Another video showing Belarusian military forces with tactical markings (red square) for possible invasion https://t.co/mHNdJ6JX6h
— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) March 3, 2022
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 14 hrs ago by EastSideAg2002
Pre August 1945 thats all true.DallasAg 94 said:
Question for those of you that keep up with International militaries.
Seems everything shown Russian looks to be rusted out and not well kept.
The strategy believed was that Russia was going to take a sliver of SE Ukraine and we were "surprised" they went after Kiev.
If I'm Putin... I set a distant marker, say beyond Kiev, so that I negotiate back to what I intend to take. You send in your crap vehicles knowing you are best to just abandon them, anyway, because they were being decommissioned.
Just seems Russia is either a media-driven facade and the curtain has been pulled back, or Russia's real military and armaments have not been deployed.
If this is the best Russia has, they likely have been exposed and are vulnerable to being attacked.
But if you have nukes and are nutty enough to use them, you dont have to worry about being attacked.
...And to think Bill Clinton talked these same Ukrainians into giving their post Soviet nuke stocks to these same invading Russians.
Brilliant
Jay Reimenschneider said:JobSecurity said:According to a source in Aeroflot, #Russia will not return airplanes leased from European companies (more than 500). Trust in protection of property rights will disappear. Who will ever send any machinery to Russia again? https://t.co/DzQrAtOCBe
— Janis Kluge (@jakluge) March 3, 2022
Please. How many times has Exxon lost oil wells in some country that nationalized them. The corporations will be back.
How many times has Exxon gone back to that country?
I still think the main enemy of the Russians is time as long as a large portion of the Uke military can stay in the field and not get encircled and destroyed. They have to bleed the Russians as much as possible and be smart about when to tactically withdraw to survive. The West just needs to keep flooding weapons and other support material in through western Ukraine. It would be great if we could get more SAM systems operational to enhance overall air defense. It certainly sounds like the Ukes are getting plenty of shoulder fired antitank and antiair weapons.
Does anybody have a good idea how much longer the countryside will be muddy so the Russians are still forced to use the road system to advance?
We still have not seen the full force of the psychological hit the Russians are going to take based on the sanctions. I think Putin has been keeping the Russian financial markets closed hoping for a Ukrainian capitulation before he has to reopen the markets and have the population react to the massive wealth evaporation they are going to experience.
Does anybody have a good idea how much longer the countryside will be muddy so the Russians are still forced to use the road system to advance?
We still have not seen the full force of the psychological hit the Russians are going to take based on the sanctions. I think Putin has been keeping the Russian financial markets closed hoping for a Ukrainian capitulation before he has to reopen the markets and have the population react to the massive wealth evaporation they are going to experience.
From a Fox News article:
"A Hercules C130 transport aircraft carrying around 2,000 anti-tank missiles for Ukraine has departed Norway Thursday, the Associated Press is reporting.
Also Thursday, Germany's economy ministry approved sending 2,700 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, according to the dpa news agency."
Russia has handled this so poorly it is evident that their traditional forces would get wiped out by NATO in a traditional fight if there was no fear of nuclear retaliation. It is still unbelievable their vast air force, vast in #s and superiority, has not established control of the skies. So much so that even in the middle of the war other countries can fly military hardware and supplies in to Ukraine. If it was the U.S. invading and any other country tried to fly supplies in that cargo plane would be destroyed immediately after entering the contested air space.
I still think Russia will take Ukraine initially then get bled out and sanctioned for a long time and ultimately lose, but the incompetence of their battle plan and the performance of their army and air force is shocking.
"A Hercules C130 transport aircraft carrying around 2,000 anti-tank missiles for Ukraine has departed Norway Thursday, the Associated Press is reporting.
Also Thursday, Germany's economy ministry approved sending 2,700 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, according to the dpa news agency."
Russia has handled this so poorly it is evident that their traditional forces would get wiped out by NATO in a traditional fight if there was no fear of nuclear retaliation. It is still unbelievable their vast air force, vast in #s and superiority, has not established control of the skies. So much so that even in the middle of the war other countries can fly military hardware and supplies in to Ukraine. If it was the U.S. invading and any other country tried to fly supplies in that cargo plane would be destroyed immediately after entering the contested air space.
I still think Russia will take Ukraine initially then get bled out and sanctioned for a long time and ultimately lose, but the incompetence of their battle plan and the performance of their army and air force is shocking.
This is what I think. I think Putin stalls, goes back to Crimea and the Donbas, takes them. Calls it a day.DallasAg 94 said:
Question for those of you that keep up with International militaries.
Seems everything shown Russian looks to be rusted out and not well kept.
The strategy believed was that Russia was going to take a sliver of SE Ukraine and we were "surprised" they went after Kiev.
If I'm Putin... I set a distant marker, say beyond Kiev, so that I negotiate back to what I intend to take. You send in your crap vehicles knowing you are best to just abandon them, anyway, because they were being decommissioned.
Just seems Russia is either a media-driven facade and the curtain has been pulled back, or Russia's real military and armaments have not been deployed.
If this is the best Russia has, they likely have been exposed and are vulnerable to being attacked.
What a stupid thing to do, given all the sanctions against him. Russian economy is going to get hit very hard.
I cant think of a bigger miscalculation militarily ....except for Afghanistan in the 80s...well, maybe it fits.
Mariupol update.
"They destroyed the bridges, they destroyed the trains so that we could not evacuate our women, children and elderly people. They prevent us from getting a provision supply. They are trying to create a blockade here, just like in Leningrad..."
— Michael Weiss 🌻 (@michaeldweiss) March 3, 2022
"We are doing our best to repair the critical infrastructure as fast as possible. We are working with international institutions to create a 'green corridor' for a humanitarian mission. We are working to provide ceasefire to repair electricity supply..."
— Michael Weiss 🌻 (@michaeldweiss) March 3, 2022
"Those hypocrites came here 'to save' Russian-speaking people of Mariupol and oblast, but in reality they are conducting genocide of our people of Ukrainian, Russian, Greek and other origin. Also they are spreading a lot of fakes today..."
— Michael Weiss 🌻 (@michaeldweiss) March 3, 2022
"So we ask to use only official sources of information."
— Michael Weiss 🌻 (@michaeldweiss) March 3, 2022
A thread about…tires. It goes into the mundane maintenance that a military should be doing, and what Russia may not be doing.
This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵
— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 2, 2022
1/ pic.twitter.com/LmxW43v6gy
Yes so much so I have trouble believing all I am hearing. According to the twitter accounts the Russian army is composed of (Larry, Moe, and Curly)*50K. Yet they have seen a lot of action in Syria against ISIS and the others.Jarrin' Jay said:
From a Fox News article:
"A Hercules C130 transport aircraft carrying around 2,000 anti-tank missiles for Ukraine has departed Norway Thursday, the Associated Press is reporting.
Also Thursday, Germany's economy ministry approved sending 2,700 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, according to the dpa news agency."
Russia has handled this so poorly it is evident that their traditional forces would get wiped out by NATO in a traditional fight if there was no fear of nuclear retaliation. It is still unbelievable their vast air force, vast in #s and superiority, has not established control of the skies. So much so that even in the middle of the war other countries can fly military hardware and supplies in to Ukraine. If it was the U.S. invading and any other country tried to fly supplies in that cargo plane would be destroyed immediately after entering the contested air space.
I still think Russia will take Ukraine initially then get bled out and sanctioned for a long time and ultimately lose, but the incompetence of their battle plan and the performance of their army and air force is shocking.
It honestly doesn't make sense.
Not a military analyst, but the politics are straight forward. Putin need not seriously worry about losing crimea, and the 2 other eastern regions. The majority of the people there are Russian and did see the Russian army as liberators. Ukraine had been trying for 8 years to suppress rebellions in the 2 eastern regions.
Problem for Putin is that the 2 eastern regions don't do much. They don't provide significant defensive depth. He's too far in at this point. The Ukrainians would have to encircle and destroy enough of the Russian army before he would consider making an offer they could live with.
Problem for Putin is that the 2 eastern regions don't do much. They don't provide significant defensive depth. He's too far in at this point. The Ukrainians would have to encircle and destroy enough of the Russian army before he would consider making an offer they could live with.
Yesterday evening: https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3274372/replies/61597401
#Ukraine: Yesterday in Berezan, #Kyiv Oblast the Ukrainian Territorial Defence forces ambushed a Russian column, capturing a BMP-2 in usable condition, capturing two 9M111-pattern ATGM also. (Only one seen here but two are visually verified) pic.twitter.com/TTxWjosgVg
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 3, 2022
#Odesa outskirts under air strikes.
— Gregor Martin (@Guderian_Xaba) March 3, 2022
There has been a lot of discussion about the Russian's logistical issues keeping their columns supplied and moving. They have been using a massive amount of diesel fuel. I would assume the same is happening with their aviation fuel but it is hard to tell because we don't know how many sorties the Russians have actually flown.
Where does Russia refine diesel and aviation fuel, what kind of refining capacity do they actually have, and how far do the refined products have to move just to get to points the Russians can even put it into trucks to distribute?
I think their logistical problems are going to compound past just the destroyed resupply convoys to Russia's ability to refine the fuel they need and get it where it need to go for distribution.
Where does Russia refine diesel and aviation fuel, what kind of refining capacity do they actually have, and how far do the refined products have to move just to get to points the Russians can even put it into trucks to distribute?
I think their logistical problems are going to compound past just the destroyed resupply convoys to Russia's ability to refine the fuel they need and get it where it need to go for distribution.
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So the map Lukanhesko leaked is accurate. If I was Moldova I'd be getting ready for an invasion yesterday.
JobSecurity said:#Putin & #Macron spoke today -- and the readouts from #Paris are ominous:
— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) March 3, 2022
- "Nothing #Putin said reassured us."
- #Putin denied targeting #Kyiv.
- Worse is still to come.
- #Putin wants *all* of #Ukraine.
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Pointed out earlier by someone more astute than me…HTownAg98 said:
A thread about…tires. It goes into the mundane maintenance that a military should be doing, and what Russia may not be doing.This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵
— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 2, 2022
1/ pic.twitter.com/LmxW43v6gy
Why isn't there mud on that tire stuck in the ground? Who thinks that photo is fake?
Corporal Punishment said:Pointed out earlier by someone more astute than me…HTownAg98 said:
A thread about…tires. It goes into the mundane maintenance that a military should be doing, and what Russia may not be doing.This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵
— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 2, 2022
1/ pic.twitter.com/LmxW43v6gy
Why isn't there mud on that tire stuck in the ground? Who thinks that photo is fake?
There was video posted of that same unit being destroyed, fully engulfed in flames iirc.
A video of the movement of the column with missiles for the “Iskander” missile system. https://t.co/mkmiRTIOv1 pic.twitter.com/1tyMzJiwEw
— MotolkoHelp (@MotolkoHelp) March 3, 2022
Why has not Russia established air superiority? Have they made a deal to prevent USA/NATO intervention?
I hate tu. It's in my blood.
With the weak sidewalls, the tires still failed when trying to traverse the uneven dried out ruts.
BadMoonRisin said:This is what I think. I think Putin stalls, goes back to Crimea and the Donbas, takes them. Calls it a day.DallasAg 94 said:
Question for those of you that keep up with International militaries.
Seems everything shown Russian looks to be rusted out and not well kept.
The strategy believed was that Russia was going to take a sliver of SE Ukraine and we were "surprised" they went after Kiev.
If I'm Putin... I set a distant marker, say beyond Kiev, so that I negotiate back to what I intend to take. You send in your crap vehicles knowing you are best to just abandon them, anyway, because they were being decommissioned.
Just seems Russia is either a media-driven facade and the curtain has been pulled back, or Russia's real military and armaments have not been deployed.
If this is the best Russia has, they likely have been exposed and are vulnerable to being attacked.
What a stupid thing to do, given all the sanctions against him. Russian economy is going to get hit very hard.
I cant think of a bigger miscalculation militarily ....except for Afghanistan in the 80s...well, maybe it fits.
I hope you are right, but given the published and quickly pulled summation editorial praising the acquisition of Ukraine, dissolution of NATO, and retreat of US support - i only see his goal as a complete take of Ukraine. He may settle for the captured crescent of territory, but i don't think Ukraine will, unless they are free to up arm as they see fit. Maybe. Peace through power i guess. But knowing Putin, he would stage an elaborate false flag just to get to Reinhard Ukraine.
Hopefully Brazil, Israel and India break. And China sees they battlefield presented isn't worth further solidification of western influence. The parting comment in the oped - western influence is over, the UN vote clearly shows that as dream. If he wants to chase that dream, this war will expand. Either internal to Russia or external.
Reports from the Mayor of Bucha that fighting is ongoing between the city and Vorzel. pic.twitter.com/5216KUH1qL
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 3, 2022
Ukrainian SU-24s still making combat sorties pic.twitter.com/iBoVdRYzfs
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 3, 2022
Was just looking at the current situation between Kyiv and the Russian border in Kursk/Belgorod regions, and it's chaotic to put it mildly.
— The Lookout (@The_Lookout_N) March 3, 2022
Lead elements are pushing on Peremoha - Browary, but fighting is ongoing all the way back the border, heavy in places like Sumy and Okhtyrka https://t.co/oJVNNMVI8I
Had to do some research, as this is the first report I've seen on operations in this area. These developments have occurred since 1800z yesterday.
— The Lookout (@The_Lookout_N) March 3, 2022
Rather than a general advance, I think this is an attempt to secure more roads for/strengthen the flank of the Kyiv operation. https://t.co/o4Gb9Y0t4R
MagnumLoad said:
Why has not Russia established air superiority? Have they made a deal to prevent USA/NATO intervention?
Earlier analysis said they have no guided munitions putting their pilots, who are already not trained well, and best assets at severe risk. Hoping they wouldn't need them.
Whoa, what weapon system can pop a top off a tank like that? Is that the Javelin?TRM said:Was just looking at the current situation between Kyiv and the Russian border in Kursk/Belgorod regions, and it's chaotic to put it mildly.
— The Lookout (@The_Lookout_N) March 3, 2022
Lead elements are pushing on Peremoha - Browary, but fighting is ongoing all the way back the border, heavy in places like Sumy and Okhtyrka https://t.co/oJVNNMVI8I
War is hell, and that is one terrible way to go out.
Start talking to Russian representatives. The key issues on the agenda:
— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) March 3, 2022
1. Immediate ceasefire
2. Armistice
3. Humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians from destroyed or constantly shelled villages/cities. pic.twitter.com/Pv0ISNjsod
RUSSIA: Reports planes being diverted to prevent citizens from leaving.https://t.co/0IZQnYLYNJ
— Conflict News (@Conflicts) March 3, 2022
17:15 EET The fighting has started near Enerhodar, where a big nuclear power plant is located. According to the city mayor, a Russian column of 100 vehicles tries to enter the city but "our guys do everything possible" https://t.co/cDMRwnzF5C
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) March 3, 2022
I wonder who who was on that plane.JobSecurity said:RUSSIA: Reports planes being diverted to prevent citizens from leaving.https://t.co/0IZQnYLYNJ
— Conflict News (@Conflicts) March 3, 2022
It's the Zimmerman telegram all over again. I hope Moldova is rigging every bridge over the Dnister with enough explosives to drop multiple spans, because there aren't a lot of other natural barriers between the border and anything that matters. A quick Google maps look basically has the only significant crossing in the north at something called Ribnita. Other than that it's the dam at Dubasari, which you can't really do much about though that would make for a useful way to flood the south.
Anything currently east of that river might as well be sent further east instead of trying to withdraw.
Anything currently east of that river might as well be sent further east instead of trying to withdraw.
Funny, but Swedish fighter jets are pretty damn good.SpreadsheetAg said:But they are packed perfectly in a 28" x 60" x 4" boxBubblez said:It takes some time to build and scramble Swedish fighter jets. They have to grab a few boxes from a warehouse, and assemble the pieces together with the small included allen wrench.Irish 2.0 said:FOUR RUSSIAN FIGHTER JETS VIOLATED SWEDISH AIRSPACE ON WEDNESDAY -SWEDISH ARMED FORCES
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 2, 2022
Should've shot them down
RONA Ag said:DallasAg 94 said:
Question for those of you that keep up with International militaries.
Seems everything shown Russian looks to be rusted out and not well kept.
The strategy believed was that Russia was going to take a sliver of SE Ukraine and we were "surprised" they went after Kiev.
If I'm Putin... I set a distant marker, say beyond Kiev, so that I negotiate back to what I intend to take. You send in your crap vehicles knowing you are best to just abandon them, anyway, because they were being decommissioned.
Just seems Russia is either a media-driven facade and the curtain has been pulled back, or Russia's real military and armaments have not been deployed.
If this is the best Russia has, they likely have been exposed and are vulnerable to being attacked.
Initially that's what it appeared they did but the Ukrainians are blowing up or outright taking some of the best of the best of the Russian militaries weapons. Russia has proven they're fully committed thus far
The Russkies have definitely been committing some of their best weapons and systems to Ukraine.
There are 100 pages of pictures of their MLRS, Sukhois, T-80s, thermobaric launchers, uparmored BMP, Spetsnatz, IL 76 transports.
what makes you think that Russia (with a GDP of Texas) has some amazingly awesome Army just sitting around Moscow right now?
Little wonder the State department said 'get out now' a few days ago...JobSecurity said:RUSSIA: Reports planes being diverted to prevent citizens from leaving.https://t.co/0IZQnYLYNJ
— Conflict News (@Conflicts) March 3, 2022
Ag87H2O
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