Jay Reimenschneider said:

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Can we all agree on one thing? That this is the weirdest war ever fought?

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Well, it was a lot easier to follow when we all knew that we could just point and laugh at anything Baghdad Bob said. This one isn't as obvious.

The usage of the man portable AT and AA weapons is going to affect every war going forward.

With the amount of Stingers, etc. Entering Ukraine, Russia is never going to be able to fly (esp take off or land) safely.

Rossticus said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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Rossticus said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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I assume you're referring to the air assets. There's legitimate logistical and tactical problems with that. Flying out of a Polish air base full stocked and ready to rock would be problematic for all of NATO. I'm not sure how much radar coverage the Russians truly have, but I'd bet some money on there being Russian assets watching every single plane taking off from a NATO base in Eastern Europe right now and that would get reported.

As to other systems and equipment, despite some logistical hurdles getting AA systems in especially if they're of Soviet design or man portable systems is easier than handing out equipment. There's going to be some learning curves with western equipment. Time isn't necessarily on their side and equipping what we can with little to no training needed is really the best bad option we have right now.

There's basically three wars being waged right now: bullets/kinetic, economic through sanctions, and propaganda via social and traditional media.

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Mostly referring to APCs, other armor, self propelled artillery, rocket based artillery, anti-ship, etc. Stuff that the Ukes know, that could be rolled across into the border areas while they remain relatively secure and uncontested, that would increase the viability of their ground forces for a protracted period of resistance.

Of course that would require NATO assets to be stationed in any contributing country in order to temporarily fill the gap but I think the benefit far outweighs the risk and could allow Uke forces to exert enough additional pressure on the Russians to preclude their planned assault on Moldova, soften their existing lines near captured cities, etc.

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It's not just NATO assets that would need to be reallocated. Without looking at the available leftover Soviet assets that neighboring countries have, I'd guess that the cost of replacing this equipment and when they would be delivered would be a real concern for those countries. That's also assuming that this equipment is in a status that actually is operable and combat ready/deployable.

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Which is, again, why NATO should have been actively preparing instead of sitting on its ass and assuming Putin was going to negotiate and play nice. Nothin about Putin's prior excursions indicated that he wasn't willing, and he'd been conditioned to believe he'd be allowed to get away with it. Insanely naive and complacent on NATOs part not to prepare and do more to present a posture of active deterrence.

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This isn't a solely a U.S. problem though but at the moment we are essentially the military force of NATO. NATO members have to be willing to step up and put in the work to shore up their defense and make that happen. Several years of the The Bear sleeping in the east has led to complacency. Hopefully the rest of NATO steps up and will actually realize that military/defense spending and readiness have some correlation.

On Putin, I wouldn't say he's been conditioned. Calculated aggression and brutality is his game. He's just been holding onto the cards until he wanted to play them. The west just can't seem to understand what and who they're actually dealing with.

JW said:

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I don't know if it's much different other than being the first big social media war.

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Exactly. It's the first war where you have 18-22 year old soldiers who are using TikTok while in battle. Every citizen and soldier essentially has a camera in their pocket and we're seeing all kinds of stuff.

DannyDuberstein said:

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Keegan99 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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The only thing that needs to be understood is that russia has already declared war by invading a country without cause, and as we speak is destroying a country and their people without remorse. To not come to their defense in any way possible, even if it means sacrifice, is tragic in itself.

I clearly understand what a no fly zone is and that russia will have to chose go home(stay down) or risk retaliation, which they are already receiving from all other sorts of munitions donated from around the world.

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Your "sacrifice" is nuclear war, dude.

Ukrainians operating materiel from other nations is VERY different from NATO personnel shooting down Russian military aircraft.

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Seriously, i don't understand these people. Are they too young to have lived thru the cold war and don't understand being on the brink of nuclear war? Have we raised a generation that has no clue how close we've been before and how little it would take for it all to end?

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Clearly. I'm going to chalk some of these posts up to sheer ignorance of the strategic reality, current alliances, and of basic geography.

Faustus said:

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https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/03/world/russia-ukraine

Quote:

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. . .
Russia and Ukraine concluded the second of round of talks in Belarus, achieving little progress, but agreeing to deliver food and medicine to the areas of intense fighting and to establish "humanitarian corridors" to allow civilians to leave them. "Unfortunately, the results Ukraine needs are not yet achieved," said one of the Ukrainian representatives, Mikhailo Podolyak.
. . .

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Quote:

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. . .
Russian operations in northern Ukraine appeared to be stalled for a third day as the Kremlin sent more troops into the country, a senior defense official said Thursday morning, adding that Ukrainian forces may be attacking a convoy of Russian forces attempting to take the major northern cities of Kyiv, Chernihiv and Kharkiv.

The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, provided an update to reporters at the Pentagon of what the Defense Department has observed of Russian operations. The official said that Russia has now committed 90 percent of its more than 150,000-soldier invasion force inside Ukraine. On Wednesday morning, a senior defense official had placed that figure at 82 percent.
. . .
The Pentagon has not seen any significant amount of Russian forces moving toward the city of Odessa, an important port on the Black Sea, the official added. The airspace over Ukraine remains contested with Ukrainian warplanes and air defense weapons still intact and the Pentagon has observed more than 480 launches of Russian missiles of various types against targets in Ukraine.

Defense officials said that more than 230 of those missiles have been fired from mobile launchers inside Ukraine, with approximately 160 from inside Russia, 70 fired from inside Belarus and 10 launched from Russian warships in the Black Sea. The United States continues to provide anti-tank and air-defense weapons to Ukraine, the official said, declining to answer questions about the quantity and type of each.
. . .

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A satellite image released by Maxar Technologies on Monday showing a military convoy along a highway near Ivankiv in northern Ukraine.Credit...Maxar Technologies, via Associated Press

Maxar Technologies has been releasing great satellite images of Russian troop deployments.

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I may have missed an update but what about the ships and amphibious vehicles that were launched from Crimea that were headed to Odessa? Those end up somewhere else?

Solid update with footage.

YouBet said:

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DannyDuberstein said:

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Keegan99 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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The only thing that needs to be understood is that russia has already declared war by invading a country without cause, and as we speak is destroying a country and their people without remorse. To not come to their defense in any way possible, even if it means sacrifice, is tragic in itself.

I clearly understand what a no fly zone is and that russia will have to chose go home(stay down) or risk retaliation, which they are already receiving from all other sorts of munitions donated from around the world.

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Your "sacrifice" is nuclear war, dude.

Ukrainians operating materiel from other nations is VERY different from NATO personnel shooting down Russian military aircraft.

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Seriously, i don't understand these people. Are they too young to have lived thru the cold war and don't understand being on the brink of nuclear war? Have we raised a generation that has no clue how close we've been before and how little it would take for it all to end?

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Clearly. I'm going to chalk some of these posts up to sheer ignorance of the strategic reality, current alliances, and of basic geography.

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must be; if there is even a 1% chance your action causes a nuclear disaster you look for other options. Cost of being wrong on that 1% are too great to even imagine

YouBet said:

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Faustus said:

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https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/03/world/russia-ukraine

Quote:

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. . .
Russia and Ukraine concluded the second of round of talks in Belarus, achieving little progress, but agreeing to deliver food and medicine to the areas of intense fighting and to establish "humanitarian corridors" to allow civilians to leave them. "Unfortunately, the results Ukraine needs are not yet achieved," said one of the Ukrainian representatives, Mikhailo Podolyak.
. . .

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Quote:

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. . .
Russian operations in northern Ukraine appeared to be stalled for a third day as the Kremlin sent more troops into the country, a senior defense official said Thursday morning, adding that Ukrainian forces may be attacking a convoy of Russian forces attempting to take the major northern cities of Kyiv, Chernihiv and Kharkiv.

The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, provided an update to reporters at the Pentagon of what the Defense Department has observed of Russian operations. The official said that Russia has now committed 90 percent of its more than 150,000-soldier invasion force inside Ukraine. On Wednesday morning, a senior defense official had placed that figure at 82 percent.
. . .
The Pentagon has not seen any significant amount of Russian forces moving toward the city of Odessa, an important port on the Black Sea, the official added. The airspace over Ukraine remains contested with Ukrainian warplanes and air defense weapons still intact and the Pentagon has observed more than 480 launches of Russian missiles of various types against targets in Ukraine.

Defense officials said that more than 230 of those missiles have been fired from mobile launchers inside Ukraine, with approximately 160 from inside Russia, 70 fired from inside Belarus and 10 launched from Russian warships in the Black Sea. The United States continues to provide anti-tank and air-defense weapons to Ukraine, the official said, declining to answer questions about the quantity and type of each.
. . .

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A satellite image released by Maxar Technologies on Monday showing a military convoy along a highway near Ivankiv in northern Ukraine.Credit...Maxar Technologies, via Associated Press

Maxar Technologies has been releasing great satellite images of Russian troop deployments.

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I may have missed an update but what about the ships and amphibious vehicles that were launched from Crimea that were headed to Odessa? Those end up somewhere else?

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ARMADA

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/03/world/russia-ukraine

Quote:

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An information battle over Ukraine takes center stage

This week, Ukraine's ambassador to the United Nations, Sergiy Kyslytsya, read out before the General Assembly what he said were text messages a Russian soldier sent to his mother moments before he was killed. They were obtained, he said, by Ukrainian forces after the soldier died.

"Mama, I'm in Ukraine," the ambassador read. "There is a real war raging here. I'm afraid. We are bombing all of the cities together, even targeting civilians. We were told that they would welcome us and they are falling under our armored vehicles, throwing themselves under the wheels and not allowing us to pass. They call us fascists. Mama, this is so hard."

The messages read out under the global spotlight of a high-profile United Nations meeting offered a poignant reminder of the human cost of war. They also served as a potent example of how central the battle is for public opinion around the world in a lopsided war between Russia's military machine and a scrappy, increasingly better-armed Ukraine.

Both sides's efforts to influence the narrative and perception of the war are striking.

Ukrainian officials are using the reports and images on social media of Russian casualties to try to undercut the morale of the invading forces. President Vladimir V. Putin, meanwhile, has described the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky as "a band of drug addicts and neo-Nazis." And at least some Russian soldiers appear to have imbibed the misinformation emanating from the Kremlin that their invasion would be welcomed.

Ukraine's military, interior ministry and U.N. ambassador did not respond to requests for more information to help verify the authenticity of the messages read out at the United Nations.

Whatever their origins, the messages allude to an undeniable theme of the war: Fierce resistance by Ukrainian forces has denied Mr. Putin the quick and easy victory Russia appears to have anticipated, while some among Russia's young military force have been ill-prepared for battle and buffeted by bad morale.
. . .
For Mr. Putin, the rising death toll on the Russian side could undermine domestic support for his Ukrainian incursion. Russian memories are long and mothers of soldiers, in particular, American officials say, could easily hark back to the 15,000 troops killed when the Soviet Union invaded and occupied Afghanistan, or the thousands killed in Chechnya.

Mr. Putin has tried to counter assessments from Western officials that Russia was running into greater resistance than expected. But on Thursday, he acknowledged there had been losses, promising the families of the fallen a special payout of 5 million rubles, or nearly $50,000.
. . .

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The fate of the AN225 was discussed about 100 pages or so ago. It's confirmed destroyed.

The AN225 is confirmed gone pic.twitter.com/2YPlFCCcOT

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 3, 2022

Back to Kherson...

Lots of detail packed in this piece. w/@idreesali114 https://t.co/cmqCYMayic

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 3, 2022

Thanks.

Faustus said:

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https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/03/world/russia-ukraine

Quote:

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An information battle over Ukraine takes center stage

This week, Ukraine's ambassador to the United Nations, Sergiy Kyslytsya, read out before the General Assembly what he said were text messages a Russian soldier sent to his mother moments before he was killed. They were obtained, he said, by Ukrainian forces after the soldier died.

"Mama, I'm in Ukraine," the ambassador read. "There is a real war raging here. I'm afraid. We are bombing all of the cities together, even targeting civilians. We were told that they would welcome us and they are falling under our armored vehicles, throwing themselves under the wheels and not allowing us to pass. They call us fascists. Mama, this is so hard."

The messages read out under the global spotlight of a high-profile United Nations meeting offered a poignant reminder of the human cost of war. They also served as a potent example of how central the battle is for public opinion around the world in a lopsided war between Russia's military machine and a scrappy, increasingly better-armed Ukraine.

Both sides's efforts to influence the narrative and perception of the war are striking.

Ukrainian officials are using the reports and images on social media of Russian casualties to try to undercut the morale of the invading forces. President Vladimir V. Putin, meanwhile, has described the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky as "a band of drug addicts and neo-Nazis." And at least some Russian soldiers appear to have imbibed the misinformation emanating from the Kremlin that their invasion would be welcomed.

Ukraine's military, interior ministry and U.N. ambassador did not respond to requests for more information to help verify the authenticity of the messages read out at the United Nations.

Whatever their origins, the messages allude to an undeniable theme of the war: Fierce resistance by Ukrainian forces has denied Mr. Putin the quick and easy victory Russia appears to have anticipated, while some among Russia's young military force have been ill-prepared for battle and buffeted by bad morale.
. . .
For Mr. Putin, the rising death toll on the Russian side could undermine domestic support for his Ukrainian incursion. Russian memories are long and mothers of soldiers, in particular, American officials say, could easily hark back to the 15,000 troops killed when the Soviet Union invaded and occupied Afghanistan, or the thousands killed in Chechnya.

Mr. Putin has tried to counter assessments from Western officials that Russia was running into greater resistance than expected. But on Thursday, he acknowledged there had been losses, promising the families of the fallen a special payout of 5 million rubles, or nearly $50,000.
. . .

---

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SILICON VALLEY

Flying Crowbar said:

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The fate of the AN225 was discussed about 100 pages or so ago. It's confirmed destroyed.

The AN225 is confirmed gone pic.twitter.com/2YPlFCCcOT

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 3, 2022

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Thanks.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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On Putin, I wouldn't say he's been conditioned. Calculated aggression and brutality is his game. He's just been holding onto the cards until he wanted to play them. The west just can't seem to understand what and who they're actually dealing with.

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I feel like it's some of column a and some of column b. "Conditioned" might not have been the best term but he's experienced a trend of western tolerance for aggression due to a clear aversion to conflict. He thusly calculated that he'd encounter a similar response in this instance.

But, yes, I agree that the west has continually refused to view situations through Putin's eyes and declined to address him in terms he functionally understands/respects. As a result he moves as a dominant alpha force dealing with a submissive beta entity.

https://t.co/4fPKeuvahU

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) March 3, 2022

jabberwalkie09 said:

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https://t.co/4fPKeuvahU

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) March 3, 2022

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what does this even mean?

jabberwalkie09 said:

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https://t.co/4fPKeuvahU

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) March 3, 2022

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What a nutsack

4,500 M72 LAW grenade launchers and 7,500 hand grenades from 🇨🇦Canada.
Old but gold?

— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) March 3, 2022

Bag said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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https://t.co/4fPKeuvahU

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) March 3, 2022

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what does this even mean?

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Maybe the "UN Peacekeepers" will have to answer to the Russian military?

Ukraine lost 1 9K33 Osa system after Russia targered Korotych airbase, Kharkiv area. pic.twitter.com/723ypZH8Vl

— MrRevinsky (@Kyruer) March 3, 2022

Jay Reimenschneider said:

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Can we all agree on one thing? That this is the weirdest war ever fought?

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Nah

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whisky_War

DallasAg 94 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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In what way?

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My biggest concern is too little, too late.

As we provide all of these weapons after days of Russian invasion, the Russians seize all of the weapons still boxed up.

Ukraine needed these weapons before Russia invaded. Now that we know Russia has forces within Ukraine, it would not be surprise me if Russia waits for delivery and then takes the delivery.

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I have yet to see pictures of munitions being nearly enough to have a stockpile. I assume what comes in is going immediately out to the field. I don't think Ukrainians would be caught dead with an unused NLAW or javelin.