the real life Russians were trying to do at Hostomel with paratroopers on night 1. They had the IL-76s in the air and had to turn them around when the paratroopers couldn't hold the airport against the Ukrainians.

Clancy's discussion of the problems with sending fresh conscript troops against experienced career soldiers, traffic control problems, logistics issues, etc. have all been spot on so far.
ABATTBQ11
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Yukon Cornelius said:

1. According to Ukraine.
2. That's compared to US standards. Russia has a completely different threshold.

So to claim that it needs to be compared to Russia history.

And Iraq wasn't being supplied weapons by NATO either.

Just another thought. Historic would include all of history. How does it rate to a week into our invasion of Europe Ww2?


No on #1. Last US DoD estimate I saw was about 5-6k Russian KIA. Ukraine's estimate is around 9-10k. Even our estimate is roughly 5% of what they've committed. Russia has admitted 500 KIA, and it's confirmed Ukraine killed a major general. I think a number of 5-6k is very realistic all things considered, and the Ukrainians' number is far more realistic than Russia's. The Russians have also lost huge amounts of equipment. There can be no denying they've lost hundreds of vehicles based on the photographic evidence. There's no telling how many aircraft they've lost, but it's certainly not 0.

Based on loss rate and force committed, this is pretty much D-Day. Iraq wasn't being supplied by NATO, but insurgents were being supplied by Syria and Iran. Really it doesn't even matter though. The comparison is a moot point because all that matters is what this is costing Russia right now. What Iraq and Afghanistan cost us is irrelevant to their perception or assessment of how this is going.
TRM
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The Fall Guy
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Kill their soldiers as well. No mercy
Rosstafari
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DapperDanMan
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UTExan said:

Probably the best unbiased assessment of Russian tactics and future operations I have seen from a former infantryman:



That sounds like a very reasonable and accurate assessment. I hope he's wrong.
Slava Ukraini!
cctexagMD
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txags92 said:

End Of Message said:

I am by no means an expert, but watching this conflict, I completely agree.

Highly mobile/precision lethality weapons in urban areas is likely the future. That's probably obvious to many, but to guys like me that played RISK growing up, it's pretty eye opening.

Thank you to all those that keep our country safe; I can't imagine what it feels like to be this vulnerable as a country.
Once again, Tom Clancy was there 35 years ago in Red Storm Rising with an accurate prediction for this:

"Every time we break through," Major Sergetov observed quietly, "they slow us down and counterattack. This was not supposed to happen." "A splendid observation!" Alekseyev snarled, then regained his temper. "We expected that a breakthrough would have the same effect as in the last war against the Germans. The problem is these new light antitank missiles. Three men and a jeep"he even used the American title for it"can race along the road, set up, fire one or two missiles, be gone before we can react, then repeat the process a few hundred meters away. Defensive firepower was never so strong before, and we failed to appreciate how effectively a handful of rearguard troops can slow down an advancing column. Our security is based on movement"--Alekseyev explained the basic lesson from tank school"a mobile force under these conditions cannot afford to be slowed down. A simple breakthrough is not enough! We must blast a massive hole in their front and race at least twenty kilometers to be free of these roving missile-crews. Only then can we switch over to true mobile doctrine." "You say we cannot win?" Sergetov had begun to have his own doubts, but did not expect to hear them from his commander. "I say what I did four months ago, and I was correct: this campaign of ours has become a war of attrition. For the moment, technology has defeated the military art, ours and theirs. What we're doing now is seeing who runs out of men and arms first."
Woah.
This pretty much lines up exactly with UTexan's video.

They're able to send a 40km long convoy to set up outside Kiev because the Ukraine rear guard is still busy in the East chasing a bunch of conscripts around and blowing them up and posting about it on Twitter.

As far as the sanctions, why do you think Putin is warning about NATO getting more power and getting closer to his doorstep? It's because they could threaten Russia militarily while controlling it economically whenever the West decides it wants to "influence" what is going on in Russia. So as far as Russia is concerned, the sanctions are proving why it's going to war in the first place. To be free of outside control and influence of their country.

And say we are getting propaganda from whichever side.

How is it going to feel to a weak willed US and European public when they've heard for days about how Russia losing 5,000+ men is catastrophic and then sometime in the future we hear of 5k Ukrainian losses?
10k, 20k, etc.?
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Faustus
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https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/03/world/russia-ukraine

Quote:

. . .
Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said late Thursday that "a large number of Russian tanks and infantry" had entered the town next to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power complex and that infantry troops were "moving directly towards" the reactor site, largest in not only Ukraine but Europe.
. . .


aggiehawg
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Rosstafari said:


Okay I'll bite, which types of ordnance are taking the NATO level Russian tanks out?
ABATTBQ11
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Kind of surprised Ukraine didn't line cruise missiles with spent fuel and threaten Russia with dirty bombs.
benchmark
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FireAg said:

Propaganda-inflated numbers or not, it's impossible for anyone to argue that this has gone the way the Russians had expected, at this point…
Analogous to ... very few hunting or fishing trips are as expected - but the freezer is full at season's end.
MaroonStain
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oh no said:




Russia ran bounties on our troops in Iraq/Afghanistan then our "contractors" whipped their "contractors" in Syria. This is not a new game.
AgsMyDude
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RingOfive said:

TRM said:


Less than a week in? I don't believe that. Propaganda.


Remember the Russians thought the Ukrainians would just roll over so it shouldn't be a surprise at all that Russia could be getting close to what they expected. Not that they don't have more.
GAC06
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Russia may be setting up for a siege of Kiev now but it clearly wasn't the original plan. Sending their elite troops to seize the airfield at Hostomel debunks that.
TheCougarHunter
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aggiehawg said:

Rosstafari said:


Okay I'll bite, which types of ordnance are taking the NATO level Russian tanks out?


Javelin or K2A hellfire from a drone would do it…
SPSAg05
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May be kind of a dumb, nave, tin-foil hat kind of question, but are we sure that the Russians aren't leaving GPS trackers on all this equipment before they abandon it, to track where the military units are that recover it to use it?
GAC06
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aggiehawg said:

Rosstafari said:


Okay I'll bite, which types of ordnance are taking the NATO level Russian tanks out?


Same as the rest except that one appears to be abandoned not disabled or destroyed
aggiehawg
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Quote:

So as far as Russia is concerned, the sanctions are proving why it's going to war in the first place. To be free of outside control and influence of their country.
Welcome to globalism, Vlad. You wanted to be in the room for all of the trade talks. Wanted to be at the big boy table and do business with them.
aggiehawg
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GAC06 said:

aggiehawg said:

Rosstafari said:


Okay I'll bite, which types of ordnance are taking the NATO level Russian tanks out?


Same as the rest except that one appears to be abandoned not disabled or destroyed
Looks like it's pretty beat up to me. Are the tracks even still on?
GAC06
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It looks completely fine to me. Could have broken down though
ABATTBQ11
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Everyone in the US knows Ukrainian losses are going to be heavy. That's a given.

As far as NATO, other countries wouldn't be looking to join if Russia wasn't making land grabs every few years and massacring their neighbors. Russia doesn't want "outside influence" in its continual quest to retake land it controlled under the Soviet empire. They're only worried about NATO because they know they're the ****ty neighbor that no one likes and the HOA that is NATO would get pretty pissed at their continual fence moving.
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