***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,636,473 Views | 47866 Replies | Last: 12 hrs ago by EastSideAg2002
Teddy Perkins
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jabberwalkie09
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David Wallace said:

RebelE Infantry said:

MagnumLoad said:

dodger02 said:

YouBet said:

MagnumLoad said:

Why has not Russia established air superiority? Have they made a deal to prevent USA/NATO intervention?


Earlier analysis said they have no guided munitions putting their pilots, who are already not trained well, and best assets at severe risk. Hoping they wouldn't need them.
Do I read this to mean that they simply don't have the capability, at all, within the Russian military to drop guided bombs? Or is it that they don't have those currently deployed in Ukraine?

The more I read and see of them rolling old rusted out cold-war era equipment and dropping dumb bombs at low altitudes, the more I start to question this whole "superpower" designation.


Then we should establish the no fly zone and call their bluff. No way those who would have to cooperate will allow putin to use strategic nuclear weapons. No matter, we should not be dissuaded from doing what is right. Doing so makes our own doom certain. putin hides in a mountain while he sends boys to commit atrocities and die. F that *******!


I know this has been stated a whole bunch, but it must be said every single time this is brought up- to establish a no fly zone is to put full nuclear exchange on the table.

You say that there's no way they will launch. Are you willing to wager the fate of the world and everyone you love on it?
Is Russia wiling to wager the fate of the world and everyone they love on it? You need to be asking THEM this question because they would be the one to use a nuke first. And I say "NO" they wont do it. They moment they do, they all die.

That flies in the face of Soviet and Russian doctrine as far as I'm aware. The answer is very much yes. Especially in first strike usage.
MagnumLoad
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Again, doctrine not equal to action
I hate tu. It's in my blood.
TRM
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PJYoung
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aggiehawg
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Quote:

Implies Ukraine is threatening Russia with nuclear weapons
When did Ukraine obtain nuclear weapons?
jabberwalkie09
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MagnumLoad said:

Again, doctrine not equal to action

You do understand that this is how their leadership thinks right? Nuclear usage first to force negotiations. I'm not sure I would count on one lone hold out who could be replaced.
Rossticus
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jabberwalkie09 said:

MagnumLoad said:

Again, doctrine not equal to action

You do understand that this is how their leadership thinks right? Nuclear usage first to force negotiations. I'm not sure I would count on one loan hold out who could be replaced.


Then from a purely philosophical standpoint, opposition to Russia is unjustified under any circumstances.
AggieChemE09
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This thread is "***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates***"

The thread is not ***Brain Dead ideas about creating a no-fly zone or A10s would totally destroy those conveys".

Take all this elsewhere
Not a Bot
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Confirmation:

jabberwalkie09
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TRM
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What do you all think? For construction or for targetting?

aeroag14
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TRM said:

What do you all think? For construction or for targetting?



Unless it is emitting something (radar energy, thermal energy, etc) it isnt for targeting.
RebelE Infantry
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TRM said:

What do you all think? For construction or for targetting?




Looks like markers used by survey crews.
TRM
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Why would they be surveying now?
TRM
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I don't know if it is or isn't?
TRM
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jabberwalkie09
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Rossticus said:

jabberwalkie09 said:

MagnumLoad said:

Again, doctrine not equal to action

You do understand that this is how their leadership thinks right? Nuclear usage first to force negotiations. I'm not sure I would count on one loan hold out who could be replaced.


Then from a purely philosophical standpoint, opposition to Russia is unjustified under any circumstances.

Incorrect. NATO, and by extension the USA, has been very clear on it's message imo. Besides, we are funding and equipping the opposition. We just aren't making overt acts of aggression of someone who more than likely would use nuclear weapons.
Rossticus
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aeroag14 said:

TRM said:

What do you all think? For construction or for targetting?



Unless it is emitting something (radar energy, thermal energy, etc) it isnt for targeting.


Not military targeting but possibly indicators that individuals within marked building should be "targeted" for elimination as political dissidents once invasion is complete. Russia did announce intent to publicly execute people and crush any anti-occupation demonstrations.
RebelE Infantry
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TRM said:

Why would they be surveying now?


No idea. We also don't know how long they've been there. Maybe they've been there a while and only noticed now due to people having a heightened awareness.
aezmvp
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RebelE Infantry said:

TRM said:

Why would they be surveying now?


No idea. We also don't know how long they've been there. Maybe they've been there a while and only noticed now due to people having a heightened awareness.
Could it also have been used for taking accurate measurements in case open resources were messed with or unavailable and GPS systems jammed or offline?
Rossticus
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jabberwalkie09 said:

Rossticus said:

jabberwalkie09 said:

MagnumLoad said:

Again, doctrine not equal to action

You do understand that this is how their leadership thinks right? Nuclear usage first to force negotiations. I'm not sure I would count on one loan hold out who could be replaced.


Then from a purely philosophical standpoint, opposition to Russia is unjustified under any circumstances.

Incorrect. NATO, and by extension the USA, has been very clear on it's message imo. Besides, we are funding and equipping the opposition. We just aren't making overt acts of aggression of someone who more than likely would use nuclear weapons.


I'd say that we're being overly cautious even in what equipment is being allocated. There are many more types of Soviet build equipment in back storage of regional NATO nations that Stoltenberg has refused to allow in-theater for fear of escalation, that would be of massive benefit to Ukraine. Unless that's just a diplomatic sleight of hand (which I doubt), we're being conservative to the point of absurdity considering the cost of such actions and behaving timidly in the face of Russian bullying.
RebelE Infantry
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aezmvp said:

RebelE Infantry said:

TRM said:

Why would they be surveying now?


No idea. We also don't know how long they've been there. Maybe they've been there a while and only noticed now due to people having a heightened awareness.
Could it also have been used for taking accurate measurements in case open resources were messed with or unavailable and GPS systems jammed or offline?


I suppose so, but I'm not really the guy to ask about that kind of stuff.
Squadron7
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HEADLINE: How cheap Chinese tires might explain Russia's 'stalled' 40-mile-long military convoy in Ukraine

Quote:

As the eighth day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine began Thursday morning, Russian forces appeared to have gained tactical control of their first city, the southern port city of Kherson, but Ukraine is still holding out in Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv, despite heavy shelling. Deaths are mounting on both sides.

Big explosions were heard in Kyiv overnight, but according to the British Defense Ministry's Thursday morning update, the main body of the 40-mile-long Russian military convoy advancing on the capital remains nearly 20 miles from the city center, "having been delayed by staunch Ukrainian resistance, mechanical breakdown, and congestion. The column has made little discernible progress in over three days."

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby gave a similar prognosis on Wednesday, saying the "stalled" column hasn't, "from our best estimates, made any appreciable progress in the last 24-36 hours," possibly because the Russians are "regrouping themselves and reassessing the progress that they have not made and how to make up the lost time," but probably also due to "logistics and sustainment challenges" and "resistance from the Ukrainians."

Trent Telenko, a retired Pentagon staff specialist and military history blogger, suggests another big reason may be Russia's tires, as he explained in a long, illustrated Twitter thread based on photos of deserted Russian Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile systems and his own experience as a U.S. Army vehicle auditor. "When you leave military truck tires in one place for months on end," the sidewalls get brittle in the sun and fail like the tires on the Pantsir-SR, he wrote. "No one exercised that vehicle for one year."

Also....

Burnsey
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If Putin uses nukes in Ukraine, he might as well use them all and go after all the world (except maybe China)z There's no way that that any first strike in Ukraine won't bring about retaliation and escalation that eventually results in WW3.
AvidAggie
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I'm not sure the US would use nukes even if Russia did first. Delicate balance.

I think even China would strongly condemn Russia at that point if they used a nuke.
2wealfth Man
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TRM said:


actually a really big deal here; first sort of public break by an oligarch. I don't think Putin is on very firm ground at this point. Populace is starting to get a better sense of the magnitude of this military disaster.
Rossticus
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Burnsey said:

If Putin uses nukes in Ukraine, he might as well use them all and go after all the world (except maybe China)z There's no way that that any first strike in Ukraine won't bring about retaliation and escalation that eventually results in WW3.


I think that Russia could gas half of Ukraine and use theater level nukes and everyone would sit on their hands without doing too much more than they're doing now.
deddog
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Bag said:

Whoa, what weapon system can pop a top off a tank like that? Is that the Javelin?

War is hell, and that is one terrible way to go out.

Likely the tank cooked off and the turret blew up from the inside
jabberwalkie09
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Rossticus said:

jabberwalkie09 said:

Rossticus said:

jabberwalkie09 said:

MagnumLoad said:

Again, doctrine not equal to action

You do understand that this is how their leadership thinks right? Nuclear usage first to force negotiations. I'm not sure I would count on one loan hold out who could be replaced.


Then from a purely philosophical standpoint, opposition to Russia is unjustified under any circumstances.

Incorrect. NATO, and by extension the USA, has been very clear on it's message imo. Besides, we are funding and equipping the opposition. We just aren't making overt acts of aggression of someone who more than likely would use nuclear weapons.


I'd say that we're being overly cautious even in what equipment is being allocated. There are many more types of Soviet build equipment in back storage of regional NATO nations that Stoltenberg has refused to allow in-theater for fear of escalation, that would be of massive benefit to Ukraine. Unless that's just a diplomatic sleight of hand (which I doubt), we're being conservative to the point of absurdity considering the cost of such actions and behaving timidly in the face of Russian bullying.

I assume you're referring to the air assets. There's legitimate logistical and tactical problems with that. Flying out of a Polish air base full stocked and ready to rock would be problematic for all of NATO. I'm not sure how much radar coverage the Russians truly have, but I'd bet some money on there being Russian assets watching every single plane taking off from a NATO base in Eastern Europe right now and that would get reported.

As to other systems and equipment, despite some logistical hurdles getting AA systems in especially if they're of Soviet design or man portable systems is easier than handing out equipment. There's going to be some learning curves with western equipment. Time isn't necessarily on their side and equipping what we can with little to no training needed is really the best bad option we have right now.

There's basically three wars being waged right now: bullets/kinetic, economic through sanctions, and propaganda via social and traditional media.
Teddy Perkins
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A few bodies on the ground. Don't play the video if you aren't comfortable with that.

BlackGoldAg2011
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[If we remove a derail then it should not be started again. -Staff]
FancyKetchup14
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At first I just saw your emoji and it made me think I was late getting a notification on my phone to seek shelter immediately.
2wealfth Man
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mwp02ag
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Look at the both the tire that appears to be used as a footing for the stabilization jack there and the tire still on the wheel.

They don't look like they've been off road at all. Zero mud on the tires. Not saying that guy doesn't know what he's talking about but I don't understand how you bog a wheel bad enough to break the bead and not have some mud some where.
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