***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,551,185 Views | 47731 Replies | Last: 11 hrs ago by Waffledynamics
TRM
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AggieLit
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twk said:

AggieLit said:

twk said:

AggieLit said:

JobSecurity said:

This is the next phase

If it becomes a protracted siege designed to starve the population like at Leningrad, you've got to cut off gas purchases from Russia. You've got to make them starve before Kiev starves. I have a feeling that right now Germany is studying and discussing with other world leaders how they could get enough gas to survive next winter without Russia.

It's the other way around. If the sanctions bite too hard, Putin will cut off the gas and try to freeze Europe. They might just get through this winter, but without the ability to build stores of gas this summer, next winter would be bleak. Gas revenue is not as big for Russia as oil revenue (true pretty much everywhere) so there is a real risk that Putin would try to use it as leverage to get the West to back off sanctions.
I think that at this point, loss of revenue would hurt him more than high prices would hurt Europe. Otherwise he would have cut off oil and gas supplies to punish them for sanctions and supplying Ukraine. The fact that he is threatening nukes instead says to me that he can't afford to lose that revenue.
Short term revenue is not really a factor. With the chaos that is resulting from freezing Russia out of foreign markets, I'm not sure what they would do with the money. Their long term concern would be that Europe would decide to find other sources for gas, and the resulting loss of leverage. Somewhat like the US being reluctant to cut Russia out of SWIFT for fear that they would team up with China to set up an alternative payment system. Sometimes, leverage can only be used once, and then it's lost for good.
I think the short term revenue must be a factor to some degree, otherwise they would not be exercising capital controls and defaulting on debt. The fact that they are destroying their country's credit rating in order to keep money inside makes me think they really could not afford to lose their remaining capital inflows
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Irish 2.0
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Charpie
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Irish 2.0 said:


OOOOHHHH...I wonder what they did
Love Gun
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TRM said:



Taking it back to the old school!
CanyonAg77
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74OA said:

CanyonAg77 said:

RangerRick9211 said:

So what's up with E4-B (Doomsday plane) just circling in Lincoln?

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=adfeb3
https://www.flightradar24.com/multiview/2af98ceb

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_plane

It's always circling somewhere. They're based out of Tinker AFB in OKC, we see them on ADS-B over the Panhandle all the time.

Nothing to worry about, it's SOP, though I expect it's a little more tense on the plane than usual.
Offutt AFB, Nebraska.

Sorry. Confused them with the Navy E6, which do fly out of Tinker
GarryowenAg
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aggiehawg said:

Jock 07 said:

aggiehawg said:

JobSecurity said:


What is a deconfliction mechanism?


Usually when two rival powers are operating near each other keeping lines of communication open to prevent any miscalculation on either side's part. Doesn't really make much sense in this scenario though
Thanks.

Wonder if a form of the Berlin Airlift for food, medicine, etc. is under consideration for Kyiv?
Not at this time; the air is too hot.
Keegan99
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Welp. Expect Russia to expel a cadre of US diplomats shortly.
JB!98
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TRM said:


It is great that these countries are supplying UK. I have to think that some of this is purely symbolic. 2500 assault rifles and 150,000 rounds of ammunition. Here is your AK and 2 full magazines, go do your best! The anti-armor is good, but eventually UK is going to run out of trained trigger pullers.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
Irish 2.0
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Keegan99 said:

Welp. Expect Russia to expel a cadre of US diplomats shortly.
They were told to leave already by the state department.
Irish 2.0
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That's why they've been passing them out to the civilians. Anyone that wants a firearm is handed a firearm in Ukraine right now
TRM
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I don't think this has been posted.

Charpie
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Found out
jabberwalkie09
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Charpie said:

Irish 2.0 said:


OOOOHHHH...I wonder what they did

I'm going to go out on a limb and say espionage related activities. But really this should have happened at the first go around.
Keegan99
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Irish 2.0 said:

Keegan99 said:

Welp. Expect Russia to expel a cadre of US diplomats shortly.
They were told to leave already by the state department.


No. We're not shuttering our embassies and consulates in Russia.

The Russians will send people home that we don't want sent home.
File5
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Are these effective and easy to use? Looks like it based on the picture I've seen, but it almost seems that these countries are giving away all their old crap. Are they single shot or reloadable?
jabberwalkie09
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Looks like my guess was right.
shiftyandquick
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JB!98
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Irish 2.0 said:

That's why they've been passing them out to the civilians. Anyone that wants a firearm is handed a firearm in Ukraine right now
That's great, but how fast can you burn through 2-30 round mags on the range? Now think you had a full auto and 2-30 rnd mags? I realize I am being obtuse and that every little bit helps, but we are really beating around the bush with all of these "supplies". I am not even sure what I am advocating for at this point, but it seems symbolic to me at this point.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
Keegan99
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Good threatd. Thank you.

Last post is of note:

GAC06
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ArmyAg2002 said:

ATX_AG_08 said:

Dorm 15 said:

Speaking of tactics, can drones effectively take out an armored column?


They can, but doesn't look like Ukraine has enough of them. Everyone I've seen hit a column is a single aimed for the middle. Kind of frustrating to watch honestly.


I keep wondering why the middle of the convoy? That's not how you trap and destroy a convoy.


The few videos I've seen, they seem to be targeting fuel trucks and SAM's. My guess is that with the small munitions those little drones can carry, perhaps they're hitting stuff they think most likely to result in secondaries
rab79
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TRM said:

I don't think this has been posted.


Kiev live cam 1 on a loop of some type, showing daylight video.

Quote:


ETA update black screen now.
NO AMNESTY!

in order for democrats, liberals, progressives et al to continue their illogical belief systems they have to pretend not to know a lot of things; by pretending "not to know" there is no guilt, no actual connection to conscience. Denial of truth allows easier trespass.
G Martin 87
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JB!98 said:

Irish 2.0 said:

That's why they've been passing them out to the civilians. Anyone that wants a firearm is handed a firearm in Ukraine right now
That's great, but how fast can you burn through 2-30 round mags on the range? Now think you had a full auto and 2-30 rnd mags? I realize I am being obtuse and that every little bit helps, but we are really beating around the bush with all of these "supplies". I am not even sure what I am advocating for at this point, but it seems symbolic to me at this point.
More like walking a tightrope. Help the Ukes, but not too much. Nobody wants this to escalate outside of Ukraine.
Line Ate Member
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ATX_AG_08 said:

Dorm 15 said:

Speaking of tactics, can drones effectively take out an armored column?


They can, but doesn't look like Ukraine has enough of them. Everyone I've seen hit a column is a single aimed for the middle. Kind of frustrating to watch honestly.
Moat likely a stupid question, but can the Ukes go cartel style and hook up "bombs" to normal drones? I am sure a lot will fail and be shot, but even if you can slow that column down enough to damage infrastructure down the road, I would think it would be enough.

Especially at night.
FireAg
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Which falls first, Kyiv or the Russian economy?

Feels like there is a race against the clock for both...which one succumbs first?
TRM
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Tweet is about 2 hours and 20 minutes old. Go back about 3:15 you'll see some trouble with that camera,
Charpie
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Russian economy
Irish 2.0
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FireAg said:

Which falls first, Kyiv or the Russian economy?

Feels like there is a race against the clock for both...which one succumbs first?
Considering the Russians refuse to open their markets the last two days, I think the Russian economy already fell.
Premium
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GarryowenAg said:

aggiehawg said:

Jock 07 said:

aggiehawg said:

JobSecurity said:


What is a deconfliction mechanism?


Usually when two rival powers are operating near each other keeping lines of communication open to prevent any miscalculation on either side's part. Doesn't really make much sense in this scenario though
Thanks.

Wonder if a form of the Berlin Airlift for food, medicine, etc. is under consideration for Kyiv?
Not at this time; the air is too hot.


Nothing an unmanned SpaxceX rocket couldn't handle
74OA
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Line Ate Member said:

ATX_AG_08 said:

Dorm 15 said:

Speaking of tactics, can drones effectively take out an armored column?


They can, but doesn't look like Ukraine has enough of them. Everyone I've seen hit a column is a single aimed for the middle. Kind of frustrating to watch honestly.
Moat likely a stupid question, but can the Ukes go cartel style and hook up "bombs" to normal drones? I am sure a lot will fail and be shot, but even if you can slow that column down enough to damage infrastructure down the road, I would think it would be enough.

Especially at night.
The TB2 has a payload of 330lbs, so not much carrying capacity.
jabberwalkie09
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GAC06 said:

ArmyAg2002 said:

ATX_AG_08 said:

Dorm 15 said:

Speaking of tactics, can drones effectively take out an armored column?


They can, but doesn't look like Ukraine has enough of them. Everyone I've seen hit a column is a single aimed for the middle. Kind of frustrating to watch honestly.


I keep wondering why the middle of the convoy? That's not how you trap and destroy a convoy.


The few videos I've seen, they seem to be targeting fuel trucks and SAM's. My guess is that with the small munitions those little drones can carry, perhaps they're hitting stuff they think most likely to result in secondaries

Other videos would support this assertion. One shows a Buk system attack where the TELAR was attacked, exploded, causing the TEL in close proximity to also eventually explode.
Rapier108
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akaggie05 said:

Rapier108 said:

CanyonAg77 said:

RangerRick9211 said:

So what's up with E4-B (Doomsday plane) just circling in Lincoln?

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=adfeb3
https://www.flightradar24.com/multiview/2af98ceb

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_plane

It's always circling somewhere. They're based out of Tinker AFB in OKC, we see them on ADS-B over the Panhandle all the time.

Nothing to worry about, it's SOP, though I expect it's a little more tense on the plane than usual.
Looks like it met up with a KC-135 for a short while so perhaps a training flight.


That was an RC-135 Rivet Joint (SIGINT platform). They are also based at Offutt.
Are you talking about INDY75? Flightradar24 said it is a KC-135R Stratotanker.

https://www.flightradar24.com/multiview/2af9624e
B-1 83
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Where are those foreign aircraft we were so joyous about yesterday, and what are they doing?
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
Demosthenes81
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74OA said:

Line Ate Member said:

ATX_AG_08 said:

Dorm 15 said:

Speaking of tactics, can drones effectively take out an armored column?


They can, but doesn't look like Ukraine has enough of them. Everyone I've seen hit a column is a single aimed for the middle. Kind of frustrating to watch honestly.
Moat likely a stupid question, but can the Ukes go cartel style and hook up "bombs" to normal drones? I am sure a lot will fail and be shot, but even if you can slow that column down enough to damage infrastructure down the road, I would think it would be enough.

Especially at night.
The TB2 has a payload of 330lbs, so not much carrying capacity.
A Hellfire missile weighs about 100 pounds.
Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
buzzardb267
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Makes you wonder if the Ukes take down cameras that show "too much"?
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