ttu_85 said:

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Demosthenes81 said:

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AgBQ-00 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Ukes getting goodies from the Italians.

NEWS: Italian defensive hardare to Ukraine should foresee: AT systems (AT weapons, mines), FIM92 Stinger MANPADS systems, thousands of weapons as heavy machineguns Browning and inconic medium ones MG42/59 and all their ammunitions, plus personal protective equipment.@ANSA says. pic.twitter.com/AC6MxZae9U

— Ciro Nappi (@CiroNappi6) February 28, 2022

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Gotta be honest Had no clue MG-42s were still in service anywhere.

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Methinks Ukraine is becoming the neighborhood garage sale for cleaning out old munitions.

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Maybe. I dont know about you guys but I wouldn't want to get hit with a burst from a MG-39 much less MG-42 fire. Maybe old but still very effective if deployed correctly.

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Yup. Particularly if employed in close quarters in the middle of Kyiv.. Nasty old gun. Germans have a real gift for making weapons.

GAC06 said:

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Robk said:

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Bulgaria will give Ukraine 14 Su-25 & 16 MiG-29 fighter jets, Poland will give it 28 MiG-29s & Slovakia will give it 12 MiG-29s. More importantly--given Russian missile strikes on military airbases--they can fly missions over Ukraine from Poland https://t.co/MKQZ4lAFUe

— Alec Luhn (@ASLuhn) February 28, 2022

Assuming true, then flying out Poland would seem like a pretty big thing.

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If true, expect missiles headed for the Polish airbase and a wider conflict. Maybe we'll see whether the contentious missile defense in Poland is up and running and effective

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This was my first thought as well. I never thought I'd see a time when you'd have a safety zone during war where you couldn't be attacked. Figured the last time I'd see this was in grade school playing tag.

Rossticus said:

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Sooooo… speaking of escalation… this could mean nothing or everything if it comes to fruition. Hold on to your butts.

Tomorrow Finland will begin a Parliamentary Discussion to join the NATO Alliance, this could take weeks or only a few hours it just depends on how the Finnish Government is feeling, NATO has already said Finland can be admitted to the Alliance within 24 Hours after a decision.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 28, 2022

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I'm sure that happens by lunch tomorrow.

P.U.T.U said:

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FAE and vacuum bombs are the same thing.

We also use cluster munitions which are also against the Geneva convention.

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Depends on where you're using them. Deploying against civilians indiscriminately is a big no-no but used appropriately against combatants is perfectly fine IIRC.

NEW: The #Russian military is reorganizing its efforts in an attempt to remedy poor planning and execution based on erroneous assumptions about #Ukrainians’ will and ability to resist. Click here to read the report and see our map: https://t.co/SixcM3Zs0A pic.twitter.com/B4IHKlIjla

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 28, 2022

Russias "territory" is growing

Reservists and militias are setting up checkpoints every few miles between Odessa and Kyiv.

Via - @JordanFlrtn
pic.twitter.com/xYO1f8de1c

— C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) February 28, 2022

True.

Rossticus said:

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Sooooo… speaking of escalation… this could mean nothing or everything if it comes to fruition. Hold on to your butts.

Tomorrow Finland will begin a Parliamentary Discussion to join the NATO Alliance, this could take weeks or only a few hours it just depends on how the Finnish Government is feeling, NATO has already said Finland can be admitted to the Alliance within 24 Hours after a decision.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 28, 2022

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There is another citizens' initiative for the process of accession to #NATO without a referendum; more than 17.000 signatories in just one day. However, there is no process for membership begun by the President of the Republic and the government as of yet.https://t.co/0oN0UKzC5O

— Henrik Rydenfelt (@HRydenfelt) February 28, 2022

Agthatbuilds said:

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NEW: The #Russian military is reorganizing its efforts in an attempt to remedy poor planning and execution based on erroneous assumptions about #Ukrainians’ will and ability to resist. Click here to read the report and see our map: https://t.co/SixcM3Zs0A pic.twitter.com/B4IHKlIjla

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 28, 2022

Russias "territory" is growing

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Also have to recognize that there's going to be a lot of open land and smaller villages between places like Kherson and Malikovae (spelling?) on the road to Kyiv from the south.

Russian Multiple Rocket Systems reportedly heading South towards the Ukrainian Capitol city of Kyiv tonight, we could see a Mass Bombardment of the Western Outskirts of the City in the next couple of hours. https://t.co/RO2alBQIEs

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 28, 2022

Fully loaded Russian BM-21 GRAD unit on the move in this convoy in Ukraine. Expect the Russians to do another round of MLRS barrage… pic.twitter.com/trb7Uozgoj

— CaucasusWarReport (@Caucasuswar) February 28, 2022

Thanks for the clarification

Not good at all

Beat40 said:

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Here's my question:

At this point, where's the off-ramp?

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Last week, i would have said Ukraine and some other former Soviet blocs. Now, I think if Putin gets Kyiv, he stops because his military has been embarrassed on the world stage and he has galvanized all of Europe and the west against him. But who knows, because the dude is crazy.

FireAg said:

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Are we not at the point where we are playing a game of semantics at this point?

Words matter...

Intentions matter...

But actions also matter...

The only thing NATO hasn't done to this point is commit a single NATO soldier to cross over the Ukrainian border...

But NATO sure as hell is giving them everything else the Ukes need to wage war against Russia...

This whole thing is one big catch-22 **** sammich...

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I'm past the 50/50 point on the involvement of NATO in the next two weeks. I don't know if this comes from a colossal **** up by the Russians in trying to attack Ukrainian assets resupplying and hitting NATO troops or a no-fly zone being established. Never though that would happen.

I am frankly astonished that Europe has responded so forcefully. America isn't leading here because a total lack of leadership at the top and total confusion about a goal here. I get the second one for sure. But we are not getting ahead of events here. Not even a little bit. Name a single thing that the US has been out in front on? Intelligence? Good job we got that out first but ever since Europe and even Canada is way out in front.

I think pretty quickly here Russia is going to start shelling and thermobaric assaults on Kyiv and Kharkiv. And while that might end up toppling Putin, I'm not sure it will be fast enough to stave off an accident or an intervention.

Putin is clearly frustrated. The sanctions and support after being pretty unimpressive on day one have ramped up at an impressive rate. Russia WILL retaliate. They've closed their markets and probably will through at least Wednesday. I'm betting they will seize Western assets in Russia in the next several days and nationalize them.

After that Belarus will enter the war more fully pushing towards Kovel. That will also change the calculation. After this... we will see. But I'm betting it's going to get a lot more crazy in the near future.

I just can't see the west giving up all of Ukraine anymore. What would China learn from that lesson?

Secondly, I've been the bus driver on the Russian military being embarrassed bus. I'm not sure that's the case any longer. I think they went in with old equipment and conscripts and got punched in the face. Their strategy definitely has been odd and unRussian and has led to big losses

But, we'll see what's happens over the next 2 or 3 days.

Keegan99 said:

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ChemEAg08 said:

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Beat40 said:

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Here's my question:

At this point, where's the off-ramp?

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It ain't pretty… Putin gets a good chunk of ukraine or overthrown from within with significant damage to Ukraine and surrounding nations.

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You think the US and the rest of the world turn off the sanctions for anything other than a full withdrawal by Putin?

In other words, Putin gets permanent gain in territory for temporary economic pain?


I don't see how Russia is anything but a pariah economically and diplomatically as long as Putin is in charge.

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Agree. Putin is done one way or the other.

#Russia movements provide insight into their plan to encircle #Kyiv

The mission from #Sumy & #Chernihiv is to eventually control east Kyiv,moving cautiously to evade major resistance

The mission from north is ASAP control of west Kyiv,so they are moving far more aggressively

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) February 28, 2022

FriscoKid said:

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Keegan99 said:

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ChemEAg08 said:

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Beat40 said:

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Here's my question:

At this point, where's the off-ramp?

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It ain't pretty… Putin gets a good chunk of ukraine or overthrown from within with significant damage to Ukraine and surrounding nations.

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You think the US and the rest of the world turn off the sanctions for anything other than a full withdrawal by Putin?

In other words, Putin gets permanent gain in territory for temporary economic pain?


I don't see how Russia is anything but a pariah economically and diplomatically as long as Putin is in charge.

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Agree. Putin is done one way or the other.

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Goldman assigned a 5-10% chance probability of regime change.

It was on a call this morning with HNW clients per WSJ.

They also cited, "Goldman put a 1% chance on the use of nuclear weapons" and a resulting "total loss of the S&P 500." So, fun.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-28/card/wall-street-struggles-to-chart-black-swan-risk-zS5U8hx0XGwYEopbBEZE?mod=article_inline

P.U.T.U said:

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FAE and vacuum bombs are the same thing.

We also use cluster munitions which are also against the Geneva convention.

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Nothing in the Geneva Convention about cluster munitions. There is one just for them that neither us or Russia signed.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_Cluster_Munitions

aezmvp said:

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FireAg said:

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Are we not at the point where we are playing a game of semantics at this point?

Words matter...

Intentions matter...

But actions also matter...

The only thing NATO hasn't done to this point is commit a single NATO soldier to cross over the Ukrainian border...

But NATO sure as hell is giving them everything else the Ukes need to wage war against Russia...

This whole thing is one big catch-22 **** sammich...

---

I'm past the 50/50 point on the involvement of NATO in the next two weeks. I don't know if this comes from a colossal **** up by the Russians in trying to attack Ukrainian assets resupplying and hitting NATO troops or a no-fly zone being established. Never though that would happen.

I am frankly astonished that Europe has responded so forcefully. America isn't leading here because a total lack of leadership at the top and total confusion about a goal here. I get the second one for sure. But we are not getting ahead of events here. Not even a little bit. Name a single thing that the US has been out in front on? Intelligence? Good job we got that out first but ever since Europe and even Canada is way out in front.

I think pretty quickly here Russia is going to start shelling and thermobaric assaults on Kyiv and Kharkiv. And while that might end up toppling Putin, I'm not sure it will be fast enough to stave off an accident or an intervention.

Putin is clearly frustrated. The sanctions and support after being pretty unimpressive on day one have ramped up at an impressive rate. Russia WILL retaliate. They've closed their markets and probably will through at least Wednesday. I'm betting they will seize Western assets in Russia in the next several days and nationalize them.

After that Belarus will enter the war more fully pushing towards Kovel. That will also change the calculation. After this... we will see. But I'm betting it's going to get a lot more crazy in the near future.

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More and more I am thinking we are speaking softly and carrying a big stick. Looking back at the news from the past few months it appears we supplied at least 30 Javelin launchers and 480 missiles since Oct 2021. This is on top of whatever stockpile Ukraine has had since first purchasing them in 2018. Additionally, they were supplied by the British and other baltic states. The European response is due to the success of the past five days, which is in large part due to the US. I watched today's pentagon briefing and he declined to answer a question about what we've sent to Ukraine, but I suspect it is a lot more than what is in the news reports I referenced (and tagged below). Eighty tons is a lot of stuff and 300 Javelins is only 15,000 pounds.


https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/26/ukraine-missile-russia-baltics-biden/
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-30-anti-tank-javelin-systems/31604802.html
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/01/baltic-nations-sending-us-made-stingers-javelins-to-ukraine/

Agthatbuilds said:

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Ukraine capitulation or putin assassinated, imo

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There HAS to be some military leaders thinking about a Valkyrie situation right now. There is no way that all of them are behind this insanity.

[Please put that on the other thread. Thank you. -Staff]

wbt5845 said:

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Guys - a lot - and I mean A LOT - of F-35As have been deployed to Eastern Europe over the weekend. Biggest mobilization I've seen since the Gulf War.

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And Iraq 2.0