I was working at Boeing in Everett then and had no insight to that build up.
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 5 hrs ago by Waffledynamics
GAC06 said:wbt5845 said:
Guys - a lot - and I mean A LOT - of F-35As have been deployed to Eastern Europe over the weekend. Biggest mobilization I've seen since the Gulf War.
And Iraq 2.0
I know we have deployed more assets to the area but how many have we deployed and what's the make up?
Russia has committed over 75% of their forces and already begged for more from other countries. They cannot sustain losses forever and their economy hangs by a thread.
IF planes fly from Poland I think NATO gets dragged in. I think this stops quickly with a ceasefire at that point and then who knows.
The wildcard is how does Putin end this? If he isn't replaced then does he accept a treaty that Ukraine will never enter NATO? Does that allow him to save enough face?
I see this potentially escalating and think we are seeing advanced forces, tanks and planes moving into position to be ready. I think Putin will siege cities and the West will say no more and put a no fly zone and fly in food. Putin then has to fight or pay for low results and low morale...again, what is the way to end this?
IF planes fly from Poland I think NATO gets dragged in. I think this stops quickly with a ceasefire at that point and then who knows.
The wildcard is how does Putin end this? If he isn't replaced then does he accept a treaty that Ukraine will never enter NATO? Does that allow him to save enough face?
I see this potentially escalating and think we are seeing advanced forces, tanks and planes moving into position to be ready. I think Putin will siege cities and the West will say no more and put a no fly zone and fly in food. Putin then has to fight or pay for low results and low morale...again, what is the way to end this?
Stupe said:There HAS to be some military leaders thinking about a Valkyrie situation right now. There is no way that all of them are behind this insanity.Agthatbuilds said:
Ukraine capitulation or putin assassinated, imo
They have to get the generals on board.
But the way it works, according to the history of those things I've read, is junior officers execute a plan with the generals' consent (but nothing else for plausible denialability purposes) and if it's is successful, the generals take command. If it fails, the generals execute or arrest those junior officers for treason but protect their own asses.
I wouldn't be surprised to see major putin political and military allies start being disappeared.
Ukes will never forfeit NATO membership after this. Putin routinely violates treaties, ceasefires, etc. A treaty is meaningless to him.
jabberwalkie09 said:GAC06 said:wbt5845 said:
Guys - a lot - and I mean A LOT - of F-35As have been deployed to Eastern Europe over the weekend. Biggest mobilization I've seen since the Gulf War.
And Iraq 2.0
I know we have deployed more assets to the area but how many have we deployed and what's the make up?
I'm curious too. This article said there would be 50 US F-35's in Europe but it could be false plus it's four days old.
https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2022/02/24/us-nato-air-forces-mobilize-as-war-comes-to-europe/
I agree. But it might get Putin out for the time being...trying to see a mechanism that allows a resolution anytime soon.
Twice an Aggie said:
I agree. But it might get Putin out for the time being...trying to see a mechanism that allows a resolution anytime soon.
Ukraine is all in. They're not going to back down after Putin invaded them, has been there for 8 years, and has now started shelling and bombing civilians. Liberty or death. That's their stance.
Siege of Kiev - that's the battle. All axises point to that end - Putin won't stop until he is either rattled beyond understanding or takes Kiev.
Can a led coalition of Ukrainians counter attack and punch through a weak spot on the western encirclement? Apparently drones are quite successful, are they getting more? And will the UN jump in and start air dropping humanitarian supplies?
At this point i see Kiev as the most significant Pyrrhic victory since the siege of szigetz. Military historians please correct me if i am wrong.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Szigetv%C3%A1r
Can a led coalition of Ukrainians counter attack and punch through a weak spot on the western encirclement? Apparently drones are quite successful, are they getting more? And will the UN jump in and start air dropping humanitarian supplies?
At this point i see Kiev as the most significant Pyrrhic victory since the siege of szigetz. Military historians please correct me if i am wrong.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Szigetv%C3%A1r
The Russians are committing war crimes and have started rocket and artillery bombardments against inhabited cities.
I know nobody wants a WW3 but it's time to actually ****ing do something.
I know nobody wants a WW3 but it's time to actually ****ing do something.
Mayor of Kharkiv reports: "Many dead and wounded during the barbaric shelling and carpet bombing of residential area today. Including a family who burnt alive in their car. Two parents and three kids."
— Clementine 🇺🇦 Lead from the front (@Zen_Flyer) February 28, 2022
#PutinHitler #PutinWarCriminal #Ukraine #RussiaInvadedUkraine pic.twitter.com/stBIy5xill
TheCougarHunter said:
The Russians are committing war crimes and have started rocket and artillery bombardments against inhabited cities.
I know nobody wants a WW3 but it's time to actually ****ing do something.
Follow this guy if you want to see the aftermath of Russian policy
https://twitter.com/ignis_fatum
I haven't posted his stuff because it's too graphic for texags. But, he links to a lot of alleged videos from this fight
jabberwalkie09 said:Reservists and militias are setting up checkpoints every few miles between Odessa and Kyiv.
— C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) February 28, 2022
Via - @JordanFlrtn
pic.twitter.com/xYO1f8de1c
.
75% of their mobilized force for this operation. Are they really begging Belarus for help? Reads like a play to feed them to the meat grinder to stem their losses for the narrative at home.Twice an Aggie said:
Russia has committed over 75% of their forces and already begged for more from other countries. They cannot sustain losses forever and their economy hangs by a thread.
IF planes fly from Poland I think NATO gets dragged in. I think this stops quickly with a ceasefire at that point and then who knows.
The wildcard is how does Putin end this? If he isn't replaced then does he accept a treaty that Ukraine will never enter NATO? Does that allow him to save enough face?
I see this potentially escalating and think we are seeing advanced forces, tanks and planes moving into position to be ready. I think Putin will siege cities and the West will say no more and put a no fly zone and fly in food. Putin then has to fight or pay for low results and low morale...again, what is the way to end this?
The have 1m in active duty and 2m in reserves. What you've seen is a fraction of their force. I'm optimistic, but pass what you're smoking. EU isn't happening (anytime soon). NATO isn't happening (at least not with Putin's regime). There isn't a point where NATO steps in with a no-fly. I just don't see it. But I'm just an internet warrior turned economic and strategic military expert in the past 48 hours.
What's the lifeline from China looking seems to be the economic question. Russia selling some of their gold that they've been stockpiling?
Twice an Aggie said:
Russia has committed over 75% of their forces and already begged for more from other countries. They cannot sustain losses forever and their economy hangs by a thread.
I can't tell if this is what you mean but want to clarify. Russia has not committed over 75% of their forces, it is 75% of the force staged at the border. Correct?
Agthatbuilds said:TheCougarHunter said:
The Russians are committing war crimes and have started rocket and artillery bombardments against inhabited cities.
I know nobody wants a WW3 but it's time to actually ****ing do something.
Follow this guy if you want to see the aftermath of Russian policy
https://twitter.com/ignis_fatum
I haven't posted his stuff because it's too graphic for texags. But, he links to a lot of alleged videos from this fight
Following. Thanks for sharing.
Oh, and F'k Putin and anyone that supports him.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
I Have Spoken said:Twice an Aggie said:
Russia has committed over 75% of their forces and already begged for more from other countries. They cannot sustain losses forever and their economy hangs by a thread.
I can't tell if this is what you mean but want to clarify. Russia has not committed over 75% of their forces, it is 75% of the force staged at the border. Correct?
Correct it's 75% of their mobilized force. It takes a lot to stage a full scale mobilization like this
RangerRick9211 said:Goldman assigned a 5-10% chance probability of regime change.FriscoKid said:Agree. Putin is done one way or the other.Keegan99 said:ChemEAg08 said:Beat40 said:
Here's my question:
At this point, where's the off-ramp?
It ain't pretty… Putin gets a good chunk of ukraine or overthrown from within with significant damage to Ukraine and surrounding nations.
You think the US and the rest of the world turn off the sanctions for anything other than a full withdrawal by Putin?
In other words, Putin gets permanent gain in territory for temporary economic pain?
I don't see how Russia is anything but a pariah economically and diplomatically as long as Putin is in charge.
It was on a call this morning with HNW clients per WSJ.
They also cited, "Goldman put a 1% chance on the use of nuclear weapons" and a resulting "total loss of the S&P 500." So, fun.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-28/card/wall-street-struggles-to-chart-black-swan-risk-zS5U8hx0XGwYEopbBEZE?mod=article_inline
1% chance we are all toast. That is disturbing.
nm, already answered
Agreed won't post here too graphic but clearly Russia is directly shelling heavily populated civilian areas......
Be warned. It's pretty nauseating
GAC06 said:jabberwalkie09 said:GAC06 said:wbt5845 said:
Guys - a lot - and I mean A LOT - of F-35As have been deployed to Eastern Europe over the weekend. Biggest mobilization I've seen since the Gulf War.
And Iraq 2.0
I know we have deployed more assets to the area but how many have we deployed and what's the make up?
I'm curious too. This article said there would be 50 US F-35's in Europe but it could be false plus it's four days old.
https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2022/02/24/us-nato-air-forces-mobilize-as-war-comes-to-europe/
The article leads me to believe it's just 50 planes total in Europe/at the RAF base and they moved a half dozen. We moved some F-15's from England over that were due to rotate back iirc. I can't imagine that that assets in the UK would get over there fast enough in case something happened.
Still trying to tactically get my arms around the necessity for the Russians to actually take Kiev. I don't think there is any puppet government they could install at this point that would have any legitimacy with the populace. They are going to bleed severely trying get in there, tie up a bunch of troop occupying and expend military resources trying to provide for the population there if infrastructure gets destroyed.
Why don't they just bypass to the west and link up with the forces moving north from Odessa. Effectively pinch the country in two. They will still have to deal with the western half of Ukraine with a final defense being made at Lviv. They can regroup and resupply before biting that off as that the those forces are likely to very well supplied from the NATO.
Why don't they just bypass to the west and link up with the forces moving north from Odessa. Effectively pinch the country in two. They will still have to deal with the western half of Ukraine with a final defense being made at Lviv. They can regroup and resupply before biting that off as that the those forces are likely to very well supplied from the NATO.
2wealfth Man said:
Still trying to tactically get my arms around the necessity for the Russians to actually take Kiev. I don't think there is any puppet government they could install at this point that would have any legitimacy with the populace. They are going to bleed severely trying get in there, tie up a bunch of troop occupying and expend military resources trying to provide for the population there if infrastructure gets destroyed.
Why don't they just bypass to the west and link up with the forces moving north from Crimea. Effectively pinch the country in two. They will still have to deal with the western half of Ukraine with a final defense being made at Lviv. They can regroup and resupply before biting that off as that the those forces are likely to very well supplied from the NATO.
The Russians will need the cossacks or a new version of brownshirts to come enforce the puppet govt.
Any given year you have about a 2% chance of dying(if your under 50 anyway). So what's another percentage point.wessimo said:RangerRick9211 said:Goldman assigned a 5-10% chance probability of regime change.FriscoKid said:Agree. Putin is done one way or the other.Keegan99 said:ChemEAg08 said:Beat40 said:
Here's my question:
At this point, where's the off-ramp?
It ain't pretty… Putin gets a good chunk of ukraine or overthrown from within with significant damage to Ukraine and surrounding nations.
You think the US and the rest of the world turn off the sanctions for anything other than a full withdrawal by Putin?
In other words, Putin gets permanent gain in territory for temporary economic pain?
I don't see how Russia is anything but a pariah economically and diplomatically as long as Putin is in charge.
It was on a call this morning with HNW clients per WSJ.
They also cited, "Goldman put a 1% chance on the use of nuclear weapons" and a resulting "total loss of the S&P 500." So, fun.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-28/card/wall-street-struggles-to-chart-black-swan-risk-zS5U8hx0XGwYEopbBEZE?mod=article_inline
1% chance we are all toast. That is disturbing.
Because they believe the resistance lies with Ukrainian leadership based in kyiv and that city has significant russian history.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
BigN--00 said:More and more I am thinking we are speaking softly and carrying a big stick. Looking back at the news from the past few months it appears we supplied at least 30 Javelin launchers and 480 missiles since Oct 2021. This is on top of whatever stockpile Ukraine has had since first purchasing them in 2018. Additionally, they were supplied by the British and other baltic states. The European response is due to the success of the past five days, which is in large part due to the US. I watched today's pentagon briefing and he declined to answer a question about what we've sent to Ukraine, but I suspect it is a lot more than what is in the news reports I referenced (and tagged below). Eighty tons is a lot of stuff and 300 Javelins is only 15,000 pounds.aezmvp said:I'm past the 50/50 point on the involvement of NATO in the next two weeks. I don't know if this comes from a colossal **** up by the Russians in trying to attack Ukrainian assets resupplying and hitting NATO troops or a no-fly zone being established. Never though that would happen.FireAg said:
Are we not at the point where we are playing a game of semantics at this point?
Words matter...
Intentions matter...
But actions also matter...
The only thing NATO hasn't done to this point is commit a single NATO soldier to cross over the Ukrainian border...
But NATO sure as hell is giving them everything else the Ukes need to wage war against Russia...
This whole thing is one big catch-22 **** sammich...
I am frankly astonished that Europe has responded so forcefully. America isn't leading here because a total lack of leadership at the top and total confusion about a goal here. I get the second one for sure. But we are not getting ahead of events here. Not even a little bit. Name a single thing that the US has been out in front on? Intelligence? Good job we got that out first but ever since Europe and even Canada is way out in front.
I think pretty quickly here Russia is going to start shelling and thermobaric assaults on Kyiv and Kharkiv. And while that might end up toppling Putin, I'm not sure it will be fast enough to stave off an accident or an intervention.
Putin is clearly frustrated. The sanctions and support after being pretty unimpressive on day one have ramped up at an impressive rate. Russia WILL retaliate. They've closed their markets and probably will through at least Wednesday. I'm betting they will seize Western assets in Russia in the next several days and nationalize them.
After that Belarus will enter the war more fully pushing towards Kovel. That will also change the calculation. After this... we will see. But I'm betting it's going to get a lot more crazy in the near future.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/26/ukraine-missile-russia-baltics-biden/
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-30-anti-tank-javelin-systems/31604802.html
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/01/baltic-nations-sending-us-made-stingers-javelins-to-ukraine/
I agree, I think we do not want to make this US vs Russia thing and if we were to visably be out in front that is exactly what people would see.
they can believe whatever about history but they are not making sound strategic decisions; those decisions will have real consequences on the ground. Guess it is a fog of war thing.JFABNRGR said:
Because they believe the resistance lies with Ukrainian leadership based in kyiv and that city has significant russian history.
My guess is that supply lines get too long to protect. Especially if air cover is coming in from Poland on the side of the Ukrainians. Maybe?2wealfth Man said:
Still trying to tactically get my arms around the necessity for the Russians to actually take Kiev. I don't think there is any puppet government they could install at this point that would have any legitimacy with the populace. They are going to bleed severely trying get in there, tie up a bunch of troop occupying and expend military resources trying to provide for the population there if infrastructure gets destroyed.
Why don't they just bypass to the west and link up with the forces moving north from Odessa. Effectively pinch the country in two. They will still have to deal with the western half of Ukraine with a final defense being made at Lviv. They can regroup and resupply before biting that off as that the those forces are likely to very well supplied from the NATO.
The Russian "spiritual" rationale - kiev is at its core Russian.
wbt5845 said:
Guys - a lot - and I mean A LOT - of F-35As have been deployed to Eastern Europe over the weekend. Biggest mobilization I've seen since the Gulf War.
I know my family friend who's Commander over Marine Corps Command VMA-223 Cherry Point are headed over to Europe today.
Agthatbuilds said:
Be warned. It's pretty nauseating
I've seen. I didn't think I could hate Putin more but I do now.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
Would be a nice opportunity to test the F-35 in a live combat mission, especially the strike role!
Apologies if previously posted. I'm getting sick of threats.
Well this is spicy.. but at least right now it’s not too scary of a threat from what we have been seeing in the battlefield. https://t.co/ciGqZ6HPcw
— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) February 28, 2022
Average Ukrainians halt an oncoming Russian column.
— The New Voice of Ukraine (@NewVoiceUkraine) February 28, 2022
Video was sent by the eyewitnesses pic.twitter.com/KpZdiA0dEs
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