***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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RONA Ag
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In reply to Jayhawk • 6:05p, 3/2/22
AG
Jayhawk said:
JFABNRGR said:
C17s and 130s from UK have been going nonstop into Poland. We have had a ton from Germany as well but the last 48 hours not so much at least with transponders on. Yesterday two of our C17s met up off the coast of Maine eastbound but squawked off just into the atlantic.
bringing in those javelins and ammo for the ukes



You have to love the Polish and the Turkish right now. Poland basically giving Russia the middle finger and daring them to attack them while allowing majority of aid to come through them. Then you have the Turks working in silence supplying everything they have right now
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FancyKetchup14
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6:06p, 3/2/22
AG
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RangerRick9211
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6:07p, 3/2/22
AG
The gang steals a tank: https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/t54b7d/civilians_stole_a_russian_tank_video_with_english/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to chickencoupe16 • 6:07p, 3/2/22
Yes. Sorry. Stupid me.
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GAC06
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In reply to jetescamilla • 6:08p, 3/2/22
AG
jetescamilla said:
Sorry if this has already been posted but I haven't kept up today. We have a surveillance drone that's been sweeping the borders all day. It boggles me that transponders for military aircraft are active during operations such as this.

https://www.flightradar24.com/FORTE10/2afe81cf



We've had those things flying every day week weeks. Transponder on for safety in transit, then probably just to let them know we're watching. Not much other traffic above 50,000ft
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Malibu
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In reply to Jayhawk • 6:08p, 3/2/22
Jayhawk said:
aggiehawg said:
Thanks for posting that. Very informative.

Seems to me that Russian Generals are woefully ignorant of military history and learning logistical mistakes of the past. Even their own.
I've been thinking about this some too. Having been around some large bureaucracies and observing the incentive structures they create, my occam's razor explanation is they are just a bunch of careerist sycophants whose talents are less military and more political.

Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy:

In any bureaucracy, the people devoted to the benefit of the bureaucracy itself always get in control and those dedicated to the goals that the bureaucracy is supposed to accomplish have less and less influence, and sometimes are eliminated entirely.

I think the "all government is inherently inefficient" is part of it. But I dont think our enemies are that stupid.

Rather, a large feature of a Democracy, rather than a bug, is the ability to tell your betters that they're wrong/stupid without being sent to the gulag. The risk/reward of speaking truth to power in the West is usually that people do so, and flaws are addressed. Not so much in China / Russia. I think there are enough smart Russian bureaucrats who knew this is an epic bungle before it started, but aren't willing to die to tell Putin anything other than what he wants to hear.
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BQ_90
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In reply to Htownag11 • 6:09p, 3/2/22
AG
Htownag11 said:
Captain Positivity said:
Petraus or some other general was mentioning this mud issue in the lead up to the invasion. Said if they did move on Ukraine they had to get there early enough to be driving on icy ground.

Seeing so many examples of this now. It was mentioned earlier today that Xi wanted Putin to wait until after the Olympics. Hilarious.

Xi may have cost Putin a war.
The question is - did Xi KNOW he was costing Putin the war?

Unlike our dunces, I wouldn't put this kind of 3D chess past the Chinese.
Xi is positioning China to be the only superpower
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wangus12
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 6:20p, 3/2/22
AG
Irish 2.0 said:
Still a good bit of contested land in Siberia that Xi would probably like to get back…

I'd laugh my ass off if Winnie the Pooh invaded while Putin was doing this ****


It's funny until I realize I don't want China to have that land either
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 6:23p, 3/2/22
AG
Irish 2.0 said:
Still a good bit of contested land in Siberia that Xi would probably like to get back…

I'd laugh my ass off if Winnie the Pooh invaded while Putin was doing this ****
He'd wait until Putin is deposed and the chaos that that entailed, again my view. No one clearly in charge to issue orders, that's confusion that invites aggression. They are both communist regimes of long standing. They know no one takes initiative on their own. They have oppressed both of their populations well.

The line from the movie The Hunt for Red October said it well.



There may be a plan but it has to be authorized...all down the line.
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Ferg
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In reply to RONA Ag • 6:24p, 3/2/22
RONA Ag said:
Jayhawk said:
JFABNRGR said:
C17s and 130s from UK have been going nonstop into Poland. We have had a ton from Germany as well but the last 48 hours not so much at least with transponders on. Yesterday two of our C17s met up off the coast of Maine eastbound but squawked off just into the atlantic.
bringing in those javelins and ammo for the ukes



You have to love the Polish and the Turkish right now. Poland basically giving Russia the middle finger and daring them to attack them while allowing majority of aid to come through them. Then you have the Turks working in silence supplying everything they have right now
Turkish News is also providing pretty good coverage to the world. On Roku, the World News App has it. Once you open the app its the TRT icon.
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6:27p, 3/2/22
AG
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ATX_AG_08
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6:27p, 3/2/22
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ATX_AG_08
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6:28p, 3/2/22
AG
Kyiv is getting hammered right now. Going to be a bloody night I'm afraid.
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jabberwalkie09
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In reply to ATX_AG_08 • 6:32p, 3/2/22
AG
ATX_AG_08 said:

If I'm not mistaken, that's the guy who wrote the article that caused quite a bit of discussion earlier today. Mostly over his omission of possibly Russian supply line issues and criticism of American intelligence in bus analysis. Additionally, I believe Kherson has been fighting for several days so I'm not sure if that means it "fell so quickly."

Regardless, he is right that the lane road to Odessa is now open. But it's about 300 miles according to him. That's a lot of fuel to burn to get there.
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6:32p, 3/2/22
AG


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6:33p, 3/2/22
AG
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rgag12
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In reply to jabberwalkie09 • 6:37p, 3/2/22
AG
jabberwalkie09 said:
ATX_AG_08 said:

If I'm not mistaken, that's the guy who wrote the article that caused quite a bit of discussion earlier today. Mostly over his omission of possibly Russian supply line issues and criticism of American intelligence in bus analysis. Additionally, I believe Kherson has been fighting for several days so I'm not sure if that means it "fell so quickly."

Regardless, he is right that the lane road to Odessa is now open. But it's about 300 miles according to him. That's a lot of fuel to burn to get there.
Going off history, less than a week is pretty quick for a siege of a city.
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wangus12
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In reply to ATX_AG_08 • 6:38p, 3/2/22
AG
ATX_AG_08 said:


I think that may be wishful thanking that Ukrainians are going to fall in line. The amount of internationals that have flooded home and outside support will keep them motivated for awhile longer
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6:39p, 3/2/22
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BlackGoldAg2011
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6:42p, 3/2/22
AG


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In reply to jabberwalkie09 • 6:48p, 3/2/22
AG
And there's fighting still taking place in Kherson right now. I'm hopeful they can gain some of the city back, but not optimistic.

Edit: thanks for filling me in on the guy. I must have missed it.
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12th Man Stan Account
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In reply to ATX_AG_08 • 6:48p, 3/2/22
AG
ATX_AG_08 said:
I'd like to get my hands on one of those as well.

Some more pictures of Ukrainian SOF. Wreaking havoc behind enemy lines.

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TAMUallen
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6:49p, 3/2/22
AG
Sheesh guess the explosion I had heard in Kyiv was actually huge and maybe farther away from Maidan Square than I had thought.

It reminded me of the crack of a lightning bolt but without the thunder
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ATX_AG_08
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In reply to wangus12 • 6:50p, 3/2/22
AG
wangus12 said:
ATX_AG_08 said:


I think that may be wishful thanking that Ukrainians are going to fall in line. The amount of internationals that have flooded home and outside support will keep them motivated for awhile longer


But how much longer do you think they will be able to get into cities like Kyiv to have any effect? Real question.
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In reply to TAMUallen • 6:51p, 3/2/22
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In reply to TAMUallen • 6:52p, 3/2/22
AG
TAMUallen said:
Sheesh guess the explosion I had heard in Kyiv was actually huge and maybe farther away from Maidan Square than I had thought.

It reminded me of the crack of a lightning bolt but without the thunder
I'm assuming you are listening to some audio and aren't actually in Kyiv, right?
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TAMUallen
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In reply to Not a Bot • 6:53p, 3/2/22
AG
Captain Positivity said:
TAMUallen said:
Sheesh guess the explosion I had heard in Kyiv was actually huge and maybe farther away from Maidan Square than I had thought.

It reminded me of the crack of a lightning bolt but without the thunder
I'm assuming you are listening to some audio and aren't actually in Kyiv, right?


Thank goodness I'm not there, sorry bout that! Yes, I keep the Livestreams on in the background all day
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jabberwalkie09
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In reply to ATX_AG_08 • 6:53p, 3/2/22
AG
ATX_AG_08 said:
And there's fighting still taking place in Kherson right now. I'm hopeful they can gain some of the city back, but not optimistic.

Edit: thanks for filling me in on the guy. I must have missed it.

No worries. It was a daily mail article. I remembered the name.
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Eliminatus
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In reply to jabberwalkie09 • 6:57p, 3/2/22
AG
jabberwalkie09 said:
ATX_AG_08 said:

If I'm not mistaken, that's the guy who wrote the article that caused quite a bit of discussion earlier today. Mostly over his omission of possibly Russian supply line issues and criticism of American intelligence in bus analysis. Additionally, I believe Kherson has been fighting for several days so I'm not sure if that means it "fell so quickly."

Regardless, he is right that the lane road to Odessa is now open. But it's about 300 miles according to him. That's a lot of fuel to burn to get there.


Minimal fighting? Kherson fought fiercely for days and has changed hands more than once already. I was tracking that myself. They were the first city to actually repel Russia from the first day.

Always question everything. HUGE advocate of this. That being said, there is an absolute bias in that article. Damn near spin in my opinion. Weird. He is flat out ignoring several important elements which shoot holes in his theory. Easily. Too easily. Enough to laugh it off out of hand.

He may be right, and the Ukes fall. But anyone can flip a coin. His analysis sucks. Which is interesting to me because he is an editor for the Long War site. That has always been a pretty solid site in my experience. Weird
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GAC06
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In reply to Eliminatus • 6:59p, 3/2/22
AG
That guy has found his niche "telling it like it is". His article posted previously basically completely ignored every bit of negative information for Russia.
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aggrad02
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In reply to SidsBurnerAccount • 7:00p, 3/2/22
AG
SidsBurnerAccount said:


Good thread on Russian maintenance issues on all those vehicles that some think aren't being abandoned.


Maintenance issues? Looks like the front of that vehicle got it. It's on fire in the front.
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FriscoKid
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7:00p, 3/2/22
AG
Wonder if those booms were targeting Zelensky.
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Robert C. Christian
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7:00p, 3/2/22
AG
Explosion flashes behind reporter in kyiv.
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BlackGoldAg2011
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7:02p, 3/2/22
AG
If this really was an hour ago in Kherson that hardly looks like a city that has fallen under Russian control to me. Maybe "fallen" just means their force is inside the city.
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BadMoonRisin
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In reply to Robert C. Christian • 7:02p, 3/2/22
AG
"reporting from Kiev, an active warzone, back to you..."

"What was that...it was almost like a flash of lightning...it was almost like a big flash".

Journalists truly are the cream of the crop in terms of intelligence.
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