***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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No Spin Ag
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 4:31p, 3/1/22
ABATTBQ11 said:
What sucks is that when the rest of the world inevitably intervenes, it'll be urban fighting for everyone instead of picking the Russians off in the open fields and roads from the air. NATO and the US especially should have been preparing to intervene on a large scale months ago and launched air strikes as soon as Russia went across the border.


I'm with you. I mean, I still don't want troops on the ground, but if we end up sending planes later, we might as well do it now and save a lot of lives.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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JobSecurity
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4:33p, 3/1/22
AG
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JobSecurity
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4:35p, 3/1/22
AG
Russia can't do this for much longer. Too much corporate momentum beyond the formal sanctions

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RangerRick9211
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In reply to No Spin Ag • 4:38p, 3/1/22
AG
No Spin Ag said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
What sucks is that when the rest of the world inevitably intervenes, it'll be urban fighting for everyone instead of picking the Russians off in the open fields and roads from the air. NATO and the US especially should have been preparing to intervene on a large scale months ago and launched air strikes as soon as Russia went across the border.
I'm with you. I mean, I still don't want troops on the ground, but if we end up sending planes later, we might as well do it now and save a lot of lives.
What about France, Germany or UK drawing a line in the sand on humanitarian aid? We back them. It's not an EU or NATO thing. It's not a military operation.

For the next 48 hours one/some of those countries will fly sorties to help evacuate children/hospitals, injured and help mobilize the remaining refugees. You shoot: Article 5.
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AgsMnn
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In reply to wangus12 • 4:42p, 3/1/22
AG
wangus12 said:
JobSecurity said:
I unfortunately have the sinking feeling that he'll go down as a martyr before this thing ends


Any chance there are some contracted US people guarding Z?
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Rossticus
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4:42p, 3/1/22
Making an independent thread.
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Jack Ruby
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4:43p, 3/1/22
Don't ever let your emotions drive your intelligence.
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Raiderjay
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4:44p, 3/1/22
Exxon Mobil removing U.S. citizen employees from Russia -sources

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TRM
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4:48p, 3/1/22
AG
Let's try to keep the thread on topic.
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Dorm 15
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In reply to TRM • 4:49p, 3/1/22
AG
Thank you
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Dorm 15
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4:52p, 3/1/22
AG
Some of you who have knowledge of armed drones, how many of those would be needed to take out the convoy outside of Kiev?
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TRM
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4:52p, 3/1/22
AG

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SidsBurnerAccount
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4:54p, 3/1/22


The economic pressure on Russia is extreme. They're being isolated in a way I don't recall seeing a major economy undergo before. This level of pressure will hopefully force the oligarchs and military into removing Putin.


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Who?mikejones!
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4:59p, 3/1/22


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IDaggie06
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In reply to AgsMnn • 5:01p, 3/1/22
AG
AgsMnn said:
wangus12 said:
JobSecurity said:
I unfortunately have the sinking feeling that he'll go down as a martyr before this thing ends


Any chance there are some contracted US people guarding Z?
Remember that the propaganda machine goes both ways. While this very well may be real, it could just be making stories up to get outside nations to act faster.
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aunuwyn08
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5:09p, 3/1/22
AG
The level of economic isolation we're imposing on Russia can be just as escalatory as conventional military action against their forces. They will likely pose an existential threat to his regime (and as in the case of autocracies - his life) in the medium and long-terms.

What is our response to a nuclear ultimatum given to the west to restore economic ties? The west needs to move in absolute lock-step in their policies towards Russia, and must be prepared to provide concessions to deescalate. If we place Putin in a lose-lose situation we better be prepared to meet threats with strength.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to TRM • 5:12p, 3/1/22
AG
TRM said:
Let's try to keep the thread on topic.


I think a discussion of Russia's strategic leveraging of their nuclear arsenal to isolate Ukraine from direct foreign military assistance is certainly on topic for this thread on Russian strategy and tactics.
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kingj3
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5:14p, 3/1/22
AG
Devil you know is often better than the devil you don't. And the reality is that we don't know what Russia without Putin will be.

I would love to see a truly free Russia, but the odds are we'll just get another dictator - and maybe a worse one
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wangus12
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In reply to IDaggie06 • 5:15p, 3/1/22
AG
IDaggie06 said:
AgsMnn said:
wangus12 said:
JobSecurity said:
I unfortunately have the sinking feeling that he'll go down as a martyr before this thing ends


Any chance there are some contracted US people guarding Z?
Remember that the propaganda machine goes both ways. While this very well may be real, it could just be making stories up to get outside nations to act faster.


Definitely true. Although I'd definitely bet that there are SOF guys, American or otherwise, that are on the ground in Ukraine.
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to AggieKatie2 • 5:18p, 3/1/22
AG
AggieKatie2 said:
https://vm.tiktok.com/TTPdSEYMuo/

Wow


Please put some sort of description when posting video links.

Lots of gore out there that some don't want to see.
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K2-HMFIC
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In reply to aunuwyn08 • 5:19p, 3/1/22
aunuwyn08 said:
The level of economic isolation we're imposing on Russia can be just as escalatory as conventional military action against their forces. They will likely pose an existential threat to his regime (and as in the case of autocracies - his life) in the medium and long-terms.

What is our response to a nuclear ultimatum given to the west to restore economic ties? The west needs to move in absolute lock-step in their policies towards Russia, and must be prepared to provide concessions to deescalate. If we place Putin in a lose-lose situation we better be prepared to meet threats with strength.


Off Ramps and face saving options are part of this.

But that's what the US/EU can do…domestic constituencies are another conversation…those are where Putin ends up drinking some polonium laced tea.
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Beat40
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In reply to kingj3 • 5:21p, 3/1/22
kingj3 said:
Devil you know is often better than the devil you don't. And the reality is that we don't know what Russia without Putin will be.

I would love to see a truly free Russia, but the odds are we'll just get another dictator - and maybe a worse one
It's a true statement. The calculus is this though: You're pretty sure engagement with the devil you know leads to the unimaginable. So, is that worth risking if there is an opportunity to get to the devil you don't know when at least, for the moment, the entire populace is against the devil you do know?
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Sharpshooter
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In reply to K2-HMFIC • 5:22p, 3/1/22
AG
K2-HMFIC said:
aunuwyn08 said:
The level of economic isolation we're imposing on Russia can be just as escalatory as conventional military action against their forces. They will likely pose an existential threat to his regime (and as in the case of autocracies - his life) in the medium and long-terms.

What is our response to a nuclear ultimatum given to the west to restore economic ties? The west needs to move in absolute lock-step in their policies towards Russia, and must be prepared to provide concessions to deescalate. If we place Putin in a lose-lose situation we better be prepared to meet threats with strength.


Off Ramps and face saving options are part of this.

But that's what the US/EU can do…domestic constituencies are another conversation…those are where Putin ends up drinking some polonium laced tea.
That is too slow a death. Leaves him too much time to consider options. Especially options knowing he is toast. Shoot the *******.
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G Martin 87
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5:22p, 3/1/22
AG
I see a lot of understandable confusion over Putin's long-term strategy here, coupled with a lot of "he must be insane!" comments. You have to look at a map and think historically about where the threats to Russia, and specifically Moscow, have come from. Twice in the past 200 years, and both from Western Europe. In any Russian leader's mind, losing Ukraine to an expansionist EU/NATO that is absorbing most of their former Warsaw Pact satellite buffer states cannot help but be perceived as an existential threat. We must tread VERY carefully here, irrespective of the horrors we are seeing. Wrong moves can trigger atrocities far beyond Ukraine. Moreover, the sanctions being imposed by both Western countries AND businesses based in the West (e.g., Exxon, Apple, etc) are dangerous too. Isolate Russia too much, and again the perception of West vs Russia will be all too easy for Putin to claim.
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AgBQ-00
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In reply to G Martin 87 • 5:28p, 3/1/22
AG
G Martin 87 said:
I see a lot of understandable confusion over Putin's long-term strategy here, coupled with a lot of "he must be insane!" comments. You have to look at a map and think historically about where the threats to Russia, and specifically Moscow, have come from. Twice in the past 200 years, and both from Western Europe. In any Russian leader's mind, losing Ukraine to an expansionist EU/NATO that is absorbing most of their former Warsaw Pact satellite buffer states cannot help but be perceived as an existential threat. We must tread VERY carefully here, irrespective of the horrors we are seeing. Wrong moves can trigger atrocities far beyond Ukraine. Moreover, the sanctions being imposed by both Western countries AND businesses based in the West (e.g., Exxon, Apple, etc) are dangerous too. Isolate Russia too much, and again the perception of West vs Russia will be all too easy for Putin to claim.
This is a true statement. It is also one that Peter Zeihane (sp?) brings up a lot. They have a shrinking military and the only way to secure a border is to expand territory so they can "plug the gaps" in the geography.
You do not have a soul. You are a soul that has a body.

We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
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Dorm 15
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5:30p, 3/1/22
AG
Drones, somebody tell me about drones
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JJxvi
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5:35p, 3/1/22
AG
Putin is essentially a mafia boss who's territory is Russia. it only ends two ways for that state. Revolution or destruction in war (whether that happens all at once or all of its territories are gradually conquered/fall apart piecemeal). So far the peacemeal thing has been happening with Putin aggressively gluing the vase back together.
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TH36
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In reply to Dorm 15 • 5:36p, 3/1/22
Dorm 15 said:
Drones, somebody tell me about drones


Ukraine could use more of em.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to ATX_AG_08 • 5:36p, 3/1/22
AG
Holy ***** That is horrifying.

I saw that this was posted earlier but couldn't watch at the time due to bad reception. This is disgusting.
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to TH36 • 5:37p, 3/1/22
TH36 said:
Dorm 15 said:
Drones, somebody tell me about drones


Ukraine could use more of em.


Any chance we could take the flags of ours and also a Ukraine flag on them so they can use them?
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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CondensedFogAggie
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5:38p, 3/1/22
That 40 mile column of russian reinforcements better be running out of fuel soon. Especially since they're caught in a massive traffic jam, and still needs to heat themselves in winter.

Anyone in logistics care to say how difficult it is to fuel all that gear, AND the fuel trucks, in that traffic jam in the dead of winter?
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Dorm 15
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In reply to TH36 • 5:40p, 3/1/22
AG
TH36 said:
Dorm 15 said:
Drones, somebody tell me about drones


Ukraine could use more of em.
Absolutely. I would think given the fact that Russia has air superiority, giving them drones would be better than manned aircraft.
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G Martin 87
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In reply to JJxvi • 5:40p, 3/1/22
AG
JJxvi said:
Putin is essentially a mafia boss who's territory is Russia. it only ends two ways for that state. Revolution or destruction in war (whether that happens all at once or all of its territories are gradually conquered/fall apart piecemeal). So far the peacemeal thing has been happening with Putin aggressively gluing the vase back together.
The appeal of a "Big Man" running the state is a real thing in Russian culture. To a certain extent, Putin is respected in Russia for reining in the kleptocratic oligarchs who took over in the vacuum that was left by Yeltsin. To the Russian people, Putin isn't a mafia boss. He took down the mafia bosses. Recall that even Stalin was respected as the Big Boss by the same Soviet citizens who he viewed as raw material for the Soviet state.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to kingj3 • 5:44p, 3/1/22
AG
kingj3 said:
Devil you know is often better than the devil you don't. And the reality is that we don't know what Russia without Putin will be.

I would love to see a truly free Russia, but the odds are we'll just get another dictator - and maybe a worse one
This is capitulation just as bad as letting a nuclear state just bully everyone around for fear of WW3. The logical conclusion is that a one world dictatorship is preferable.

I think there is a strategy out of this, but the genie is not going back into the bottle. Putin can't just walk away from this with no consequences, and all of those lives lost can never be brought back. He has selfishly started a new world realignment that his strategy did not plan for, and I hope he rots in hell for it.
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htownag10
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5:45p, 3/1/22
AG


We'll have to see how much of this is true. I'm digging but I'll need help
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