ttu_85 said:You have long been a good poster that have have enjoyed reading through the years. To be honest, I irritate the hell out of my friends and family and especially my wife with my cold pragmatic take on things. In this case its knowing the Russians always start poorly.Eliminatus said:No, you are right for sure.ttu_85 said:I hope you are right but you are calling your shot 3:00 into the first quarter. This thing is just getting started.Eliminatus said:Alright. This past 12 hours has finally made me call my shot.Captain Positivity said:Todays operations that Russia’s western military district have conducted within Kharkiv, Ukraine are not only confusing but also potentially one of the largest tactical failures we have seen. Nothing supporting, not even BTRs. Once again no communication or coordinated fires.
— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) February 27, 2022
Ukraine is going to survive this IMO. They have taken the best shot that Russia was willing to give and from here on out, I don't see Russia being any more capable from this point forward than they have been without massive reinforcement. Which I am also not so sure we will see either.
A lot of fighting is still ahead but I think we will still see a Ukraine in the future. (Non nuclear consideration)
This war will be examined from every angle possible and the exact reasons will eventually get out but the net result is that Russia was not capable enough to accomplish their goals and looking back with hindsight, they might not have ever been from that first minute they opened fire.
This was a failed strategy that led to failed tactics that reinforced that failed strategy in my eyes. I know this is armchair general'ing but I believe now. I always wanted to but Ukraine bought the time we need and I am convinced the above is just more and more cracks that are becoming obvious in this Russian invasion.
Could you imagine it Jan 1, 1942 and we are on our heels in the Pacific taking one hit after another. Now imagine they had our communication tech- almost real time imagery of war. What would be posted on such threads. I can see it now: 'America and Britain are done.', 'Our navy has been destroyed', 'Japan is going to cake walk to the West Coast', Blah blah.
Not meaning to call you out. Please don't take it personally after all this is the first time in history we get almost real-time unedited unfiltered imagery from a major war zone. Its like watching a football or basketball game. To bad war doesns't work like that.
That is why I stressed my qualifiers as no major reinforcements soon and no Crazy Putin moves that are hard to quantify. With the stuff they have in theater right now and in the very near future, I just don't see them making the Ukes capitulate. Their peak power with their original invasion force has long passed now and the Ukes are still here and gaining hard earned experience and floods of willing defenders that will soon, maybe even right now, be armed more and more with modern weapons designed to kill the biggest threats they are facing now.
They had an estimated sub 200K force from the first minute that has since been spread out and been in constant fighting and maneuvering for over three days. I imagine reinforcements are trickling in but their efforts seem disjointed, piecemeal, and even stupid at times. They have been repulsed in their attempts at Kiev already. The city has stood and the citizens are even more galvanized. They have proven to still be able to attack air threats successfully.
The biggest thing I see so far is that Russia has not seemed to be able to coordinate and communicate effectively on the ground. At least not to our standards. I have seen videos of lone or double vehicles getting shot to ***** All alone. A lot of times now. It's bizarre. Russia has not prosecuted this in the way that anyone expected they should have been able to.
I could be wrong. I may very well be. I am just a dude sitting in a chair in Texas looking from the outside in. But I hope I am right to. This is just my very unexpert guess after absorbing all of this. We shall of course see in the end.
I actually appreciate you keeping me honest. I certainly strive to be.
The mistakes they made in 1941 are unbelievably bad. Stupidity on a mass scale- see Stalin's purges and political appointments to the officer class. Mistakes that would have doomed most nations. The only thing that saved them was the massive size of their nation and that fact Stalin had millions of bodies to throw into the path of Germany's blitzkreig. One thing about Russians they can bleed and come back for more. Its something ingrained in their makeup. Weird I know.
Russia could either throw in the towel early like they did in 1905 vs Japan or they will come back for more and more. Which Russia shows up. In 1905 the country was hit with the first shock wave of Revolution. The Tsar was already in trouble. Here, Russia is ruled by the grip of a tyrant that has proven to be shrewd and ruthless in much the same mold as Stalin. But unlike Stalin, a Georgian, BTW, Mother Russia's very existence is not on the line.
This last fact gives me hope. That the Russian people will not be so eager to bleed for Putin's cause of expanding the old Russian Empire. We will see. Especially given the fact Russia with an old declining population doesn't have that much blood to spill. Whichever the case its a Russian thing to start off poorly.
I don't believe that Russia can come back for more and more. The means to recover from the mistakes of 1941 were a large population, millions of square miles of space in which to maneuver, and strong allies contributing materiel. Russia doesn't have any of these resources in Ukraine. They aren't fighting to expel an invader but rather they are the invader.
I believe that August 1914 is a better template fo understanding the current situation than 1941. The catastrophic events of 1914 cast a die that deprived either side of strategic objectives but led to four years of death and stalemate. The resemblance of Russia's deeply flawed plan for the invasion of Ukraine is failing for the same reasons that Germany's Schlieffen Plan failed.
WW I lasted for four more years after August 1914. So why won't that be the case in Ukraine? A critical and perhaps decisive difference between Russia today and Germany in 1914 or the USSR in 1941 is that their economies run on fiat currency and the plug has been pulled. That means that Russia can only use up the resources that they already have and their population begins to starve very shortly. There has perhaps never been a case in history where an invading army will steal and horde the currency of the nation of they are seeking to destroy. The exchange rate of the Ukrainian Hryvnia to the Russian Rupee on Monday will be very interesting. The most effective lever against Putin will be the speed with which the nation's of the world can empty the bank accounts and pantries of Russians. Putin doesn't care about them personally but hunger and economic run in Russia affect him.
Russia has only one advantage in this war which is a ruthless leader with a nuclear deterrent to prevent the rest of the world from jumping in eagerly to fight on the side of Ukraine. By way of analogy, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a hostage taking (the extreme beating of an estranged spouse) in public on the world stage. Putin is bludgeoning Ukraine while threatening to kill the victim and anyone who intervenes.
The wild card is how crazy Putin really is. He has been careful never to display any measure of compassion, mercy, or sentimentality. He believes that those are behaviors unbecoming of a Russian which suggests that he just might be willing to burn it all down.
