Dorm 15 said:

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Speaking of tactics, can drones effectively take out an armored column?

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They can, but doesn't look like Ukraine has enough of them. Everyone I've seen hit a column is a single aimed for the middle. Kind of frustrating to watch honestly.

AggieLit said:

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JobSecurity said:

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This is the next phase

What I hear from Kyiv is that some foodstuff is still available, but not much. Below, a milk & cheese section of a supermarket. The most serious problem seems to be medication. Most pharmacies are closed, with lines at those still operating. Today, the Kyiv metro was operational. pic.twitter.com/BJknXSkM8O

— Andreas Umland (@UmlandAndreas) February 28, 2022

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If it becomes a protracted siege designed to starve the population like at Leningrad, you've got to cut off gas purchases from Russia. You've got to make them starve before Kiev starves. I have a feeling that right now Germany is studying and discussing with other world leaders how they could get enough gas to survive next winter without Russia.

---

It's the other way around. If the sanctions bite too hard, Putin will cut off the gas and try to freeze Europe. They might just get through this winter, but without the ability to build stores of gas this summer, next winter would be bleak. Gas revenue is not as big for Russia as oil revenue (true pretty much everywhere) so there is a real risk that Putin would try to use it as leverage to get the West to back off sanctions.

Could getting them more armed drones be more effective than piloted aircraft?

CanyonAg77 said:

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RangerRick9211 said:

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So what's up with E4-B (Doomsday plane) just circling in Lincoln?

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=adfeb3
https://www.flightradar24.com/multiview/2af98ceb

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_plane

---

It's always circling somewhere. They're based out of Tinker AFB in OKC, we see them on ADS-B over the Panhandle all the time.

Nothing to worry about, it's SOP, though I expect it's a little more tense on the plane than usual.

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Looks like it met up with a KC-135 for a short while so perhaps a training flight.

Dorm 15 said:

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Could getting them more armed drones be more effective than piloted aircraft?

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Depends on who has the joysticks

Pentagon is exploring a deconfliction mechanism with Russia over Ukraine: Pentagon spokesperson

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) February 28, 2022

74OA said:

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CanyonAg77 said:

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RangerRick9211 said:

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So what's up with E4-B (Doomsday plane) just circling in Lincoln?

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=adfeb3
https://www.flightradar24.com/multiview/2af98ceb

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_plane

---

It's always circling somewhere. They're based out of Tinker AFB in OKC, we see them on ADS-B over the Panhandle all the time.

Nothing to worry about, it's SOP, though I expect it's a little more tense on the plane than usual.

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Offutt AFB, Nebraska.

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Correct, STRATCOM asset

Breaking: A large part of Mariupol, a strategic port city with a population of nearly 500,000, is without power after a Russian strike on a substation. Russian troops have reportedly surrounded the city. (Via ZN)

— PM Breaking News (@PMBreakingNews) February 28, 2022

ATX_AG_08 said:

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Dorm 15 said:

---

Speaking of tactics, can drones effectively take out an armored column?

---

They can, but doesn't look like Ukraine has enough of them. Everyone I've seen hit a column is a single aimed for the middle. Kind of frustrating to watch honestly.

---

I keep wondering why the middle of the convoy? That's not how you trap and destroy a convoy.

ATX_AG_08 said:

---

Dorm 15 said:

---

Speaking of tactics, can drones effectively take out an armored column?

---

They can, but doesn't look like Ukraine has enough of them. Everyone I've seen hit a column is a single aimed for the middle. Kind of frustrating to watch honestly.

---

It would take a lot of sorties because the drones don't have enough weapons. In attacking various spots in the middle, they can stall more parts of the convoy and make traffic jams. It also leaves more crap to clear from the roads in more places. Also a psychological component because everyone in the convoy is wondering if their vehicle is next.

The problem is Ukraine can't get enough ground forces with ATM's to attack the convoys and lay real ambushes. They could hit armor with ATM's, but also fuel and supply trucks with small arms to do even more damage.

JobSecurity said:

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Pentagon is exploring a deconfliction mechanism with Russia over Ukraine: Pentagon spokesperson

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) February 28, 2022

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What is a deconfliction mechanism?

twk said:

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AggieLit said:

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JobSecurity said:

---

This is the next phase

What I hear from Kyiv is that some foodstuff is still available, but not much. Below, a milk & cheese section of a supermarket. The most serious problem seems to be medication. Most pharmacies are closed, with lines at those still operating. Today, the Kyiv metro was operational. pic.twitter.com/BJknXSkM8O

— Andreas Umland (@UmlandAndreas) February 28, 2022

---

If it becomes a protracted siege designed to starve the population like at Leningrad, you've got to cut off gas purchases from Russia. You've got to make them starve before Kiev starves. I have a feeling that right now Germany is studying and discussing with other world leaders how they could get enough gas to survive next winter without Russia.

---

It's the other way around. If the sanctions bite too hard, Putin will cut off the gas and try to freeze Europe. They might just get through this winter, but without the ability to build stores of gas this summer, next winter would be bleak. Gas revenue is not as big for Russia as oil revenue (true pretty much everywhere) so there is a real risk that Putin would try to use it as leverage to get the West to back off sanctions.

---

I think that at this point, loss of revenue would hurt him more than high prices would hurt Europe. Otherwise he would have cut off oil and gas supplies to punish them for sanctions and supplying Ukraine. The fact that he is threatening nukes instead says to me that he can't afford to lose that revenue.

JobSecurity said:

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Pentagon is exploring a deconfliction mechanism with Russia over Ukraine: Pentagon spokesperson

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) February 28, 2022

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Glad there was a question in that tread as to wtf that is supposed to mean.

Apparently it just means US and ruskies establish a constant line of communication to ensure we don't 'accidentally' attack each other

AggieLit said:

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twk said:

---

AggieLit said:

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JobSecurity said:

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This is the next phase

What I hear from Kyiv is that some foodstuff is still available, but not much. Below, a milk & cheese section of a supermarket. The most serious problem seems to be medication. Most pharmacies are closed, with lines at those still operating. Today, the Kyiv metro was operational. pic.twitter.com/BJknXSkM8O

— Andreas Umland (@UmlandAndreas) February 28, 2022

---

If it becomes a protracted siege designed to starve the population like at Leningrad, you've got to cut off gas purchases from Russia. You've got to make them starve before Kiev starves. I have a feeling that right now Germany is studying and discussing with other world leaders how they could get enough gas to survive next winter without Russia.

---

It's the other way around. If the sanctions bite too hard, Putin will cut off the gas and try to freeze Europe. They might just get through this winter, but without the ability to build stores of gas this summer, next winter would be bleak. Gas revenue is not as big for Russia as oil revenue (true pretty much everywhere) so there is a real risk that Putin would try to use it as leverage to get the West to back off sanctions.

---

I think that at this point, loss of revenue would hurt him more than high prices would hurt Europe. Otherwise he would have cut off oil and gas supplies to punish them for sanctions and supplying Ukraine. The fact that he is threatening nukes instead says to me that he can't afford to lose that revenue.

---

Short term revenue is not really a factor. With the chaos that is resulting from freezing Russia out of foreign markets, I'm not sure what they would do with the money. Their long term concern would be that Europe would decide to find other sources for gas, and the resulting loss of leverage. Somewhat like the US being reluctant to cut Russia out of SWIFT for fear that they would team up with China to set up an alternative payment system. Sometimes, leverage can only be used once, and then it's lost for good.

This is going to hurt Russian Frontline Troops who are already Hurting for Fuel very severely, this also could have cause damage to this Rail-Line and/or caused the damaged Train to Block the Line, making it much more difficult to get More Fuel or Supplies to the Front. https://t.co/jOp9WTyzqx

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 28, 2022

The Rosgvardia troops in Berdyansk are reportedly from Dagestan. https://t.co/7r9Wdq0ans pic.twitter.com/Z8Fly7uiKi

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 28, 2022

Russia using more foreign troops

ArmyAg2002 said:

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ATX_AG_08 said:

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Dorm 15 said:

---

Speaking of tactics, can drones effectively take out an armored column?

---

They can, but doesn't look like Ukraine has enough of them. Everyone I've seen hit a column is a single aimed for the middle. Kind of frustrating to watch honestly.

---

I keep wondering why the middle of the convoy? That's not how you trap and destroy a convoy.

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You target the most dangerous or highest value target. Usually those single strikes are SAMs. Kill everyone of those you see so you can preserve your air strength and freedom of flight.

aggiehawg said:

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JobSecurity said:

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Pentagon is exploring a deconfliction mechanism with Russia over Ukraine: Pentagon spokesperson

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) February 28, 2022

---

What is a deconfliction mechanism?

---

Usually when two rival powers are operating near each other keeping lines of communication open to prevent any miscalculation on either side's part. Doesn't really make much sense in this scenario though

(Reuters) - U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark Warner sats he saw no "immediate threat" within Russia to Putin's government.

Warner told @washingtonpost he "absolutely" expected Putin to step up cyberattacks as the Russian leader presses his invasion of Ukraine.

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) February 28, 2022

ArmyAg2002 said:

---

ATX_AG_08 said:

---

Dorm 15 said:

---

Speaking of tactics, can drones effectively take out an armored column?

---

They can, but doesn't look like Ukraine has enough of them. Everyone I've seen hit a column is a single aimed for the middle. Kind of frustrating to watch honestly.

---

I keep wondering why the middle of the convoy? That's not how you trap and destroy a convoy.

---

I don't think they have troops in close enough proximity or weapons in the sky to trap and destroy. It appears they are going for max damage. Hit the front one you might get 2-3. Hit the middle you may take out 4-5.

92AG10 said:

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ArmyAg2002 said:

---

ATX_AG_08 said:

---

Dorm 15 said:

---

Speaking of tactics, can drones effectively take out an armored column?

---

They can, but doesn't look like Ukraine has enough of them. Everyone I've seen hit a column is a single aimed for the middle. Kind of frustrating to watch honestly.

---

I keep wondering why the middle of the convoy? That's not how you trap and destroy a convoy.

---

You target the most dangerous or highest value target. Usually those single strikes are SAMs. Kill everyone of those you see so you can preserve your air strength and freedom of flight.

---

They're not using their airpower, the way they're using those drones is as a one shot weapon.

As others have said they don't have the available air power, missile teams or artillery in the vicinity to take advantage of the convoys.

Jock 07 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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JobSecurity said:

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Pentagon is exploring a deconfliction mechanism with Russia over Ukraine: Pentagon spokesperson

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) February 28, 2022

---

What is a deconfliction mechanism?

---

Usually when two rival powers are operating near each other keeping lines of communication open to prevent any miscalculation on either side's part. Doesn't really make much sense in this scenario though

---

If it's communication it makes a lot of sense. We have to be in contact with Russia right now.

ChemEAg08 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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JobSecurity said:

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Pentagon is exploring a deconfliction mechanism with Russia over Ukraine: Pentagon spokesperson

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) February 28, 2022

---

What is a deconfliction mechanism?

---

Leftists in the WH think they can just talk and reason with Putin to stop.

It'll predictably not end well.

---

Lol, no. It's more of an agreement between nonenemy forces (in this case the US and Russia) to help avoid military conflicts that might lead to an unwanted/unanticipated escalation. You fly here, we fly there. You sail here, we sail there. We don't shoot at each other. Etc.

twk said:

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AggieLit said:

---

twk said:

---

AggieLit said:

---

JobSecurity said:

---

This is the next phase

What I hear from Kyiv is that some foodstuff is still available, but not much. Below, a milk & cheese section of a supermarket. The most serious problem seems to be medication. Most pharmacies are closed, with lines at those still operating. Today, the Kyiv metro was operational. pic.twitter.com/BJknXSkM8O

— Andreas Umland (@UmlandAndreas) February 28, 2022

---

If it becomes a protracted siege designed to starve the population like at Leningrad, you've got to cut off gas purchases from Russia. You've got to make them starve before Kiev starves. I have a feeling that right now Germany is studying and discussing with other world leaders how they could get enough gas to survive next winter without Russia.

---

It's the other way around. If the sanctions bite too hard, Putin will cut off the gas and try to freeze Europe. They might just get through this winter, but without the ability to build stores of gas this summer, next winter would be bleak. Gas revenue is not as big for Russia as oil revenue (true pretty much everywhere) so there is a real risk that Putin would try to use it as leverage to get the West to back off sanctions.

---

I think that at this point, loss of revenue would hurt him more than high prices would hurt Europe. Otherwise he would have cut off oil and gas supplies to punish them for sanctions and supplying Ukraine. The fact that he is threatening nukes instead says to me that he can't afford to lose that revenue.

---

Short term revenue is not really a factor. With the chaos that is resulting from freezing Russia out of foreign markets, I'm not sure what they would do with the money. Their long term concern would be that Europe would decide to find other sources for gas, and the resulting loss of leverage. Somewhat like the US being reluctant to cut Russia out of SWIFT for fear that they would team up with China to set up an alternative payment system. Sometimes, leverage can only be used once, and then it's lost for good.

---

Except Russia has already been working to that end since 2014 with SPFS. Which was when we initially floated the idea of kicking them out of SWIFT.

ArmyAg2002 said:

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92AG10 said:

---

ArmyAg2002 said:

---

ATX_AG_08 said:

---

Dorm 15 said:

---

Speaking of tactics, can drones effectively take out an armored column?

---

They can, but doesn't look like Ukraine has enough of them. Everyone I've seen hit a column is a single aimed for the middle. Kind of frustrating to watch honestly.

---

I keep wondering why the middle of the convoy? That's not how you trap and destroy a convoy.

---

You target the most dangerous or highest value target. Usually those single strikes are SAMs. Kill everyone of those you see so you can preserve your air strength and freedom of flight.

---

They're not using they airpower, the way they're using those drones is as a one shot weapon.

---

Drones aren't strike fighters. They have a finite amount of onboard ordinance.

You kill the SAM, it doesn't kill your airframes. The Ukrainian forces are absolutely in the air. Those SAM systems can also bring down your drone.....

Jock 07 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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JobSecurity said:

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Pentagon is exploring a deconfliction mechanism with Russia over Ukraine: Pentagon spokesperson

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) February 28, 2022

---

What is a deconfliction mechanism?

---

Usually when two rival powers are operating near each other keeping lines of communication open to prevent any miscalculation on either side's part. Doesn't really make much sense in this scenario though

---

Thanks.

Wonder if a form of the Berlin Airlift for food, medicine, etc. is under consideration for Kyiv?

Rapier108 said:

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CanyonAg77 said:

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RangerRick9211 said:

---

So what's up with E4-B (Doomsday plane) just circling in Lincoln?

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=adfeb3
https://www.flightradar24.com/multiview/2af98ceb

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_plane

---

It's always circling somewhere. They're based out of Tinker AFB in OKC, we see them on ADS-B over the Panhandle all the time.

Nothing to worry about, it's SOP, though I expect it's a little more tense on the plane than usual.

---

Looks like it met up with a KC-135 for a short while so perhaps a training flight.

---

That was an RC-135 Rivet Joint (SIGINT platform). They are also based at Offutt.

dc509 said:

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Jock 07 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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JobSecurity said:

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Pentagon is exploring a deconfliction mechanism with Russia over Ukraine: Pentagon spokesperson

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) February 28, 2022

---

What is a deconfliction mechanism?

---

Usually when two rival powers are operating near each other keeping lines of communication open to prevent any miscalculation on either side's part. Doesn't really make much sense in this scenario though

---

If it's communication it makes a lot of sense. We have to be in contact with Russia right now.

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Absolutely. But when I read deconfliction it usually involves operations, which we're not currently executing. At least overtly.