SamjamAg said:

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JobSecurity said:

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RUSSIA: Reports planes being diverted to prevent citizens from leaving.https://t.co/0IZQnYLYNJ

— Conflict News (@Conflicts) March 3, 2022

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I wonder who who was on that plane.

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The protests against the war have been fairly large in St. Petersburg. Estonia or Finland are just a few hours drive away. Would be interesting to see if border crossings increase dramatically within the next few days.

Zimmerman telegram is a great analogy. Crazy how history repeats itself. God help us. Dangerous times.

Bag said:

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LMCane said:

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RONA Ag said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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Question for those of you that keep up with International militaries.

Seems everything shown Russian looks to be rusted out and not well kept.

The strategy believed was that Russia was going to take a sliver of SE Ukraine and we were "surprised" they went after Kiev.

If I'm Putin... I set a distant marker, say beyond Kiev, so that I negotiate back to what I intend to take. You send in your crap vehicles knowing you are best to just abandon them, anyway, because they were being decommissioned.

Just seems Russia is either a media-driven facade and the curtain has been pulled back, or Russia's real military and armaments have not been deployed.

If this is the best Russia has, they likely have been exposed and are vulnerable to being attacked.

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Initially that's what it appeared they did but the Ukrainians are blowing up or outright taking some of the best of the best of the Russian militaries weapons. Russia has proven they're fully committed thus far

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The Russkies have definitely been committing some of their best weapons and systems to Ukraine.

There are 100 pages of pictures of their MLRS, Sukhois, T-80s, thermobaric launchers, uparmored BMP, Spetsnatz, IL 76 transports.

what makes you think that Russia (with a GDP of Texas) has some amazingly awesome Army just sitting around Moscow right now?

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Not to mention the level of corruption in that county makes the GDP actually around the size of Louisiana

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The one thing that they have not (thankfully) committed at this point is their bombers. That likely has to do with the russians inability to completely suppress the Ukrainian air defenses.

That said, it does appears that they are slowly degrading the Ukes ability to defend their skys. Cruise missiles and MLRS are bad. But when TU-95s start flying, that is when thousands and thousands of civilians will be killed.

Resupply convoy heading back?

Detail on the bulk of the column. It is not small. pic.twitter.com/CcFP52nrDD

— TyBTime (@TyBTime) March 3, 2022

dodger02 said:

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YouBet said:

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MagnumLoad said:

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Why has not Russia established air superiority? Have they made a deal to prevent USA/NATO intervention?

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Earlier analysis said they have no guided munitions putting their pilots, who are already not trained well, and best assets at severe risk. Hoping they wouldn't need them.

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Do I read this to mean that they simply don't have the capability, at all, within the Russian military to drop guided bombs? Or is it that they don't have those currently deployed in Ukraine?

The more I read and see of them rolling old rusted out cold-war era equipment and dropping dumb bombs at low altitudes, the more I start to question this whole "superpower" designation.

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I believe that they do have guided munitions. Just very few of them as they are relatively very expensive. So, no, I do not believe they have deployed them. But I also think that they dont want to use them because they can not quickly replenish their stock.

Holding back anticipating a bigger fight.

Air raids in Kiev right now.

From what I've seen they aren't really letting people cross the border either. Checking text messages and such to see why people are trying to leave.

"Stop texting me," friend asks, "I'm trying to clean out my phone. They're searching everyone's phone at the border. I'll write to you once I'm on the other side."

— Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) March 3, 2022

TRM said:

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Resupply convoy heading back?

Detail on the bulk of the column. It is not small. pic.twitter.com/CcFP52nrDD

— TyBTime (@TyBTime) March 3, 2022

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Is Belarus retreating, or pulling back and reorganizing for an offensive elsewhere?

aeroag14 said:

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dodger02 said:

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YouBet said:

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MagnumLoad said:

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Why has not Russia established air superiority? Have they made a deal to prevent USA/NATO intervention?

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Earlier analysis said they have no guided munitions putting their pilots, who are already not trained well, and best assets at severe risk. Hoping they wouldn't need them.

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Do I read this to mean that they simply don't have the capability, at all, within the Russian military to drop guided bombs? Or is it that they don't have those currently deployed in Ukraine?

The more I read and see of them rolling old rusted out cold-war era equipment and dropping dumb bombs at low altitudes, the more I start to question this whole "superpower" designation.

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I believe that they do have guided munitions. Just very few of them as they are relatively very expensive. So, no, I do not believe they have deployed them. But I also think that they dont want to use them because they can not quickly replenish their stock.

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This is the best answer that I think anyone can come to. This is of course not only true for air delivered munitions but I have a feeling that this also applies to their cruise missiles as well. I'm sure they have more of those though, but at some point I think we will see Iksander missile strikes begin to lessen as their stores dwindle.

Unfortunately I think it is the later.

I think it's a supply convoy going back north to resupply, but I don't know.

Most RUS missile launches are coming from inside Ukraine (~230 from mobile units), a big chunk (more than 160) from Russia, 70 from Belarus, and less than 10 from maritime assets in Black sea, according to senior defense official.

— Andrew Clevenger (@andclev) March 3, 2022

YouBet said:

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MagnumLoad said:

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Why has not Russia established air superiority? Have they made a deal to prevent USA/NATO intervention?

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Earlier analysis said they have no guided munitions putting their pilots, who are already not trained well, and best assets at severe risk. Hoping they wouldn't need them.

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“❗️ #Moldova applies for #EU membership, President Sandu says” https://t.co/5JqlbTt0jK

— redintelpanda (@RedIntelPanda) March 3, 2022

dodger02 said:

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YouBet said:

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MagnumLoad said:

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Why has not Russia established air superiority? Have they made a deal to prevent USA/NATO intervention?

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Earlier analysis said they have no guided munitions putting their pilots, who are already not trained well, and best assets at severe risk. Hoping they wouldn't need them.

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Do I read this to mean that they simply don't have the capability, at all, within the Russian military to drop guided bombs? Or is it that they don't have those currently deployed in Ukraine?

The more I read and see of them rolling old rusted out cold-war era equipment and dropping dumb bombs at low altitudes, the more I start to question this whole "superpower" designation.

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Then we should establish the no fly zone and call their bluff. No way those who would have to cooperate will allow putin to use strategic nuclear weapons. No matter, we should not be dissuaded from doing what is right. Doing so makes our own doom certain. putin hides in a mountain while he sends boys to commit atrocities and die. F that *******!

Jarrin' Jay said:

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From a Fox News article:

"A Hercules C130 transport aircraft carrying around 2,000 anti-tank missiles for Ukraine has departed Norway Thursday, the Associated Press is reporting.

Also Thursday, Germany's economy ministry approved sending 2,700 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, according to the dpa news agency."

Russia has handled this so poorly it is evident that their traditional forces would get wiped out by NATO in a traditional fight if there was no fear of nuclear retaliation. It is still unbelievable their vast air force, vast in #s and superiority, has not established control of the skies. So much so that even in the middle of the war other countries can fly military hardware and supplies in to Ukraine. If it was the U.S. invading and any other country tried to fly supplies in that cargo plane would be destroyed immediately after entering the contested air space.

I still think Russia will take Ukraine initially then get bled out and sanctioned for a long time and ultimately lose, but the incompetence of their battle plan and the performance of their army and air force is shocking.

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There is NO WAY that a NATO C-130 is flying into Ukraine.

that is not even stated in the article. they are landing in Poland or another NATO country, and trucking them into Ukraine across the land border from Slovakia or Poland.

Why are they dumping chaff?

JobSecurity said:

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“❗️ #Moldova applies for #EU membership, President Sandu says” https://t.co/5JqlbTt0jK

— redintelpanda (@RedIntelPanda) March 3, 2022

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Man he really did send everyone screaming into the arms of the EU.

"This is no longer Cold War with the West, it's Hot War."

- #Russia's SVR (foreign intel) director, Sergey Naryshkin, speaking today. pic.twitter.com/arRGSkUA7B

— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) March 3, 2022

pic.twitter.com/7CVJ73YgHL

— BING BONG (@TexasTVclips) March 3, 2022

Conflict Off Ramp

Probably need to be humming Kum-bay-ya to read this one.



General resolution through UN.

1. To give Putin an out for demobilization of Ukrainian military UN will send international non-NATO forces in country, using nato logistics move then to border or sea and airports. Important that sourced from Latin America, Asia, Africa. Ukraine will pass law similar to Japan's sdf, and eliminate srbm from arsenal.

2. De-nazification - disband azov battalion, have Ukraine gov pass some equal rights/hate crime legislation.

3. Lift sanctions 100% upon withdrawal of last Russian soldier across pre invasion line.

4. Eastern regions placed under UN administrative control.

5. Frozen state assets used for reconstruction/rehabilitation of Ukraine's cities and people. Additionally significant UN budget redirected to Ukraine for similar effort (thinking 100% of climate change).

jabberwalkie09 said:

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aeroag14 said:

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dodger02 said:

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YouBet said:

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MagnumLoad said:

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Why has not Russia established air superiority? Have they made a deal to prevent USA/NATO intervention?

---

Earlier analysis said they have no guided munitions putting their pilots, who are already not trained well, and best assets at severe risk. Hoping they wouldn't need them.

---

Do I read this to mean that they simply don't have the capability, at all, within the Russian military to drop guided bombs? Or is it that they don't have those currently deployed in Ukraine?

The more I read and see of them rolling old rusted out cold-war era equipment and dropping dumb bombs at low altitudes, the more I start to question this whole "superpower" designation.

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I believe that they do have guided munitions. Just very few of them as they are relatively very expensive. So, no, I do not believe they have deployed them. But I also think that they dont want to use them because they can not quickly replenish their stock.

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This is the best answer that I think anyone can come to. This is of course not only true for air delivered munitions but I have a feeling that this also applies to their cruise missiles as well. I'm sure they have more of those though, but at some point I think we will see Iksander missile strikes begin to lessen as their stores dwindle.

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there are very few Russian videos even posted anywhere as they have forbidden their troops to use social media. so how anyone is claiming that the Russian Air Force is using or is not using smart munitions is a total unknown.

the Russkies could be using guided munitions against Uke armored vehicles and "plinking" them as we did in the desert in Kuwait in 1991.

No one really knows right now- certainly no civilian knows for sure what exactly is happening.

“There are things over which some sort of compromises need to be found. So people stop dying. But there are also things where compromises simply don't exist...You simply can't just back down and say: 'OK, this is your country, Ukraine is part of Russia.' This is just impossible." https://t.co/TzpA8doMhd

— Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel) March 3, 2022

Maybe the Russian air assets are in as bad a state of disrepair/poor maintenance as the ground assets.

The penalty of system failures in the site is far greater than the penalty of a broken down armor on a road/pasture.

It's one possible explanation why they don't have 24 hour CAP orbiting.